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But it always confuses me when people call this a "miracle drug". Yes, it is a very good drug. It provides modest to very good results when paired with a statin for many people. But if it were a "miracle drug", (1) doctors would know about it and be prescribing it, and (2) a BP would have bought this ages ago (despite all the "issues").
In a meta-analysis of 27 randomized trials and 174,000 participants, for every ~40 mg/dL LDL-C reduction with statin therapy, the relative risk of major adverse cardiovascular events is reduced by ~20-25%, and all-cause mortality is reduced by 10%.
Huh?
Far bigger and more successful companies than this one have been sold. Activision Blizzard for one.
There's nothing needed to convince the management and BOD. The more important thing is convincing someone to make a bid at a fair price.
Staff costs, marketing costs, all go on the balance sheet as well.
Plenty to clean up on the cost side, building lease, staff and rep count, etc.
Some sheroes may need to be rightsized for example...
I agree.
With his low cost basis and the market being where it is, he only needs a 2 or 3 bagger to come good.
I see a sale in the future once they clean up the balance sheet and position the company a bit better. IF he increases his stake, his current holdings are probably still too low to drive any change.
I am still not 100% convinced Denner is in for the long haul.... yet.
If he increases his position to above 10%, I'll be convinced and add to my position.
I still think that the HFs will flip a sale around $9-12. Which isn't great for very long term holders but at least it's better than the $3.50 today. :(
I mean, what's your point - if you're asking whether federal employees only schemes like GEHA, pensions, the VA, are socialist?
Well they are. Socialism is basically state controlled everything.
And while you can claim there are upsides for federal employees, you can't ignore the downsides of lower remuneration, heavy bureaucracy, poor talent attraction and retention, waste and corruption associated with the government even in a highly capitalist society like the US.
Hell even bringing it back to AMRN, several government employees (FDA ADCOM rescinding SPA and Du), have issued flawed controversial rulings whether due to corruption or incompetence. Even if you agree with their outcomes, it can't be denied that the flaws writ large in those rulings probably stem from this talent dearth in the government.
Dr. Denner doesn't take the approach you're suggesting. He'll realign the BOD. Typically with a reduction in the number of members and the introduction of new blood which will make-up the majority.
It is possible that EU could be valued at $5-10 due to high multiples on peak sales for EU if an acquirer were interested in just EU (and/or some residual value on US).
The Ceo of NVS will look at the DCF for 10 yrs exclusivity in the EU
He knows he can make money / profit faster there ,then AMRN ever will .
He has existing Cardio drugs already in that market and a well established marketing infrastructure .
His costs to launch Vascepa in the EU will be substantially less then AMRN's ...and his profit margins a lot higher
Indeed it cannot be "switched" but clearly many MDs are STILL prescribing gL instead of V or even gV because its either easier or they don't believe in V.
What makes you think if gV disappeared and insurance cos put more hurdles on V that MDs wouldn't just switch prescriptions to gL instead. Either because they can't be arsed to do the paperwork or because "they're nearly the same so just get the generic".
Use of capital … familiarize yourselves with this
A deal with EU rights to NVS brings that return to us shareholders forward
A legal victory doesn't produce sales but it does shift gV sales to V AND it restores the logic and value of advertising and promotion that will grow sales.
I think my stance is because I do not believe MITIGATE will substantially diverge from RIT.
RIT study was extremely robust and outside of crackpots like Nissen have never been disputed.
In any event if MITIGATE shows similar results to RIT I also do not expect oppondnts to change their mind(s). Their opposition doesn't seem to be driven by scientific method, rather from other sources.
Sorry if it doesn't tally with anyone's projections.
But we've waited for 3 years now in anticipation of the "coming sales supercycle" and for whatever reason (covid, Incompetence, Du, insurers) it hasn't happened.
I'd rather be conservative and pleasantly surprised than optimistic and have hopes dashed when it comes to AMRN. Sadly.
Supply will continue to outstrip demand unless we have a "China surprise".
Even with a Marjac miracle it will take sometime for the US market to adjust. Assumung Hikma and Reddy dropped out of the market our supply will still be sufficient to cover all current US vascepa market and then some.
In other words, no supply issues expected from me, but no outsized growth projections either.
If the partnership in Canada goes well i could see Pfizer making a move before 2023.
Merck as well. Ultimately while MITIGATE could be a positive catalyst I do not think a buyout is dependent on the readout. NICE recommendation is probably of much higher importance than MITIGATE (unless incredible results surpassing R-IT)
Less than zero chance AMRN is on the list.
Biogen has no (nada, zero, zilch) drugs in the CVD space.
In the extremely unlikely event they were dumb enough to buy AMRN they would struggle to sell Vascepa due to a lack of experience and contacts in the space.
Merck and Pfizer, possibly Gilead are the most likely acquirers.
Lizzy,
Wold Olsen is a very tenured former employee of Merck and has been a director of GILD for over 10 years.
As to his compensation package.
If he is influential in a buyout over $10+++, even comp of >$1m a year is cheap.
If he does nothing or the SP is where it is in 24 months even comp of $10k annually is expensive.
It all depends on his contribution but in all honesty in this position of being at multi year SP lows, I'd rather Amarin overpay for good people than underpay for sh1tty contributors. Lord knows we've had enough of them in the past (Kennedy)
Also with so many Merck veterans (including this guy and Karim) plus him also being on Gild board....
This is great news for sure. No smoke without fire.
Hey I have no issue with kicking the old ones out.
I just am glad that the one they are adding in is strongly bullish.
As to Mr Sullivan. He is the only Irish on the BOD. Could be something to do with legal requirements of an Irish domiciled firm. But who knows. No issue kicking Joe Z out mind.
Our new board member:
https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2010/1/per-woldolsen-joins-gilead-sciences-board-of-directors
Still on the board 11 years later.
This is bullish.
Are you kidding me?
This was the single best news in the release.
This guy is a Merck veteran (40 years at Merck) and on the board of Gilead (GILD)
How are you upset at this?
What are you asking here
1. Why they give coupons? Or
2. How a coupon strategy for someone like Raf works?
1. Coupons are given like any marketing spend as a loss leader. Why does Uber give promo codes? Ya think they're a charity? Why does Walmart and Best Buy do sales? Why does Amazon do prime day. Best buy has clearance, drug companies do coupons.
Pretty self explanatory there, to grow the market, gain marketshare, make a buzz etc.
2. Why should someone like RAF get a coupon? I don't know his medical history. But in general:
A. Pharmas see a lifetime value in a customer like him. Now obviously he's a shareholder so even without a coupon he's gonna take V but assuming marketing are targeting a similar customer profile to get them used to taking V, after some time, coupon goes away, Raf or someone like him still buys V, ka ching.
B. Mistakes happen, loopholes happen. He didn't fit the customer profile but still got a coupon. Pharma marketing targeting ain't Uber (and even with an app, they suck) and being a small company we can't do an Apple (almost no discounts ever, even Pfizer gives coupons on some products)
C. Margins are so high (gross margin in excess of 70%) that even WITH coupons, amrn still makes money after reimbursement.
Whal
Used to work in pharma
A large portion of SG&A costs are coupons, promotional / free samples etc
Ad cost for Vascepa would be minimal beyond pamphlets placed at Cardio offices or other clinics (but the effectiveness of this is dreadful since covid).
Rep costs will be high but nowhere near as high as coupons
Can u please stop spreading this conspiracy theory cr*p.
I will not defend thero in any way.
But the man had ZERO authority to turn down an offer.
ESPECIALLY if BB a major shareholder and board member advised him to accept it.
Zero. Authority.
He was the CEO not a king or founder with special class voting shares... cmon people we're smarter than this...
It could happen
If he means a million pesos or cannuckistani dollars
600m burn a year
How much of that cash is going to be there bext year? A lot less
Are you high?
Just had a glance at their latest Earnings call
They had huge public pipeline failures plus yearly cash burn of 500-600m EUR
You're comparing a development stage bio with a company that has an approved drug?
Also what is GLPGs net debt?
I get the sense bios aren't an area you're cut out to invest in son
Why should the acquirer pump SP price up so they can pay more?
Have you ever bought a car and told the dealership, ya know what, it's too cheap. Let's tack on several grand on the sticker price and throw in some useless extra options?
Pumping SP, that's our management's job.
They can't because of the SP.
The board won't sell unless the offer meets their valuation.
BP won't raise their valuation lest they get slaughtered by their own shareholders paying $12-20 for a stock sitting at $4.30 a share.
Hence, impasse.
Nobody is defending management here.
Clearly, they have not done a good job.
However it's not as straightforward as scripts stagnant = sales doing nothing
Firing all 500 pax and hiring people to pressure insurers (which against is easier said than done, with no guarantee of success) is gonna tank scripts to under 50k really quick.
If you were upset before at flat 80k, you'd definitely be pissed with 50k or less. And no guarantee of coming back to 100k
Not saying the sales team isn't underperforming
But without them the scripts would actually decrease.
U don't understand. Insurers are tightening requirements and pushing patients to L or generic (or just stalling if no stock for gen V).
There is work being done, those guys are not just sitting around like what you're implying. It's not easy to get cardios or docs to fill up PA documentation, ralphey is already complaining about how difficult it is. And he's a shareholder.
USA is $0.6B because it's very uncertain jf we can keep our market much less grow share in the remaining 7-8 years of "exclusivity".
1. Sales team hasn't proven very capable.
2. Insurers tightening significantly and requiring more onerous terms and PAs
3. Generics will gradually secure more PIs unless settlement happens
I think there is scope to value US more but the company really needs to show a lot, and I can't overstate that enough, A LOT better results in terms of sales.
Otherwise an acquirer will press the price down like crazy. Remember we're being sold not on what the drug is worth, rather it's what best AMRN can do without a sale plus discount (short of bidding war) now.
I've told this board several times. You're talking about BIG PHARMA. They didn't become BIG pharma by being generous acquirers and foolish with their money. These are sharks who will nickel and dime you all day long and use every dirty trick in the book to make an extra penny.
No BP exec in history is paying $1 if they can get away with paying 99 cents.
IF supply is limited and really as difficult to grow as some surmise it's actually a strong plus point for V, especially in hands of BP.
It would give almost extra length to "exclusivity" with the struggle of generics to get sufficient API and hence branded sales would probably have a much slower drop-off compared to other drugs.
Contrast that with possibility of prolonged lifespan as generics struggle to secure API
Intact from the start or reversed by SC (burning thru some years of exclusivity after ding donging thru the legal system)?
Before: $4B probably ($2b x 2 peak sales)
Now: $1.5-2B max even if reversed
Don't forget a few things:
1. Even if reversed we burn thru years of exclusivity
2. With reversal we still need to resolve the insurance PA requirement issue
3. Even assuming we resolve 1) and 2) by end 2022 (amazing timeline really) AMRN had proven itself incapable of growing sales exponentially and the ramp up will be less steep than many expect
In the hands of BP (and here I agree with CBB), Vascepa would be worth 2X my valuation, easily.
Few questions to the valuation:
1. Considering US sales are flat at $600m why would we take $3B for EU?
With a lot longer ramp up in EU as well even considering $2-$3B sales I don't know if a 3X multiple makes sense considering long ramp up is slower exclusivity.
2. China pricing will be much lower than USor EU and possible generic threat much much sooner if it hits blockbuster status.
Our partner Eddingpharm is also a small player unlike Fosun so the likelihood of it going blockbuster is questionable
3. ROW with Japan out, probably only going yo see some benefit from Canada and ANZAC
My own estimate:
EU: $3B ($1.5b at 2x multiple)
China: $1B
USA: $0.6B (1x multiple of current sales)
ROW (Mainly Canada, ANZAC, Latam): $0.4B
We get $5B or around $11-12.
This conspiracy theory has been debunked so many times I don't even want to dignify it with a response.
Suffice to say that curing diseases = $$.
Curing deadly debilitating diseases = $$$$$$$$$
If there's one thing BP likes, it's $.
Has there ever been a partnership that worked out for a small bio?
And here i mean SALES partnership not research or collaborative licensing deal.