Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

1B was a number tossed out there by JT regarding inventory, but based on his demeanor, the DD some have unearthed on Nissau, and the diligent planning and execution by AMRN management so far, how could that not be a conservative value?

A clear and concise statement given by JT to a direct analyst question is "tossed out" now? Come on, be serious.

We all agree JT is a conservative guy, no argument there - but "conservative" means an underprojection of 10%, maybe at best 20%. No serious, competent, CEO has a forward looking lowball of 50% or 100%.

So make 2019 revenue $1.2B instead of $1B. That takes earnings to $660M. Still a far cry from some of the eye-watering prices thrown about here.

Some of the best-in-class pharma companies have very realistic PE ratios.

Novo Nordisk - ~25.
Regeneron - 27
Pfizer - 12
Sanofi - 27

Wildest I'd predict is somewhere around the 30-35 range like AZN, that may take us to $50.

Look at it this way - I rather be the investor with a long horizon and a PT of $40, that gets pleasantly surprised when we hit $60 than the guy who daydreams of $100 and is disappointed when we are only at $60 in Dec 2019.