FRD - my rough math indicates ~$1000/ton average for steel coil in Q4. They didn't disclose Q4 average per ton in 10-K (did a rough weighted average of the numbers available). That's higher than what I thought they'd realize this Q.

FRD - Valid point. I'm not bothered by it. They are spending $21 million on the new facility, so I'd rather they keep the money. Additionally, during the last cycle (summer/fall 2018), the primary increase in the dividend was announced at the end of August.

FRD - August futures were briefly over $1800/ton today:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/hrc-steel_quotes_globex.html#

Saw that market steel coil market could get even tighter if the auto industry is able to ramp up production (obviously a big if that's dependent on semiconductor shortage issues).

Obviously we know what this Q holds, but looking forward to ~August 15th Q1 release.

VTSI - sold half at 7.71. I'm sure they'll now have a PR AH today...

FRD - what's everyone's estimates here? I'm guessing around $7 trailing EPS by Q2 report this year, but maybe I'm way off.

Rough reasoning:
Q3 (Dec 31, 2020) EPS 0.30 (avg. $665 price/ton for steel coil)
Q4 (March 31, 2021) EPS 1.37-1.52 (est. avg. $900/ton)
Q1 (June 30, 2021) est. EPS ~2.25 (est. avg. $1200/ton)
Q2 (September 30, 2021) est. EPS ~3.00 (est. avg. $1400/ton)

There's really no precedent for these steel coil prices and I'm not sure what the contribution is from the new production line.

RFIL - You catch that AH updraft yesterday on the Q2 releases? Nice call on the pop after the report.

Where you live blindman?

The mystery of littlejohn continues

OT: When did you decide on writing posts using this technique/layout? I don't have the historical context here.

Seems like an incredible amount of effort for a message board. For an uncultivated fellow like myself, it's a beast to read.

re hedges: have a very small amount of FNGD

I'm more with hweb on this one. I think our memories are getting pretty short and it's easy to forget how lots of stocks with good growth would languish for months, even years, at low multiples.

A ton of instant gratification in this market...

2nd half of your post is perhaps the most eloquent description how I've felt since April/May of last year... totally agree with: It’s safe to say we are being enriched well beyond our efforts

GDLLF - bought back my trading shares today too at the equivalent of 2.06 USD. Decent news from them this morning as well:

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/06/03/geodrill-announces-renewal-of-normal-course-issuer-bid

JVA - ha, your call! gil's recent inflation article made me think I should be buying all the stamps I can find (see Exhibit 12):

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=164058864

BWL-A - ew, take under being attempted. Just greasy. Bailed out for a loss...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholder-alert-weisslaw-llp-investigates-153100744.html

JVA - added more at 5.70. Coffee futures remain strong. I could be wrong, but looks promising.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=KC

They report mid-June. Not expecting anything huge, but seems like a nice setup. And there's the CBD infused coffee hype that might be good for a pop.

From last earnings:
With the price of green coffee at three year highs, we are no longer experiencing the downward pricing pressure of the previous three years which saw coffee prices languish below a $1 per pound for extended periods of time,” continued Mr. Gordon. “Those low commodity prices had a negative impact on the margins of our sales of green unroasted beans as well as forcing us to discount prices of our private label and branded products to remain competitive in a low priced national retail coffee environment.

“Although sales decreased by approximately 6% compared to the first quarter of last year, we believe that as businesses continue to reopen, and the new customers we were able to attract over the last several months, we will begin to see a return of positive quarter over quarter revenue growth.

VRA - not sure if any follow on this board. They report on June 9th and the comp will be easy, which may boost the stock, but I think caution is warranted going into Q2.

They aren't seeing their usual spring surge in traffic:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0czscx

https://www.similarweb.com/website/verabradley.com/

My wife is a big fan, but according to her their quality/design has really tanked over the past 5 years or so. I still watch to see if there's a turnaround in the cards. I think the brand has a lot of value, but I haven't been convinced to do anything but trade it the last few years.

CTHR - yeah, I'm holding approx. 30% of my original position still. There are likely good acquisition targets out there in the Moissanite space. Their competitor, MoissaniteCo, probably wouldn't want to be acquired, but is the type of acquisition that would encourage me.

I can't help but remember this is the same company that got into the MLM side of things with LuluAvenue back in the day...I just don't trust them, even though I love the sector they're in.

CTHR - typical, insider buying makes less sense now. Figured he would have taken it easy if dilution was on the table.

ARTW - same, hold a position. While the overall backlog was down due to the completion of a large project in the modular building segment, their ag division is looking promising. From what I can tell, this really drives their GM% too.

From recent 10Q:

"The agricultural products segment order backlog was $5,456,000 as of April 5, 2021 compared to $2,699,000 in fiscal 2020." While we did report an 18.5% increase in sales in fiscal Q1 of 2021 we are still carrying a backlog that is twice the size of last year’s backlog. The increase is due to increased farmer spending as a result of financial assistance received under coronavirus relief packages."

Who knows though, they've serially disappointed over the years, just my opinion.

TAIT/ISIG - I'm surprised by the strength, especially with the overall market selling off earlier this week/last week.

Got lucky and was able to unload half of my ISIG junk today at 7.20. Now it can skyrocket. Insider continues to buy a bunch of ISIG...no clue why.

VTSI - Q1 results were good enough; I was surprised by the profit since revenue was lighter than I expected.

Conference call seemed upbeat, but that's typical of this CEO. Sounds like the primary use of the financing will be to focus on winning larger contracts. Crossing my fingers that there's no stupid acquisition.

Got a good laugh about this language from the CEO: "Demand for our solutions is reaching a fever pitch..."

We'll see!

ULBI - yes, great call, meant to buy some on your alert, but slipped my mind.

VTSI - I added back what I had sold at 5.40 earlier today, largely based on what's been going around on the VTSI board. Thanks for passing this along too!

FRD - DPW is shady, look at what happened when previous holdings were disclosed.

SSY, explodes ~13 days later after this release:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ault-global-holdings-buys-9-113000564.html

SSNT, explodes ~10 days later after this release:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ault-global-holdings-buys-9-113000706.html

There's numerous other examples of positions they've taken, some of which haven't run...so not always the case...

Not going to complain if FRD explodes, but good grief.

BWL-A - one of the few reopening plays that is still a decent amount below pre-pandemic prices. Not for everyone because of terrible liquidity...

I bowled here as a kid, so maybe I'm biased. Recent quarter was fine and balance sheet is solid. They'll probably reinstate dividend at some point this year. Upside is obviously not exciting, but still think there's 15% to 20% to be had. All my opinion.

LMB - very nice call, been eyeing LMB, HIL, and GENC, but quarters all stunk

VTSI - missed my bid at 5.07 yesterday by less than a cent. Agree that adding makes sense.

OBGRF - results were good, but not GDLLF good. Looks like OBGRF is trading at ~5x EBITDA, while GDLLF is trading at ~3.75x EBITDA (using current numbers, obviously EBITDA is improving, so on a forward basis it's lower)

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/05/12/orbit-garant-drilling-reports-fiscal-2021-third-quarter-financial-results

CGIFF - here's one, primarily Sulphur based. I've looked this over several times in the past, but never pulled the trigger. It seems to perform well during commodity cycles, but I'm not confident enough to buy.

FRD/steel - quite the trends, unprecedented for these search terms:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=steel%20pipe

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=steel%20coil

Can anyone speak to this? My guess is that this speaks to the shortage of steel?

Lumber was another interesting one to follow over the past year:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=lumber

GDLLF - great call, I'm bought some, surprised I could buy GEO.TO at 2.07 at the open (that was the previous 52 week high before this report).

Rethinking my sale of OBGRF after GDLLF's earnings...

TBT/TMV/PST, etc. - inverse bond ETFs, not sure what others think, but I have had a bit of these in the portfolio over the last 6 months. Overall pretty boring, but added to TMV today.

OBGRF - sold half today at 1.22 (meant to mention that I'm trading the CAD ticker OGD.TO). 25% to 30% pop in a few days is a bit much, but could run like FRACF. MJDLF earnings last week provided some context for the sector.

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/03/04/major-drilling-announces-results-for-q3-2021

ZEUS/FRD/SYNL - record earnings from ZEUS bodes well for FRD and SYNL. The tube and pipe business was surprisingly strong for ZEUS.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/olympic-steel-reports-first-quarter-103000683.html

While not nearly as good as FRD, I added more SYNL today at 9.24. It's not as pure a play on steel prices (they sell pipe and then have a chemicals business too), but they should see improving conditions. Additionally, they benefit from nickel prices going up. On last conference call, SYNL was asked about their competitor Olympic (ZEUS), so there are similarities in their business. Caution is somewhat warranted on SYNL, given the balance sheet being more of a mess and recent insider sale. All my opinion.

AWX - oops, was out all morning and it missed my sell order at 6.14. Will look to sell near EOD or in the schizo after hours period that typically happens

CTHR - yeah I wasn't too impressed either with the bottom line. I sold 2/3 of what I had from the 1.40 range after hours. Seems like upside will be limited here, but could be wrong.

AWX - sold half here with you, hard not to take some off the table

ISIG - another nice call hweb, got a good chuckle out of this one this morning. big loss even with 1-time PPP. May still linger in this one a bit longer.

WFSTF - Q1 EPS 0.14, some one times in there and EBITDA down a bit sequentially from Q4. Nevertheless, pretty positive overall. Company is now debt free too.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/western-announces-first-quarter-2021-results-849804626.html