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Hey, you can say all you want that they are not diluting, but that was a direct link to the SEC document they filed. They file one every couple weeks showing the increase.
Now read the latest info on the last couple finance deals. You will see that they have about $26-28 million in shares to convert at 0.014 per share. Works out to about 1.8-2.0 BILLION more shares.
THIS IS NOT WHAT I'M SAYING, IT IS DIRECTLY FROM THE SEC DOCUMENTS THE COMPANY FILED.
My guess is the close will be in the 0.026-0.028 range. Just a guess after looking at the chart.
Outstanding is going up about 20 Million per week. Here is the last reported (May 27th):
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110527/gnta.ob8-k.html
Just talking about the ASCO Abstract stuff.
But there is a pump going on somewhere. Somebody is buying all these shares. My guess is somebody is pumping it in a newsletter or something. I did a google search and got a coupe hits (do gnta asco). Not sure why the jump. But it has to be people who have not read the SEC stuff.
funny to read all the old stuff from 2009. Those shares are worth what today? 0.0001 or less.
It is going up because people are not doing the proper DD. They see the news, the abstracts, and think they have got to get in.
But when they did deeper....
For the record, I've been trading this for the past 3 years. Not in right now. Just too much of a risk. Would have been a nice trade today though!
A buyout of GNTA seems impossible. I can't imagine any Big Pharma company wanting to buy GNTA with mega noteholders on the balance sheet. That means if GNTA is going to hit pay dirt, it will have to do it on its own engine--which of course is possible.
I will need to read the SEC financials to make sure you are right on target. I do not mean to insult you when I say that. But people have been wrong before including myself!! If you are correct about the billion shares out there, then there is no hope short of a miracle to prevent GNTA from going below .01. Naturally, I hope you are wrong.
The reason it is down is because the noteholders have well over a billion in shares to convert. They have a choice, convert and sell, or let the company redeem the notes and make 12% interest.
So what you you do? Sell today and make over 100% profit or wait and get the 12%?
They will let this run a while and then dump into the volume. The noteholders make money on conversion, not on holding.
A partner can buyout the noteholders for about $30 million, convert to sub-penny, hold over a billion VOTING shares, then vote anything they want.
This is a good trade today. Nothing more.
Just remember who the Noteholders are.
Insiders=Noteholders (some of them anyway)
I think the best (and safest) thing to do is watch on the sidelines. We know there is lots of dilution to go. So I'll sit and watch. If they get through all this somehow, the price will be low and the conversions will be out of the way. If they don't make it...well who would not like to watch a train wreck?
For the record, I'm no longer trading this. Not even a good trade right now. Just too much risk.
The outstanding was up to 181 million last week. It is increasing about 10-20 million per week. They have a long way to go. They are not even 20% complete with the debt conversion.
They will reverse split when the outstanding gets over a billion. Now think about that if you are holding shares right now. From 200 million to 1 billion is cutting the value of you shares by a factor of 5.
Now, if you do the math on the conversion, you will find that at the current conversion rate, those 800 million shares will convert about 1/2 the debt. So even then they will only be about half way to the final conversion. But how fast can they do it? They run out of money in just a few months. Can they convert that fast? Did they count on the ASCO news to get them more than they will actually get?
My OPINION is they over shot the deal and won't be able to cover the entire debt. And that will be the end. If no new deal comes along they will be done. If a new deal comes it will totally rape the rest of the shareholders. All of you people who claim to have so much in this, your best bet is to call the company and be a part of the next deal. I'm sure if you got a spare million or two they will let you in. Otherwise- RUN!
Survival in a Phase 3, randomized, double-blind study of dacarbazine with or without oblimersen (Bcl-2 antisense) in patients with advanced melanoma and low-normal serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (AGENDA). Abstract #8531. Poster Session: Monday, June 6, 2011 8:00 AM-12:30 PM; Discussion Session 11:30 AM-12:30 PM.
this is the day !
First- New Drug Application. It is what you file to request FDA approval to sell a drug. Most are 100's of thousands of pages long. At least now they have electronic filing.
Second, I don't like giving direct investment advice. However, if I had any of this stock above the current price, I'd sell it, put the money away, and buy back when all the overhead is gone in a few years.
You can still trade it. But what are you going to make and at what risk? The stock is in a range now, from about 0.0145 to about 0.019. So if you bought at the low and sold at the high you can make half a cent on each trip. So for 100,000 you make $500 a trade, if you are lucky. Not worth the risk in my book.
Looks like it adjusted to just about where we thought it would be post-merger.
(Note: I got all this from Haiqi.)
Remember what I have been saying all along. You don't have to go long here until you see that that they are very close to the finish line and there is no more finance overhead.
Just keep watching (and trading, if that is your game). Then one day (my guess is in about 24-30 months) you will wake up and see that all the money deals are done, they will have done the last reverse split, the outstanding will be less than 100 million, and an NDA will be near. When you see that they have enough money in the bank to make it to approval, then that is the time to go long. Sure, you might have to pay 0.20 for a share, but the risk will be taken out of the stock.
If you bought 100,000 shares today, with all the stuff they are going to have to do in the future just to keep this alive, 3 years out that 100,000 shares will be about 10 shares. So if you pay $1700 for that 100K shares, what you will have left in the end will have cost you $170/share. And they will be worth about 0.20.
Don't go long. Trade it and wait. Or just wait.
I really hope all you people are just kidding. The stock is down over 50%.
Oh, yea, it is bouncing a bit. Dead cat bounce to suck in the last few people who still have faith to buy more.
Get a clue. This is going down. Big time.
But hey, it was a nice trade from this morning to now.
Well, that makes it...easier...I guess.
But they now have a problem. They have to wait 10 days to re-adjust it. Right now the finance people are making nothing on sold shares.
But in 10 days they will be in the middle of ASCO season. So any positive will be lost in the finance shuffle.
Would have been better if they could go into ASCO without these finance problems hanging over their heads. I doubt they could get enough for the company now to cover the debt.
It is already set. If it stays below the strike price for 10 days it readjusts to 10% of the 10 day average. So if the 10 day average is 0.014, it adjusts to 0.0014.
That would result in about 18 BILLION more shares being issued. They are only authorized 6 Billion. So they will reverse it.
Going to get ugly. May never get better.
Key price is now 0.0161. If price stays below that for 10 days then the finance deal resets to 0.00161 or lower.
That would mean there are not enough shares to cover debt. Maybe even with a 1:100 reverse. Going to get really ugly.
the last trial they had they narrowly missed the os endpoint, this time i expect them to get it right this time, i mean come on really, they got two years and if they cant do it this time i dont really know what to say then
You hit the nail on the head. In most cases, power companies are required to purchase power that is generated.
You can even set up a windmill in your back yard, use the power, and if you have excessive amounts, your local utility has to buy it from you. Not sure at what rate, but it happens all the time.
Here is the TVA link. but don't be fooled. They are not being nice. They are forced to do it. It is almost funny to read the web page. It looks like they are just doing it for the environment. Sure.
http://www.tva.gov/greenpowerswitch/partners/index.htm
But for the abstract they are presenting, It is most likely the results is come to positive, PHASE 3 and follow by FDA approval!
FMrick, when you say nothing new, you are far from being correct.
Each abstract is different from any abstract in the past.
# of patients is different, dosage is different, how and when the drug was administered is different, conclusions are different.
So far, so good with Tesetaxel.
Over 4000 abstracts were released today. Some are blockbuster:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/experimental-pfizer-drug-slows-kidney-cancer-in-large-trial.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/exelixis-pill-slows-prostate-cancer-and-ovarian-tumors-in-study.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nexavar-in-Combination-with-prnews-2976881887.html?x=0&.v=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dendreon-Announces-Clinical-prnews-512945554.html?x=0&.v=1
Boys, that what good results looks like...
Read through them all. All this information has been previously released in PRs though the years. Yes, this is the actual published data now. So, yes this is needed to proceed. But nothing new here.
The AGENDA data is the EXACT data from the failed trial. Those who said they would not publish negative results...you were wrong, here it is.
But as I pointed out earlier today, the OS data is not here. It is yet to come.
It actually says that April 15th is the date to withdraw or make changes to abstracts. Why does everyone say we are getting new info tomorrow???
Yea, but for the fact that they don't own the patent.
I'm sorry to sound rude, but how would anyone know?!?!?
If I knew the results were positive I'd be spending all my time here buying this stock.
all you can do is look at the past. The AGENDA trail FAILED. This is from their own press release:
Initial results did not show a statistically significant difference in early endpoints (overall response and progression-free survival).
Look, everybody knows I've been the biggest critic of the hype here. But as much as I hate the hype, even bad stocks have good days. I've always said that for now this is nothing but a good trade.
Will it get to 0.10? I think it should. If the news is really positive and the finance people let it run a little. Their hazard only comes in at a price higher, and it has to stay there for 10 days. So if I were them I'd let it run on news, then start selling after my gain is set. And if they are smart they will give the little guys a piece by staying out of the way for a while. Then they will short the crap out of it, force it below the call price for the debt, and convert and cover.
That is how they make money. So why not join in and play their game with them?
Nutriman24, there is the answer to the questions that have abounded here. How many people are in this trial and are taking oblimersen? This will be key to having results that are good enough to get this to market. Remember, half got oblimersen and half did not. Next, they only are looking at the low normal ldh people. That is the question. How many is that? From what I remember the low-normal group was about 20% of the total. So is that enough of a population for the FDA to approve?
Take the total population, cut in half (half got oblimersen, half did not) then take 20%. How many is that?
The answer?
Is that enough or will the FDA say "Great results, now duplicate them in a larger study"?
And this all assumes the results are positive.
But it is still a good trade going into the data. Buy in the 0.04s and dump at anything above 0.10 for a quick 150% gain.
About the shorting...
I'm not sure how the new shares are getting into the market, but that could be one source of the shorts.
Often, when there are people who have access to shares through debt conversion or options, people will short, then convert/exercise and use the new shares to cover the short. That way they only have to convert/exercise what they have already sold. When that happens they never get caught with shares.
Could be why the short is covered so fast. Sell short, convert/exercise, cover. If that is what is happening, then to me it means nothing. Just another way of converting shares to cash.
This is from the main AGENDA results:
Efficacy Analysis
The results do not show a statistically significant benefit for the co-primary endpoint of progression-free survival, nor for secondary endpoints of overall response or disease-control. All observed differences in currently available endpoints numerically favor the group that received Genasense®.
Overall Survival
Overall survival – the other co-primary endpoint in AGENDA – is too early to evaluate, as prospectively specified. An analysis for futility, which was defined as ‰¥ 50% conditional power to observe a statistically significant benefit of Genasense under the prospectively assumed hazard ratio of 0.69 and alpha level of 0.05, was conducted for the co-primary endpoint of overall survival. AGENDA has passed this futility analysis, and the Independent Data Monitoring Committee for AGENDA has recommended to the Company that the trial continue to completion. Pending availability of sufficient funds, Genta's Board of Directors has indicated that the trial should continue until the analysis for overall survival can be conducted.
The 315 was for the AGENDA trial that FAILED. That is the results they are going to release at ASCO.
The number you are interested is the number that was in the sub-group that they noticed the OS was higher. I think it was the low-medium ldh group. That is just a small segment of the AGENDA trial.
Really people, if you don't understand this stuff you should not be investing here.
It is not how many were involved in the trial. It is how many were involved in the sub-set of the sub-set that they data mined.
Look in the Agenda info from that trial, it is in there. Too much going on today with other stocks and I don't have time to do it. But it is there if you look.
I've been watching the blood bath for years....
That would just add to the rise in PPS if results are good, could be one hell of a short squeeze.
It takes real balls to short Genta with OS results right around the corner, I envy those guys in a way, even though I'm betting against them.
lots accumulation .044 all day long....might see spike ahead before conference call here....loooking good.
Want to know who is making money here? Go to this link:
INSIDER SELLING
Now, look at each Acquisition, them read up from there. Notice how he buys the shares for pennies and sells them as fast as he gets them? And this is the guy who should have the most inside information. He knows what is happening. If you could buy for a penny a share, and know that GOOD NEWS IS COMING! Would you sell right away?
'Ole Ray is raking it in while you suffer. He makes money and you keep buying his stock. He can't sell if there are no buyers. But he loves you for it!
A big buy for an institution would be $25 million or more. For that they could buy this company many times over.
The total dollar volume today was about $214,000. That is it. Fifty-eight percent of the volume was on the buy side. So that means the TOTAL of all the buys was in the range of $125,000.
Read the Alpha article. The stocks that are going to move because of ASCO have already done so. This is just hype here. Nothing more.
Buy this after all the debt has been converted, running the outstanding to a few billion shares, then they have done the next reverse (which has already been approved). That is the time to buy this, not now.
Institutions don't buy penny stocks. They don't. Stop saying they do unless you can PROVE they do. I can prove they don't. Just read their SEC filings and they shareholder literature. They have rules. They can't buy here. Show me one major institutional buyer that is allowed to buy a 4 cent stock. You can't because there are none.
SO STOP POSTING LIES!