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The market wants to price HCV as a depleting "asset" and I have no disagreement with that. The uncertainty in the actual size of that market is causing the volatility and I expect volatility to continue so there will be a chance for me to add again. Seems like NASH would be the next biggest value driver. What do you think of their prospects there in finding something superior to what ICPT and GILD are doing?
I sold today the added amount to get back to original weighting. I have no guesses as to whether this continues to go up to challenge prior highs without resting or whether it backs off significantly before the fundamentals clarify.
Any implications for 40 mg dosing?
A year ago, I would see a few S per day going around town. Today, I see them in the morning commute out of town. The Saudi's are trying to pump as hard as they can to reverse the momentum but the cat is out of the bag Serves them right for sticking it to us when oil prices were going through the roof and they refused to increase production beyond 10 MB/D. Now they are at 13 MB/D Phuckem.
This makes HES more interesting, to me anyway.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxonmobil-announces-significant-oil-discovery-171300792.html
How does your 20% prob compare to market priced prob? I am guessing 100% prob would be around $1k pps but it has a big error bar.
DOI is probably doing Shell a favor by limiting the water depth to 40 feet. That takes a lot of risk out of the equation and it should be a lot cheaper. My guess is that they will go ahead and drill if they get the permits. They won't have another Kulluk disaster.
Sloppy research - author failed to list Gilead's HCV drugs that blew away all those items combined.
Chanos shorting of RDS-BG and CVX. Interesting idea. I wonder what the time series look like for when the takeorpay contracts were signed. I know the original ones were probably were signed in the late 1990's. My guess is that the bulk of the contracts were signed prior to oil prices going crazy in 07-08.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/chanos-says-he-s-betting-against-shell-bg-group-because-of-lng
I see more and more Tesla's in our area. A year ago, I would see a few a day. Now it is all the time, commutes on highway, grocery stores, Costco, parents dropping kids off at school. It is becoming a highly utilized car. It is a wonderful car and drives like an easily handled rocket. A friend with a expired Volt lease just upgraded recently. I am also starting to see a few BMW I3's everyday. I have no idea how Tesla stock should be valued. AAPL has a much wider moat than TSLA IMO and other car makers will get serious about competing in EV's. If I were to buy an EV now, there is no other good choice besides TSLA and I would be proud to own the X.
Yes. Of course. The arm twisting is about getting a good deal for PTR and exclusion of competitive bidding from non-Chinese companies.
China arm twisting Shell/BG. My guess is that PTR will come away with more western Australian LNG assets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/shell-chief-visits-china-to-win-backing-for-70-billion-bg-deal
Sorry. I wasn't watching. I don't know if it was intentional or not. If it was, I don't understand the intent.
You must be referring to another pump-n-dump cycle around the quarterly reports since the company has not filed anything with the SEC and HRS doesn't happen till mid May.
BG was the aperitiv. The main course is coming up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/bp-readies-defenses-as-oil-industry-responds-to-shell-s-bg-raid
What happens with MYL's generic GA if TEVA takes over?
What happens with MYL's generic GA if TEVA takes over?
I was reading thestreet.com pieces regarding ADRO vs ADXS valuation and they mentioned that upfront payments for partnership is one of the factors. Not much discussion on technology other than that they are similar. If the market is efficient, then I have to guess that ADRO's tech and pipeline must be a lot better than ADXS. That and $100M in the bank would explain the difference in MC. Nevertheless, I don't think the insiders are stupid and leave $100M on the table so the value of ADRO must be inflated now.
China peak oil demand -
I am surprised that this hasn't gotten more play
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-01/china-s-fuel-demand-to-peak-sooner-than-oil-giants-expect
This goes along with my conjecture that "The majors will have to be very careful about how they spend their money and where they want to make it. The next up cycle could be the last good one."
How the Chinese companies behave during this down cycle and buy/not-buy will show how they really think in terms of peak demand. The shape of the peak will be dependent on how fast battery technology evolves.
I haven't done enough to give you even a wild guess. I guess a starting point would be RDS-BG. Take the number and divide it by P1+P2 reserves. Also take a look at BOPD and MMCF/D. The gas production is trickier as prices differ regionally.
Don't be bashful now. Let us know what you really think.
From Barron's writeup with regard to Citigroup analyst -
"Werber also doesn’t see the results as a true challenge to Harvoni, as this regimen too takes 12 weeks—an extra month than Gilead’s drug—but it could be competitive with Merck’s."
I am interested in your take.
I had a couple sentences about that and then overwrote it. This is what I am thinking for HES
They may go at a later round as a rollup for their Bakken and Ghana assets. If they go at an early round, Imo it will be a domestic player that wants international exposure (OXY for example) or one of the Chinese companies. Just my wild guess.
CVX has the biggest exposure to deepwater GOM already, IMO too high an exposure. CVX has big exposure to Canadian shale oil and low risk (not referring to political risk) exposure in Argentina. I am thinking CHK or one of the other as better fit there should they desire US shale.
Unlikely at this stage of the game unless it is a smaller domestic company that wants some international exposure. I added Tullow to my target list as its African projects will be attractive to many bigs. HES could be a nice target for one of the Chinese companies that want US shale oil exposure or it can go at a later stage after the elephants are bagged.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>updated<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Elephant hunters besides XOM, my guesses ;
1. cnpc
2. cvx
3. rds - BGgroup
4. sinopec
5. cnooc
6 tot
7. statoil, lukoil, repsol (longshots)
targets not mentioned in starting post
BP
ENI
COP
APA
APC
CHK
OXY
ECA
Woodside ASE:WPL
Tullow
SU
CNQ
IMO (XOM buy out the rest of it)
The Chinese will try but they may run into the same political issues that happened when cnooc tried to buy Unocal before cvx swooped in. For that reason they will go for smaller us targets and may go after large non-US targets.
Who would have the best fit with HES in you opinion. The only assets I like are Ghana and Bakken. Deepwater could drag for a long while.
Nice fit and I missed it completely. Should be able to cut a lot of overhead and be ready to get back in buying mode if prices stay low.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>updated<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Elephant hunters besides XOM, my guesses ;
1. cnpc
2. cvx
3. rds - BGgroup
4. sinopec
5. cnooc
6 tot
7. statoil, lukoil, repsol (longshots)
targets not mentioned in starting post
BP
ENI
COP
APA
APC
CHK
OXY
ECA
Woodside ASE:WPL
SU
CNQ
IMO (XOM buy out the rest of it)
The Chinese will try but they may run into the same political issues that happened when cnooc tried to buy Unocal before cvx swooped in. For that reason they will go for smaller us targets and may go after large non-US targets.
Seems that market is too small for BMY.
CHF phase 1b still quite a ways off. Q1 2017 according to presentation - slide 26. Mydicar phase II results coming up soon from CLDN. NVS should be getting clearance on their CHF drug this year. Anybody other meds?
http://www.uniqure.com/uploads/presentations/4-5%2020141201%20PMost%20FINAL.pdf
Elon Musk's own expectations were high prior to launch. My expectations were high too based upon the reviews in Hong Kong.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/elon-musk-tesla-is-unlikely-to-satisfy-demand-in-china-in-2014-cm328137
JACC reprint article presented older results on c-pulse implants below. Although no details have been given on current trial, it seems the interim analysis has similar stats as far as mortality rate at 12 months. The older results had one adjudicated device related death from sternum infection that extended to the implant. Death occurred during surgical repair attempt.
http://www.sunshineheart.com/storage/investornews/Feasibility%20Article%20in%20JACC_Dr.%20Abraham.pdf
The recent "investor presentation" slides indicated an installed base of 177 systems as of 3/14/15.
That's purely an economic decision as it is for whether SAG can make money. Oil sands is not just about oil prices.
https://www.energystar.gov/ia/business/industry/bnch_cost.pdf
Some cost data on Canadian oil sands in following article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-23/oil-sands-tested-as-today-s-rout-is-far-cry-from-wildcat-years
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/841815
This is exactly new news. Amio and Multaq are the most effective and also most toxic.
Not a surprise at all. It is cheaper to buy production on the stock exchange so why not. As for getting out of refining, I think it was the right decision at the time and will be for the long term. All you have to do is look at a map of Ghawar. If memory serves, it took less than 100 wells in the old days to produce the majority of Aramco output. The current well map looks like tapioca pudding. And whatever happen to the new Ghawar named Kashagan. The majors will have to be very careful about how they spend their money and where they want to make it. The next up cycle could be the last good one.
Do you know if the ratio of implant vs placebo is 1:1 in SSH c-pulse trial? TIA