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Couple of thousand for the type of patients that MDACC treated. Ironic in what the LuminIce drop outs for cohort 1 and 2 show is that patients and docs don't what to fool around with failing everything before going to AFM13 after failing chemo and CPI. So that implies a bigger market. Still to begin is the cd30+ PTCL cohort, that's the bigger market. Salvage cHL market is small but enough to get the company to self funding.
The FDA really wants the sickest patients that has are at the end of their ropes to be consistent with what MDACC did in AFM13-104 trial.
ie
1. fail chemo-checkpt
2. fail BV (Adcetris)
3. fail SCT if they got to that stage.
4. and no-ongoing infections
MDACC median prior lines were 7! I can't imagine that many lines of treatment for cancer. These folks have been through the a lot. And some of them dropped out because they can't withstand the commute to cancer center.
AFMD +20% on Q1 update. Have to listen to CC to get details on LuminIce drop outs - kinda hilarious but also sad that patients/docs are trying to hide treatment/infections history to get into the trial. Only to be rejected after more thorough background review and slowing down the enrollment process for everyone involved (something to do with re-slotting once someone drops out for whatever reason). 2 of these patients are now trying Acetris first and when/if PD on Acetris if they want to re-enroll in trial. AFM28 mono getting 33% CR at highest P1 dose is also interesting since r/r AML patients have low NK cell counts.
IMO EV is low for the pipeline with AA probably in the cards for LuminIce, and now with nsclc egfrMut and r/r AML also.
https://www.affimed.com/affimed-reports-first-quarter-2024-financial-results-business-update/
sfmd - q1 update scheduled for 6/12 pre-market. IMO they provide update on afm13-203 run in NK doses and folks will be interested in whether they can repeat the success of MDACC's afm13-104 and the more involved cbNK cell processing used by MDACC.
https://www.affimed.com/affimed-announces-oral-presentation-of-phase-1-2-data-from-afm13-in-combination-with-allogeneic-nk-cells-at-the-2023-ash-annual-meeting/
My understanding is that all were refractory to chemo + PD1,
AFMD - trading halted at +80%. Circuit breaker.
AFMD +60% and maybe higher on AFM24+Atezo combo data on EGFRwt and EGFRmut nsclc data on CPI r/r cohorts. ASCO abstract on wt cohort. Company held event Saturday that cover early mut cohort as well.
Lexus Rz is bloated, overpriced and low range relative to competition like Hyundai Genesis. TM needs to have dedicated EV skateboard platform and not jerry-rigged from ICE/HEV.
DoD - project Maven. Haven't heard much since PLTR took over the project from GOOG. $480M 5 yr contract awarded yesterday.
Eff XOM - They can pay the law firms and pound sand.
LLMs - Meta head of AI research talks about GIGO shortcomings and need for different approach to AGI.
https://www.ft.com/content/23fab126-f1d3-4add-a457-207a25730ad9
The "rare" minerals are not rare at all. Processing is the bottleneck. Current processes are emissions heavy and only countries (china) with low environmental/safety restrictions and enforcement have the processing capacity.
CVX/HES/XOM/CNOOC -
Interesting prism for institutional investors. WHO DO YOU TRUST? John Hess v. ISS XOM/CNOOC team now with Schumer. Can't believe any politician would interject their opinion in favor of a side that includes a Chinese STATE OWNED enterprise.
PLTR - more chugging along with some tailwinds from AI adoption. Positive sign from Cramer in bottom link - he won't give opinion on stock because of volatile earnings and CEO declines ad nauseum to go on his show. LOL
https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q1%202024%20Business%20Update.pdf
Robotaxis Observations -
Currently in SValley, what I am seeing in alpha testing are Nuro.ai Pruises and Toyota research Lexus. My feel is that TM is where Waymo was 2-3 yrs ago. Nuro is impressive if the engineers are truly hands-off. AMZN's Zoox still very much stuck from link below. TSLA was biggest Lidar module customer for Luminar in Q1 -
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/13/24155272/amazon-zoox-robotaxi-crash-motorcyclists-rear-end
TSLA - Looks like the CT commercial bust means higher production for semi trucks cia shifting of 4680 cells towards that market. Reviews from commercial trucking testing the semi has been good. I haven't seen any of them on the interstates yet. There are 140 of them. 100 used to transport stuff between Reno and Fremont (Tesla in house use/testing) and ~50 to others, vast majority for Pepsico.
TSLA - CT is a commercial bust. Less than 4000 sold in the first 5 months. Rivian trucks are a common sight in socal where I am now and also in tesla country in norcal.
TSLA - Grid storage is where more profitable growth will come IMO. Model 3 RWD lease deal is $299/mo with 3K down. Dang it's enticing.
https://www.tesla.com/model3/design?utm_locale=en-US&utm_campaign=sales&utm_content=m3_leaseextended&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_term=24q2_m3_lease_extended_batch2#overview
TSLA - FSD in China will not be competitive without Lidar. I think all the leading brands there have Lidar in their high end offerings. I am guessing that Lidar is coming to Tesla models and that 8/8 robotaxis announcement for US means it is coming to that as well. Toyota Research Lidar on their Lexus cuv is getting smaller and more integrated with every iteration but still a big contraption. IMO it's an OK look for a taxis service.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-clears-key-china-assisted-driving-hurdle-baidu-deal
MSFT - It's not just about .gov systems. You have utility companies involved. It's easy to blame mainframes and COBOL but the fact is that MSFT is the front end and edgeware for almost all these systems and "integration" and O/S substitutions have been happening since the 80s. There may never be a solution without turning off the power and junking entire systems and turning on an entire new system with new software. In the latter case, do you still go with MSFT? It's their turn to answer the question instead of IBM.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/fbi-says-chinese-hackers-preparing-attack-us-infrastructure-2024-04-18/
I am just guessing here. Compensation and annual bonus based upon TTM sales?
Based upon the way PACB shares acted, Q4 numbers were massaged heavily to hide the drop off in sales. Don't understand why ILMN wanted PACB years ago and why FTC objected. NP.
MSFT - It's not a good thing when a company charges extra for being careless and they feel they are too big to be fired.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-government-has-a-microsoft-problem/
TSLA - The writing was on the wall, the Great Wall (see linked Seagull review in prior post) . Musk accusing Reuters as lying. I doubt that Reuters is lying.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-abandons-plans-low-cost-ev-report-says
RE the study published June 2023 about Wales data set - from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-may-help-protect-against-161500715.html
>>>>>>>>>>>>
The study took advantage of something that happened in Britain in 2013, when the country’s National Health Service rolled out shingles vaccines for everyone born on or after Sept. 1, 1933, but completely excluded those born before that date. Pascal Geldsetzer, a professor of medicine at Stanford and one of the study’s authors, says this created a real-world experiment similar to the kind you get in a lab, where people of similar age—in some cases just a few days or weeks apart—were randomly assigned into two groups.
“We are able to get credibly a causal effect because we are able to exploit this really unique way that the shingles vaccine was rolled out in Britain in the National Health Service,” he tells MarketWatch. “It allows us to compare people who differ by just a week or two in their age. I think it’s a really neat, clean way to mimic what we would do in a clinical trial.”
Incidentally, these U.K. numbers might significantly understate any impact of shingles vaccines on future dementia, although we cannot know for sure. In most cases, those who got a vaccine only got one, rather than successive boosters. The follow-ups were only within seven years. And the study looked only at those who were given the vaccine in their 70s or older.
>>>>>>>>>>>
The GSK data set is pretty close to getting a randomized trial the way NHS in the UK implemented Shingrix vaccine eligibility. The difference in long term follow-up data is pretty stark.
VW Buzz - I think ultimately this will be vehicle for me, this is it if family member can be convinced that VW DNA has changed for good. VW software also has to pass the test given past issues.
https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-s-id-buzz-gtx-is-the-hot-electric-van-we-all-1851354750
TSLA - cybertruck. Got an email yesterday that I can configure a foundation series order since I am an early reservation holder. My expectation prior to that was that my order won't be ready to be configured until late 2025. I looked at what's on the configuration site and still not interested. Seems to me orders for the foundation series must be running low.
The implicit assumption in IIHS study is that a nanny state is required for the current state of technology for passenger cars. I agree with that assessment. If Google can scale their Waymo technology suite to passenger cars, then IIHS can consider shifting to a non-nanny state. I would probably be inclined to buy a vehicle that has the capability to shock your private parts as an option in ADAS settings. I find myself too complacent at times when using ADAS since they are getting better and better but still need attentiveness.
Everything including the acronyms. Seems like a word salad article. I have read about what Morris Chang said about the difficulties of building a chip plant here and that was informative.
BYD - Still not ready for prime time. WSJ reports a variety of quality issues the latest being mold. Hyundai when they first started in the US had terrible quality issues in their first decade before getting it right. IMO BYD going through those same growing pains but they are doing it at high volumes so mistakes are going to be costly.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/13/24099417/byds-electric-vehicles-are-moldier-than-usual
IIHS.org rating of ADAS systems. Toyota in the lead for passenger cars. Tesla FSD not doing so well.
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards
NKGN crashed below $1 since the last post then rocketed to 4 after alz.org abstract committee accepted their abstract for an upcoming Tau meeting. It's backing off the spike. Early small cohort data was gathered in Tijuana, Mx clinic but the committee is still interested enough to review the data/results. The data gathering has now moved to a US clinic based out of Glendale, CA. I closed out my position in the 3s a couple of days ago. There will be years of data gathering ahead.
https://alz.org/media/Documents/scientific-conferences/Tau-Agenda_Alzheimers-Association.pdf
IMO it looks like an open invitation for spaghetti codes. Probably a reflection of how they have done integration of codes via "catalogs". Software "catalogs" reminds me of IBM mainframe days with multiple volumes of telephone book size JCL binders.
BYD - Laying down the gauntlet in China. Price cut to $9700 today. Range ~100 miles. 75HP. Tesla Model 2? Forget about it, they will need a Model 1 or let somebody in China make one for them.
GM/Magna - I don't get how GM will ever get to the software centric vehicle with the following approach.
https://www.magna.com/stories/news-press-release/2024/general-motors--magna-and-wipro-team-up-to-develop-automotive-software-marketplace--'sdverse'
NVDA - Andrew Ng likes the chances of AMD (open source) and INTC somewhat in provide alternatives to NVDA proprietary OS. I guess the market heard the comments.