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Seems to me the the "hgh probability" is already priced in at an EV of $2B given the action in the overall biotech space. Option market is pricing in a one standard deviation uncertainty of $9 or so in either direction.
Botox for CABG patients stops AF -
See item one in link -
http://www.innovationsincrm.com/cardiac-rhythm-management/articles-2016/february/815-new-2015-discoveries-in-electrophysiology
The far bigger cost is the fed and state tax bills of nearly $200K and it is notable that he didn't sell any to offset the taxes owed upon exercise.
Impressive turn around today and not just in MNTA.
The futility of their r&d spending has been underestimated and it calls into question all of the assumptions that go into their business model.
I don't see that till the 6's.
It does read like a cap. They really haven't figured out how well their business model works (so far not so hot) and the company spends like drunken sailors.
LOL. The biotech space is littered with "buying opportunities". A year ago, it was littered with "selling opportunities" and few saw it that way. I have a feeling there will be blood on the streets before the biotech space is done being a "buying opportunity"
Amgen loses round 1 of Humira patent challenge -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-patent-office-rules-against-223055333.html
The recovery mechanisms are very different. The largest Iranian fields are gravity drainage. SA fields are waterfloods.
Last week while driving, PRI news program host commented that he had a conversation with a BMW exec in which the exec opined that he thinks that all cars will be electric by 2025. I haven't been able to find confirmation of this over the last several days. I wonder if the BMW exec made a mistake in blurting out what the company is actually planning in secret. There are several i3s in my town, they are fugly. Tesla S everywhere - guessing 10X what there were last year. Haven't seen a X yet.
It could be a lack of confidence on timing or it could be a sign of confidence that it will have little if any financial impact, or both.
Patients with ventricular arrhythmias do significantly better with ablations than with ICD implants. Problem is that most centers go with the ICD implant as the only option because they don't have the manual skills nor experience to do VT/PVC ablations. Even clinicians at high volume centers do not like doing these complex ablations because the procedure times range from 5-8 hours manually. If they have the stxs system, procedures are running 2-4 hours (skin to skin) past the learning curve so it is no big deal to offer the procedure with high success and low complication rates. Compared to mediocre success and high complication rates when done manually. Anyway, PVC, VT and post heart attack patients need this service and centers that want to offer this service will need to install the stxs system. The alternative would be to keep the patients in the dark and tell them ICD is their best option.
http://www.heartrhythmjournal.com/article/S1547-5271(15)01178-9/pdf
and a bunch of recent journaled articles show results consistent with the latest one above.
ADXS short % of float is 47%, much higher than ZIOP.
EVs vs internal combustion.
My old company looked at this issue, oil and gas price predictability, a long time ago for the NPC. We concluded that the only thing predictable was volatility. IE the sharper the rise, the further the subsequent fall and vice versa. There are fundamental limits to the fall or rise of course - the marginal cost of over or under production. As for geopolitical risk in Barron's article, who knows. The ME has pretty much blown up and it hasn't impacted supply. A decade ago, I thought west Africa is the tinder box and IMO that risk has receded. Venezuela has a lot of excess capacity if their politics revert away from communism. Now there are non ICE options and the cost of non ICE options come down 7%/yr.
For the folks looking at CLF, what about MSB as an alternative?
Sales are lacking and gross margin is single digits on sales, mostly on single use disposables no less. There are also 2 low end competitors that entered the field with systems that do the same procedures with no safety issues unlike hnsn. Check corindus and catheter-robotics.
LENS - it doesn't have clearance and distribution in big markets. Did they talk about the timing for additional markets? It looks like a product I could use if there is enough long term safety and efficacy data.
http://presbia.com/about-us/#finddoctor
IMO more bluffing. If he had said 1-2 instead of mentioning two dozen, I may have believed it. There is an outside chance that the Chinese will throw in a bid through Husky but I doubt it.
CFO risk management - he seems to be content to keep his long exposure under 90K shares. So far this year, he sold about 70K shares offset by 30K options. He started the year with around 125K shares.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001185034
CEO started the year with around 520K shares and currently at 545K shares plus 110K options.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001571211
Clay Chrisitansen's old model doesn't work well for the major disruptions happening now. He theory got disrupted by increasing complexity and decreasing technology costs.
https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation
I am surprised that the Cyprus "energy minister" has not heard of the ENI gas discovery offshore Egypt. He needs to look to the EU market instead.
CHRS has Humira and Enbrel FoBs in the pipeline in addition to Neulasta FoB. What fraction of their value derives from Neulasta FoB expectations?
http://investors.coherus.com/Mobile.view?c=253655&d=4&v=100
What are the WTI forecast range for the 2016 ratios and sensitivities? The sensitivities are company specific and probably explains the variation in the ratios.
He bought almost 70K shares through early exercise of options on 10/23.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177648/000090866215000319/xslF345X03/edgar.xml
Interesting legislation in EU regarding doctor and medical device companies. Seems that most devices get tested and cleared first in the EU prior to FDA submittal.
http://www.pcronline.com/eurointervention/ahead_of_print/201511-08/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=151120-+EIJ+-EEP+EUCOMED&utm_content=151120-+EIJ+-EEP+EUCOMED+CID_4d9072b02a76a52875375aa04e2392e2&utm_source=email&utm_term=This%20Expedited%20Editorial%20Publication
Long term contracts assumed an oil price equivalent of $100/barrel.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/fledgling-u-s-lng-exports-face-threat-of-china-becoming-seller
Analyst comments with regard to next gen HCV competition.
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/11/18/gilead-sciences-abbvie-merck-fail-to-mount-a-major-threat/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
yes, around $5 post split.
VT ablation post MI multicenter study
The study findings, which were recently published at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions, represent the most significant long-term outcomes to date with the Niobe system in VT and were considerably better than those in the manual catheter group.
“This study further supports the strength of the Niobe system in effectively finding and eliminating even the most difficult to treat arrhythmias,” said Andrea Natale, M.D., FACC, FHRS, Executive Medical Director of Texas Cardiac Arrhythmia Institute (TCAI) at St. David’s Medical Center. “Most notably, our findings revealed a substantially greater long-term success rate among the Niobe patient group – 81.2% compared to 69% for the manual catheter group – which we attribute to the system’s exceptional mapping capabilities and catheter tip control, enabling operators to accurately pinpoint, access and thoroughly ablate the affected scar area.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/multicenter-study-reveals-improved-long-140000833.html
Bloomberg thinks a 30% stock premium would have been more realistic given the respective contributions in production and cashflow. APA looks interesting assuming this is not over. It will take months to expose all the hunted.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-11/anadarko-s-failed-bid-for-apache-leaves-it-vulnerable
Nothing to hold us back from buying. I just added a little.
APA being hunted now according to Bloomberg.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1505967?query=TOC
More details on the 3 patients that had bradycardia in Table 1. What I found interesting is in Gilead's response to the communication is the reference to "symptomatic" bradycardia, I assume that means syncope. IMO there will be more coming because asymptomatic bradycardia can also present acute issues. Those taking beta blockers for heart rhythm issues are the most at risk.
"The model sucks."
The model doesn't take into account that branded companies will move fast enough to protect their franchise. Look at the ABBV IP protection barriers for Humira. It must have looked easy to penetrate at a distance. Even if it is penetrated, there will be multiple players. It seems only crumbs are left and even crumbs disappear in the case of Lovenox.
FDA inspections of China suppliers fit for Halloween season.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/fda-shows-up-a-man-runs-and-questions-emerge-on-china-s-drugs
Contraindication for patients on Amiodarone.
It is just math. Looks like he is paying the tax liability of exercise with cash and the fact that he is willing to do that indicates to me that he is extremely happy with the price of the shares that he is getting. Looks like around $400K cash outlay to cover the tax for nearly 70K shares. Good for him and a data point on his view of the stock price for us.