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I lament that I have had to restrict my participation on the board the past few weeks. I find myself embroiled in demands on my time such that, should I choose to ignore them, I would greatly regret the consequences. Let me just say that my in-box is on ‘high level’ with sirens screeching and lights flashing. This should all be resolved by next week (hoping).
Since I had some commute time this AM, I reviewed my post to ‘T’ from yesterday. I felt the need to clarify those remarks with a bit more detail. And how this helps the GSPE effort to drill the Tau.
As I stated, the House of Representatives initiates the legislation for the country. If Republicans win the House at the mid-terms, then they will control the legislative agenda to be considered by the House. This is where laws supporting drilling come in.
Further they could sponsor and pass legislation that would address many of the concerns from non-socialist citizens. This is a very big deal if we wish to preserve the country, our lifestyle, and our freedoms for our children and our old-age. I can not stress the importance of this.
Also, as I alluded to regarding the controlling of spending, much of the the funding for the more onerous programs could be stifled by simply denying the dollars to continue. This is another way to get rid of some groups and programs blocking the leasing, permits, or drilling in the GOM (Federal Lands).
It would be so wonderful to have a veto-proof Republican majority in Congress, because without that we will need to rely on Democrats to support and vote for the changes needed. Not a reliable plan.
But if the R’s had the votes to override a veto, then the power in the country would be returned to the elected representatives of the people, and not subject to the whims of a socialist dictator-in-chief and his cronies.
This is perhaps the most important consideration of all. Because if those in power continue on the current path of destabilizing the laws of the country and ignoring the will of the people, there will continue to be a decline in and deterioration of the public trust. Then an undesirable outcome is likely to follow. Some people are just more difficult to intimidate.
If we can have a fair election, it is better to address it at the ballot box, so that many of our cities do not end up looking like Beirut. Cooler heads must prevail. So yes, the election outcome matters to us all.
And they do not necessarily see it, but it matters even to the socialists. Remember the old lyrics “Whatcha gonna do, when they come for you”…. Not talking about the police. It is something to think about.
But politically the socialist liberals know that this is their last shot at permanent control for at least a generation. They will do, and are doing, everything they can regardless of laws or consequences. I do not really expect them to back down. It might get really nasty if they do not. I have no real sense of their level of desperation, but I am hoping that they can read the signs, and will only try a bluff or two. I am not convinced they totally understand.
The USA is not immune to the lessons of human history. We have already written much of it, but this next chapter is very soon upon us. We should not take it for granted or just hope for the best.
The stakes are too high.
Remember the liberal legacy. Fake news. Fake election. Next is fake renewable energy. And then fake money. And finally fake food, I hear.
Mrs. Smith
In my opinion, it is a complicated answer.
In a nutshell, two of the most important aspects of the House of Representatives is that all legislation (Bills) must originate there. More importantly, is that the House controls the purse strings. If they do not like the Department of Energy stance (EPA, DOI, DOJ, etc.), they can just cut the budget. And they can cut it a lot, forcing layoffs and stalling that agenda.
And that is exactly what we need to start with if we intend to get our country back to functioning in a more effective and efficient manner. We need a smaller, less centralized government.
If the Republicans get ‘veto proof’ majorities in both Houses of Congress, they will, in fact, be the power of the country able to override a president’s veto.
For the record, spec’s post 6842 is an accurate summation of the challenges facing oil and gas producers. Gulfslope Energy is presently stalled until the opportunities overcome these challenges.
I will not be able to comment on the 10-Q until I can review it in detail some time next week.
Mrs. Smith
https://ir.gulfslope.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001387131-22-008788/gspe-10q_063022.htm?
I will not have an opportunity to comment until later in the week.
Mrs. Smith
Thank you.
I wish they could afford me.
Mrs. Smith
Yes sir cheepo.
That is about the way it is. Please check back again about this same time next year. Perhaps by then there will be some clarity regarding the GSPE future.
In the meantime check out this article on offshore drilling.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Drilling-Is-Coming-Back-With-A-Bang.html
Mrs. Smith
I am impatient and eager,
so crank it up and get going with the V-ger.
If we have good luck,
maybe we can make a buck
Waiting with my spyglass,
to study V-ger’s first pass.
We will not know less than we know today,
and on this subject, that is all I have to say…
Mrs. Smith
10-Q in two weeks (before 5:30 p.m. ET, August 15th). SEC link in Gulfslope’s Intro.
Mrs. Smith
Okay. I admit it. The lackluster rhythm of the GSPE trade volume is causing me to doze off. But I plan to put my best effort forward and persevere.
Considering the lack of news coming from Gulfslope, I think we are more likely to get information by tracking news from Delek Group (i.e. drilling budget in financials, etc). They seem to be much more forthcoming with communications. Probably because they have so much activity going on. It is at least a small amount of stimulation.
Additionally, before Gulfslope could do anything with a Tau 2, they should need a new or revised exploration plan approved by the BOEM. I suspect that is in the works, but I cannot confirm.
I am thankful that Mr. Seitz had the forethought to request the extension through 2025 on the Tau lease G36121 while still drilling Tau 1. If he had waited until after the drilling ceased, there is a likelihood the request would have been denied. Small favors.
Let me know if I missed something.
Mrs. Smith
More Food for Thought…
Initially I was playing with this for fun and did not expect to post it. But it sort of grew on me, so I will share it with you. Kind comments appreciated.
Remember the article I recently posted where the author referenced AI and robotics while talking about evolution in the oil and gas industry? Well just for the sake of discussion, let us brainstorm about a future potential new drilling approach.
I am reminded of the past post where I mentioned about an unmanned rocket re-entering earth’s atmosphere to land on a barge in the ocean. Well, this is real world true (SpaceX). So, keeping that in mind, let us look at AI from another point of view.
Some companies have engineers that do research work with AI and robotics. They could be hoping to automate the drilling process. Sort of like the Managed Pressure Drilling software expanded to include other drilling functions, but with robots doing the actual ‘labor’ (roustabots instead of roustabouts?).
Why the interest? Ok, how about a lack of trained employees with the needed expertise that will work for long periods of times isolated in hostile environments. Remember many of the best drilling sites are in challenging locations; such as jungles, deserts, frozen tundra, offshore oceans, etc.
And how long does it take to train humans for the desired expertise. How do you train them? Where do you recruit them? What wages are paid? Employee turnover? Availability? You get the idea.
So, some programming. Redesign of rig lay-out and processes. Design of suitable robotics. Training of technical, maintenance, and support staff.
Do not think that Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and others are not working on it as well. Robots already build much of our cars, do many manufacturing jobs, etc.
And it will not be that far in the future until a Drilling Superintendent will be an engineer or engineering technician (electrical or computing) with programming and instrumentation knowledge to oversee the technical integrity of the computers and robots needed for the rig to continue functioning as programmed.
A side benefit is that if a catastrophic blow-out were to happen (technical failure?), no lives would be lost on the rig floor, only robots. And many fewer ‘people’ would be required to be on the drilling location. And even those would only be there as required, not full-time. Eventually service companies will be licensed to provide and maintain all these services, so fewer company employees overall.
Justifications are many. The payout for the investment might not take that long and then profitability will soar. And not only drilling personnel. Human Resources? Training? Sales? Accounting? Supervisors and Managers? Nope. None of the above. Payrolls would be significantly reduced. And bonus, no more retirement plans or health insurance costs to manage.
Losses due to poor decisions or poor performance are eliminated. Human error would be much less of a concern. Safety incidents are decreased. Better reliability is assured. Quality is improved. Efficiency is enhanced. Productivity is increased. Costs are reduced. Competitiveness is upgraded. Plus robots will not need to pass drug tests, lol.
Think about it. It is only like just another unmanned rocket landing on a barge in the ocean. It all sounds so technically fascinating, and I am told that it is inevitable. It is coming. Less than a generation away.
But I see it as a double-edged sword. What is to become of those of us that are not engineers or engineering technicians? Will there be jobs for us? How will a roustabout earn a living after losing his job to a robot? A farmer? A warehouse worker? A fast-food worker? All those supposed renewable energy jobs? Longshoremen? Bus drivers? Truck driver? Cabbie? Soldier? Pilot? Attorney? Doctor? Is anyone’s job spared?
What of those surging across our borders? Their jobs will be some of the first to go. Maybe we can follow them when they return. The poorer economies of their home countries will be slower to transition. So learn Spanish. “Si, bueno”.
In the meantime, to protect our children’s financial security, it may be wise to emphasize education in math, technologies, science, and engineering. As reassurance, I suspect that the elected leadership of our country, past, present, and future, will have all this figured out, covered, and under control so there are no concerns. Yes? Do you think those jobs are at risk? Doubtful.
There is another twist to the plot. Those same engineers working on AI say that their jobs will, at some point, be at risk also. From something called ‘machine learning’.
Long ago in a galaxy not that far away at all, I think I saw a movie about that.
Mrs. Smith
I just took a cursory look at the Gulfslope Energy Presentation from 2019. At that time their statements indicated they forecast that gas would comprise 23% of gross resources @ a value of $2.25 per mcf. That means that today’s price is more than 3x greater. Coincidentally the crude forecast in 2019 was @ $55/bbl. So today’s overall economics would be more than 2x greater than in 2019. But since then, one of the leases has expired and I do not know if that changes the target of a new drill well. Likely, not that much. As suspected, the economics are much more favorable at this time.
Mrs. Smith
The best energy policy for the USA…
The author of this article seems to be very knowledgeable regarding energy past and present, and has some sound opinions on what to expect for the future.
From his point of view AI, robotics, and ‘all of the above’ energy policies is the best path forward.
Interesting article in my opinion.
https://www.city-journal.org/what-should-bidens-energy-policy-be
Mrs. Smith
When it comes to ‘investing’, I was taught to focus on the fundamentals. Once the analysis is done, and the investment decisions are made, monitoring these fundamentals gives one the opportunity and insight to recognize if the game has changed, and when it is time to change directions, or at least, change tactics.
At some point the fundamentals can change for any of us. Our tolerance and patience can collapse from any number of reasons. Such as frustration, new opportunities, market conditions, or just lack of interest. But I recognize and respect the limits we all face as investors/traders. This is part of it and can happen to any of us at any time.
So put me in the category of those that found the posts from MktMvn to be both interesting and informative. I too will miss his contributions and technical insights. I wish him only the best. Perhaps he will return once the conditions for drilling improve. I choose to believe he will.
Over the last ten years global O&G E&P has declined, but Delek has been aggressively moving into the E&P energy sector.
So going back to 2018, and reading from the Delek Group website, gives us insight as to the state of mind and management vision for the company at that time.
Quoting:
“FOCUS on E&P & DIVESTMENT of NON-CORE ASSETS
With a focus on transitioning from a diversified conglomerate to become an E&P pure play, since 2014 we have been divesting the company’s non-core assets. To date, we have redeployed the USD 1.3 billion generated from these sales to reduce our leverage and increase our capital reserves, and now we are focused on divesting our last non-energy assets: Phoenix Holdings Ltd., an insurance company, and IDE Technologies, a water desalination company.”
And they did follow through with that vision. So today Delek is a prospering oil and gas energy company seeking global E&P opportunities.
In the most current Delek financials, there are no references that make drilling in the GOM an imminent priority, but the ability to drill at some future point is maintained.
Quoting from Delek Group’s annual financials released in March 2022:
“In the US Gulf of Mexico region, where the Tau oil asset is located, there has been extensive experience in exploration, development and production of oil and gas assets, and as a result, oil treatment and pipeline infrastructures are highly prevalent…. extensive use of existing infrastructures…. result in shorter development time of oil assets and less capital expenditure needed than in many other places worldwide.”
Evidently Delek management does still recognize the potential for the Tau drill well and has determined to keep the partnership with Gulfslope Energy alive.
To me it appears that the situation has evolved to the point where it has forced the stock’s trading appeal to ‘cool off’ somewhat, and the shareholders being put in the position of being investors awaiting the awakening of Delek management’s desire to develop the Tau.
Checking the crystal ball reveals images that the global sentiment in support of the New Liberal World Order’s desire to end fossil fuels is beginning to crumble. The focus moving forward is a return to the pursuit of oil and gas exploration. As spec pointed out in an earlier post, as these conditions continue to develop, the timeline will accelerate and the outlook will become sooner rather than later.
It is still early in the ‘new O&G energy renaissance’ but the trend seems to be that the world is waking up to the fact that renewables are not yet ready for prime time, and there must be determined drilling campaigns to provide billions of people the energy and ability to not only prosper but to survive. That is the most unwavering fundamental.
Part of that strategy will involve Gulfslope Energy and Delek drilling the Tau. For this reason I will continue to support GSPE stock…. At least until Delek throws in the towel and pulls the plug.
Mrs. Smith
Is it crying time again, or is it buying time again?
Reminds me of the old axiom “Do not drink and trade” or, was it “Do not trade and drink”? I cannot recall, but if Delek was to throw in the towel, mix me a highball…
Mrs. Smith
I hope that is the case.
Mrs. Smith
Gulfslope’s partner in the Tau prospect, Delek Group, has had it’s bond rating increased due to favorable earnings and paying down debt. Delek Group also owns 24% of Gulfslope’s stock and 75% of the Tau prospect. So it is good to know that they are in a stronger financial position.
Notable excerpts from the Globes’s article:
“… raising the rating was supported by Delek Group's outstandingly good financial positioning, which is improving.”
“The offering of Ithaca, Delek's North Sea oil and gas exploration and production unit, is expected to be at a valuation in the billions of dollars, and to generate high capital gains for Delek Group, but chiefly it will improve its liquidity.”
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-midroog-upgrades-delek-bond-rating-paving-way-for-ithaca-ipo-1001417832
Mrs. Smith
Yes, it looks like the global interest rates are going to undoubtedly trend upwards in the fight against ever higher inflation, which should cause the global economy to noticeably slow because it will be more expensive to do any financing.
But this will not mean the end of the world. The world will keep going. So I am thinking about how to best position for the turn around whether it comes sooner or later. Do you still see it as three steps in one-half the time? Curious.
I plan for purchases of more shares in a series of bids if I can find any sellers at the right volumes and the right prices. Also if XOM dips below $80, I plan to jump in and get more of that too. Not trying to catch a falling knife, just positioning for the future with natural resources. More speculating than trading I suppose.
I think I would rather have barrels than apples.
Inflation Documentation/Chart: http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2022/07/14/cataloguing-bidens-ineptitude-on-inflation/
Mrs. Smith
The Outlook For The Oil Market In 2023 - OPEC Featured Article, Released July 14, 2022
OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release, Paris, July 11, 2022: https://www.oecd.org/sdd/leading-indicators/composite-leading-indicators-cli-oecd-07-2022.pdf
FEATURED ARTICLE: The outlook for the oil market in 2023
World GDP growth in 2023 is forecast at 3.2%. This assumes that the ramifications of the pandemic, geo-political developments in Eastern Europe and global financial tightening amid rising inflation do not negatively impact the 2023 growth dynamic to a major degree. It also assumes that major economies revert back towards their growth potentials. However, downside risk exists. Global inflation continues to be a major concern, along with the consequence of further monetary tightening measures by key central banks. The continuation of the pandemic into 2023 is another risk that could curb growth depending on the extent of measures taken to reduce contagion. While labour markets are forecast to remain tight, supply chain bottlenecks may not be resolved in the short term and high debt levels across the globe may persist. In the OECD, GDP growth is expected at 2.1% in 2023, from 2.9% in 2022. In the non-OECD, 2023 GDP growth is forecast at 4.2%, compared to 3.9% in 2022.
Better-than-expected containment of COVID-19 and expected firm global economic growth are projected to support global oil demand in 2023, which is forecast to grow by 2.7mb/d y-o-y. Within the regions, OECD oil demand is forecast to rise by 0.6 mb/d and non-OECD oil demand is projected to show an increase of 2.1 mb/d, mostly in China and India. This is supported by a recovery in transportation fuels and firm industrial fuels demand, including petrochemical feedstock.
In terms of fuels, gasoline and diesel are expected to lead oil demand growth in 2023, on increasing mobility in major consuming countries, such as the US, China and India. Both on-road diesel, including trucking, as well as increasing industrial, construction and agricultural activities in OECD America, Europe and China will support diesel demand. Light distillates will be supported by capacity additions – NGL plants in the US, Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) plants in China, and steady petrochemical margins. Jet fuel will continue to recover, as domestic and international air travel pick up, but business travel is expected to continue to lag. Uncertainties remain, including COVID-19-related challenges, particularly in China, as well as geopolitical uncertainties and their impact on oil demand.
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.7 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, supported by stronger demand. Upstream investment in non-OPEC countries is expected at around $415 billion (bn), broadly the same level as in 2022 and 18% more than in 2021. However, this level is still only half of the $755 billion seen back in 2014. New production by projects sanctioned up to 2023 is forecast at around 19.7 mb/d, up by 10% compared to the 17.8 mb/d seen in 2022. Liquids production growth in the US is forecast at 1.1 mb/d, mainly from US Permian crude and non-conventional NGLs, as well as from the Gulf of Mexico. Oil production in Norway, Brazil, Guyana, Kazakhstan, and Argentina is forecast to increase through new field start-ups and ramp-ups of existing projects. Moreover, non-OPEC processing gains and OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 70 tb/d and 50 tb/d, respectively, y-o-y.
Looking ahead to 2023, strong world oil demand growth, along with the increase in non-OPEC supply, are forecast to lead to demand for OPEC crude to increase by 0.9 mb/d y-o-y to average 30.1 mb/d. Nevertheless, uncertainty to the forecast remain to the downside, with much depending on the course of the pandemic and related measures, global financial tightening in the light of growing inflation, and the resolution of the ongoing geo-political issues in Eastern Europe.
July 2022 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report “MOMR”, Released 7/14/2022
Note: To save you having to register to view the “MOMR” PDF I will list the highlights at this time. No registration required to view the “MOMR” Video.
7/2022 MOMR PDF: https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/res/pdf_delivery.php?secToken2=7e493734bd7c6da35990d49aafbe6784411f7c93
7/2022 MOMR Video: https://players.brightcove.net/34306109001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6309416563112
WTI $95.84/bbl - August Contract, 20:35 pm CDT 7/14/2022: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil spot prices rose in June, extending the previous month’s increase. Higher futures prices and strong physical crude market fundamentals drove the increase, amid higher crude demand from refiners and several supply disruptions. The OPEC Reference Basket rose $3.85, or 3.4%, to settle at $117.72/b. The ICE Brent front month increased by $5.54, or 4.9%, in June to average $117.50/b and NYMEX WTI rose by $5.08, or 4.6%, to average $114.34/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened by 46¢ to an average of $3.16/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – strengthened further in June and prompt time spreads moved into deeper backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers cut net long positions by nearly 11% in the two major futures contracts.
World Economy
World economic growth in 2022 remains broadly unchanged at 3.5%, while the initial forecast for 2023 expects global growth of 3.2%. US GDP growth for 2022 remains unchanged at 3.0%, followed by 2.1% growth in 2023. Euro-zone economic growth for 2022 is unchanged at 3.0%, while growth in 2023 is forecast at 2%. Japan is expected to growth by 1.7% in 2023, following growth of 1.6% in 2022, unchanged from the previous report. China’s 2022 growth remains at 5.1% and GDP growth in 2023 is seen slightly lower at 5%. India’s GDP growth remains at 7.1% in 2022 and is expected to grow by 6% in 2023. Brazil’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remained unchanged at 1.2%, increasing to 1.5% in 2023. For Russia, the 2022 GDP growth forecast is unchanged, showing a contraction of 6.0%, while growth is anticipated to recover to 1.2% in 2023. Consumption remains robust, especially in the advanced economies, with an expected continued recovery particularly in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activity, leisure and hospitality. However, significant downside risks exist, stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the continued pandemic, rising inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the US, the UK, Japan and the Euro-zone.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth in 2022 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment at 3.4 mb/d. Oil demand in the OECD is estimated to increase by 1.8 mb/d, while non-OECD is seen growing by 1.6 mb/d. Total oil demand is projected to average 100.3 mb/d. The first quarter of this year was revised higher, amid better-than-anticipated oil demand in the main OECD consuming countries. However, with the resurgence of COVID-19 in China and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, oil demand in 2Q22 is revised lower. For 2023, world oil demand growth is expected to reach 2.7 mb/d to average 103.0 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.6 mb/d and non-OECD growth forecast at 2.1 mb/d. Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improved geopolitical developments and containment of COVID-19 in China.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 remains broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, despite upward revisions to China and Canada, and is now expected to grow by 2.1 mb/d to average 65.7 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for the year are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while production is expected to decline mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand. In 2023, non-OPEC liquids production is projected to grow by 1.7 mb/d to average 67.4 mb/d. Liquids supply in the OECD is forecast to increase by 1.4 mb/d in 2023, while non-OECD is seen growing by 0.2 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 are expected to be the US, with growth of 1.1 mb/d, followed by Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. However, uncertainty regarding the operational aspects of US production and from ongoing geopolitical developments remains high. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.39 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.44 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 234 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.72 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs continued to increase in June, supported by stronger product fundamentals despite rising product output levels, as refiners continued to increase processing rates following peak maintenance season. Rising transport fuel requirements in line with seasonal trends led to robust gains at the top and middle sections of the barrel. Meanwhile, naphtha and fuel oil came under pressure due to subdued demand and unfavourable economics. Going forward, refinery intakes are expected to rise further to accommodate a seasonal pick up in fuel consumption and allow a much-needed stock build.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates in June recovered some of the losses seen the previous month. The tanker market continued to improve following the poor performance in 2021, although gains varied across sectors. Suezmax and Aframax markets have benefited from the rerouting of longstanding trade patterns resulting in longer voyages, while VLCCs have seen less momentum from these shifts, with lower flows on longer haul routes such as from the Americas to Asia. Suezmax rates rose 20% m-o-m and Aframax rates increased 11%, while VLCC rates were up 8% on average. Clean rates continued to see strong m-o-m growth, up 21% on average amid tight product markets and increased demand for longer haul routes.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
US crude imports remained broadly unchanged in June at 6.4 mb/d, while US crude exports slipped from the high levels seen the month before to average 3.4 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 10.8 mb/d in May, continuing to increase from the weak performance in February, with flows heading to inventories as refineries continued to cut runs. India’s crude imports fell back from an exceptional high the month before to average 4.6 mb/d in May, despite a surge in Russian inflows. Tanker tracking data shows India’s crude imports and product exports moving higher in June. Japan’s crude imports fell back from the previous month’s highs, averaging 2.6 mb/d in May. Recent estimates show OECD Europe’s imports strengthening in May and June, with increased y-o-y inflows from West Africa and the Middle East, partially offset by declines in North Africa.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary May data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks up 10.5 mb m-o-m. At 2,680 mb, inventories were 253 mb less than the same time a year ago, 312 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 276 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 10.1 mb m-o-m, while product stocks rose 20.6 mb over the same period. At 1,307 mb, OECD crude stocks were 103 mb below the same time a year ago, 176 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 177 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,373 mb, representing a deficit of 150 mb with the same time a year ago, 136 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 97 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell 0.7 days m-o-m in May to stand at 57.3 days. This is 7.0 days below May 2021 levels, 7.6 days less than the latest five-year average and 4.6 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.2 mb/d, which is around 1.1 mb/d higher than in 2021. Based on the initial forecasts for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply in 2023, demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 30.1 mb/d, 0.9 mb/d higher than the 2022 level.
Many good points in your post. I would not mind telling Joe to park Air Force 1. But something tells me that it would only be a waste of my time.
I do not know the exact nature of the game the liberal elites are playing, but I sort of expect that it will come down as mostly restrictions to what ‘freedoms’ that us little people will be allowed to keep.
Personal transportation might actually be something we are forced to forgo in favor of public mass transportation. Some of our wealthiest members may in fact be able to have EVs, but nothing near the numbers of vehicles currently in use. Big construction, commercial, agricultural, and transport equipment will still be diesel. Air travel will be restricted and expensive.
There will of course be no restrictions on the elites. They will still be encouraged to pursue those large SUVs, private jets, and whatever other toys strike their fancy. And bonus, there will not be any traffic snafus or parking hassles to complicate their day.
They will still take vacations at favored resorts, go to lavish parties, and dine in the best restaurants. While most of us will need to focus on just finding and affording the food we need. USSR of America.
OK. Maybe it is a bit far-fetched. But do not be surprised to see something similar come about. I just cannot envision the entitled ones being willing to give up anything they value or make any other sacrifices. I predict that the rest of us will not have any choice except to save the planet (for them). They will just price us out of it …..
Hopefully it is not too late to stop the new Liberal World Order, or the Great Reset, or whatever they are calling it today. Those who are against oil and the freedoms we take for granted today, just fail to properly imagine what the future might actually be like if these people are not stopped. I guess they trust that the elites are looking after their interests, and would never betray them just to live like royalty.
I see it as their self-interest vs ours. And I will vote against their vision beginning with the 2022 mid-term election.
Mrs. Smith
Probably just a pesky dirt bid.
Mrs. Smith
By coincidence, I was just reading about this.
Quote:
____________________________________________________________________
“One ground truth remains - abundant and inexpensive energy is directly correlated to quality of life, here and abroad.”
____________________________________________________________________
I decided to just link to this article by Andrea Widburg because she says it just right, and I will not be able to do it justice. I really appreciate her political insights and instincts. Be sure to watch the Tucker Carlson commentary if you have not already seen it.
This really distresses me. It is no wonder that Gulfslope is having trouble drilling the Tau 2 well. I cannot wait to see all this ended. People are starting to become more informed, and I believe that they will not tolerate being poor and starving.
I only hope we can change direction the easy way (voting). There is no one to bail us out. We will need to do it ourselves. LET’S GET BIDEN TO QUIT (LGBTQ)
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/07/tucker_carlsons_latest_on_green_energy_is_mandatory_viewing.html
Mrs. Smith
I get it. You are saying that Biden has already left the building (intellectually)? I can support that position.
The global momentum of that snowball rolling down the mountain will accelerate as it gains mass resulting in an increase in the speed of the changes.
Also know that I have your back. If counting beyond ‘10’ is necessary, I will step up to help with the counting. And, you can count on it.
We are already counting up to 20. Perhaps others will assist as well. I really appreciate teamwork.
I wonder if any of the useful idiots (useless?) in the administration are the least bit concerned with these potential developments. Maybe they will just be shocked and surprised when their bubble bursts. It happened to Hillary.
I think I see that light at the end of the tunnel.
Mrs. Smith
Please just keep those shoes on!
FYI, the API has a 10-Point Plan to rebuild US Energy. It covers a number of issues, but I would have preferred even more emphasis on drilling, especially in the GOM.
I just do not see how we can quickly take ‘giant’ strides until Biden leaves office. Perhaps if we get two-thirds of both houses of Congress, we can then override a veto. That would trim his feathers…
Also, the error in the API Monthly Statistical Report link, located in Gulfslope’s ‘Intro’ box, has been corrected.
API’s 10-point plan to restore U.S. energy leadership and help fulfill our great nation’s core promise.
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/10-in-2022/10-in-2022.pdf?la=en&hash=1373BED1E9E3A734782ACD984824E43D3C1EA33C
1. Lift Development Restrictions on Federal Lands and Waters - The Department of the Interior (DOI) should swiftly issue a 5-year program for the Outer Continental Shelf and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters.
2. Designate Critical Energy Infrastructure Projects - Congress should authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing and delivery of energy. These projects would be of such concern to the national interest that they would be entitled to undergo a streamlined review and permitting process not to exceed one year.
3. Fix the NEPA Permitting Process - The Biden administration should revise the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.
4. Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications - Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. DOE should approve pending LNG applications to enable the U.S. to deliver reliable energy to our allies abroad.
5. Unlock Investment and Access to Capital - The Securities and Exchange Commission should reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal and the Biden administration should ensure open capital markets where access is based upon individual company merit free from artificial constraints based on government-preferred investment allocations.
6. Dismantle Supply Chain Bottlenecks - President Biden should rescind steel tariffs that remain on imports from U.S. allies as steel is a critical component of energy production, transportation, and refining. The Biden administration should accelerate efforts to relieve port congestion so that equipment necessary for energy development can be delivered and installed.
7. Advance Lower Carbon Energy Tax Provisions - Congress should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.
8. Protect Competition in the Use of Refining Technologies - The Biden administration should ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.
9. End Permitting Obstruction on Natural Gas Projects - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.
10. Advance the Energy Workforce of the Future - Congress and the Biden administration should support the training and education of a diverse workforce through increased funding of work-based learning and advancement of STEM programs to nurture the skills necessary to construct and operate oil, natural gas and other energy infrastructure.
Mrs. Smith
I agree that inflation, energy, and security will drive the inevitable changes that will be behind the 2022 mid-term political upheaval (and beyond) to get the necessary correction of these policies started.
I see this coming as a three step process. First, the mid-terms result in the R’s gaining control of the House and the Senate. This will put a stop to the D’s harmful agenda.
Secondly, the current administration must be soundly defeated in the 2024 election and the R’s must continue to control the Congress. This will allow the changes needed for a pro-America agenda to be proposed and implemented.
Finally, we will need maybe 5 years to get it all sorted out, the drilling campaigns underway, and the economy moving along well enough that inflation is in check, gasoline is back below $3, the SPR is refilled, and the country’s future is bright again.
So not a quick fix, but in the meantime, I will see your link,
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/white-house-quietly-modeling-shock-200-oil
and, just for grins, raise you one…
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/07/06/electric_vehicles_are_a_tool_of_tyranny_841093.html
Mrs. Smith
You have convinced me. We will get back to you about the nomination for President at some point in the future. Maybe…..
Mrs. Smith
Well Mr. President, are you saying that you might add stress to a stress therapy meeting?
I see it as a novel approach to managing stress, where one would add stress just to show participants that they really were not all that stressed to begin with. In other words, they were better off before they attended the meeting?
You really caught me off guard with that one. LOL
Mrs. Smith
We should start a stress therapy group known as the GSPE Shareholders Club.
And our introduction greeting should start with something like this, “Hi, my name is Smith199 and I am a GSPE shareholder”.
I hope we do not become victims of the old adage “A fool and his money are soon parted”, ThomasTusser199.
Do we have a volunteer to be President of the Club? spec?
The question is, “to be, or not to be?”
Mrs. Smith
I cannot say with certainty it is a light, but looking into the tunnel today, I do see a shadow.
Agreed. There are many ways a deal could be structured. And if a drilling program for Gulfslope Energy is a by-product of such a deal, I would be for it.
Mrs. Smith
For the record, the best time to catch a typo is before you post. Some day I will learn this lesson. But not today.
Mrs. Smith
Also, a few comments on why I am not a fan of a Gulfslope acquisition. I have said it before and now looks like a good time to bring it up again.
Maybe if this had been accomplished a couple of years back, when marginal producing assets were something operators were anxious to divest away from, and before prices skyrocketed to the levels they are today, perhaps this was a viable strategy.
But for a company with limited liquid assets to be talking of purchasing producing GOM properties at today’s prices, just seems to me to be wishful thinking.
There are plenty of scenarios one might envision where something could be worked out. But without cash how will the seller benefit? Surely an all stock deal will not be the deciding factor. A partnership perhaps? I cannot wait to see how that deal is structured and how GSPE shareholders benefit. In my opinion, it would be more difficult to structure an asset purchase or a partnership than it would be to drill the Tau.
And, although the Gulfslope management team is top tier, it is not like the company itself is some industry renowned offshore operator steeped in efficient production methods for making profits, and blessed with an experienced team of well trained staff employees available for management to execute their business model.
No, they will start from scratch, likely using the same people and facilities the previous operator was struggling with. When prices stall or fall, or when one of the many inevitable operational issues is encountered, it is ‘red ink’ all the rest of the way from there.
The renown Gulfslope expertise is in discovering new reservoirs and reserves. Their success (or failure) will come from drilling not from operating marginal assets.
As Gulfslope Energy is now supposedly focused on purchasing assets at the top of the market price, put me on the record as saying that I am unimpressed, and I cannot pretend to support this deviation from the drilling goal and the reallocation of limited assets.
Hopefully this just a stall tactic to appease shareholders through this period of uncertainty. A best case scenario.
Yet, I am still optimistic that the management team will not neglect there drilling vision. As that is the pathway to Gulfslope’s success.
I guess we will need to wait and see what John Seitz finally decides to really do.
Mrs. Smith
Always open to hearing your opinions, so ‘thank you’ for the post.
Yes. WTI is bouncing like a Sri Lanka check, but holding at around $100 per barrel.
On another note, although Gulfslope’s lease G35244 was set to expire on June 30th, the BOEM is reflecting it as still ‘active’. One possible reason has to do with the fact that government tends to be slow and inefficient at times. Another is that the BOEM is currently in communication with Gulfslope on a possible lease extension.
Both of these scenarios have occurred in regard to Gulfslope’s leases in the past. Most likely it is due to inefficiency, but I will not be surprised if Gulfslope holds this lease when all the dust settles after the Biden administration crashes.
Thought provoking opinion. See link:
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/yes-you-can-blame-biden-for-high
Mrs. Smith
Mixed blessings. Total U.S. Rig count down 3 rigs, but the GOM rig count is plus 1.
You can find the Rig report links in Gulfslope’s Intro.
Mrs. Smith
The 30th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on June 30, 2022. In view of current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook, the OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil producing countries agreed to:
1. Reaffirm the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12th April 2020 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings including the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on the 18th July 2021.
2. Reconfirm the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th and 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production for the month of August 2022 by 0.648 mb/d.
OPEC Production Table: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/Production%20table.pdf
3. Reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and to the compensation mechanism. Compensation plans should be submitted in accordance with the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.
4. Hold the 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 3 August 2022.
I agree. But the EPA’s job is to enforce the regulations and laws passed by Congress. It’s job is not to legislate in place of Congress.
Part of our problem is unelected bureaucrats making law instead of the Congress, where “we the people” elected representatives.
Mrs. Smith
I am not an attorney and I do not play one on TV. I am also not a typist, especially on an IPhone.
I think the Supreme Court ruling will affect all agencies and regulations. So if a regulation was not voted on by Congress, it could turn out to be unlawful (EPA, DHS ect.). Looking for the lawsuits and the end of Big government.
Mrs. Smith
The plot thickens…. The Supreme Court just ruled against a government agencies authority to make regulations.
Basically what it means is that if government wants laws and regulations enacted those must be passed by the Congress, not turned over to the politically appointed head of an agency to have a regulation pushed into law (bypassing Congress and the Constitution).
This should mean that many of these regulations will not be lawful, and must be routed through Congress for votes before they can become lawful and enforced.
Maybe some of these more onerous regulations will quickly fade away. Usually the dems fight it in court as a delaying tactic. But the Supreme Court has already ruled, this is likely a waste of time since no lower court can overrule the Supreme Court.
This should put a kink in their plans to shut down the GOM and the Permian Basin. Please pass the popcorn…..
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2022/06/30/west-virginia-v-epa-opinion-n2609569
Mrs. Smith
Since we are not having enough fun with the mess in the GOM, the latest news is the current administration is trying to shut down the Permian Basin. That should really get the party going while we wait for the cops to arrive.
By the way, they are still begging OPEC for more production. Also, it appears they are willing to make a deal with the devil rather than promote U.S. production.
Over the past 12 months the administration has released 125 million barrels from our SPR. There are 100 million committed barrels yet to be released. There is talk of scheduling an additional SPR release beyond the already planned releases. I wonder what the plan is for when we run out of SPR barrels?
But still crude prices are over $100 and the ability to produce (spare capacity) is at an all time low. Who could have thought this? The mid-terms cannot come soon enough, and I am really looking forward to the 2024 election.
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/regulation/biden-considering-new-regulations-to-hamper-the-largest-oil-producing-area-in-the-world/
https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/O-BidenJoseph202206271464.pdf
Mrs. Smith
Reminder, the “Dallas Federal ‘Quarterly’ Energy Survey” (Second Quarter | June 23, 2022) will be released tomorrow. The report will include survey questions, price forecasts, business indicators, ect. You can find the link in Gulfslope’s Intro.
The Rig Count was up last Friday. The links pertaining to the Total U.S. and GOM rig count are included in the Intro also.
Mrs. Smith
‘Time for Biden to fire up the coal plants’ Opinion by Boston Herald editorial staff - June 21, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/editorial-time-for-biden-to-fire-up-the-coal-plants/ar-AAYIRms
A couple of excerpts:
“What was Biden’s backup plan as prices soared at the pump? Blame the oil companies, blame Putin, blame everyone but his own administration’s anti-fossil fuel agenda.”
“Now he is “considering” a federal gas tax holiday, which would knock 18 cents a gallon off the pump price. That would save the average driver about $3 per fill up. With a full tank costing about $70, that is so inadequate an assist to American consumers as to border on insult.”
“This has the makings of a long, hot, expensive summer. Biden has the chance to do something practical to alleviate some of our energy problems. The risk of doing nothing is too great.”
Mrs. Smith