More Food for Thought…
Initially I was playing with this for fun and did not expect to post it. But it sort of grew on me, so I will share it with you. Kind comments appreciated.
Remember the article I recently posted where the author referenced AI and robotics while talking about evolution in the oil and gas industry? Well just for the sake of discussion, let us brainstorm about a future potential new drilling approach.
I am reminded of the past post where I mentioned about an unmanned rocket re-entering earth’s atmosphere to land on a barge in the ocean. Well, this is real world true (SpaceX). So, keeping that in mind, let us look at AI from another point of view.
Some companies have engineers that do research work with AI and robotics. They could be hoping to automate the drilling process. Sort of like the Managed Pressure Drilling software expanded to include other drilling functions, but with robots doing the actual ‘labor’ (roustabots instead of roustabouts?).
Why the interest? Ok, how about a lack of trained employees with the needed expertise that will work for long periods of times isolated in hostile environments. Remember many of the best drilling sites are in challenging locations; such as jungles, deserts, frozen tundra, offshore oceans, etc.
And how long does it take to train humans for the desired expertise. How do you train them? Where do you recruit them? What wages are paid? Employee turnover? Availability? You get the idea.
So, some programming. Redesign of rig lay-out and processes. Design of suitable robotics. Training of technical, maintenance, and support staff.
Do not think that Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and others are not working on it as well. Robots already build much of our cars, do many manufacturing jobs, etc.
And it will not be that far in the future until a Drilling Superintendent will be an engineer or engineering technician (electrical or computing) with programming and instrumentation knowledge to oversee the technical integrity of the computers and robots needed for the rig to continue functioning as programmed.
A side benefit is that if a catastrophic blow-out were to happen (technical failure?), no lives would be lost on the rig floor, only robots. And many fewer ‘people’ would be required to be on the drilling location. And even those would only be there as required, not full-time. Eventually service companies will be licensed to provide and maintain all these services, so fewer company employees overall.
Justifications are many. The payout for the investment might not take that long and then profitability will soar. And not only drilling personnel. Human Resources? Training? Sales? Accounting? Supervisors and Managers? Nope. None of the above. Payrolls would be significantly reduced. And bonus, no more retirement plans or health insurance costs to manage.
Losses due to poor decisions or poor performance are eliminated. Human error would be much less of a concern. Safety incidents are decreased. Better reliability is assured. Quality is improved. Efficiency is enhanced. Productivity is increased. Costs are reduced. Competitiveness is upgraded. Plus robots will not need to pass drug tests, lol.
Think about it. It is only like just another unmanned rocket landing on a barge in the ocean. It all sounds so technically fascinating, and I am told that it is inevitable. It is coming. Less than a generation away.
But I see it as a double-edged sword. What is to become of those of us that are not engineers or engineering technicians? Will there be jobs for us? How will a roustabout earn a living after losing his job to a robot? A farmer? A warehouse worker? A fast-food worker? All those supposed renewable energy jobs? Longshoremen? Bus drivers? Truck driver? Cabbie? Soldier? Pilot? Attorney? Doctor? Is anyone’s job spared?
What of those surging across our borders? Their jobs will be some of the first to go. Maybe we can follow them when they return. The poorer economies of their home countries will be slower to transition. So learn Spanish. “Si, bueno”.
In the meantime, to protect our children’s financial security, it may be wise to emphasize education in math, technologies, science, and engineering. As reassurance, I suspect that the elected leadership of our country, past, present, and future, will have all this figured out, covered, and under control so there are no concerns. Yes? Do you think those jobs are at risk? Doubtful.
There is another twist to the plot. Those same engineers working on AI say that their jobs will, at some point, be at risk also. From something called ‘machine learning’.
Long ago in a galaxy not that far away at all, I think I saw a movie about that.
Mrs. Smith
