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Amazed that there is no following here. ÀI is big and there guys are successfully penetrating China's biggest companies and financial institutions. And this is an American company, not a Chinese company, CEO is American. Best success so far in p!aying the waves but uptrend now in place at least through this week. Could get bought out for multiples based on the Chinese success alone. Great call in the 8s.
Personal opinion only, I do not like the "fasten your seatbelt" talk, it sounds carny, I'd rather they just stick to their knitting and talk about how the technology works and what it will mean throughout the industries it will impact.
Pitcook, about yesterday's trading. There are some whose expectations are for short term accomplishments that drive this through the roof. The message from Lebby is that this remains a work in progress. There were no dates specifying when products would be market ready, what that market is and how much of that market can belong to LWLG. Legitimate expectation of revenues, or partnerships, or other financial events remain at arm's length. Those are drivers of shareholder value.
This is not bad, it is what a small disruptive developmental company is. When a modulator is placed into use and is measured and validated and is found to be highly efficient in performance and cost, deals will come.
Yesterday's message did not convey that happening in the near term, so some opted out. Per my post yesterday, this stock is not for the impatient or the faint of heart. There will be many bumps in the road, but the reward could be significant, just not likely tomorrow.
Anyone that thinks this is a get rich quick stock is fooling themselves. There are plenty more hurdles along the way.
That being said, if you want to take a shot at being ahead of the data/comm tidal wave and you don't need a quick return this is a great stock to look at for a 5 year plan. That's not to say it may not double or more in 12 months, it absolutely could. But it may also take longer. Being a disrupter brings many challenges.
Bottom line, this stock definitely has potential to be a billion dollar plus company. A billion is about $14 per share. It could also be a $10 billion plus company in the next 5 years.
My advice, own some, tuck it away and forget this day to day talk of shorts and painted tape. If it happens, none of that will matter. Lots of other things to play day to day, this is not a day trader.
Lebby is a man with a big ego, lots of pride. He wants to be recognized for being something special in the 21st century and has picked Lightwave Logic as his medium. Relax and enjoy, grab some more If the opportunity presents, but don't be greedy, don't get over your skis, it won't take much if they succeed.
Enjoy the holiday season, eat, drink and be merry.
Looks like 2018 will be dedicated to developing a product roadmap, hopefully with a partner.
Hey Proto, terrible timing in my opinion. I'm looking forward to week of January 8, and maybe 100g as the topic. Best to you.
It's December, nothing happens. Enjoy the holidays and look forward to 2018.
Yes, because banks and the governments they control will not sit idly by and get wiped from significance.
Expect financial institutions to roll out their own digital currency, expect govts to attack free financial markets and expect old money to win in the end.
But it is fun to dream.
Well said Rambos, the bottom line is, when the tech is proven via alliances or tech journal validation leading to such, the resultant frenzy will drive the share price and short interest will evaporate, and reappear at much higher levels.
Building out cash position seems like a deliberate move to clear the runway and focus on bringing products to fruition. And in any negotiations, they proceed from a solid financial position. Now, if we see insiders buying in the open market....
There are many out there proclaiming their forthcoming plans to overtake the industry with new technologies. So investors are cautious because disruption is anticipated, but no one has taken a decisive and demonstrable lead just yet. Prototype it, test, measure, validate it's performance and more importantly, the demand for that device and how easily it can be introduced into the ecosystem. If that all checks out, scale it commercially and be prepared for lots of trees to fall in your path to disrupt, unless you are lucky enough to draw in big brothers to accelerate development and pave the way. IP protection is paramount.
Interesting info on 400g, one wonders what eyes might be opened when LWLG announces 100g capabilities. As of now the physics are making 400g too challenging, instability and heat among the big issues.
https://www.fibereality.com/blog/finisaroclaro-nearsighted-beyond-4x50g
From the blog:
As with fibeReality, both Finisar and Oclaro have problems foreseeing 400GbE in any meaningful way in the anticipatable time ahead. While each is more than glad to mention development efforts in this direction, their powerful statements included in a couple of recent articles on Gazettabyte cannot be dismissed. An executive from Finisar said, “There is probably more technical risk in 400 gigabits than any of the historical data-rate jumps we have seen.” The Chief Commercial Officer from Oclaro said, “The industry really wants four channels. When you use more lasers, you are adding more cost." In addition, with the expectation of NG-PON2 becoming the de facto standard for at least many large portions of the globe, 25G will even have longer legs. Any vendor that can produce a low-cost 25G laser will be a big winner in the future optical access space. All in all, it is not even that easy to accurately predict the arrival of just 200GbE.
"Dr. Lebby will show how polymer based PICs have the potential to scale to 400Gbps and 800Gbps for data center applications"
Has anyone even begun to mention 800Gbps except to say it's way off in the future? That alone will open some eyes wide.
But please hold off on the Google, Facebook talk. They would not even look at this as an investment until a proven, scalable commercially proven device is available and fully tested. It is not their business. The folks who would scramble would be current device manufacturers and technology companies who cannot afford to miss out.
This would be better for LWLG as they are in a position of strength (with a proven device/ technology) and these potential partners have the capability to accelerate this to market. So while the traffic drivers may want this, they would do it through proven suppliers. Better for them and for us.
LWLG doing this on their own is fraught with obstacles; capital, supply chain, distribution, resources, not to mention the lengths to which companies with billions at stake would go to impede progress. A big brother or two resolves many of these issues.
Interesting Steve, although the dielectric material/substance I noted appears to be readily available while these seem to be developmental. Still trying to track that down. Regardless, I'm sure Lebby is quite aware of these, do you know if the ultrathin tunneling polymers are comparable in properties and applications to graphene tubes? That technology seems to remain years away, but I am way out of my depth here. Thanks .
Thanks Dutch, I recall reading this article when it came out and thought about how 'dialed in' LWLG is. The caliber of talented professionals on board surely points to a bright future.
Thanks F2, not worried, just curious.
Here's a piece on another company attempting to enter similar space to LWLG. Please note the second sentence in particular.
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Xxxx plans to introduce AWG (arrayed waveguide) mux and de-mux (mux/de-mux) passive device. This component is now in the last phases of alpha design and set for engineering samples at the XXXX fabrication facility through the use of dielectric material (the substance specifications are being closely held, and there appear to be no supply constraints). The component is a key ingredient necessary in using four 25G lasers combined for full 100G transmission speeds, per optical networking and transmissions standards.
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I can say that this inventor has close ties to Lebby. They describe a dielectric material, a 'key ingredient', and further mention no supply constraints, so it is not proprietary to xxxx, it is being supplied externally. Any chance thus is a collaboration? Thoughts?
The short positions can provide a bigger investor with leverage in many ways and can be used strategically to acquire a much larger long position. Or provide tax season gain/loss flexibility. Or to thwart a runaway train.
What if a short also have a long position that is 2 to 3x their short? Buying back during a run up gasses the fire and can increase their overall profits, it also provides an artificial run up that they can again short when they clean out their inventory. Many ways to play. I think focussing solely on their panicked exit as the only path they have is short sighted. These guys almost always give themselves many outs.
Focus on the tech, the progress and most importantly, on monetization. Many of us agree that product commercialization is the most likely point where this occurs, but preemptory engagement with a big player becomes far more likely and lucrative at 100g, as FOMO kicks in.
I don't mind the silence these days, here's a thought:
28g was proof of concept
50g is proof of scalability
100g will be proof of dominance
I think they are pushing full throttle to achieve that, and would guess that more than a few are watching very closely. When (if) that is achieved, on a shoestring budget at that, the industry's roadmaps all get re-drawn for the next decade, using LWLG's technology's "ink".
I agree Gates, my unknown is, when will they have that demonstrable device that will allow potential suitors to view the performance of this technology? To LWLG's benefit, epitaxial growth complexities don't appear to be a factor. But it does seem that the 'spin on' technology discussed here is being replaced with components and devices such as the modulators. So the idea of licensing the technology is not as much at the forefront as the cycle of device development (prototype, test, validate, prove mass production and again test, supply chain etc.). Completion of each stage brings a multiple to the value and each has a time interval. Hopefully, they decide to partner or sell at a point where the time value is at its optimal point. For me that is at the point of validation because I don't see commercialization as an obstacle for a resource rich suitor.
I want to see a detailed product roadmap, when that can be shown, we will begin to have an ability to estimate a value based on addressable markets, more importantly, suitors will be able to see the cost of NOT having access to the technology.
I don't see this as a get rich quick scenario. Please remember what is at stake for these data centers. First and foremost, this technology must be bulletproof in reliability. Active testing will need to be gruelling, extensive, encompassing. Components sell at a fraction of their real value, and companies are reluctant to "marry" someone else's components to their tech unless they can get it on the cheap, which is why an integrated LWLG device (transceiver) is ultimately desirable.
No one is going to offer hundreds of millions, let alone billions, until the proof is commercially replicated. Now, some of this may be underway already as suggested by a packaging partner, but it needs to happen. Those $30 to $40 days are still in the distance, but if they can bring a single integrated device to market that proves the technology, and it exceeds in energy, cost, form factor, etc, they can become a billion+ company. And if they can then show a 3 year roadmap to several other devices and applications with broader utilization, 11 digit market cap then becomes viable.
I'd rather see a steady climb upward, get that first commercial device into use, add a NASDAQ listing and watch the climb accelerate as acknowledgement permeates the tech world.
The reality is that these OTC markets are allowed to function with virtually no protection for small investors. Market makers can easily manipulate bid/ask due to lower volumes and always have the full order book available to know when the can squeeze down to a trigger point and grab up cheap shares, then return the share price to a point above their purchase price. Hedgies can do it and make millions, plus pay a max tax rate of 20%.
They need not do any DD, they need to know nothing about a stock but the order book. Algos spit out the most vulnerable market prices and the selling kicks in, sell a few thousand, trigger a huge stop loss, gobble it all up, on to the next opportunity.
There is not a breath of interest in what a company does, it's all about making money today. Until regs balance the playing field small investors will get played. And small investors have no lobbyists and no organized opposition, so we are always prey. Act accordingly.
Proto, your reference to comparble market cap is spot on, but I won't discuss POET here. My point is simply that smart money is just that, and when it starts to come in, not traders, but investors, we will know we are on our way. I agree that we are sitting at a low valuation relative to the level of development, but ultimately it's about what the market believes.
One of the great things about product development is that it often opens new doors and previously unseen applications as well as defining new properties not seen or anticipated earlier. I think these guys are smart enough to know whether and when optimal value comes from proprietary management of technology or from added resources via co-development. For my money, a limited (single product or application) partnership would be an ideal first step in terms of validation and for LWLG to dip their toes into the waters of commercialization without giving away the store.
Look, I'm in, all right? But let's take a deep breath. We might like to think we are incredibly clever and/or we have tremendous insight to be in this at this early stage. Some of you have been in for a very long time. The facts are that we don't yet have a commercially produced product. Until Lebby can stand there and say 'Here is the product, this is what it does, and this is what it costs", our best case scenario is that someone recognizes the massive potential as stated on this board, and bids to buy us relatively on the cheap (<$5 per share).
I have been down this road recently with a similarly 'disruptive' stock. The parallels are striking. 3 years ago it was said to have $70 per share potential, it is currently a 30 cent stock.
These brilliant execs are impressive and they are moving this technology forward. But think about the connections they have to the financial community and to well heeled investors. $100 million is a drop in the bucket and if this technology was indeed beyond a shadow of a doubt it would be bought hand over fist to the $10 per share level already. The arguments that this is hidden on an obscure exchange, that the tech is not understood, etc, do not wash.
It's not to say that LWLG is not a breathtaking opportunity, it may well be. What it does tell me is that the really smart money knows that when this is totally de-risked, the ROI will be so tremendous that they can afford to pay $5-$10 per share knowing they will get a multiple return and a long term legacy stock.
Some will argue that we could be bought out tomorrow and not owning all you can now will cause you to lose out. It is possible, but remember, this exec team is not loaded up with shares and options just yet. What is their return if it gets sold early on? When they are locked and loaded, look out.
For my money, I have a base position and I will be prepared to load up when that risk factor goes near to zero. It will make a difference in how much money I make if it succeeds, but I would still be extremely happy with my return. And should a worst case scenario emerge, I would not be devastated by being 'all in' too early.
More often than not, nothing happens as fast as it seems it should, so while we have the right to be very optimistic, it's no reason to get over our skis just yet.
Anybody think they did not plan a nice one two punch for these conferences? I think Lebby might have a name or two in his pocket.
Investment commentary:
https://insiderfinancial.com/lightwave-logic-inc-otcmktslwlg-has-more-catalysts-ahead
Observation : Share price has been tied to the progress of development. Now that the development appears to be accelerating rapidly (is it out of the realm of possibility for Lebby to state next week that 100g by the end of the year is a possibility?) , and it appears to be past the high risk of failure of a nascent developmental technology, interested parties are likely to feel a sense of urgency to investigate this technology and how they might further accelerate it to market with perhaps millions to billions of dollars in resources to throw at it. So I can see where Lebby may be getting quite a few calls at this point. There is a lot of market share to be had in data/comms over the next decade and everybody wants some.
Yes 236, samples to customers before they are commercially available are usually called prototypes.
I think you are right strik about the heavy promotion underway. If they get to the .70 to $1 range this year, it will be enormously overvalued versus revenues over the next 18 + months. I have divested the majority of my POET holdings and am actively trading 3 or 4 stocks. I may buy some more back in a few weeks though. Buying and holding POET was a costly deviation from my investing strategy and their leadership since 2014 got me crook, line and stinker. Not repeating that mistake with any stock. I'm playing market for quick 20% plus gains, in and out, and hoping for the occasional 50%+ win over a period of weeks, not months or years.
The India RFP is good news in developing the GaAs technology but that will take years and will be revenue neutral. InP sounds promising but that will not contribute substantially until 2019. I'm not waiting, it is too costly. If it becomes a billion dollar company, that will make it worth at most $3 per share. I don't see a path to that within 3-4 years and, in technology, that is too long a time. I will watch and trade opportunities if they arise but that is about it. Best of luck to you.
Agreed proto, would not be surprised to see a significant technical update early next week in preparation for these meetings.
Still off in the distance proto.
Agreed strik.
Hey strik, hoping for a little run and just maybe an announcement of some partnership on Monday, although rumors never seem to come true. Then I can fold some of this over to LWLG. Right on time.
Proto, looks like accelerated activity for POET, volume yesterday and Rodman and Renshaw conference Monday. Something is up, might see a trading halt Monday.
I can wait until 236T is back on the clock for a response.
Thanks stock62, I just want that poster to provide facts to support his position. No facts, no cred.
By all means, please state the reasons this LPC financing is so toxic and what methods of financing a developmental company can obtain that are better, and why.
Scratch that idea.
Bought Wednesday, sold yesterday, got 22% of the 33 so can't complain. I expect this to get pushed back down until the Hamptons crowd return after Labor Day, then the fun really begins. Might have to buy some back late today if it falls below 35, weekends lately seldom produce stabilizing news. But one day of contraindication always seems to precede a big move.
Absolutely agree Gates, one of the reasons why I now have a firm position.
I do caution everyone, from personal experience, that the last mile is almost always the longest. If they do get to 50gbps by year's end, look out. The talent on board should be telling. But I don't expect things to heat up until September. Not long now.
I seriously don't understand the angst people feel with the LPC financing. If you want to see toxic, look no further than POET's 10/2016 financing with Rodman and Renshaw. Instead of raising $10 million and diluting by roughly 5%, the company announced an open private offering that took the stock from 75 cents to 27 cents in the 3 weeks until closing. So instead of roughly 14 million shares being issued, 37 million shares and 37 million warrants were issued.
And, if you think LWLG is worth more than a couple dollars, why invite a "partner' to buy a piece now, say 10% for $20 million, along with tying your hands in controlling all of the technology?
If the company believes it is near a hallmark event, wait, announce and then see what offers come. And they will, on your own terms.