[Telling you there’s a chance]

Perhaps this will help ensure there is an upcoming light source from you know who

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/david-lazovsky-734058a_generativeai-datacenter-photonics-activity-7137485885121449985-ictm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

[allwillbewave]

Broadcom has a 5nm neural network engine built into some of their latest Switch ASIC’s.

I can’t find any information that says photonics is involved, so it’s a conventional 5nm transistor chip. Jmo

Broadcom is co- developing with Celestial AI a 5nm photonic fabric neural network that will allow chip to chip and in chip data transmission using light. We know Poet will supply the external light source



“On-chip traffic-analysis neural-network engine, NetGNT, provides enhanced capabilities for telemetry, security and traffic engineering”

https://www.broadcom.com/products/ethernet-connectivity/switching/strataxgs/bcm78800

[allwillbewave]

Yes its all real. They have the first of many products ready for the market and they have customers wanting those initial transceiver components.

The problem as I see it is, Management is not very good at forecasting the funding requirements of the company and its had a devastating impact on the SP.

I had hoped that with the years of experience the CEO and CFO had in the industry, they would have had a better handle on how long product development was really going to take and plan accordingly.

Its taking much longer than anyone realized it would take to ever make a buck by going long the stock. Traders may have done ok but that is not my style.

Nothing to do now but let it play out or sell and take the loss. I think its pretty risky to try and average down given the financial track record we have seen from the existing management. AJMHO

[GARYM1]

Poets needs to get thru Dec and come out strong in Jan with some positive news.

[Telling you there’s a chance]

Hi Alllwill,

I like to look at the Luxshare and Adtran/ADVA partnerships. Luxshare makes the iPhone; POET supplies to Luxshare. For those who don’t think it’s real, that fact alone is that the industry is seriously aware of POET. I also think that Arista will be eventually buying the optical modules once they’re done. We do have one of their key personnel on the BOD, I don’t think she’s there to do sudoku with the other members. Hopefully more financing could very well come from a partner and it would be make sense to have a company that’s already invested in Poet to have a stake, streamlining the sale to the end user.

The demo for Facebook, no one is even talking about that….I think the industry is looking for these solutions . Poet has the product, they just have to get solidified financially, or they’ll probably get taken out because the tech is still a unicorn for those that need integration at these levels.

I know I’m pontificating, but there is tangible evidence to all the situations I just highlighted.

[gladeshawk]

I'm not sold on this bounce. Test of 52 week low could happen. TWT.

[allwillbewave]

All good points.
And those customers that have signed up seem to be constantly shifting their ramp up dates jmo.
if Poet has a hard time raising money in this market what the heck will a start up like BFYY run in to? They are to take Poets completed optical engines and provide the assembly operation. Those completed transceivers are to be used in the Chinese telecom space.

Tough to be positive these days.

Cheers

[rwk]

Hi AWBW, you wrote

I still can’t believe management let us run out of cash. It’s on them regardless of alternative funding solutions.

I agree its ultimately on them, and I say the CFO needs to go. But I haven't yet seen a poster that likes it when there is a capital raise at a discount to the market with attached warrants. The mistake of management was to believe that posters actually had any cash to backup their bravado and claims of buying cheap shares. My lesson is to sell the shares of any company where the CFO starts posting on chat sites.

POET has yet to prove they are more than a freshman science experiment. 100g was supposed to sell, then 200g, followed by 400g. They just raised that to 800 and still no takers! Who will bid 1.6t, do I hear 3.2t ?????

[allwillbewave]

This blog post from Broadcom helps to show the transition from 800g -1.6t - 3.2 T speeds by using 100g and 200g per lane optical and electrical connections.

It does not show all the components involved like what type of modulators are used but I think most should be able to see what’s involved in the industry moving forward.

Poets optical interposer is to make the optical engines in the transceiver into chiplets of tx and rx components or into complete tx and rx engines. They can use Directly modulated lasers, externally modulated lasers or continuous wave lasers in their solutions. They use different types of modulators of different materials. Just not polymers as yet.

Btw lwlg’s polymer modulators are so efficient that they will eliminate the laser driver on externally modulated laser designs. They exceed the speed of conventional 100g per lane speeds and reduce the overall system power. The laser will get its low voltage power from the switch ASIC Serdes.

I still can’t believe management let us run out of cash. It’s on them regardless of alternative funding solutions.

https://www.broadcom.com/blog/200g-lane-optical-solutions-drive-next-generation-networks

[Xrouter]

Why not give him a pass??POET is going out of business anyway. We are going to need him there to turn the lights off

[KCCO7913]

Holy shit there’s talk on Agora of giving Tom Mika a pass.

WOW.

Fire Mika.

You can’t make this up.

[Texbanker]

Plan B has to include a large investor taking a stake. Someone like Samsung, Intel, Cisco, etc, or a large investment fund or both, similar to what CAI got. There is no way to continue long enough on just projected organically generated cash flow.

That announcement would be so positive that the SP responds and more stock could be sold higher under the atm, gaining more liquid capital.

Or that alone, a powerful news release outside of a large investor taking a stake.

.Dilution but salvation.

[allwillbewave]

i seeTannersfriend on Agoracom does not know that Ayar Labs uses a competing technology to Poets Light bar product. Many in the industry are producing an external light source based on the laser array design. Poets eliminates that laser array concept and it is 75% cheaper. that is why Poet is in talks with the various light source companies. Poet sees them as potential customers.

[allwillbewave]

Yes, still more questions and guessing after several years of studying this company.

Tom M told me i was asking to sensitive information the last time i contacted the company.

As an aside Broadcom stated in their last conference call they are bringing their silicon photonic CPO solution to the market in 2024. its the Tomahawk 5 Bailly model. By mounting the optical engines close to the switch ASIC they can reduce the server power by 30 to 40%.

Lots of technology advances coming to get the data center power down and the band width increased per lane.

CPO, LPO, Optical I/O between chips and in chips, different modulator designs, different materials, different packaging methods, and different network interconnection cabling methods.
Tough to pick winners in the face of such change jmo

[Xrouter]

Then you’re a veteran. Which means you should know most of the market is a con and a fraud. But you can still make a fortune by dumping a rising star at the right time. Timing is your friend and patience is your sibling.

[jacksonjohn]

I've known the scam since Manocha days!! After all those years, when they finally were ready to sell, they ran the commercials on iHUB.

[jacksonjohn]

I've known the scam since Manocha days!! After all those years, when they finally were ready to sell, they ran the commercials on iHUB.

[KCCO7913]

Good questions and I’m not entirely sure. It would make sense that POET sells the wafers to SPX at cost since they’ll share in the profits (and losses) from the optical engine sales. IMO profitability won’t happen until 800G+ and the light sources. I believe Raju is on record in some video saying 100/200G will not be profitable. Makes sense because that category is already at rock bottom pricing and very high volume by others.

In the case of BFYY, I believe POET sells wafers to SPX, SPX does the final assembly of the engine, and the engine is sold to BFYY. I’d believe this is the general structure for the other customers.

The BFYY contract is 2 years and estimated to be $1 million for 10,000 engines to be used for sampling. I know this is only for the POET ONE 100G. BFYY forecasts $30 million in engine purchases from SPX over a 3 year period. Is that after the 2 year sampling period? Or is it $29 million in 3 years from now? Using linear math/pricing, that’s 300,000 engines total. The quantity of transceivers needed in general is an enormous market so maybe after sampling, BFYY and it’s end-users choose POET and hit very high volume in the third year.

In any case, starts small and I’d bet the other customers/products do as well.

From what I’ve heard, it sounds like SPX is going to be manufacturing everything, even 800G and the light sources.

How and when POET sees the money from SPX is still a question. I hope SPX doesn’t play any tricks. Nodrog posted a scary article in the off topic section on Agora yesterday lol.

[Xrouter]

Probably cause we’ve been on the board trading Poet for ten plus years. You are considered a newbie who needs to earn their wings

[jacksonjohn]

You misunderstood, I meant the hanging where there is rope involved. You all used to bash me whenever I tried to post some truth here.

[Xrouter]

You telling Mac to hang in there is like telling Rip Van Wrinkle to stop napping. You can’t be serious. Heading for $1, after that who knows , GLA, Strik

[allwillbewave]

KCC,

I’m wondering if the disconnect in SPX going into production in large volumes in early 2024 for 100g to 400g and Poets low 2 million in revenues for 2024 is the way Poet and Sanan set up the cost structure of the final pricing of transceivers?

As I understand it Poet will sell the optical interposer wafers to super photonics at cost not at a profit so as to keep the end price of the transceiver that super photonics will sell to the market as low as possible.

Poet will get paid in a dividend as a partner some time after as apposed to directly sharing in the gross profits of total sales that super photonics nets per quarter?

Also I’m not sure to this day who is assembling the lightbar module that will be supplied to celestial AI? I assume Super photonics and is it based on the same cost model as outlined above?

Thoughts?

[jacksonjohn]

We are close.. just hang in there.

[allwillbewave]

KCC,

Let me first say i love your taste in scotch. The single malts are part of my ancestral background.

My mothers side is from the Orkney islands and my fathers side from the Highlands of Scotland. The Elgin area specifically. I’m Canadian eh, oh sorry. 😂

Poet? What is there to say?

I have seen this before. A wonderful concept technology with so much potential and yet the market yawns.

There is something very wrong with what is taking place with Poet.

Top management has been stringing along investors for too long with delays in their business
Plans. Does shite happen? Sure but these recent delays and 2024 expected revenue at a couple of million? Well, this is a stock for my grand kids, I hope.

It boarders on criminal behaviour but I’m not a lawyer. Just a senior vetting.

You can know the pedigree of a race horse but it may not perform on the track when the pressures is on 😂

[KCCO7913]

Allwillbewave,

To sooth the pain, I picked up some Glenfiddich 12 that was aged in sherry casks followed by Amontillado (Spanish red wine) casks. Very good if you like the sweeter stuff.

I can't get my jaw off the floor with how poorly managed this company is.

Raju's eyes in his video today looked puffy. Probably crying. Pitiful attempt to calm the herd, but better than nothing I suppose. I'm biting my tongue watching certain posters' comments on Agora. Many good people there, but a couple that think they're smarter than they really are.

For additional capital, I'm guessing about two possible scenarios right now:

1) Management is in denial and they hope to have a couple good PR's in the next month to boost the stock price, and then they'll finish a raise. I hope this is not the case, because no "good" PR in the past has done anything meaningful to this stock. I doubt this is reality because that would highlight gross incompetence even beyond what we've already seen.

2) Convertible debt to the tune of about $15-20 million. In the short term, fine it gets cash in the door to avoid insolvency and doesn't cause 100% dilution immediately. Only ~40% when the debt converts. There will be a massive supply of shares in 12-24 months in this scenario.

Some people are hoping to raise cash via the sale of a portion of the SPX ownership. That is a horrible idea. Too much value was already handed over to the Chinese in that deal and giving up more for a little bit of cash might end up being worse than the dilution in an equity financing.

In a different scenario, as I've said before, ideally management forks over a couple million of their own cash plus a company like Celestial AI contributes a little bit to an equity raise. If CAI or their investors do not participate in an equity raise, it will tell me that they don't believe POET is critical to their own success.

All said and done...we're likely looking at what...75+ million shares fully diluted in early 2024. Let's peg it at 85 million shares in 2025 because they'll need to raise more money in 2024.

Almost 10% dilution just for a month of capital happened today.

I feel so sorry for the die hard longs here. I've lost a lot of money, but I've only been invested for 2-3 years. I've been watching since 2016 or so. I know some shareholders are a decade plus. They'll never have a spectacular return on their investment given the amount of risk they've taken.

Mismanagement took that opportunity away from them. And someone needs to be held responsible.

Fire Mika.

[Texbanker]

securing institutional investors capable of leading other firms to provide the needed capital to continue the Company’s operations through early 2025.”
Who are they referring to? Is there a list of these types of institutional investors for any clues? How does a company go about "securing" institutional investors? What firms would be led by such an Investor? A Goldman Sacs? GS then would lead some smaller firms to buy poet? Make it make sense.

[Xrouter]

Who amongst our loyal shareholders would like to post an opinion or would beg to disagree with my hope that this happens now!!!! A face to face special shareholder’s meeting is overdue and management must face us now. First thing is cutting their salaries by at least 90% as many loyal shareholders have had their investment cut by that same %.

[Xrouter]

Come on everybody. You should be dancing in the street. Buying Opportunity!!!! Black Out period !!!! Been a buying opp and blackout since the day they entered the Naz. I’m “Gambling” and buying many traders @ .73. Which is 7 cents Pre split. My opinion. Every last manager should be replaced soon or we are headed to bankruptcy. Why o Why are all the Dogs barking in my neighborhood????

[KCCO7913]

“On November 2, 2023, the Company announced an underwritten public offering in the United States and a concurrent offering in Canada (the “Offering”). Since that time, the Company has been actively engaged with prospective investors in the United States and Canada, with a focus on securing institutional investors capable of leading other firms to provide the needed capital to continue the Company’s operations through early 2025.”

This was from the PR last week.

So clearly they’re raising more beyond this tiny amount.

But now, whatever they raise gets to be at a puny $30ish million valuation.

Could be staring at 100% dilution if warrants are attached to the bigger piece.

Yay.

Fire Mika.

[easypeasy1]

Doubt company would give it away. Focus on the products they have. Market is overreacting as usual. I’m still expecting a follow up

[maheu86]

At this point I am hoping buyout of about $6 a share to get my money back.

[KCCO7913]

After all this, they raised ONE MONTH of cash?

And now have ~TWO MONTHS of working capital on hand?!

They’re about to take this private or sell.

Wow.

[KCCO7913]

If this company survives through the end of year, legal action should be considered.

Or a public hanging of Tom Mika.

[KCCO7913]

WTF!!

[KCCO7913]

Wtf is going on premarket…

[Cytotech55]

Today you could buy 10 shares of Poet or this book!

[macnai]

Poet Technologies Inc: Company Profiles Report: The Dawn of the Nanophotonics Age (The Semiconductor & IP Core Subject Matter Expert Database) Kindle Edition
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CP7GRPB5

[Th_EO]

So anyone want to explain where the LR4 Blue Ocean went? At this point, it looks like a complete sinkhole! The BS from Suresh and his team over the years are beyond reality! I have no idea how they think they can keep things the same and establish any trust!

[easypeasy1]

No that’s incorrect, perhaps envy on your part. Likely you were banned now sore los er. Ago have hard core support group but seems to me quite a bit of diversity of thought similar to here but a much more active board. A cult would be stockhouse board. Never seen a board dominated by a few bashers. I can see why any rational person stays away. I posted there a few times when Poet signed an advertisement agreement with them but quickly realize what an awful board.

[GARYM1]

It's turned into a cult over at Agoracom

[Xrouter]

Mac and I have been in Poet for well over a decade and so far all Poet has done was pump. Lie. and. Fail. I’m hoping a new lie develops soon with pumps to go along with it. The share price goes way up to near $4 per share by next annual meeting and I get my dead $$ out. I’m shocked that those people on the Ago board are so in love with this crap. Makes me feel that a lot of those posters are in Poet management.

[allwillbewave]

I suspected as much just one more kick in the nuts that thank god I can no longer feel 😂

Whatever they developed will never see the light of day.

Luxshare will have a commercialized product before ADTRAn/ADVA?

Right, in other words ADVA is running the other way. Jmo

The interposer they developed is not getting design wins.

Sorry I can no longer accept any other conclusion.

Such is life.

Celestial has their own optical interposer.

[KCCO7913]

That PDF was created and last modified in early 2020...

So that specific version is not POET-powered I'd say.

[allwillbewave]

There is no lack of competition coming at the 800g space.

Coherent is going after the traditional transceiver business and the developing linear pluggable transceiver business.

I’m not overly religious but I’m starting to pray to the stock gods that Poet has a chance. 😆



https://www.coherent.com/news/press-releases/coherent-to-demo-next-gen-transceiver-and-semiconductor-tech-at-ecoc

[allwillbewave]

Gee I wonder who supplies the optical engine with DML’s in this LR4 transceiver at 100g 😂

And if it is Poet and it better be, where is the press release?? For goodness sake Poet supplies the 800g receive engines in a Luxshare transceiver under development why not this transceiver?? Did I miss something??


https://www.luxshare-tech.com/Private/Files/2323SuperQSFPLR4100G.pdf