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Good info, thanks proto
I think the $250M shelf might be scaring some, historically offering invite share price drops. I suspect this one will be held for an acquisition or a facility build-out, so it should be more SP neutral (famous last words). The current SP is laughable, but becoming more and more an opportunity with each additional client, don’t mind if the market looks away for a little while longer.
Every one of these wins speaks to the tech’s acceptance at a level beyond the Mentech, Foxconns , Luxshares involved; they are the intermediaries. As we get to know who their clients are, we will get to see the level of adoption taking place.
Strik, hope you’re knocking your trades dead. At some point, this will move out of the basement, hope you (we) are here to see it.
Agreed proto, although the Luxshare news might imply a different arrangement. I suspect we will hear more on that soon. I don’t think Foxconn and Luxshare would have signed on without a secondary source for the optical engines they likely require on a large scale, and POET cannot have source be China based.
Initially SPX was to be for legacy 100/200G worldwide and 400G for Asia (?) only. This rapid acceleration to 800G/1.6T is a game changer, and may have POET re-thinking how much they want to be splitting revenues going forward.
A thought only, but POET has that $250 million shelf opened I believe in June. Might POET opt to create their own version of SPX or partner with a non China company to do so?
Given that the technology is worth far more than a 50-50 or less split with a contract manufacturer, I’d hope to see future deals that reflect its importance and value at a higher share of the pie.
Good timing strik.
👀 ... Details in just 12 hours.#POETpowersAI pic.twitter.com/babr1nEQcd
— POET Technologies (@POETtech) August 1, 2024
Damn, the triple whammy! I added some today too, I suspect we will drop back to the $2.25 range by end of next week.
This was posted in StockTwits, it might prove useful.
https://stockinvest.us/stock/POET
Thanks for bringing real numbers, and by themselves, those numbers would be concerning, especially if the losses were attached to what we would regard as ongoing revenues. But, in spite of their rush to describe themselves as a commercialized entity, they remain in late stages of development. Only nominal revenues have been booked to date.
This is not development in terms of proving the technology, that long, high risk phase is mostly behind them. The development being undertaken now is customization of the optical interposer tech into specific working products for committed customers. My definition of commercialization is simple, when the lemonade is made and it is being sold, you are engaged in commerce. Theirs may be different.
However, like the lemonade stand, they must invest in product and demonstrate an ability to deliver it in quality and quantity. So it’s no surprise their expenses will ramp prior to a revenue ramp. That is the stage we are in now.
You can grind the beans as much as you like, and if they fail to book revenues before cash runs out, you may be a soothsayer. But the deals in hand with Foxconn, Luxtera and CAI suggest that we are not looking at a pie in the sky scenario; real revenues and further customer engagements will come, to what extent will determine its success.
If they remain without substantial revenues a year from now, come back and pull the fire alarm, as cash may begin to reach unacceptable levels. Recent actions show them shedding retail investment as a source of sustenance in favor of the emergence of some level of institutional investment. Since companies need to be more open with these folks regarding what is happening, if such interest increases, it may bode well for us small fry.
In the meantime, save the panic for later next year, unless you are just trying to create a cheaper entry point.
Last warning, get caught up or get lost. Re-read my prior post. We welcome criticism, we all do it, but support it with facts, not with outdated financials.
“Creditors are getting anxious”. Seriously, do you even research before you post such BS. The company has no debt and now more than $25 million in cash. Show some credibility when you try to bash. .
I’ve known and liked folks on each side of this “he said” “he said” dialogue for a long time. I don’t like moderating, step back and remember this:
Opinions pro and con are to be permitted, provided that
a) they are done respectfully
b) they are not repetitive
c) they are not personal
Bring insight, foresight when you can. Hindsight only when it applies. We are all buyers and sellers at some point, we are all here to make money, timing is always the variable.
And, as of tomorrow,
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/aa3e6ea9-5d5a-4e2d-92ac-d3c4d1228405
Please don’t make me remove posts.
Thanks to all.
I dropped my membership so I don’t have PMs anymore.
My thoughts,
History says we will need news to drive this up farther, unless the newest players, MMCap and ?? were given a peek (plausible) as a quid pro quo for a positive repricing vote and a promise to hold off on any action until the repricing was approved. And they are known to play either side of the trade to their advantage.
There are a lot more lookers including the biggest players who are thirsty for 1.6/3.2T, POET has a very high level of confidence, (certainty?) of 1.6T and a clear path to 3.2T when the industry is ready. The dual demands of AI processing and hyperscalers appear legitimate.
If the short reports are accurate, somebody really wants to hold it back.
I still lack confidence, not in internal technical execution, but in the ability to manage and leverage external relationships in their favor. I think it is a weakness that is demonstrated and understood by their competitors, potential partners and customers. While the SP appears to be recovering, it’s still the same peoplein charge that flew it into the ground.
I will be surprised if POET remains a stand alone entity by the end of next year.
Enjoy the 4th. Sous vide prime ribeyes and cold beers are on the menu.
Strik, I recall you saying $3 was your get out of POET free card. Are you using it ?
I won’t comment on what I think will happen next, because I’m always wrong. I do think the reported heavy short selling is interesting.
Enjoy Independence Day everyone.
Right now, based on share price performance, this feels like an argument about who has the best last-place team.
Just to clarify, this repricing vote is only about insiders’ options. Employee options repricing is already approved. So we are talking about executives, board of directors and, at most, a handful of key people. It could easily have been addressed by individual incentive bonuses. Given options’ performance history, wouldn’t you rather have the cash in hand, rather than the bet that these options will pay off?
The fear of an exodus looks like a distraction from the real reason. This repricing by far benefits those most responsible for the missteps that have devastated the share price, multiple failed offering attempts followed by completed financings that have resulted in massive dilution. And of course this compounds the dilution by increasing the options pool which allows further grants of millions of options to insiders and employees.
The only silver lining seems to be the urgency of wanting this done now rather than next year. It suggests that they anticipate some very significant news over the next 12 months or less, perhaps even a buyout.
From the outside it feels like a last grab to add cheap options to their personal coffers before the share price takes off and they become far more expensive. But, if they achieve remarkable progress by landing some huge customers, and the share price does explode, it’s a win-win scenario.
I believe the voting will approve the repricing, but if the recent spike continues and the share price should rise to approach double the repricing sought ($1.79 Can/$1.30 USD) prior to the AGSM next Friday, the TSX Venture Exchange may be hard pressed to justify approval of such a windfall.
KCCO, I haven’t bothered because Mika will filter out anyone who has confronted him or questioned his “genius”. I’m one of many on that list. So feel free to fire away, they will likely answer the most obsequious and or benign questions submitted. Also, their “live” Q&A will be hand picked. Given it’s a Friday afternoon, I probably won’t bother to listen.
They want their repriced options to be approved by the exchange (I’m assuming they will get shareholder approval), so discussion will likely be lacking anything of substance.
Not what I said at all
Thanks KC, they are desperate to get this passed, I’d have no problem if it fails and they re-apply for repricing for employees (not CEO, CFO and Board). I do believe their staff are working their tails off to get things done
Until they actually show that they can monetize the tech, I don’t see any reason for CEO and CFO to be rewarded with below market options.
Interesting, I didn’t know about the retention expense. I get the sense there is plenty of internal conflict with board resignations, the role change for president (Vivek R). Suresh has damaged himself by siding with his CFO in spite of continuous missteps in financial management. The company and the share price and broader investor community confidence would benefit from an upgrade.
This stock and this company have been a sad joke over the past year. The share price sits at 1/3 of where it sat just less than a year ago. The company claimed to release a dozen new products into production in 2023. Really? Where is the revenue generated from these products, how much time and money have been wasted on products that have not, or cannot, be sold?
Now the company claims it needs to reward employees (primarily executives themselves) with options repriced at a fraction of their current strikes in order to retain them. Looking at what has transpired this past year, if I’m one of those employees getting repriced options, I’d convert any in the money options into shares ASAP, take the profit and go to work for a photonics company with a CFO that doesn’t constantly destroy and dilute the value of shares, and a CEO that 1) knows how to make products that companies want, and 2) knows how to draw the interest of investors instead of waxing on and on about the products they are developing (but have not made money, and probably won’t for another two years, or more).
They will get their repriced options, ensured by their recent generous offerings, and they have money on hand for another year of product development. So they will again go silent until, sometime in 2025, they once again come with hat in hand, begging for more money to get to the finish line, the value of shares further diluted and existing shareholders be damned.
Institutional investors of any repute will remain miles away from POET until 1) they land deals with top level customers that include visibility of revenues to be generated and 2) major upgrades are made to the executive team and board of directors.
And looks like folks are selling what they are smelling.
Trash the stock, stunt a rally, then grant yourselves repriced options at $1.31 USD because “ the outstanding options held by certain insiders of the Company no longer provide adequate incentive to such officers and directors since their original pricing does not reflect the current market reality or likely scenarios for the share price”. Unaccountable accounting. Sickening. But their gaslighting works.
Allwillbewave was a class act. He will be missed here. Civil in disagreement, a true gentleman. Cheers to you Bill.
Just a guess, KCCO, but I’m thinking it won’t be as much about competition as it will be about customization (for Foxconn’s biggest customers) and standardization (off the shelf POET transceivers for others that don’t require the specificity).
Millions of shares bought in the $1s during the TSY video rave likely ready for profit taking. The key now may be to get to $5+ and get broader institutional investment.
I’m guessing that offering has already closed, with a 25% and growing profit in hand.
And no hold period. What a deal!
This didn’t follow the normal 2 days of exhilaration, followed by profit taking back down the hill. You could argue that yesterday was a day of healthy consolidation, market caught its breath, and closed with it up another 25% today, this weekend there are going to be a lot of eyes looking at what happened this and wondering what’s it’s about. We could see a resumption next week with new money coming in (at least early in the week) with volume.
Volume was down a bit today, it also would have been a day to take the week’s profits. Yet up we went again. This whole week felt more like accumulation than a day traders’ battle, pullback were orderly and short in duration.
Agreed KCCO that anything short of several million tucked away courtesy of the ATM would be inexcusable at this point.
With no news to sustain/support this, I do expect to see the requisite hit piece published somewhere by a short player who thinks they can take advantage of the huge run up and lower volume/interest to drive a sharp decline. It almost always happens, and it may be great time to add some shares because a rebound will come. There is just too much steady buying interest to believe that it is one off run based on one positive blog. And if there is significant cash added to the coffers, that is a huge weight off of the share price.
Enjoy the weekend.
If the CFO has any strategic sense, they NR tomorrow morning a financing strategy that takes them well into 2025.
If only…
Any bets on who’s selling (hint At The Moment)?
At 6:25, a nice summary of POET by an MIT EE with 300k followers that knows how to talk to investors.
You guys know my inherent skepticism, I think what is confirmed here, that wasn’t entirely understood elsewhere, is that the light source is an external component, not integrated within the fabric. I know that sounds obvious, but for some reason it was not universally accepted.
So it makes sense to demo with an established technology, the FAU, versus one that might not be fully tested to the standard they may require, also demonstrates the flexibility of supply for external power source. Starlight might be the best option, but it will always be just that, an option, as technology always advances, it will have to evolve to remain relevant in an always competitive technology ecosystem. And CAI’s demo was for their Photonic Fabric, not POET’s Starlight.
POET hasn’t shown anything this past week that addresses the financial elephant sitting on their chest, That is all that matters for now.
Agreed, it’s all about the money now, how they thread that needle without diluting us into oblivion remains to be seen.
It looks like Multilane will accelerate the 800G to market, I don’t know if they will be able to handle volume beyond samples.
Yep KCCO, thanks for posting that, under “Competing business” in the glossary, it does specify sale of 400G optical engines within the territory is SPX’s.
“Optical engines for 100G and 200G applications will be sold exclusively world-wide by SPX. 400G optical engines will be sold by SPX in the China territory while the Company will sell 400G optical engines to customers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere outside the China territory. Volume production of optical engines and packaged light sources designed for specific customers with high volumes is expected to ramp in mid-2024”
100/200G applications are legacy products and I believe the above addresses to 400G pretty clearly. Applications beyond that, 800G, 1.6/3.2T, if they incorporate 400G optical engines? Clear as mud. But the fact the POET suggests manufacturing its own 800G+ transceivers seems to imply that anything incorporated to achieve that level and higher remains in their purview. I’ll guess it will end up being contracted to SPX at a renegotiated cost+ rate per OE versus the at-cost agreement for everything at 400G or less. To do otherwise (POET contracting with someone else) would be a lose-lose.
Question: If POET has technology that demonstrates a clear path to 1.6T and beyond, and a market cap of a mere $60 million, why has no one from the white hot datacom or AI sectors made an attempt to buy the company at these levels and accelerate commercialization and development of their photonics integration technology platform? It appears to be well past proof of concept and already in the process of diverse commercialization.
It would seem to be a low risk, high reward proposition. Are industry experts ignorant of the potential this technology is purported to offer? Is the technology not as elegant in function as has been stated, have competitive advances in photonics integration surpassed those of POET ?
Given their relatively short cash runway, and with no revenues of their own, (any revenues forecasted will be booked by their joint venture with Sanan IC, SuperPhotonics) it’s past time for the company to explain how they plan to either achieve positive cash flow, or, if needed, to fund operations to that end.
An exceedingly tolerant investor base deserves answers.
To be clear, I have no expectations at this point. They have a short leash of their own making, any further financing they need will have to come on merit, the promise pool has been drained. Broad or deep (large client, big commitment) and transparent acceptance are mandatory.
Maybe we will learn more here. Janet Chen, Meta will be part of this panel.
https://www.ofcconference.org/en-us/home/exhibition-and-show-floor-programs/show-floor-programs/next-generation-optical-interconnects-for-ai/
Nice to see that Vivek liked this Celestial AI job posting on LinkedIn last week for a Process Development Engineer:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ankur-aggarwal-8b283510_another-great-opportunity-to-join-our-growing-activity-7159025385584689152-zN9z?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Looks like judge has denied Cisco’s motion for a delay. Trial set for April. Might hasten settlement attempts.
I saw your post KCCO, there was a reference to a jerk in the Off Topic forum and I’d bet you triggered an algorithm that put two words together and that booted you. I thought your posts there were always informative and truthful. But I agree you are not missing anything, lots of mis/dis information over there.
Funny guy stockman. You brag about in at 90 out at 115, now that it’s at 125, it’s a pump and dump? Play your book somewhere else.
I expect to see some wild swings based how far and how fast this fell. We’ll know more next week how the offering went. But when that dust settles, its revenues and industry recognition that will matter. So far we’ve only heard, but have not seen. That has to change. And I don’t want to see chest thumping from management for what should have been resolved months ago at far less damage to shareholders.
Agreed 100% KCCO, it’s either too cost prohibitive, too theoretical and/or years away from anything. And nothing they should be wasting a moment’s thought on. Focus on revenues now, period.
POET announced the current offering on Monday, December 11, it opened the day at $1.05 but closed at the announced offering price of 90 cents.
Knowing that a $1+ threshold is required to maintain a NASDAQ listing, why did the company choose 90 cents USD as its offering price, including a warrant? The average closing share price was $1.018 cents the prior week, with most of the week spent hovering in the $1.05 range.
They could have placed the offering at $1.01, with a warrant thrown in, to try to maintain the $1 minimum SP, why choose a price well below the $1 mark that virtually guaranteed the share price would be sub $1 for the entire time of the offering? Who approves these decisions?
Agreed protocol, I think the 10/30 million scenario was presented in an earlier Zacks report, or just using BFYY 3 year numbers, I don’t recall, but based on most recent information, the lower numbers now seem to be the expectations. Why POET themselves refuse to clarify this is a bigger question. Either they agree with these projections, or have little confidence in their own ability to provide forecasts.
I may be wrong, but it feels like their earliest agreements with prospective customers have painted them into a corner. Maybe a more aggressive exec team could have presented this product development for customers as “No NRE, no deal”, but it’s pretty clear, based on the paucity of NRE, POET has assumed the cost of development of almost all products, including “tweaks” that are being requested by customers, which result in longer development time and greater expense.
POET execs have suggested many times that they may have been better off as a private company. That’s BS. Looking at companies like AYAR, CAI etc, Rockley, it’s an easy argument to make, but given the failure of the GaAs technology, I question that private investors would have had the patience to give them the second chance that existing shareholders gave them.
AWBV, it’s my impression that they will get revenues for 100/200/400G via sales of the optical engines to SPX. Granted those sales will essentially be at cost, but it should show up as revenue.
I’ve been a proponent of them selling the rights up to 400G, but retain everything that results in a product >400G. My rational was that it could generate capital to accelerate development at 800G+ as well as light sources and other applications such as wearables. There is enough business in that legacy market to make it a possibility. And they could license any development that evolves at >400G.