Look, I'm in, all right? But let's take a deep breath. We might like to think we are incredibly clever and/or we have tremendous insight to be in this at this early stage. Some of you have been in for a very long time. The facts are that we don't yet have a commercially produced product. Until Lebby can stand there and say 'Here is the product, this is what it does, and this is what it costs", our best case scenario is that someone recognizes the massive potential as stated on this board, and bids to buy us relatively on the cheap (<$5 per share).
I have been down this road recently with a similarly 'disruptive' stock. The parallels are striking. 3 years ago it was said to have $70 per share potential, it is currently a 30 cent stock.
These brilliant execs are impressive and they are moving this technology forward. But think about the connections they have to the financial community and to well heeled investors. $100 million is a drop in the bucket and if this technology was indeed beyond a shadow of a doubt it would be bought hand over fist to the $10 per share level already. The arguments that this is hidden on an obscure exchange, that the tech is not understood, etc, do not wash.
It's not to say that LWLG is not a breathtaking opportunity, it may well be. What it does tell me is that the really smart money knows that when this is totally de-risked, the ROI will be so tremendous that they can afford to pay $5-$10 per share knowing they will get a multiple return and a long term legacy stock.
Some will argue that we could be bought out tomorrow and not owning all you can now will cause you to lose out. It is possible, but remember, this exec team is not loaded up with shares and options just yet. What is their return if it gets sold early on? When they are locked and loaded, look out.
For my money, I have a base position and I will be prepared to load up when that risk factor goes near to zero. It will make a difference in how much money I make if it succeeds, but I would still be extremely happy with my return. And should a worst case scenario emerge, I would not be devastated by being 'all in' too early.
More often than not, nothing happens as fast as it seems it should, so while we have the right to be very optimistic, it's no reason to get over our skis just yet.
