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There are some good resources stocks that trade under $1 on the Canadian side mostly. I don't buy them in bulk, however, when I do buy I don't want to pay $400 to get in out for 50K shares when I can do the same for $50 or less (trades broken up into smaller sizes usually).
I looked at the math for 5000, 10000 block share trades and didn't like it. Also their rates for stocks under $1 are not very good - by memory.
I looked into IB and didn't find their commissions that cheap - especially for bigger trades. If you have a bigger account most of the discount brokers will give you breaks. IB wasn't willing, but I got a very good break w/Ameritrade. Fidelity is by far the worst w/customer service and website. They fared the worst this morn as well. FWIW.
I like Ameritrade as they have no banking exposure. E*Trade still has home equity exposure so I only have 2 small accounts there, but dispite the gripping found them reasonable to work with and the website was decent on heavy volume days.
Must be a misquote as I don't show gold being down right now. Maybe as of yesterday's close, but not 5%. FWIW.
You're talking general markets right? I thought you were talking gold originally. Agree on general markets.
Any targets? Just short term or are you looking for a retest or a break of the lows at some pt?
That announcement about borrowing from themselves was actually news yesterday afternoon, but it's possible some didn't see it. The market is very tied into AIG obviously and the average investor has no clue imho how big the ST implications will be/could be for failure here.
>> On another matter, did you notice how WFC announced it had was writing off $50-million in counterparty exposure to LEH, and they're up over 10% as a result? <<
Didn't see that and at first blush I'm not sure why that would be the case. I've sold approx 60% now of my AFF bought just yesterday between 3 and 4 roughly. I thought they'd have to save AIG (or at least buy it time), but it's looking less and less likely.
I'm hearing more talk that since AIG's insurance side is well funded the financial system as a whole can tolerate AIG going under better than it's size would suggest. That may be true but I'm sure not the markets can survive AIG and LEH going under in the same week. If AIG goes down I think it puts more pressure on the Fed to cut aggressively. If AIG can be saved (or at least delayed) then the Fed may be able to get away w/just changing the language. We'll see. Right now it's looking like AIG is going down this week and the Fed may just change the language and nothing more. Cutting 25 basis pts would do nothing (even though it's priced in).
Today's financial reality...
Idiocracy (the movie) = Today's financial reality
Brando Corporation = The current financial system
Government Advisors = Fed board
The crops/plants = US Dollar
http://www.amazon.com/Idiocracy-Luke-Wilson/dp/B000K7VHOG/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1221533192&sr=8-1
Must see TV. The parallels are scary....
PS. Turn Dark Side of the Moon on when movie begins...maybe?
Joined you w/some AFF. AIG would be a different type of failure. BAC said they (and the market) can stomach LEH, but the financial system would be hit quite bad if AIG went down (my interpretation of CEO's comments on CNBC). Thanks for the heads up. A small positon overall for me, but in market I'll take any gain. In around 6.1.
Good read, but of course my biggest fears w/buying AIG would be what is still concealed and AAA/AA rated doesn't mean much in this market. However, the article will probably cause me to look deeper in the books. Thx.
Rally on IKE being less than expected? Rally on Fed expectations? Rally into options expiration? Rally on LEH getting bought out?
All BS reasons over an IT period, but this market is so momentum driven doesn't seem to matter. I suscribe more to your view that the markets need to puke. However, gold is up big today and shares liking it even more. Reflation trade or just an IT/ST top in the Dollar? We've gone from pricing in 5 rate hikes back to neutral or even a cut next year.
Congrats - nice trade.
Given what happened w/the preferred at FNM/FRE aren't you worried about the same w/LEH?
No position just trying to understand your reasons. Thx.
Some weekly charts of interest in gold/CRB/Euro/OIH
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24914116
I didn't post anything political on iHub till you started w/your crap. Find it if you can. (eom)
Of course you can't be picked apart because you're too stubborn and arrogant to admit anyone is right besides yourself (politically). Reducing everything to Liberals and Conservatives is pathetic.
It's not like I haven't seen or heard about the party before. I've seen the platform and agree w/some and not other aspects. Abolishing taxes is not realistic in the slightest.
Real conservatives should be about keeping Gov. out of our lives period.
So how are "liberals" the biggest threat that this country faces?
Can't be both? Oxymoron? Wow LG you've really lost my intellectual respect w/that one. How are the two related? You can't want personal freedom yet also want to only spend money that we have?
It's only an oxymoron because limited thinkers like yourself have taken over the political process.
Similar creatures, similar blanket statements. I think the greatest threat is perhaps the deficit and the inability of EITHER party to attempt to deal with it. Republicans used to be the party of rational thought at least when it came to money. Now they are the party of "God" and tax cuts regardless of the consequences. I'm socially liberal, fiscally conservative. Both parties suck in my mind.
You sound rather ignorant when you base all of America's problems on "liberals". To me anyone who is staunchly Dem or Rep. is the problem. Both parties are more or less the same. The partisianship is designed to be a distraction from the real problems. But keep bashing "liberals" as it's a good sound bite.
RUT outperforming to the downside now. Appears broken ST if today's close holds. A retest of the breakdown is possible, but the likely trend for the next few weeks appears to be sideways to lower with double top in place now.
In a global recession EEM could/should get hit harder than the US/Europe potentially. Just like they're leveraged on the upside I expect the reverse to be true. Today you're right it's probably just resource issues. Over an IT period though we'll probably see EEM fall more than the S&P on a relative basis. Guessing of course. Not placing that trade - yet.
I acknowledge that it's possible, but don't see any real plausible scenarios (at least in the next year). If oil drops hard it'll be due to demand destruction not excess supply. Important distinction.
In a perfect scenario...
1) Housing bottoms
2) Dollar rallies modestly
3) Commodities get hit hard
4) BRIC countries keep growing
5) US consumers keep spending
6) Financials bottom and most of the writeoffs are over. Banks start to lend again.
I'm open to suggestions. How are these things supposed to happen in this environment? A Dollar rally coupled w/demand destruction would help the most w/#3, but in that scenario it's hard to see equities going to new highs.
Don't follow transports, but like many sectors it appears to be ripe for consolidation (pricing power). With oil set to fall maybe transports are just showing a bounce play, but new market highs don't seem to be in cards.
I have lots of respect for Russell, but I think he puts way too much emphasis on Dow Theory and transports. Quite possible that just like the fabled ARMS index that it doesn't work this time. Yes financials have probably bottomed ST. Yes markets may have bottomed ST, but to open the door to new highs in the markets seems almost unfathomable. I guess it's possible, but if it happens I certainly won't attribute it to Dow Theory.
We appear to be approx 1/3 thru a bear market/credit crisis. Maybe less.
Guess not. Thanks for the clarification. I'm guessing you find equity only to be a better predictor for IT bottoms vs the overall number?
Where do you get .75? When I look at the CBOE it's showing higher.
Grease coming on the hill or off the hill at this pt?
I can't see a rally going very far here myself as we never had any real fear/capitulation.
VIX still negative with the market down. In light of yesterday isn't this showing big time complacency or am I reading it wrong?
Oh the record for 1930 was a 16% decline. So unlikely, but possible.
They said on the radio this morning that it would be the steepest June decline since 1930 (ironic, no?) at 9% if we closed at these levels for the month (Dow). Possible to break that record.
Timeframe this fall or next week? I'd love for you to share your approach as you usually seem to have a very good TA read, but understand if you don't want to.
CPI tomorrow. Probably a lot of worry that it comes in too hot and forces Ben (in theory) to raise rates and thus hit gold ST. Perverse thinking in many ways given our present situation, but it is what it is...
Right now the odds on bet looks to be normal seasonal trends for the sector.
Thanks, hadn't read that yet. Initial reaction is to be expected. More interesting will be if it holds the next few days or goes under $130 again regardless.
Oil firmed at the same time as gold. The longer oil stays above 125-130 the better the odds for a spike to 150+. That should take gold back over 900 in sympathy I suspect. Still feel that gold needs more "refreshing" though before the next assault on $1000+ again.
Until there's more demand destruction in the emerging markets for oil I suspect it'll remain stubbornly high and corrections will be brief in the ST.
A spike to 150+ may set the stage for a bigger $40-50 correction regardless though.
The "inevitable" oil correction. Don't you read? It'll all just speculation. $60 oil here we come...
I'd say oil will probably top around $150-160 this year and then probably pull back to $100-120 range and consolidate. As such select solars may be decent here, but don't follow it as much as I should.
Are margins getting squeezed because of certain components going up? I know that was ESLR's problem for a bit.
>> I truly don't understand the market optimism today in face of unemployment numbers tomorrow. <<
Large rallies like this are much more characteristic of bear markets than bull markets. I forget the exact study, but it was done recently. Smelled like short covering and mo mo money. Could have more to run as the Naz is near highs here, but I think it'll come back to earth no later than the 3rd week of June as we get closer to earnings season. People are going to want to go heavier cash going into that time is my guess.
Today is especially weird in that oil went up about $6.
One potential explanation is that the jobs are expected at -60,000. Pretty bad number - wouldn't take much to exceed it especially since they can play w/the birth death model all they want. My guess is jobs come in flat or at least better than expected - all lies anyway. Market rallies initially but then ends the day red or flat. We'll see.
So far, so good. Nice call on gold. Guess you have an office inside Goldman Sacks?
Yea, just checked, no ETF, but there are options which I typically never trade. If oil does come down shortly (very possible) then VIX may go lower again before ultimately busting out. I can't see oil going too much lower than $90 or $100 anytime soon so the same problem will be with us this fall, but then we'll have the start of the Alt A liar loans and commercial rel. blowing up.