Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ItsAllCyclical]

I acknowledge that it's possible, but don't see any real plausible scenarios (at least in the next year). If oil drops hard it'll be due to demand destruction not excess supply. Important distinction.

In a perfect scenario...

1) Housing bottoms
2) Dollar rallies modestly
3) Commodities get hit hard
4) BRIC countries keep growing
5) US consumers keep spending
6) Financials bottom and most of the writeoffs are over. Banks start to lend again.

I'm open to suggestions. How are these things supposed to happen in this environment? A Dollar rally coupled w/demand destruction would help the most w/#3, but in that scenario it's hard to see equities going to new highs.

Don't follow transports, but like many sectors it appears to be ripe for consolidation (pricing power). With oil set to fall maybe transports are just showing a bounce play, but new market highs don't seem to be in cards.