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MSFT _ Supplying energy to cloud-data centers in built out cities.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/why-is-microsoft-getting-into-rooftop-solar
Good for you. MZOR is the pure play as you know so does well if we are still on the steep part of S curve. And MDT is a great marketer as you noted.
errata ... in the last sentence. <screening and monitoring process> instead of <screening and process>.
I don't think US policy without support from other major countries will much affect Iran production. Venezuela is in it's own twilight zone.
MYOK - thanks for the heads up. Looked at the 50-55 strangle earlier, 5% earlier. One would think the strangle would be worth more with the jump. Nope, volatility went down (ie strangle price down) so I guess it is just noise. Almost back to flat for the week wrt share price. Too bad the options are so illiquid.
MYOK - re the patient that dropped out because of AF recurrence. Looking at protocol and slide 6 (linked), his beta blocker was stopped 14 days prior to screening. That would be plenty of time for BB to washout as half life is only several hours. AF recurrence started after dosing with 461 and he decided to stop 461 and drop out after failed cardioversion followed by chemical conversion (most prob amiodarone). BB main purpose is to block AF from causing VT so it probably doesn't impact whether AF occurs or not. Since he was paroxysmal already, it could just be bad luck that it occurred right after he started 461, or not. Given exclusion criteria of NOT having any documented AF episodes 12 months prior, it would be easy enough to compare in a blinded study to expected rate of initiation/recurrence (2%/person-year for HCM patients) if N is powered enough.
Many people with AF don't feel it so that would complicate the screening and process for P3 if they don't limit that criteria to "symptomatic" AF.
http://www.myokardia.com/docs/3-01-HFSA-2017-Phase-2-PIONEER-A-Data-Sep2017.pdf
AMZN - more random laughs that scare other CEOs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-amazon-industry-displacement/
MZOR is subject to direct competition from GMED. HAIR looks interesting if they can get their system to work with light color hair. It doesn't and survival rate of harvested hair grafts needs to improve to at least the same level as manual.
TRIL - any guesses on value of MF and SS market addressable by TT621?
Thx. XOM - Chad oil will be piped to Cameroon. Uganda's going through Tanzania but it would cheaper to go through Kenya.
http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/company/worldwide-operations/locations/chad#About
VW remake of their iconic bus, EV version coming around 2020?
https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/G5-024.jpg
Some thoughts regarding the firing of Tillerson - he has been spending time in Africa trying to repair the damage from the crap pit comments. Looking at the countries he was visiting would be a tour of countries with fast oil production ramps. Chad, Uganda (wasn't on the itinerary but the writing is on the wall with regards with where the pipelines have to go through), Kenya. I think Nigeria, Ghana, Angola were probably in there too but I have not verified. IMO it is open season for American companies to be replaced. TOT ENI Repsol CNOOC etc all to benefit. China's Sudan experience will be put to use.
I can just imagine the level of tension within MS as the big boss wants in on the Aramco IPO while some of his analysts gets more optimistic about expanding EV domain driving down the NPV of Aramco oil reserves. I think the boss wins until the IPO is done.
I don't see much change in rig count other than in Canada which is probably environmental conditions related rather than oil pricing. It is better to be cautious on spending and workover rigs to frack drilled but uncompleted wells are a lot cheaper than drilling rigs on frontier prospects. IMO it will take a sustained period of $75 oil to get the blood flowing again for frontier prospects.
Medical device salesman blog post his impression of TRXC progress relative to ISRG dominance.
https://www.medtechy.com/the-ticker/articles/2018/transenterix-earnings-what-did-we-learn
In the recent ISRG CC, CEO Guthart in Q&A talked about the cost sensitivity in Europe as a hurdle to adoption. That would be consistent Stifel's expectation that 2/3 of TRXC sales over the next 3 years will happen in EU region.
IMO the worry if any was fleeting when there was worry that TRXC would go after the same surgeons. That has not been the case and TRXC ceo in various presentations have emphasised that they are going after high volume lap procedures that have not been converted over to DV. In fact, at RBC conference in response to question, TRXC ceo pointedly said they have in a few instances been used as leverage against DV and he said they decline those attempts. IMO there may be some overlap after articulating instruments get clearance on trxc. But that's not till mid-2019 but I still see DV being used in the most complex, lengthy procedures.
MYOK - Finally read the data PR and CC transcript. Not sure where to start. I guess I wasn't the only one confused by trial protocol as written on FDA website and what actually occurred with cohort B. So was that just a change that wasn't updated or perhaps it is considered not important enough to update. I think given the side effects of bb's, ace inhibitors, calcium channel blockers that it is important to have it separated out in the first place. Some clarification from the company would be helpful. My other thoughts relate to how they define oHCM in the inclusion criteria and stabilised optimal medical therapy of patients prior to entry.
From data PR >>>>
in Cohort B, all of whom completed the study. Nine of ten patients remained on background beta blockers.
Reading the Q&A with CMO. He confirms cohort B patients were on beta blockers.
From FDA Pioneer HCM >>>>
Part A: Ongoing therapy with beta blockers, calcium channel blockers, or disopyramide. Subjects on any of these medications who, in the opinion of the investigator, can safely be withdrawn are eligible as long as medication is discontinued at least 14 days prior to the Screening visit.
Part B: Ongoing therapy with calcium channel blockers or disopyramide. Subjects on any of these medications who, in the opinion of the investigator, can safely be withdrawn are eligible as long as medication is discontinued at least 14 days prior to the Screening visit.
MYOK - thx. Anything new and also on FDA front wrt Explorer?
No trump fan here either but he is right about China forcing companies to share IP through forced joint ventures. Tesla is running in this problem now. This has been going on for 20 years. That is probably the end game to this tariff "show".
Now I am all confused. The short sellers will say let Musk have all the OTM options because they will not vest anyway, while a watchdog for the longs say wait a minute. LOL.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/tesla-investors-should-nix-musk-s-2-6-billion-grant-iss-says
It would be funny if Amazon's AI programmer can do this non-randomly and make fun of people shorting their stock. David Einhorn, are you listening?
https://mashable.com/2018/03/06/amazon-echo-alexa-random-laugh/#5wf.PaIdCiq4
TRXC - not much new info since RBC session. Recent systems sales rate is 3/quarter. They need to ramp to ~5/quarter by year end to hit average analyst target of 16 systems for the year. Stifel in their October note guesses 75 systems over the next 3 years, most of that outside of the US, to arrive at their PT.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17094184-transenterix-inc-reports-operating-results-fourth-quarter-full-year-2017
CC transcript
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153987-transenterixs-trxc-ceo-todd-pope-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
What do you think of Globus's robotic system?
Thx. I saw the JV with Genentech. The note made it sound like CRVS was directly involved with MRK the source being MRK's powerpoint.
Nothing on Corvus website pipeline page about a joint trial with MRK. They have issued no PR about it either so I am not sure about the accuracy of the linked note.
RE "The MYOK trial you referred to is designed with FDA input and accepted by them ."
The phase 3 study (Explorer HCM) has not yet been described on the FDA clinical trial site. It will be interesting to see what the FDA wants and I expect to company will have something more concrete to say about that this week. The last update was in Nov.
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/11/02/1173799/0/en/MyoKardia-Reports-Third-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results-and-Operational-Progress.html
ps I have a tiny option position, hedged.
MYOK - You are aware of my past skepticism and my thoughts wrt to myk461 are as summarized below.
1. The proposed mechanism for relieving oHCM pressure gradient is to address hypercontractility in patients with high LVEF. It appears to be working in small P1 study. The conventional view of oHCM is that it is a structural disease. ie septum obstruction and in limited cases valve leaflet obstruction. That is why surgery works and also why alcohol ablation works, works in this case means long term cures. MYK461 does not do anything for heart anatomy problems in oHCM. I remained to be convinced that addressing hypercontractility in HCM would do anything for those patients as well.
2. Even if data is encouraging, the proposed enrollment of 200-259 will be way too small to access potential safety, the need for long term use and safety for long term use. As reference, Entresto trial enrolled >8000 and took years (Paradigm-HF).
I am thinking of shorting via options.
Impact of steel tariffs on US oil projects. Our Russian comrades and OPEC friends will send thank you cards.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/
The article is from Reuters. I wasn't familiar with Donovan's agenda until your comment. Looks like he has a long history of dispute. I have no dogs in the fight. I see the legacy dogs as old energy businesses that will have to struggle with increasingly competitive alternatives. Worth a trade on occasion or special situations. Definitely not LTBHs as in decades past.
RDS - Mexican GOM blocks. Well done. Did CVX drop the ball, or did they have different interpretation of the same data, and also political risk?
http://royaldutchshellgroup.com/2018/03/02/how-shell-hid-a-whale-before-placing-mexican-oil-bet/
ps pretty cheap for 9 blocks.
Not all of it. It started with Lee Raymond. The culture takes time to change as do the processes and strategic planning staff (what I call the analytical group). Just as BP's risk seeking culture and safety disasters were rooted under Browne's helm.
RE XOM. Some of it is bad luck, most of it not.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/
myok - what happened to Maverick HCM trial planned to study non-obstructive HCM mentioned in last years PR? That would be a much larger potential market than oHCM. I also wonder if N of 200-250 is big enough to address uncertainty wrt AF recurrence or initiation. HCM patients have around 2% incidence of AF per year. People with AF 12 months prior or on certain AADs were excluded in Pioneer.
Shell has better telescopes than most in my past experience. The biggest uncertainty is on the supply side. Buyers don't believe it as they insist on short term contracts or small volumes. Suppliers don't spend capital based upon short term contracts. That is the big uncertainty that Shell thinks will roll favorably towards limited supply. That is somewhat true if you recall that Chevron/WAPET sold contracted long term sales 75% of expected volume many years out before committing a dime on north west shelf LNG builds. I don't see that happening in east africa, and the ME suppliers want to sell as much as people want as fast as they can, and so does Russia. So I guess count me as being skeptical on the supply side. Demand side I believe Shell.
I suppose Woodside would be closest to a pure play if you believe those projections.
In the referenced RBC session, it is apparent that Pope (trxc ceo) has gone out of his way not to be trampled by ISRG. That is, avoiding situations where trxc is being used as leverage against ISRG monopoly pricing. Smart imo but I am not sure how well it is actually going to work. A surgical physician assistant from SSM/WU (St. Louis) has been posting her experience dealing with Da Vinci Si and Xi surgeries (husband is surgical dept head) and they are very upset with ISRG instrument pricing since the release of the Xi. Prices have doubled with the Xi, but what are you going to do if you bought an Xi system? Cases now routinely cost $4000 extra or 10X conventional lap cost. That's what I call monopoly power.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-23/monopolies-don-t-explain-why-stocks-do-better-than-the-economy
(see postings under Liz, trxc board on yhoo)
There is a company that's been doing that for auto apps for many years now. MXWL
Fisker is still a fishy company after its reincarnation.
Look at the India projections. From that I gathered this was a garbage in garbage out exercise.