The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

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Shell has better telescopes than most in my past experience. The biggest uncertainty is on the supply side. Buyers don't believe it as they insist on short term contracts or small volumes. Suppliers don't spend capital based upon short term contracts. That is the big uncertainty that Shell thinks will roll favorably towards limited supply. That is somewhat true if you recall that Chevron/WAPET sold contracted long term sales 75% of expected volume many years out before committing a dime on north west shelf LNG builds. I don't see that happening in east africa, and the ME suppliers want to sell as much as people want as fast as they can, and so does Russia. So I guess count me as being skeptical on the supply side. Demand side I believe Shell.