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Big smile for you RE MDGL. Why do you bother with O&G stocks? Seriously, while LOL. TIA. I have some vktx because of you.
Bloomberg article on tariffs suggest that Trump is looking for a comprehensive "deal" that increases EU defense spending to promised 2% of GDP and cooperation on Iran issues. Lots of braggadocio and used car sales tactics as usual with hidden intentions.
IEA comes around to BNEF's projections wrt EV adoption curve. Currently, EVs displace 380,000 B/D of oil demand.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-30/electric-vehicles-on-the-road-are-set-to-triple-in-two-years
An overview of the surgical OR landscape and some stuff on robotics and imaging. Nothing more important than a skilled surgeon with lots of cases under his belt.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-operating-room-of-the-future-1527559862
mdgl/vktx Well done. Whoever was scooping up the June 5 calls for the past month on VKTX tripled+ their money. What's fair value IYO wrt mdgl?
Yet another chance to make jokes about the exasperation of tsla shorts and what a scam it is while I am short low PE stocks like CMI.
TRXC - RE expanded indications.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141135889
TRXC - FDA cleared expanded indications. Adds to already big lower abdominal indications. Stock shot up 20% near opening, currently up ~10%. I thought it was overdone already but did expect a positive reaction to news. I rolled June 3.5 cc's to July. I may add in the mid 2s.
Enlightening. I guess Welch's worst decision in his career was picking Immelt to be his successor. Perhaps the lesson is that conglomerates as they grow big will be hit by the Peter Principle eventually. So what are the biggest conglomerates out there?
What's Ford got to do with this? Oh wait, writer owns F shares. Hmmmm.
Porsche CEO said in a conference about a month ago that charging cost will be the same as gasoline cost, for their business model. I have no idea if charging is a moat at all, most charging will be done at home or office. Superchargers are for long distance driving.
TRXC - nice bounce from refi and new loan news. All my shares are hedged against OTM (some itm) options mostly with June, July expirations. Sales remain on track with my original guesstimate of 1 system/month ramping to 2/month exiting this YE. Uncertainty on that sales ramp still exist. My original thinking was that they would, by now, have more sales in the USA than currently indicated. Majority of sales has been through German partner to eastern EU. USA sales is critical to adoption in advanced economies. My first mention of trxc potential from 8/17 linked below.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133574021
PS. FDA clearance on expanded indications is expected soon. I don't expect the additional indications to impact sales as current indications already is primary driver of sales.
LOL. Alway appreciate the ruthless truth. I am agnostic wrt to bull vs bear thesis so opp is direction independent.
Bad analysis or bad journalism? IMO this will have near negligible effect on demand. There will be some tweaks to refining to low sulfur level. That's all.
reta - up 20% since upsizing enrollment and 1.5 yr addition to trial completion. Stock trades at very low volume. Further thoughts?
myok - I am not as confident as the buyers wrt HOCM trial design. One positive is that FDA, for now, thinks 30 weeks is enough to get long term data compare to one year minimum which was more my thinking. For BB therapy, it takes a few months to figure out optimal dosing/combo and 6 months or longer to tell whether it is working or have bad side effects. There will probably be further modifications to time line depending on time of dosing changes and interaction with existing meds (those will probably get adjusted too). All that will add to the difficulty of analyzing results unless the positive (or negative) effects of 461 are big.
Enrollment may present challenges as well just due to small patient pool. Although I understand from HOCM friend that the company has been reaching out to leaders of non-profits and social media groups since last August. I don't know how much financial "aid" has been provided to publicise enrollment.
TRXC - now up 90% at today's high since pre-earnings. I guess the market is really is that inefficient for microcaps. I think it is overdone and sold OTM CCs on remaining half. The June 3s that I sold are ITM so I will roll in after tax accts to maintain long term cap gains status. The ER was good particularly wrt instrument sales. +90% good? My cost basis now in the 0.2 range accounting for CC proceeds.
Sure if you go by ITT. As noted by John Day in his blog, many in the drug only arm had to cross over to ablation to get their condition cured or managed ( but still counted as being in the drug arm). And a portion of the ablation arm was not ablated and remained on meds because they were found to be inappropriate candidates after randomization (those were still counted in the ablation arm under ITT). There was criticism of those issues happening when the trial protocol was set up.
Wait for the final analysis to be published by one of the major journals. Likely the ACC.
Your ER doc did you a favor by scaring you into not getting triaged to PCI in an ER setting. Just my observation that you have little control over timing, staffing and the skill level of the operator, particularly in an academic hospital setting. Far better to wait and evaluate when your regular cardiologist does a further detailed review and talk.
RF ablation is very safe in high volume centers. CABANA showed that. The patients that remained on drugs having more complications that required hospitalization. Ones that got ablation had the stroke risk reduced to the same level as general population. Better than the ones that remained on AAD meds.
MYOK - LVEF is preserved and you wouldn't need to exclude anybody with less than 50% LVEF. RF catheter intervention is minimally invasive relative to myectomy, about the same as ASA. I am guessing it is less than a 2 hr procedure past the learning curve.
461 is still unproven wrt to long term side effects (beyond LVEF lowering seen in P1) and efficacy. If it is like other beta blockers wrt side effects, then there will be cross over to interventional procedure, either catheter or surgery. Also, don't know how much 461 will cost if is proven useful. Ablation would be a one time cost with ~$2k out of pocket cost depending on coverage.
MYOK/oHCM related. Recently concluded HRS annual meeting showed continued progress in RF ablation treatment of oHCM via septal ablation. Description of procedure below. Success rate around 90% but N is still small although bigger than the N for 461.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5079133/
DE - slide deck for Q2 2018 report. Could it be that the bottom of the cycle has been reached already or perhaps cyclicality will be better managed than in the past?
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2018/Q2/2Q_2018_Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf
MYOK - N is too small and hard to discern placebo and lifestyle modification effects in open label trial IMO. For comparison, look at the recently completed CABANA trial for N and evaluation time required.
MYOK - Ok thx. I wasn't paying attn to their earnings at all and I didn't think anybody else would be either at this stage. I read the CC transcript and there was nothing obvious in there other than perhaps a higher rate of spending to conduct all 6 trials and continued uncertainty wrt what the FDA wants on hcm trials. 491 potentially interesting. The rest I am not sure of given the nature of HF. Short the 45/55 strangle (triggered when the drop happened) that will expire tomorrow.
MYOK - any thoughts on why the stock's big drop post earnings and the subsequent rebound?
Heart failure and AF related.
Why the WSJ really need better journalists with subject matter expertise and analytical skills. (IMO they have went down the tubes in recent years)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/heart-device-procedure-is-no-better-than-drug-therapy-for-irregular-heartbeat-study-1525989601
here is the more detailed analysis
https://drjohnday.com/cabana-study/
.
TRXC - up 40+% since post (post ER/CC) and 60% pre-ER. IMO a little over done although I do foresee 1B MC by year end if company continues to show system sales progress. I sold OTM CCs on half my position. Current O/S including warrants and options around 240M shares.
Mapping consumer interest in EVs.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Deloitte-World-Map.jpg
highway vehicle fire statistics, for the people that are interested in numbers and context.
https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Fire-statistics/Vehicle-fires/Highway-vehicle-fires
You are confused that I have an opinion about what differentiates "market" and "manufacturing". I do have an opinion about EV vs ICE sedans. Listen to the interview that comes with the article. If Jonas statements reflect accurately what Chrysler, Ford and GM execs are saying to him, then the companies and I share the same opinion. Any questions?
GM is apparently thinking the same way as F. Looks like the only American brand left with passenger sedans will be Tesla. That is, until tsla or somebody else gets going on E-pickups. That will happen.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-11/morgan-stanley-sees-detroit-largely-exiting-american-car-market
GM - regarding the moat. It is like watching Michael Phelps in a race. The moat is the widening distance between him and everybody else. Taking the car in for a software update - you have got to be kidding.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-stunning-numbers-behind-success-of-tesla-big-battery-63917/
More results from the SA Tesla battery storage system. Two and done?
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-stunning-numbers-behind-success-of-tesla-big-battery-63917/
vktx - somebody really likes the June 5 calls.
correction - India has 1, Brazil has 6
https://artashair.com/first-and-only-robotic-hair-transplant-system/find-a-physician/
HAIR is back to where it was pre-ROTH conference. IMO this one fits the TGDT theme well because of early penetration, growth in procedures even when economies ran on the cliff's edge during 2008-2010, procedure tailwind blowing from FUT towards FUE (see first figure in stats below). 4 systems in Japan, 5 in S Korea, 3 in HK, 3 in Thailand, 3 in Taiwan, 2 in Philippines, 1 in Singapore, i in Shanghai, ZERO in India. I think Brazil has 5.
Stats below from top clinic in NYC. I now have more than a smidgen but still less than small.
https://www.bernsteinmedical.com/hair-transplant/resources/statistics/
Haven;t looked at this for a while. What's up with the Acutus collaboration? Anyone?
https://www.acutusmedical.com/media/Poster-Acutus-HRS-2016_Final.pdf
https://www.acutusmedical.com/media/HRS-PO03-106-Moser_Hamburg_AF-Mechanisms_2016_042716.pdf
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/fiercemedicaldevices-2016-fierce-15-acutus-medical
TRXC/lap surgery robotics - gaining traction amongst lap surgeons. I was pleasantly surprised by instrument sales, mostly to EU since that's the bulk of installed based. CFO said in CC that 80% of instruments went with new system sales. Still an indication of excellent utilization of installed and expected usage at newer locations. revs. came in ~30% ahead of average consensus.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140640945
Some people like me think of produced water as a liability and not an asset although in some basins, water is relatively fresh and not brackish so suitable for treatment and irrigation. Not the case in the Permian or Bakken though.
https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=2982
TRXC - Q1 release. 2 system sold in Q1 and 3 sold in current Q with several weeks left to go. Latest US sale to "major south central academic hospital". Of interest is the 1.3M recurring revenue booked in Q1 and higher ASP then analysts expectations wrt gross margins. 1.1M of the recurring revenue was from instrument sales. System rev was 3.5M.
http://ir.transenterix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transenterix-inc-reports-operating-and-financial-results-first
CC has Q and comments regarding Verb and Medtronic.
AKAO - Medscape article discussing voting dilemma.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140595594