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$2.896t is "OWNED" by mortgage holders
That's an additional error.
Some people may own mortgaged-backed securities that FNMA has sold from loans that they bought from originators (banks and back in the day companies like countrywide).
FnF doesn't own $5T of MBS. The banks do. FnF only insures them. Better read a 10-k and learn about the businesses.
You're just plain and simply wrong about this.
Banks service loans but they no longer own them after they're sold to (for example) Fannie Mae.
This article explains everything in very simple terms:
https://medium.com/transforming-home-financing-to-benefit-the/why-your-mortgage-was-sold-and-what-it-means-to-you-e713b96dd0c4
I quote:
One interesting wrinkle is the ability that lenders have to sell your loan, but still retain the servicing of your loan. Servicing is the ongoing management of a loan’s billing, payment collection and escrow account management. This occurs most often when banks choose to sell their loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. While the Agencies will purchase loans from lenders, they do not have the capability to service these loans. So a lender can sell a loan to Fannie for example, but keep the servicing.
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The accurate short interest is way down:
04/13/2017 NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC NWBO Other OTC 2,854,066 3,435,285 -581,219
http://otce.finra.org/ESI
What happened to the 2014 holdings of more than 17 million shares of MannKind stock? Go back and read the latest 13-G filing if one has doubts about what happened to these shares. This latest filing clearly shows that Deerfield doesn't own 17 million shares of MannKind stock.
There was a one for five split. Now they own over five million shares.
I don't think that's up to the quality of Osborne's analysis. Spencer seems to have his finger on the pulse of what's happening with Mannkind.
I think he pretty much nails these articles with lots of good data about sales and refill rates:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066772-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-dip-investor-frustration-rises
Stocks drop after Trump says he's actively considering breaking up big banks
Someone should redo these headlines. They should say, excellent buying opportunity after, ...
How many declines has the media falsely predicted in the last few months?
We're in a bull market. It's as clear as anything in investing could be.
Mannkind spends over 15 dollars for every dollar they earn.
That's equivalent to someone who earns minimum wage (14.5K per year) spending 217 thousand dollars per year.
If I was asking people to finance that kind of spending, I'd be a lot more open and honest than Mannkind is.
Thanks for posting all these articles!
I really like this one. The author knows what he's talking about.
Among other things, he makes a good case that Pretivm has intelligently managed their cash --- something that's pretty rare for companies like this.
Question is how would the fed unwind its balance sheet?
They need to make sure time doesn't stop.
After all bonds and notes have a maturity date.
Nice post.
Your predictions here #msg-130758463 are coming true as well.
This is a fact -> Tutes know what miners will be bought by GDXJ. So, they are loading up those miners. So, GDXJ will end up paying more for "adds".
They even talked about it on the proboard site over the weekend. The stats indicate that people don't renew their prescription.
Something is going on, and people are speculating on why. But it's been going on for years, and the company hasn't even admitted there's a problem -- much less started to solve it.
In a nutshell, that's why the stock is at 86 cents this afternoon.
In my opinion, whatever the problem is, not knowing is even worse than the problem. Nobody is going to spend a 100 million dollars when important facts are hidden.
Do a survey on people who use it, and those who drop it. Find out if something is wrong, and then create a plan to fix it. I can't believe that the executives at Mannkind haven't already done that.
On Friday there were over 16 billion dollars in silver shorts (16,856,000,000) on the CME.
I'm guessing, you check for sure, that the longs have some big money on their side. Because, after all, there's a long matching every short.
Not related to what NWBO is doing other than misinformation.
What the breakout shows is the dramatically different survival characteristics of different groups of people who have GBM.
If NWBO hasn't broken out the types of patients that it's enrolled that's a good sign that they've gone out of their way to mislead you about the predicted survival characteristics of the people enrolled in their trial.
I'll repeat it again for you. The #1 factor determining how long someone will survive is the characteristics of the patient sample. As you can see from the patient breakdown it's more important than the treatment given.
Seems the study here you have linked, for the most part is comparing MGMT unmethylated to MGMT methylated.
I think the authors are honest and this is what it's about:
In this review, we present an overview of the data supporting the current standard of care and discuss novel experimental therapies in early and late phase clinical testing including devices, small molecule drugs, angiogenesis inhibitors, oncolytic virotherapy and immunotherapy.
...
The standard backbone in the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM) based on the results of the EORTC-NCIC-CE3 trial is surgery, when feasible, followed by radiation therapy administered concurrently with oral temozolomide (TMZ), and six cycles of adjuvant TMZ therapy. The MGMT status of the tumor represents a prognostic and possibly predictive factor.
Interim analysis results from the EF14 Phase III trial, demonstrated that use of Optune™ (tumor treatment fields) device in conjunction with adjuvant TMZ therapy was associated with improvement in progression-free survival and overall survival in newly diagnosed GBM patients. Recently approved by the US FDA for newly diagnosed GBM, this device now represents an additional standard of care option.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4976851/
Why does everyone assume that's the way survival works (especially after I've posted this link before)? People have their tumor removed and then everyone just dies all at once at some point in the future?
For example, here's a trial where of the people who survived two years, (8.3/14.8) 56% survived 5 years.
Remember every treatment has a long tail and the #1 factor determining how long you're going to live is your demographic (how sick you are, and how old you are).
http://pubmedcentralcanada.ca/pmcc/articles/PMC4976851/table/T1/
If i shorted 1000 shares today at a nickel,
That's why I said institutional investors which represent almost all shorts. They have the ability to borrow 10-1 or even more against their capital.
I'm well aware that if a random private investor shorts stocks their broker doesn't give them the money from the sell. The rules are very different for institutions.
If someone shorted at 20 they'd owe about 5 dollars in taxes to cover their short.
Would you pay five dollars to buy Sunedison today when it's 100% certain the stock is worthless?
The institutional investors who are short, are unlikely to want to pay that tax bill now.
However, at this point, the carrying cost for short positions is costly relative to additional future gains.
The interest to be short is less than .001 cents per month.
If someone covers their short they could easily have to pay a dollar in taxes.
Covering is more than 1000 times more expensive than staying short.
The chart comes from here:
http://www.vixcentral.com/
The mistake that most people make is getting excited when the VIX rises but there's no real increase in volatility.
Monitor, for example, HV10 for the historical volatility over the last ten days.
And also understand this so that you get a feeling about what different levels of the VIX really mean:
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/05/rule-of-16-and-vix-of-40.html
How often is the S&P 500 really moving 1% or more?
Lately, not very often.
front running is one.
I suppose, but GDX trades a couple billion dollars worth a day, NUGT trades several hundred million dollars worth, and you'd also need to move the prices of all the stocks that GDX owns. Many of those trades many tens of millions of dollars per day.
NUGT and DUST are sometimes hard to borrow (to short), so they're occasionally manipulated a little higher than they should be, but that's unusual.
Here's how carrying amount, which is the 44.6 million dollar value, is defined.
Carrying value is the original cost of an asset, less the accumulated amount of any depreciation or amortization, less the accumulated amount of any asset impairments.
Note it clearly doesn't reflect inflation or any other possible increase in value except money that was spent.
On the contrary that reflects money they've spent on it.
They are continually losing money.
The recent 10K indicates 6.7 million dollars in foreign currency losses because of the rising dollar making their property less valuable in USD.
During the year ended December 31, 2016, the Company also recorded $6.7 million of foreign currency transaction loss on the Consolidated Statement of Operations, which was primarily related to the inter-company transactions related re-valuation to the UK facility.
There's non-stop stuff like that regarding Dryships.
They don't have a valid independent audit committee like a US domiciled company would have.
The two auditors they do have have been sued in the past.
The details are here:
http://securities.stanford.edu/filings-documents/1048/DRYS00_01/2012522_f01c_11CV02056.pdf
Good question.
On futures expiration the futures and the VIX have to be the same. What you're seeing to some effect is that they're being drawn together. The VIX is rising and the futures are dropping.
This happens virtually every month where the VIX is below the futures. They have a strong tendency to drop in the last couple weeks before expiration.
We just finished having that discussion.
VIX futures are predicting, like they almost always do, a VIX rally.
The VIX has to rally more than the futures predict for the futures to go up and for UVXY/TVIX to go up.
In some sense that's true.
Currently the VIX is at 11.02.
May futures are at 12.30.
In 18 days May futures expire. If the VIX goes up to 12.30 by May 16th, then the futures and UVXY won't have gone up at all.
That's because the futures are already predicting the VIX to go from 11.02 to 12.30 by May 16th.
June futures are at 13.15. The fact that the VIX needs to keep going up for investors to break even is why this tends to be a very poor investment.
Mannkind's debt problem points to management incompetence.
Today, at current prices, their debt amounts to the equivalent of 1.1 billion pre-split shares.
At one time they could have sold 20 million shares instead of going in debt.
All of those exclusions relate to the feasibility of being able to travel to receive the vaccines, have the vaccine made from an adequate supply of cells, and live long enough so that the first couple of doses have a chance to kick in.
There's nothing wrong with the trial.
The problem is that NWBO pretends that the placebo arm are expected to die as fast as a random patient.
Let me rephrase the question.
Do you think brain surgery is serious? Do you think some people die within hours of the surgery?
Do you think 100% of patients who have brain surgery are healthy and have no signs of disease weeks after their surgery? Do you think comparing a placebo arm that is healthy weeks after surgery, is like a random patient with GBM?
The placebo patients are from that same group.
The sickest people were ineligible for the trial.
People are living longer than random people with the disease.
And I agree with you 1000%, that that includes people in the placebo arm.
The market is up 19% since I shared this research (recorded in CNN) with ya-all.
"Even among two siblings from the same family, the sibling who has the higher IQ is more likely to participate in the stock market," he told CNNMoney.
But there's no requirement to have a high IQ to own stocks in a bull market. You just need to put aside your fear, admit your mistake from not having bought earlier, or conquer whatever issue you have.
Yes, they definitely have brain cancer.
And yes the placebo group is definitely living longer than those who are over 70, have compromised immune systems, and are expected to die very soon.
Does anyone, besides me, think that specifically removing people with short life expectancies from the trial might lighten how long people live in the trial?
Patients must have a life expectancy of >8 weeks.
How about removing those who are bed-ridden?
Patients must have a KPS rating of ≥70 at the baseline visit (Visit 3).
How about removing the very old?
Subjects ≥18 and ≤70 years of age at surgery who are capable of informed consent.
How about removing those with signs of disease?
Patients must not have progressive disease at completion of radiation therapy.
How about removing those with compromised immune systems?
Patients must have adequate bone marrow function (e.g., hemoglobin >10 g/dl, white blood count 3600-11,000mm3, absolute granulocyte count ≥1,500/mm3, absolute lymphocyte count ≥1,000/mm3, and platelet count ≥100K/mm3. Eligibility level of hemoglobin can be reached by transfusion.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00045968]
The material comes from the DC-VAX application
Here's the link and quote:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00045968
Patients must have adequate bone marrow function (e.g., hemoglobin >10 g/dl, white blood count 3600-11,000mm3, absolute granulocyte count ≥1,500/mm3, absolute lymphocyte count ≥1,000/mm3, and platelet count ≥100K/mm3. Eligibility level of hemoglobin can be reached by transfusion.
The fact that patients with compromised white blood cell counts weren't enrolled is just one of many reasons why NWBO severely misleads investors when they compare survival rates with random patients.
We don't enroll patients with A, B, C, D, E, and F, please buy our stock if the patients live longer says the crooked management.
The study requires everyone to have chemo. This is not an alternative to chemo.
Primary therapy must consist of surgical resection with the intent for a gross or near total resection of the contrast-enhancing tumor mass, followed by conventional external beam radiation therapy and concurrent Temodar chemotherapy. Patients having a biopsy only will be excluded. These primary treatments must be completed at least two weeks prior to first immunization.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00045968
For some reason yesterday DSLV closed 40 cents below its net asset value.
Today it's trading exactly what it's worth. In other words, DSLV is tracking ^DSLV-IV perfectly.
http://www.etf.com/DSLV
nobody seems interested in miners any longer. they r an inefficient, disappointing group for sure these days.
Why were people noticing them before? It was only because the price was going up and they were getting really really expensive.
It's worth looking back to when gold stocks were cheap and seeing how little interest there was.
> Buy $1000 worth shares today at $8 thats 125 shares
GDX does up 10%, NUGT goes up 30%, each share is worth 10.40 and you have 1300 dollars.
> Buy $1000 worth shares at $32 thats 31 shares.
Actually 31.25 shares.
GDX does up 10%, NUGT goes up 30%, each share is worth 41.60 and you have 1300 dollars.
There's NO DIFFERENCE in your profit if there's a split. You make 300 dollars either way for your 1000 dollar investment.
I agree with you. To quote that immortal investing advice: Buy the crap out of it.
A split will have absolutely no effect on NUGT.
When I captured this screenshot a moment ago NUGT was worth exactly 7.89 and that's where it was trading.
If there were one-quarter the shares it'd be worth 31.56 and that's where it would trade. NUGT doesn't trade on investor feeling. It trades based on how much what it owns is worth. There's even a ticker you can use to follow that value.
Believe me the debt holders have very little bargaining power
The security for the debt is 100% of the company's assets.
Today the debt-holders essentially own the company.