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After 104 weeks (26 * 4 or 2 years) symphony will be reporting a 4 week number close to what our monthly burn rate is:
((23627110-22772110)/(22772110-21986110)) ^ 26 * (23627110-22772110)
The company will have spent 125 million dollars by then and it'll really only represent about 52% of breakeven (because Symphony reports much more than Mannkind's revenue).
Some day we can discuss how valuable companies that are reporting breakeven data in Symphony, but really losing lots of money and are deeply in debt are worth.
Scripts have been trending up at 5% growth per week
I've looked at the sales table posted at the PB site many times to discern any potential patterns. Here's what's going on:
He's taking four weeks of sales.
He's taking the next four weeks of sales.
He's dividing each by four and getting a weekly sales number.
He's seeing it's up by 5%.
But that means the sales are rising by 5% every 4 weeks, not 5% weekly.
5% weekly compounded amounts to an 89% increase every 13 weeks. It's never true that a dollar amount sold is 89% higher than 13 weeks ago.
That's what happens when you don't read iHub the best source of analysis regarding Mannkind Corporation.
Here's the most obvious points:
1. Symphony reported 21,800,110 - 15,070,240 in sales in the last three quarters. That's $6,729,870.
Mannkind in their earnings reports reported $3,091,000.
So roughly 50% of Symphony reported revenue flows through to Mankind.
2. Revenue hasn't been growing 5% a week. In fact sequential quarterly revenue growth is less than zero; down 9.5%.
Q4 2016 revenue was: $1,322,000
Q1 2017 revenue was: $1,196,000
3. Mannkind's expenses would undoubtedly rise if sales were rising.
Usually the hard part of investing is predicting the future, but knowing what happened figuring out the "why" is easy.
But for gold, even knowing what happened I have no idea why the market reacted the way it did.
1. The Federal Reserve did exactly what everyone expected.
2. The S&P 500 is virtually unchanged since 2pm today.
3. The dollar is down since yesterday at 4pm.
4. Silver is unchanged to up slightly since 4pm yesterday.
5. Interest rates are down quite a bit on the day, especially longer term federal funds.
6. Junior gold stocks crashed.
What the heck!!!!
If there was zero chance, this bankruptcy would have been done and over with months ago.
The opposite is true. When there's enough assets that creditors all get paid and the common stock is not worthless, those bankruptcies go very quickly.
The reason this bankruptcy is time-consuming is lots of people are fighting over a small bit of assets.
It's 100% certain that at some point the common stock will end up canceled, which means today it's worthless.
Debt needs to be completely repaid before the common is worth anything. That debt is being offered for almost nothing.
This tells you the entire story:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?symbol=SUNE4214176&ticker=C625795
Federal Funds futures are up substantially, which indicate that people think further interest rate hikes are more unlikely today than they did yesterday.
But the dollar is screaming higher. I'll never understand what makes this market move.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/stir/30-day-federal-fund.html
This makes it even more clear:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Yesterday the market thought it was more likely than not there'd be another hike by January 31, 2018.
Today it's less likely.
companies do whatever it takes to get thru the rainy day, how is this any different strategy? I dont care if we get to 1B shares as long as we get approval
My perception is that paying your bills is not a rainy day event, and is the normal course of business.
I think borrowing money when you have no income and your stock is at 6.64, and then selling shares at 14 cents year to repay that money isn't causes by Mother Nature or rain, it's caused by horrible decisions from a management who cares only about themselves.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420414051450/v387098_ex1-1.htm
I find nothing wrong with NWBO. and for those who doubt the management, do you realize all these folks are attorneys?
NWBO just announced it is dumping a huge number of shares at 14 cents a piece. Maybe the future will prove that attorneys know when is a good time to sell.
I am sure and confident that they know what they are doing in the circumstances they are in.
Okay. I agree that the circumstances that would cause these sells deserve careful evaluation.
Shares: 7,142,857 at $0.14
Shares: 13,485,714 at $0.14
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420417030281/v468136_ex10-1.htm
Almost certainly we'll see a 25 basis point bump in Federal Funds at 2pm. After that, probably no more raises for a long time.
The economic news is weak. An example is the dollar heading down and gold heading higher after the weak retail sales report this morning.
The day before FDA approval the market cap for VRML was 330K. The day after it was 8 million dollars.
When DC-VAX is approved I'm guessing that most people here are anticipating a market-cap of more than 8 million dollars.
when companies are near successful and hope for approvals but are cash strapped, they choose path of Chapter 11 and sit on hands, prepare plan of reorganization, by then news hits, PPS rises, and shorts get wiped out.
There are almost no shorts here. Why would there have been a lot of shorts for a company with a market cap of 330K?
NWBO is where it is today because it didn't raise cash when it would've been easy to do so at a higher price. The only people responsible are in management.
I can understand trying to prevent dilution when you're a profitable company but why companies postpone dilution when they're money-losers is a mystery to me.
There are two HTML files at this link:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420417032365/0001144204-17-032365-index.htm
The first one is the one that I was quoting. The numbering is on the left.
It extends the payment FEES not the payment.
Go here:
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Northwest+Biotherapeutics&owner=exclude&action=getcompany
2. Click the first 8K link
3. Click Seq #1
Comes back with this:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420417032365/v468660_8-k.htm
No this is the second forbearance agreement.
It's just fees. It has nothing to do with bankruptcy.
second forbearance agreement (the “Second Forbearance Agreement”), under which the Holders agreed to extend the date for payment of the forbearance fees due under the Forbearance Agreement from May 26, 2017 to June 12, 2017.
There's two paths a company can go on.
1. The scenario you're discussing. Bankruptcy. Shares become worthless. Brand new shares are listed in essentially a new company, and previous stockholders are left with nothing.
2. Sell shares to pay debt.
I'm not sure exactly how companies decide what path to go on, but NWBO isn't on Path #1. They're on path #2, and have been for a long time.
All that happened is that NWBO posted an 8K and it was short enough that people saw standard language that said: if you stop your paying your bills all your loans immediately come due.
It's completely standard and didn't change anything but it's usually hidden in the middle of a long agreement.
Literally nothing relevant changed.
Google everything you see. Otherwise you end up posting unbillable 10 digit NDC codes.
This is accurate information:
http://www.hipaaspace.com/Medical_Billing/Coding/National.Drug.Codes/47918-880-18
The fact is that short interest is remarkably low, given the fundamentals, at only 4.973 million shares.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NWBO/short-sales
There have been no reports of shares failing to deliver but possibly some minuscule percentage of the shorts are naked. Given the riches that have come to shorts paying the 1% interest rate to borrow is insignificant so they have virtually no incentive to cheat.
Just a single bottle of insulin is over $400 if your insurance denies it.
Step 1: The number I gave you is the amount Mannkind nets after pharmacies and everyone else in the supply chain takes their cut.
Step 2: It doesn't mean Afrezza is cheaper to patients.
Step 3: For very Afrezza prescription filled Mannkind loses money.
It's less effective and more expensive.
It's not bad luck Afrezza doesn't sell. There are very good reasons.
Zillions of statements like this all over the internet.
NovolinR vials,a non-prescription insulin substitute for Humalog vials,may be purchasd at Wal-Mart for $24.88 per vial.
https://www.diabetesdaily.com/forum/multiple-daily-injections-mdi-/82148-novolinr-wal-mart/
I've seen that discussion.
Castagna clearly said during his interview posted to youtube that Afrezza was available throughout the supply chain. Some people aren't stocking it, because it sells very poorly but they can all get it within a short period of time.
But people are excited that Afrezza might not be selling because it's not available. Personally I disagree that that's good news, and in any case Castagna said it was false in his interview.
In any case one can clearly see from the financial reports that Afrezza is being sold for about 380 dollars per prescription. That's less than it costs to make and far more expensive than more effective alternatives.
The calendar says:
May 20 -- Payment by NWBO due -- 2.5 million
May 31st the company paid 3.0 million dollars.
That should presumably also affect the remaining balance to be paid on June 20th which currently says 5.5 million.
Here's the 8K. The two payments are at the very bottom.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420417030281/v468136_ex10-1.htm
Mannkind never has positive news. This is the last ten reports.
Stock price down from 2.80 to 1.51 over this disastrous last 4 months.
Mannkind news summary from SEC filings:
2017/06/01 8K Castagna becomes new CEO
2017/05/23 8K Shareholder votes to confirm board of directors
2017/05/10 10Q: Announced need 37 million to pay current bills. Current cash 56 million. Current debt 93 million.
2017/04/19 8K Mannkind issues stock for debt
2017/04/07 8K Mannking issues parachute for executives
2017/03/17 8K Mannkind says no delisting
2017/03/16 10K Mannkind announced it had spent 24.2 million dollars to sell 1.3 million in Afrezza in Q4 2016
2017/03/02 8K Mannkind announced completed 1 for 5 reverse split
2017/02/23 8K Mannkind announced 17.3 million in real estate sales is complete [that amounts to more Afrezza than it has sold since January 2015]
2017/02/12 8K Mannkind announced planned real estate sale
All that horrible news doesn't even address that this is the worst year for Afrezza sales.
One last post, from the same report. These don't sound like the words of someone who believes banks know what they're doing in the mortgage securitization business.
From page 97:
The financial crisis exposed significant structural deficiencies in private label securitizations, which led to substantial losses and litigation, and damaged the trust of market participants. Pre-financial crisis, private label securitizations often had conflicts of interest, inadequate investor protections, contractual enforcement failures, and a lack of transparency into decisions affecting the value of trust assets. Enhanced governance and strong investor protections are necessary for a responsible and scalable PLS market, along with adequate economic incentives for all parties in securitization trusts.
Yes, but this is the context:
The revised regulatory regime disproportionately discourages private capital from taking mortgage credit risk, instead encouraging lenders to channel loans through federal insurance or guarantee programs, or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac;
That's not anti Fannie/Freddie. It's basically providing a rebuttal to those who claim Fannie Mae charges too much and needs competition.
Freedom for Fannie Mae in exchange for competition (that Fannie would win) is a fair trade.
I didn't know this was from the Treasury. That quote is way out of context.
It's in a section on deregulation and explains why the current regulations are not appropriate to private label securitizations.
It really has nothing to do with Fannie Mae. It's basically providing an excuse or a rationale for deregulation.
Like for example this is one of the valid issues that it brings up:
A bank that originates a pool of QM loans is placed at a capital disadvantage when it securitizes those loans rather than hold them on its balance sheet as individual whole loans, despite the fact that the same underlying collateral would be held in both scenarios. In some cases, the capital required against an interest in an RMBS is greater than the maximum loss exposure for the security itself. Furthermore, the capital required is based on the par value of the security, so an interest that is purchased at a discount in the secondary market is treated even more negatively from a capital standpoint, further discouraging secondary market activity in these assets.
PLS is a competitor to Fannie Mae. He thinks the private sector needs to be provided incentives (money), to do what they don't want to do, which is to move into mortgage securitizations and take Fannie's business.
In other words, he think companies should be paid because they're too inefficient to compete in the current mortgage securitization environment.
If the world made sense Fannie Mae would be rewarded for doing a great job doing what other companies can't do.
It's useless.
If you'd like to read something intelligent on the topic this is good:
http://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/65901/2000375-The-Rebirth-of-Securitization.pdf
Long story short, there are excellent reasons why private industry stopped private label securitization during the financial crisis, and why in the last few years it has returned for automobiles and other things, but not real estate.
One thing for absolute sure there's nothing Fannie Mae is doing wrong or needs to change.
BETHESDA, MD, March 10, 2017
To be fair it was an odd transaction. NWBO issued debt that was convertible into shares at $6.64 each.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420414051450/v387098_ex1-1.htm
But the company recently provided shares at fourteen cents each. That's six dollars and fifty cents less than originally negotiated.
It's turned out to be the worst financing transaction in the history of stock trading.
Reading PRs and even more importantly SEC filings is critical to understanding this disaster.
all the offers lifted and someone pounded 18 cents for about 200k shares
Yep, been there, discussed that in the past. People who've held NWBO for a long time are holding it as a lottery ticket. Main seller is a single group that's gotten shares from the company.
In the middle of March the company announced they were going to spend the next 3+ months dumping shares.
The latest batch of shares bought at 14 cents needs to be dumped on the market before the next share for debt exchange.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420417013851/v461593_8k.htm
A logical conclusion would be that DCVax is working and creating its own long tail.
Here's a person with GBM who lived 20 years. He didn't receive DC-VAX. We know that either:
1. There's a long tail
2. The average life expectancy of those with GBM is at least 10 years. We know this is false, and that therefore option one has to be true.
Every animal, of any and all types, human and not, sick of any number (zero or greater) of diseases has a long survival tail.
If an animal's life expectancy doesn't drop one month for every month that passes it'll have a survival tail.
People that are poisoned have a long survival tail. It literally is ubiquitous.
Here's the optimistic scenario, ...
Imagine if Mannkind could stop paying all its expenses, no rent, no salaries, no utilities, no stock options, etc.
If there was no 7 million a month cash burn, it would only take 49 years of Afrezza's paltry sales to pay off the debt.
If NWBO investors are relying on things I think it'd be interesting if someone provide real evidence of:
1. Brain cancer trials with no tail
2. Stats that methylated patients represent a very small number of enrolled patients in the current FDA trial.
I find it hard to believe that management is desperately selling shares as cheap as they can because they have evidence the trial will succeed.
I still have this strange idea that when you disallow patients with a short expected life from entering the FDA trial that the remaining patients will live longer than average.
And yet it's becoming quite apparent there is a long tail in this trial.
You should expect to see a long tail in the placebo arm of every cancer trial.
DC-VAX1 trial is no exception to this rule.
I've posted many graphs showing that.
Google it for yourself, go here: https://images.google.com/
and type in: cancer survival graph
There are many many anecdotal reports of people surviving brain cancer for years. Once you graph that, it's a long tail.
Long tails are ubiquitous, literally everywhere, in survival analysis.
From here:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
to here:
https://www.cedars-sinai.edu/Patients/Quality-Measures/Clinical-Areas/Measuring-the-Quality-of-Treatment-for-Brain-Tumors.aspx
That's a large display that's behind Mannkind's tiny booth.
This is the floorplan:
http://www.expocad.com/host/fx/afassanoco/17ada/exfx.html#floorplan
Analysis of Castagna's comments about selling Afrezza in India, China, and the UAE.
2015 prescriptions 400 per week, 2016 303 and 2017 259. Headline: CEO of #MNKD admits #Afrezza is a failure in the USA and moves elsewhere.
Here's the only report I've seen of Mannkind at ADA.
Booth is already getting busy #Afrezza pic.twitter.com/tMZgGdbhFK
— Scott Miller (@ScottMiller41) June 10, 2017
That's not a valid way of looking at Banro.
They replaced preferred shares with common shares.
The total value of the all the shares is down, not more than doubled as your math implies.
Banro, like every single other company in the universe, is properly valued using its enterprise value which adds up the total cost of the company, all the types of shares, and all the debt. That number hasn't been rising.
That's no valid argument to make that Banro stock has been getting more expensive.
If Afrezza had 30 times its current sales it'd be less than 1% of Amgen's sales and it would be a speck in the eye of big pharma.
The good news is that if a miracle occurred and sales went up by 30 times, Mannkind would finally be close to breaking even.
But unfortunately sales are not going up. 2016 was the best year. 2015 second best. This is the worst year for prescriptions.
As time passes more and more people try Afrezza and dump it for more efficacious alternatives.
Total sales for the last ten weeks (week ending 6/2/2017): 2,774.
Sales for the comparable period last year (ten weeks ending 6/3/2016): 3,096.
A year's worth of effort:
1. To blanket the country in (VDEX) diabetes centers
2. Contracting and then hiring sales staff
etc.
has resulted in a more than 10% decline in prescriptions.
Since what's right in front of shareholders' eyes is horrible news, he's promising sales in countries far enough away that no one can observe that there's no progress and no money to make progress.