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The pattern over the last 3 days smacks of accumulation.
My guess is there is a fund(s?) out there accumulating shares of AMRN below $8.
Whether it's a short term bounce play or a long-term value and activist play?
You make your own minds up on that one.
You've lost over $1M a day?
I consider myself fairly comfortable asset-wise, and my hair would be turning white if I've had losses in a single stock of over $1m in 24 hours. Even if those losses were just on paper.
Halted based on what though?
You can only halt if there's material news.
If there were talks but not formal offers there's nothing to halt.
If there were settlement discussions that were "very positive" but no agreement signed there's nothing to halt.
You can have all sorts of leaks with no real way to halt the stock - because nothing is signed or agreed on yet.
That is a good point.
I see it as a good thing for AMRN though. IF we have a management that knows how to play it right.
If Covid-19 has a 2% or lower mortality rate, and heart disease / "beetus" kill more every year as many have said numerous times...
Well we shut down our entire freakin' economy for 2 months and risked the highest unemployment rates since they started collecting those numbers, higher even than the Great Crash or WW2 to fight off this "bad flu". If CVD is even worse, should insurers really not penny pinch over a proven lifesaving drug?
Yes, there will be many many who recover.
But there is also the risk of more extreme side effects than the usual flu-like symptoms (mild) or completely asymptomatic.
So the question is, do you want to roll the dice and find out if you're one of the unlucky extreme side affected folks?
I think we need to do more analysis until we can figure out WHY and WHO are seriously affected by this (ie blood type O, or certain co-morbidities like High Blood Pressure / Diabetes, etc).
Then it'll be less concerning. Until then, you can't blame folks for being scared.
I think this whole focus on mortality rates is misguided.
Yes, on the whole, CoVid is not a very lethal virus, unlike say Ebola or Zika. But it makes you a hell of a lot sicker than the Flu as well, and the complications, from stroke, to reduced lung capacity can be pretty nasty, even if you survive.
Come on dude.
This like saying OmegaVia EPA will replace Vascepa at dispensaries.
Its ridiculous and if PBMs and insurance are covering and pushing this crap instead of Vascepa, with it's wormwood oil and a small-time pharma behind it, whoever is running AMRN in that market needs to be replaced yesterday.
Lem:
Will ask you something that you clearly have economic expertise in.
With a likely unionization of Healthcare workers, and whats looking like a public black eye for the administration in terms of handling the crisis by the media (not that other Western nations are handling it better, but thats another topic..)
Do you see single-payer healthcare (stripped down Medicare for all) in the near-term?
That could seriously impact AMRN.
I've been firmly in the buyout camp since 2019 Jan (post R-IT targets).
However, the way some of you guys are turning on JT is nuts.
Look, the time a rah rah hype-man type of CEO (think Elon Musk or JZ) would've helped is before DU.
Post DU, we need a seasoned careful individual like JT, so long as he has a clear strategy.
The last thing you want is to have a management obsessed with selling (thinking of a number of posters here that write 10 posts a day constantly droning on about a buyout).
If there's a buyout in this sort of depressed, bear-market environment - trust me, it will not be at a price most will be happy with.
Putting your legal hat on (assuming you were completely neutral and not an AMRN shareholder).
Let's say AMRN paid a hefty fee to settle with H&R (something like $1B committed over the course of the next 5-6 years).
Another generic enters Q4 2020.
AMRN files suit in separate court.
Would the new generic then cite DU's ruling to support their case and the fact that AMRN didn't decide to appeal but settle (meaning they tacitly agreed with DU) substantially weakening AMRN's case?
Fair, but then bear in mind that no buyer wants to pay what something is worth. Everyone wants to get more for less (especially if the seller is not in a position of strength).
Lets be honest. We want to be bought by Big Pharma. They did not get to be Big Pharma by paying full price for everything.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't 2.5X our current $6.50 price $16.25?
The difference of $4 between that and $12 is a cool $1.65B. Definitely not chump change.
Would it possibly be because they have been advised that even if they settle now, it would open the door for other generics to also enter anyway, meaning a settlement is pointless since the patents have been ruled Obvious?
So before DU: Settlement possible (like with TEVA).
After DU: Settlement or not, makes no difference.
Thero is many things, but he is not a salesman.
He is NOT the man for a GIA of a small-time biopharma with a wonder drug, but one that has 2 significant (huge IMO) drawbacks:
1) It has a negative legacy / connotation of being "fish oil"
2) It is a volume play and not a margin play, meaning you need to move lots of product to make $$$
Now, if they got someone in like Elon Musk, who was a true dyed in the wool salesman, I would be more concerned that the BOD wanted GIA.
Thero IMO was hired to sell the company, so you may very well get the buyout you want.
However, given the depressed state of the market, I have a feeling it will not be at the price all of us want.
Maybe she thinks the company is kind of like TSLA, except without the hype!
I would give my left leg to replace JT with Elon Musk, though. Now there's a guy who could sell snow to eskimos.
Amazing post. This may just inspire me to buy more tonight.
Given the strength of this outline, playing devil's advocate, assuming AMRN's counsel followed your strategy to a T, what would the H&R counsels use to try and uphold the Du ruling?
My guess would be that they would focus almost entirely on (2) (the USPTO finding of obviousness) and say that obviates entirely points 1-4, regardless of Du's error of fact, which doesn't change the USPTO's finding of obviousness.
And try to make this all about the procedural error (5).
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Not much choice for AMRN except to continue to support the sales in the meantime.
There is no EU so the US is all the company has. No pipeline either.
Nah. The chance to win is 99.99%.
Now please can the PPS go back to $30? Even just for a day or two.
Tqvm.
Because it would be like Michael Jordan trying out in baseball.
And we sure as hell aren't the Michael Jordan of the branded pharma world.
If AMRN went to play with the big generics boys in their shark tank, with 1 lousy drug, no generic production experience, no distribution experience (on the volumes the generics are distributing), no economies of scale...
AMRN would be eaten alive.
I would rather sell the company lock stock and barrel to TEVA than compete in generics.
Meh, to me this was just a show of bravado.
For sure JT would rather settle.
To me, the generics would probably see this as a pretty empty threat. They don't have too much to lose if AMRN creates a generic and its by no means certain that AMRN will be able to do this anyway.
If there was no hostile takeover at $4, why would there be one at $7?
Don't see it. If I was BP I would probably wait until I get a clear read on the Appeal strategy, or maybe wait for the Appeal to play itself out. Hostile is not that easy for an Irish-based co.
Yes but given that we have about a year at best till the appeal is settled, it still represents a massive overhang.
If we were talking 2/3Y out, maybe not. But 12 months is far too short. The company may not even be cashflow +ve by then (unless EU ramps up really quickly).
I think we'll hear some answers for (1) and (2). Hopefully it will be good ones.
(3) and (4) (4 is pretty much related to 2 anyways) you will never get any clear answers for until you hear a deal is sealed (if a deal is ever sealed). They are bound under NDAs so they pretty much are unable to reveal any details beyond the usual vague platitudes: everything is on the table, will do what is in the best interest of shareholders, etc.
What I want to also hear was:
a. Why management took several contentious decisions (Nevada filing, no settlement). It won't change the past but having more clarity will give me more faith in management not screwing up further
b. Why should investors be confident in AMRN moving forward? Is management going to buy shares at these depressed prices? Can we get the senior management team to have more skin in the game? JT buying $1-2m worth of shares would be a strong confidence booster.
It will be countered by lower SGA from the generics.
AMRN may (emphasis on MAY) have lower COGS by having larger volume.
Generics will (not may) have to book far lower SGA because they already have a large salesforce, large distribution network and have management costs amortized over a larger drug portfolio.
You are right it will be low. But then will be offset by the fact that it will not be time-capped (10 years) any longer in the US.
The company will then trade akin to a dividend payer in that sense.
I agree they don't need all the answers.
But how about some honesty, humility and transparency.
Something like "this is why we made the decisions we did. We screwed up. We are going to work to fix it. I don't have all the answers now but here's an indicative timeline of my plan..."
Taking questions from retail shareholders would go a long way to rebuilding a little goodwill.
Then you take regular old Vascepa and regular old statins.
The combo is probably a niche audience for people who don't like a whole bunch of pills or can get by with a lower dose of Vascepa instead of 4g.
Ain't options great lol.
No Q&A means they better come out with a friggin slam dunk.
I am a believer in this company and don't hold JT and management 100% accountable for this fiasco but what the co is doing here is not transparent, nor is any leadership apparent.
He has made some missteps for sure.
1) Why did he not settle?
2) Why did he file the case in Nevada?
I think he needs to come out and give clarity here. Look at Zoom - they effed up big time and the CEO came out and took personal responsibility.
JT is sure looking awfully awfully short on leadership here.
Just pissed I could not take my AMRN profits elsewhere in this Down market.
IF BP already bought in, the offer would be lower, not higher.
It reduces the potential # of bidders.
Look at it from their perspective. Why would you pay $24 for something you can buy at $10?
If you're buying AMRN shares today (ie right now, you, personally, from a buying perspective), you would far FAR rather pay $5 than $10. Same for them.