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Ring and Lebby have no doubt already mapped that out where the technologies intersect. Looking forward to PIC.
Proto/strik, food for thought. As Proto mentioned Bill Ring was added as co-Chair for a reason. Why? A possibility - qualifying of the ROE should be complete, and there are specific metrics regarding performance that have been achieved. POET has mentioned a "substance" with dielectric properties used in their waveguides.
Where did LWLG suddenly get the information regarding the optoelectric properties of their materials as announced Feb 28? Is it possible that one of their substances is used in the POET Receive Optical Engine? Maybe co-Chairs have some co-announcements to make.
Buying now? If you think the financial worries are resolved and the tech is legitimately on its way, the long term prospects make this a great buy.
Further, PIC anticipation will likely add 15-25% to valuation in the next 2 weeks.
One more thought- DL sale creates two possibilities, the obvious cash and focus on OI platform and second, a clean balance sheet for a prospective buyout of POET's technology by a big player, once TROE is qualified.
Proto, I shared your good news on Agora.
Check this out all. March 26 panel discussion, Schmidtke- Facebook, Blum -Intel et al
Summary
PIC devices offer size, performance and energy advantages that have enabled rapid growth among optical component manufacturers while encouraging entrants offering new and novel insights. End users need high levels of consistent quality--the hallmarks of CMOS device fabrication--while process tool, assembly and test automation experts strive to support the unique requirements of PIC module TAP. Today’s PIC-based transceivers or PIC transceiver components are often assembled, packaged and tested manually. Is it possible to drive demand while the infrastructure needed to support it is still being conceived, designed and built?
Seems to me POET's chip scale integration and wafer scale assembly and test may be the perfect solution.
Sitting pretty thanks strik. This app keeps closing out if I msg more than a few lines. Lots of room to move yet.
I think the combined NR (buy DL and supply product) is very confusing.
If they has broken it into 2 NRs, "POET Announces Proposed Sale of DL Facility..." and "POET has entered into a substantive supply agreement..." ..."with a company who will expand DL and their own capacity to accommodate the anticipated volume" or words to this effect, it might be clearer.
I suspect they did want to downplay the anonymity in which 2 NRs would double down on the concept.
I see the partnership as simply a supply agreement, not an equity arrangement beyond the divesting of the DL entity.
Hey strik,
My only short term concern is, how does this eliminate any immediate cash concerns? Is there an agreement in place between the companies that provides some short term funding? I doubt that, other than maybe a 10% up front of $2-3 mil, but I would expect some up front money in exchange for POET not shopping for other buyers. Maybe more development deals to drop soon? Probably.
That's all the bad I got. The rest is all good. It tells me the OI is the real done deal and they are going to go all out to develop its diversification to the fullest. Anything they buy now will be 100% dedicated to it. The DenseLight facility provided a great base to work things out. You don't sell that facility unless you have no need for it any more. I recall that was largely a stock deal at close to a buck a share, on paper a $10 mil transaction, but at today's SP, it was less than $3 million deal. Nice.
'Fab light' - So will they look for a facility or lease space primarily for R&D but some (I'm guessing highly proprietary) pilot manufacturing/production? Where? Who knows.
I expect some big names to drop eventually, along with some big deals.
Selling some? I might try to do some short term flips, but will hold a core.
I don't know if this news will have any legs as it is so obscure; non binding, at least 6 months out, undisclosed buyer. I'm thinking more news this month though.
But for me, this confirms the technology is a full on beast that is going to be in high demand. Otherwise, if it is one or two products, you optimize the value by holding it close and controlling as much of the process as you can.
If it has potential for many, many applications, you go fabless, or fab light, and penetrate as many markets as you can as fast as you can. That's the plan.
Bottom line: short term concerns for liquidity, but overall the next 2 years should be a hell of a ride.
That was a Rodman and Renshaw underwritten financing I believe. Rumor has it someone associated with them intentionally shorted the hell out of it, drove it down to 48 cents on the day before closing, which also triggered a 25% premium to them that also drove the stock down to 36 cents CA. An incredible fleecing as they left the stock vulnerable for nearly 3 weeks before closing, mal intent was never more obvious.
I can't foresee doing a financing without any major promo, something material, but WTFDIK.
Something has to break very soon, hope it's not us.
W/apologies Narnia, not marina
Marina, you said "There was Chinese interest in us, but that is no more. Could anyone see a Chinese and Canadian, or American transaction now?? Not a way. Not now, a way."
Given their deal to work with Accelink, how do you see your statement as a positive for this company? You are suggesting that door is closed. Do you think an American company is poised to move in on POET?
Also, what do your contacts know and say about the technology? Is it proven sufficiently to have an impact in the industry.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Agreed strik, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year to all.
As for POET, 2019-now or never.
This piece by Suresh from the call stood above the rest IMO:
"In 2019, POET will intersect the market for transceivers with optical engines on two vectors. One, the second generation 100G CWDM delivering a significant cost advantage to manufacturers who are already experiencing margin pressure; and two, the first generation of 400G DR4 and FR4 devices where we can be designed- in and provide the benefits of both lower cost and higher performance from the very outset."
Targets acquired - 100G CWDM, new 400G devices.
Range - Products within 12 months
Imagine the companies looking for a competitive advantage in these thin margin markets becoming aware that a product will become available that will cut their bill of material in half; some of these companies have pre-approved pricing with POET for the interposer platform to be used in their products. And for those who haven't?
For anyone investing in POET now, versus those of us in it for years, the turnaround in terms of time and return versus risk is becoming compelling.
You know the old saying, " If I had wanted a Mickey Mouse operation, I would have bought stock in Disney".
Agreed on the lack of any fireworks in the 3q strik, anything big would have been announced by end of September.
I do think these recent $3 million in prototypes and development are a door opener that may grow substantially over the next few months. Think of it this way, I multiply those payments times 10 as my expectations for what comes out of them. So they just might stave off another round of financing.
In the past I've been a proponent of a reverse split accompanied by big news (major deal 50million plus) and a move to the Nasdaq after news gets absorbed, with split based on value achieved after announcement. I don't see any reason to rush into a split at this time.
It's one of many reasons why I will continue to trade this, we are perennially just around the corner.
It would be nice but I don't think we are there yet. They are probably testing the ROSA receive prototype, not ready for inclusion in their transceivers.
Yeah guys, I find it curious that we have heard nothing about the 3q results yet. Either it's because they anticipate late breaking news and want to include this in any discussion, or they want to release the information without fanfare and just move on to 2019.
I would hope any possibility of financing would come after substantive news to drive the PPS up first. The alternative would be a financing at such low levels that the dilutive effect would be crushing. I'm hoping there is a party interested in providing cash for a piece of the company in return, say $20 million for a 10% share and a lead position on one of the device applications. That would drive up the share price and advance the legitimization of the platform.
Looking over the Wainwright investor presentation from September, slide 15; it addresses the market for a single company as being $480 million over a 4 year period, $50 million first year. This level of specificity made me believe this is actually a forecast for Accelink. It would seem that it has to be a company for whom they have modeled supply projections rather than a shot in the dark. They would provide some sort of disclaimer if this was purely hypothetical.
They specify that this is a single customer. Multiply this x5 or more and you begin to see the picture.
I agree whole heartedly Proto regarding the disconnect, whether it is organic or it is calculated, I lean toward the latter. Those 3 million shares traded Monday should have driven us up, cold water was thrown it seems. Never easy with this company.
ROSA sales are less important than their prototypes proving the interposer viability. ROSA will not be an income generator, but a proof point for the TOSA/ROSA.
Where it gets interesting is that once the potential of the platform is proven in end products, for the bigger players, the demand to own the technology will be greater than demand for the product itself. It may become a question of whether you'd rather have a 10x return in 12 months via buyout, or a 25x return
in 3-4 yrs. These are strictly examples.
Proto: About trading, I sold half my POET in October to jump in to some AI stocks (INUV, MARK) and got lucky, one got acquired and the other jumped nearly100%. It enabled me to make more than 100% return which I used to buy back my POET shares, add another 30% and bank some. I will never buy and hold anything again. Doing that for 3 years with POET crushed me. But I will likely keep a core position. Trading keeps me alert and in control.
Hey proto, definitely excellent news, it's about to get real.
Until details get fleshed out (applications, markets, component utilization, ability to move with innovation etc.) it does not hit investors. We are not talking about an end product but an intermediate that increases the performance and decreases the cost of an end product. We are talking about a platform that can cover very broad expanses of data and telecom without being the "star" of the show.
My guess is, until a big name gets associated via a deal, or a $10 million + deal is announced we will move up slowly or hold
due t financing fears (see my comments tonight on Agora about that).
Cuppy nailed it, what a great time to be getting in to POET.
Sometimes moves in share price have absolutely nothing to do with technology or it's status. Often it us simply market adjusting expectations, or it can as easily be an order book imbalance.
LWLG and POET (POETF) run extremely similar tracks; technology, maturity, market value at the forefront. Both have no revenues to speak of. Both have taken double digit drops in the last few days on no news.
So are both finding their technology being rendered irrelevant? No sign of that. Are both approaching a need to go to market for cash? Maybe.
But both also appear to be on the brink of significant commercial breakthroughs. One characteristic of these penny stocks is that quite often, as success becomes imminent, traders see an opportunity to sow doubt and drive them down on fear, only to scoop up big positions on the cheap before the big moves upward. No way of knowing, of course, but the fact that both performed in identical fashion may be indicative of some concerted efforts underway. Let's see what the next few weeks bring.
Hey guys, I still look at this like a trader. I think this hire is a game changer, simply because, if you are not 100% sure what you have, you continue business as usual and don't make this hire. It's just plain foolish.
My guess is they know the tech works (no last minute 4th terminal issues), they know their capacity to manufacture. I'll go as far to say they have initial prototypes, otherwise, this guy has nothing to show. So it's time to fill the pipeline with orders.
I don't think this explodes without big deals. I do think it is de-risked enough to climb back up into the 50s US, and when any announcements are made regarding testing completion, prototypes etc, it can move further.
But it will take announced deals to get over a buck.
Yeah Proto, there was info last year around this time of the 'substance' which would be readily available. Polymer was mentioned in the post you referred to, another poster I highly respect suggested FDSOI was the material.
If LWLG are collaborating in any way and their material was being used by POET, I can't imagine they would want it under NDA when it would be mutually beneficial to have if out there (they both need to raise capital and share price would be positively impacted by such an announcement). Also it does not seem to show up in any pre-prototypical testing but would be a great story if the testing was concurrent within the POET receive device.
We should know more over the coming months, POET continues to ramp up technical staffing for prototyping and working on mass production with partners. I had tried to post some of this information on LWLG last year but the one of the moderators there kept deleting them so I gave up.
Strik/Proto,
Not me guys, out of dry powder. Bought what I could last week, liked the insider buy. I do like that the partners are capable of mass production which speaks to anticipated demand. That plus I felt the bottom was low 20s US so I grabbed some traders too.
And absolutely nice pickup by LWLG, looks like they are gearing up.
But it's summer and there is little enthusiasm for equities in general barring any news. So mostly we wait.
Proto, your post on June 22 about the AGM led me to believe you were the author (brightech on Agora site). You did include the link to his post at the end but I didn't see attribution or quotation marks in the post so I thought you attended the meeting.
Anyway it was mentioned by someone who has the R&R report of last year that a dielectric material/substance that would be readily available to them was being used. Some of us wondered if that in fact might be the oft mentioned 'goo' or LWLG polymer.
Not a hint of info to back that up though.
Sent the excerpt to your agora address BT.
Well, there is that mysterious 'substance' per the R&R report that should be readily available that makes me take pause.
Lightwave and POET have been running somewhat in parallel, but it appears with the agreements in place that POET is closer to a happening. I like LWLG as well, but it is a long road as we know all too well.
Yeah Proto, I'm not a big believer in higher powers, especially my own!
One thing that is underestimated, unconsidered, and or not understood, is the potential for multiple partnerships to begin to emerge before 2019.
If you consider what stage we were at when Accelink signed on, we are likely nearing similar stages for telecom, LIDAR, other applications. So will successful completion of 2000 hours of testing for receive side trigger interest from the sensing/LIDAR companies? What will be the tipping point for those whose interest "humbled" Suresh to start signing on to accelerate development for their markets?
The similarity with where we were with GaAs 3-4 years ago is striking, "interested parties lined up around the block" per Manocha. But the technology does not appear to be nearly as complex as the epi stacks GaAs was dealing with, and we are far closer than GaAs ever was.
Summer months are often cruel, slow, uninspiring so the teens are a possibility. But with Accelink, the back end of the supply chain is in place, something never achieved before, so now it's a matter of trying to discern what triggers will foster other interest and when those will begin to occur.
And there you go, I jinxed it.
Too funny strik. I got 5k at .22 early on Wednesday the 27th, but was trying to fill 22k. I had to up my bid to .222 and the ask came down from .224 so I got 16.9 k more. Wanted 17k for an even 22k but ran out of available funds in that account 100 shares shy. Still holding that .222 price today so maybe (knock on wood) the bottom is in.
I'm with Proto in that it looks like Suresh pulled a rabbit out of the hat in acquiring BB. What a coup and in retrospect incredible foresight that back stopped the GaAs technology and probably saved the company.
Summers usually don't provide any excitement, but as they close out these test runs and get demos out there, may be lots of good things to come.
Agreed strik, over several years now, there is not a single action taken that is indicative of any concern for shareholder value and many to the contrary. Trust is earned, and it has not come close to being earned at this point.
Confirmed today, the "special" meeting is required for the grant of stock options.
Hey strik, my guess is they prefer receiving millions of very cheap 10 year options to any buying. No risk, and if they know what is coming is that good, easy money down the road. And 10 years is an incredibly generous time period for many reasons.
I have written to Suresh asking him to consider issuing their next set of options at or above the price of the last offering (I believe that was 55 cents CA).
Doing so shows shareholders you have confidence, is investor friendly and is a big lift to those who bought that last offering, and probably lifts the share price in the short term. Win win you would think.
No reply at all.
If I am not mistaken the special meeting is required when options are to be requested as compensation due its dilutive potential. I think that is the most likely reason for the AGSM. I will post if I hear from him, but not holding my breath. Last year I sent a letter with 200 plus shareholder endorsements that seemed to have fallen on deaf ears as well.
Don't hold your breath strik, doubt they will say anything until after the AGM and their next tranche of millions of cheap 10 year options are granted.
Steve and Proto are on target regarding the technology, if it succeeds it is big. For now, your trading strategy is the best play. I expect to see it recover somewhat to the mid 30s, your 265s should be in good shape, again, as they already pointed out, this is the level at which the insiders bought for the first time in forever so it seems fairly safe.
A reverse must be out of the question until they have a viable commercial product and significant orders/deals in place. Then it will make sense.
No rush, thanks.
Any new progress? Very quiet.
Watching MARK, LMFA, LWLG, BUR, not in any of them right now.
Hey strik,
My quick thoughts. 1) Reverse is probably off the table for this year. They would be insane to do it before market ready products re available to prop up share price and drive demand/interest on another exchange. 2) I think TSX over Nasdaq now due to unfavorable/uncertain US markets/trade. 3) I think financials take them into 2019 product cycle, opinion only. 4) No guidance on product timeline, revenues margins etc cloud and precludes bigger moves.
Again all opinion only. Always an eye out for 20% short term movers to flip in tax free accounts. Gotta run. Best, Mack
I am a POET trader, like any other stock now. Was a disciple, drank the kool aid, nearly killed me. No more. It's paper to be bought or sold, pure and simple.
I buy at perceived short term lows, sell at perceived short term highs. Now, that means low 30s, highs in 40s, 50s. No more FOMO.
I won't talk tech, no promo or dissing. I will share thoughts on trading that is all. GL to all.