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I was about to come around when reading this:
KCC just agreed with a LOT that I said re Lightwave status:
Now, a close look at the substance of KCC's comments shows he actually agreed with me on these issues.
USING HIS OWN WORDS:
1. "You may be right…this could be a dead stock for a few months". To be clear, I said the next 6 months..
2. Re the reliability and scalability, KCC says "They are CHALLENGES". KCC appears to agree with me in principle in that they are slowing down the deals, but doesn't like the terms I used. I used "impass" -- I don't mean it can't go forward, just that it appears to be sidetracked or delayed from resulting in a deal for the time being. He also didn't like my using the word "issue" and prefers "challenges". I''m ok either way. There are challenges that seem to be slowing down commercialization.
Bottom line: Re Reliability KCC wrote: "Yes the question of “when is enough, enough?” is valid."
3. Re scalability and yields, he wrote: "again..yes, the question of yield is critical to answer here." For all we know poor yields could be stopping progress COLD.
KCC agrees with these as unknowns, but taken together these 4 items are a potentially troublesome in both the short AND the long term, so many may well be willing to wait 'as long as it takes', but I think KCC has said they really only have about 12 more months to make it, so these "challenges" must not be taken lightly by shareholders. .....
Re the ability to meet the 800Gpbs with PAM4, 200Gpbs per lane: I would like for that to be true, but as I pointed out the PR has some strangely vague wording - as it refers to testing a DESIGN "based on" and "leveraging" the 200mm modulators--AS OPPOSED TO testing those FOUNDRY modulators themselves!..Maybe it's just poor wording, but damn - why don't they just say it?
IF it is true - surely this would have been in the 10k. But from what I'm seeing it isn't::
KCC also said:
Expect a dead stock and no news over the next 6 months, folks. It's going to be a heavy burden for some imo. I'm sorry but that's my honest opinion and it's based on far more than tea leaves.
The Evidence - see for yourself there is no 'twisting' of facts here. This is just basic interpretation:
1. No transceiver demo. That nearly says it all. The potential partner (possibly the Tier1) apparently isn't convinced the tech is ready. Whatever that demo was - it falls short of what deems the tech to be seen as 'ready to go'. Dr Lebby recently said very clearly there are issues that are causing an impasse. But it is very telling that he has given no detail on what the issues are. "Reliability" and "Scalabiity" are incredibly broad descriptions that could include dozens or hundreds of details - or just one or two that stop everything. Nor has he said how long it could take to resolve them to potential customer's satisfaction -- ie when is enough - enough?. It's already a year longer than our 'guru' thought it would be and we are nearly as in the dark now as we were back then. People, THIS IS THE REASON HE REFUSED TO GO OVER GOALS LAST YEAR imo. He didn't want shareholders to know how far away they really were. And, IMO that is still the case.
2. Demo at the ASM announcement. It's a tell that even by ASM nothing should be expected, so they are trying to buoy hopes by doing a show and tell for shareholders.
3. Dr Lebby just said they will be showing potential customers demos like the one at OFC over the next 6 months. This is a tell to not expect anything for 6 months. Why ELSE did he say 6 months? No reason. He is re-setting shareholder expectations just like he said he would in the 4th qtr commentary, after having badly missed meeting expectations that were raised from the Dec 4 letter. He KNOWS there will be nothing exciting by ASM and he just doesn't want to deal with all that frustration--so he is dangling the 'demos and prototypes' carrot for the next 6 months..imo. If he had said "couple of months" shareholders would be chomping at the bit for ASM news, and the stock would collapse when it doesn't happens.
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But what about the technology and recent announcements? The idea that the modulator technology is NOW ready, is likely to be very wrong for these reasons:
1. The 10K says they are still developing the tech in house for 200Gbps. This implies that it is nowhere near being done or confirmed by a foundry.
2. Within a month of saying they are implementing 200Gbps with several foundries they completely backtracked by changing it to "planning to implement". Nobody with a brain does this by accident. This is a correction to the first and means they are still in the early stages and likely haven't even created any successful modulators for 200Gbps anywhere other than in their own lab.
3. He never said it was ready. The poling comments were off-the-cuff and not even in a PR or 8k, leaving much leeway for uncertainty about yields and consistency. And he could easily say they have created high yield, high volume modulators on many wafers in 200mm foundries that have been confirmed to run 200Gbps. He hasn't. If you read the PR closely it says the test was "based on ..a DESIGN" which LEVERAGES.the 200mm wafer modulators...all wiggly words. that are consistent with points #1 and #2.
It is POSSIBLE their communication is so bad or they are trying so hard to be coy that it is misleading, and that they did it at one foundry. But all of the messaging points the other way..There likely are still plenty of hurdles (ie he said reliability testing and scalability are issues) -]otherwise they wouldn't be resetting shareholder expectations so dramatically just after OFC and going into ASM.
Nonsense. Bard would regurgitate suggestions as "facts". Then when questioned on it, Bard would immediately apologize and admit it was still 'learning' -- AND then adjust its algorithm - or as you say -- 'scrub' --- it's own false "facts" based on the original suggestion.
Two piece of logic for you to ponder:
First, the very fact that Bard would take ANY wild suggestion and repeat it as though it was a fact just goes to show how LITTLE actual fact-based info Bard was working with.
Second: If the Google partnership were real, then so are the other 9 top semiconductor partnerships you repeatedly blasted on this board which resulted in a mini-rally of the stock last year about this time. Yet anyone with grey matter would know that if even ONE of those partnerships were meaningful the stock wouldn't be sitting near 52 week lows especially if the OFC demo was truly significant.
I'm sure it is getting better but the Bard people relied on was a joke...as are all the statements some have relied upon to determine that a deal is coming any day over the last dozen year..
No deals are likely over the next 6 months -- Dr Lebby just tried to reset shareholder expectations by giving an EXPLICIT 6 MONTH TIMEFRAME for more demos of the type seen at OFC.. Proto is right in saying that that doesn't PRECLUDE deals or progression toward deals but he also said that demos were happening 2 years ago...Those that are able to read the bigger picture see clearly what Dr Lebby is doing: He raised expectations in Dec in order to stop a share price falling like a rock. Then he had to eat crow and say something more truthful - ie that reliability and scalability concerns are DELAYING deals, and that he recognized there is a need for him to reset shareholder expectations.
And NOW - by giving the 6 months and announcing a demo at ASM , he is attempting to reduce the flak that would have been inevitable at the ASM after not getting a deal in 6 months after saying several are imminent.
There are 2 issues: First, is the tech ready to go. I think it is not. The second is even if the tech IS ready to go does the market want it? We have ZERO evidence that they do. Hypercenters are eyeing nuclear energy to reduce power https://www.lastenergy.com/blog/nuclear-energy-and-hyperscale-data-centers
and there is plenty of work utilizing VCSELS to reduce power consumption https://opg.optica.org/oe/fulltext.cfm?uri=oe-28-13-18931&id=432537
Even if Lightwave won't be needed once alternatives are embraced, if using Lightwave's modulators were EASY, one would think we would already have products in production. It has NOT been easy and IMO it continues to NOT be easy. They are hiding all kinds of 'somethings', imo
People that continue to hang onto the "credibility" issue are not giving proper weight to REAL reasons for the day of ASM announcement last year, nor the "deals coming real soon" announcement on Dec 4. It was all about avoiding an honest discussion and trying to keep hope alive even when it wasn't deserved. How can anyone not see that?
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Yep. The new expectations were set yesterday, and thanks to Proto for posting them. Was wondering if anyone else caught that.
Thanks PennyMover!
thanks!
KCC you misrepresented my post. Dr Lebby's unrealistic TIMELINES is what I posted about.
Those here that really seek the truth should read every word that follows carefully and give them honest reflection.
First a quick comment about Antwerp: What's the point? No non-public info can be released, yet they are requesting info that is not the same as he always presents. That simply doesn't compute. Does anyone really expect something other than carefully and cleverly worded sound bites that reveal nothing new? If it is new and it isn't made public, it is a potential SEC violation.
And a quick response to Tieprathy: You are misrepresenting my price predictions once again. To save readers from the nonsense I have put the evidence at the end of this post.
Back to your reply to my post, KCC: While I increasingly see the futility of trying to get the truth across, which will be unnecessary anyway imo as it will be evident in the coming months, I felt compelled to set the record straight after your highly distorted reply. But I won't be responding to any replies. Truth seekers will know that this post speaks for itself.
I stated originally that I don't believe Dr Lebby is 'giving his best guess', and that "He KNOWS the hurdles can take years, but gives wildly optimistic timelines for goals", and I gave two specific examples where he missed very big goals by a mile.
Your response talked about all the goals they have achieved (supposedly) and ignored the timelines given by Dr Lebby.
Is your misrepresentation intentional? Surely not! You know I have great respect for your willingness to dig into the research, but lately you seem to have unreasonably gone on the offensive against realistic challenges.
THERE ARE TWO ISSUES: THE REAL STATUS, and TIMELINESS
I'll address the one you seem so excited about first - THE REAL STATUS: You just posted on Wed:
what is the catalyst - sorry not seeing it?
This is what I don't believe is true:
👌Thanks for the correction.
How am I doing so far Steven? :
Feb 9:
Do we have an idea of how many resources are on the Santenna project? I saw $500k in grant money, but am not sure how much is for Santenna. Also, 2 of the FL professors are mentioned, but do they each have a team working on it, or is it just them? One of them is working on at least one other project, per a recent podcast. Would prefer an entire team dedicated to it and not two where one or both is part time. Too big an opportunity to not go all in.
TDRK pending merger with huge upside: 120 employee company, $12M in revs, $1.75M in EARNINGS projected for fiscal 2024
The preferred shares convert at .20 and the price is currently just over .02, so a HUGE premium to the current price.
The upside looks huge here. 120 employee company, $12M in revs, $1.75M in EARNINGS projected for fiscal 2024
The preferred shares convert at .20 and the price is currently just over .02, so a HUGE premium to the current price.
A primary motivation for my involvement here has always been to figure out the truth about the company irrespective of any valuation measures or desire to invest or not invest. In fact, I think it is THE primary motivation that has driven me. This company is an enigma..
With a one post allotment per day for the last 3 weeks, for reasons that remain unclear, my ability to discuss the company is too restrictive to be worth the effort anymore.
I've never been a short or had any kind of dealings with them, but most here don't care about the truth, as you have pointed out so poignantly.
Good bye Steven and other truth seekers. Good riddance to all others. Time will uncover the TRUTH.
For the sake of all who believe in that, I hope you are right. There are more than enough opportunities for everyone.
"electro-optic polymer-based modulators BASED ON 200mm silicon foundry wafers are ideal"
KCC, why do they use those words? Why don't they say FABRICATED IN foundries?
Am I reading it incorrectly?
We know the latest communcation in the annual shareholder letter on Dec 4 is that they are PLANNING - not IMPLEMENTING - but PLANNING to implement 4x200 with FOUNDRIES, so what in the world is Dr Lebby spinning this time? Is it definitive yet? Or is the more in-house research gobbledeegook?
Also, why are you so excited about full wafer scale when you said months ago it was something easy to do? I'm glad they are saying they achieved a goal - since at the ASM - 5 months after the Dec 19,2022 letter stating it as a 2023 objective, they were dead silent about wafer scale poling.
Lastly, why do you say the poling was done in the foundry? Couldn't they have poled the wafer after they received it from the foundry? "Thousands" sounds good - did they say how long it took? And, any mention of the yields? I recall you saying there are several types of poling....
There's always something important not being said by the company.. IF things are really so great, why no transceiver demo? .
If this news is signifcant, someone covering the BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS OF OFC will be writing about it. Popcorn is ready - will it go stale?
NOTE: I'm simply asking questions and stating company facts.
FACTS not FUD, but FUD is a really smart default position with this company
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4x200 PIC Now? Near? or Never? THE EVIDENCE:
First, the MISSING evidence:
The company has never said they have received fabricated devices from foundries for 4 channel, 800bpgs. Full Stop.
If the wafers the company has received were 4 channel, 800bpgs the company would say so IMO. No need to keep that a secret. Rather, the 10k speaks of a progression from 100gpbs, to 400 to 800, etc.. without saying what the foundries have fabricated.
Lewrock believes the wafer is 4x200:
For fact-lovers: Lewrock gave the response I predicted some will be having if things don't pan out:
Amazon is worried but they can't compete on price:" Amazon executives are concentrating in part on two aspects of their business they believe will continue to give them a competitive advantage: customer trust and fast delivery."
Temu could be a monster in the making.
While I personally don't use them because I don't buy much, and I find the games on their site very annoying, 2 people I know - Americans - one of which is not phone savvy at all - put up with the games on the site because they LOVE to get products at 90% off. It's incredible.
That's got my attention big time.
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Tea leaves - demo at ASM = no demo at OFC. 4 channel is still in the planning stage - it's all in the 10K and PRs - despite the wild interpretations of others here.
Sure they are TRYING, but obviously things are not on pace.
The projection for 800 transceivers by year end was imo a VERY forward looking statement that Lightwave has been known for making every year since it's existence.
How could they POSSIBLY know last May if they could have their modulators in 800gpbs transceivers when they hadn't achieved success on 200mm wafers with LESS than 4 channels even?(and even that "success" is obfuscated.)
Answer: They couldn't have. Marcelli still runs the show imo.
The company is trying to prop the stock price up as always to pay the bills.
But now they have to do that without losing face (again) after the Dec 4 letter - so he HAD to share the "reliability and scalability" concerns of potential clients.
It's all very clear. Shareholders here are incredibly naive. Have been since 2007.
Dr Lebby said it himself: This is a year of resetting shareholder expectations, creating demos and prototypes and telling the shareholder more. ie, more like last year but they gotta say something now to keep the price from dropping back down to earth. Wil it work? Shareholders here bend over a lot but there are lots of traders who won't stand for it.
Newcomers, read the Red Flags Sticky to see the reality about this company.
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Yep - in the right place for sure!
Yep, better for longs to say it. KCC, not sure if you saw this post yesterday about the unknown:
Since it has taken some 3 years to get a wafer back that isn't even 4 channel and that Dr Lebby has given no information about - ie no yield info, is it just 1 wafer, etc...
Why should any shareholder expect any kind of deal - much less be excited at this point - simply because the company says that 4 channel is now being PLANNED by the company?
We don't even know how acceptable or good the sub-800gpbs is.
SO, How do we know 4 channel won't take ANOTHER 3 years? It seems to me it is possible that it won't be linearly more difficult - but could be exponentially more difficult than 1 or 2 channels.
The 10k DID say they are working for prototypes "to" 800gpbs -- but there is no sign any foundry they have has produced a wafer with modulators that support that kind of bandwidth. Rather the 10K talks of "potential" and "current developing" in house, and "future"
As for the Linked-in comment: "prepping for" is all you need to know. It's too ambiguous to mean much. It ALWAYS sounds better than we want to think. You know - like Dr Lebby being "a keynote speaker" at OFC....
wow, can't blame you for stopping. thanks.
does the company answer direct questions? maybe you can ask them
sigh, but not of relief. I really wanted to believe in you Zach..but you purposefully kept shareholders in the dark about Soundstr imo. so... many....carrots...
People I know are getting $300 worth of goods for $30. It's pretty incredible. Buying long term calls here. Biggest threat is government action from U.S...but not yet hurting Amazon much..
Just reporte much higher than expected earnings and revenues
The news release yesterday had a lot of forward looking statements indicating the development with Nvidia is a work in progress and perhaps is even still in the early stages. Maybe my take is off on that, but that's how I read it.
That's not bad - they clearly have something of significance - customers like Walmart and Netflix don't take the decisions lightly, but the rollout may take just a little longer than I had originally thought. looking forward to early response revenues and further guidance.
Still think this could be a very big one over time.
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Exciting prospect here.
Great news. Finally some more public action may be on the way.
They are in the right spot at the right time. Looking forward to more updates as to how well it all is progressing - new usage, revenue growth projections, etc..
This looks like a homerun play that could accelerate very quickly.
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Target price $30 by Wainwright - was only a matter of time - the analysts were completely wrong and blown away by both the revenues and eps last quarter.
KCC, serious question. Since it has taken some 3 years to get a wafer back that isn't even 4 channel and that Dr Lebby has given no information about - ie no yield info, is it just 1 wafer, etc...
Why should any shareholder expect any kind of deal - much less be excited at this point - simply because the company says that 4 channel is now being PLANNED by the company?
We don't even know how acceptable or good the sub-800gpbs is.
SO, How do we know 4 channel won't take ANOTHER 3 years? It seems to me it is possible that it won't be linearly more difficult - but could be exponentially more difficult than 1 or 2 channels.
I DID misread the 10k - I didn't pick up on "per lane" so yes the 10k DID say they are working for prototypes to 800gpbs -- but there is no sign any foundry they have has produced a wafer with modulators that support that kind of bandwidth. Rather the 10K talks of "potential" and "current developing" in house, and "future"
As for the Linked-in comment: "prepping for" is all you need to know. It's too ambiguous to mean much.
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KCC, "we ..have ..received..wafers" means a hell of a lot to you.
While I follow your rationale, you are depending on confirmation that you say of "I very recently saw confirmation from the company that the foundry(s) are handling the polymer". You later say "we have confirmation". You is not we, of course so I'm curious what you saw that led you to this conclusion, as it is a critical issue that you said you were unsure about as recent as a few months ago. What did you see? Can you share?
You are now concluding that they basically met their 2023 goals for the BEOL process and now can produce in high volume. That's really a LOT to conclude from simply having received wafers, don't you think?
Isn't it a shame that the company only says they received wafers and you/me/all of us have to play Sherlock Holmes to try and piece together everything that he doesn't say, but easily could?
What if the wafers weren't poled by the foundry?
What if the wafers were poled by the foundry but the yields are poor?
You concluded the PDKs are done, yet the 10k still says this:
Ok, hopefully you understood the distinction between modulators received vs wafers received. A couple of posters here didn't seem to understand that was what I was questioning.
Receiving an entire wafer sounds more advanced than individual modulators, but it may also imply something about what/where the next steps are, since the wafers left the foundry and went straight to Lightwave, it would seem.
I'm interested in any comments you have re the IMEC relationship and that technology also.
I'm willing to change course here at any time. I just need to see the evidence that they are getting close to a strong ramp up. So far, I don't see that evidence, and the market seems to agree based on the chart.
While I "believe" the price is very overvalued, that could be wrong and is debatable. What is NOT wrong is that it trades at a high premium relative to other stocks that haven't yet commercialized (I guess they are technically, but it isn't the high revenue avenue so far). Having the 2nd highest market capitalization (ie value) of all stocks under $100k in revenue is simply a FACT..That, by definition, is considered a PREMIUM.
It MAY be that even at this high premium it is undervalued based on the potential, BUT that depends so so much on the true earnings potential which is still very uncertain because 1. the adoption is still very uncertain and 2. even if it gets adopted no-one knows the margins for Lightwave. What if they end up being far less than hoped?
My overall views which have landed on the skeptical side are based on feedback from the company, how well the company does what they say they are going to do, and multiple sources of external validation. I'll change them if and when I see a reason to.
The PRICE is one external validation. While it has a premium that is very high. the CHART just doesn't support the "big news soon" scenario. The price here has consistently followed investor sentiment - which is a measure of expectations raised and expectations dashed. Right now, people are nervous and have every right to be and the charts shows this. Despite the obsession here with shorts and conspiracy theories I've seen no evidence that anything other than retail confidence determines the stock price.
Re readiness for commercialization:, IMO the right interpretation of EVERYTHING TAKEN TOGETHER, is that they were NOT anywhere close to proving scalability or reliability at the last ASM, and so they could not possibly have been working out details on licensing with foundry or potential end users of the foundry technology, as was being insisted upon here.. How can anyone deny this today?
And - this is the part people don't like to hear - how can anyone have strong faith in the company after almost 10 more months went by before we were finally given a clue in the March 1 4th quarter commentary that there are still some issues they are doing their best to resolve, after they now have finally told us?
For newcomers reading this, there are DEFINITE CLUES to COMMERCIAL READINESS and they are from the company themselves.
Here they are in the link below The 200mm wafer issue is still unclear to me, but it appears to me they are only NOW doing some things everyone here thought were taken care of well over a year ago. Perhaps KCC will be able to shed further light on this:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174033570
Kcc do you agree with Proto’s take on what it means when the 10 k says that they have received wafers ranging up to 200 mm.? This appears to be new, as opposed to receiving modulators.
What does receiving an entire wafer imply?