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Sully, thanks for another good post and keeping a level headed perspective. Surely, nothing is all rosey or all bleak either and I truly believe that better days are ahead with significant pps appreciation. Trying not to beat a dead horse but nothing is going to happen (significantly) until the shorts get taken out. Actually, I don't think that will be difficult when the time comes because they (the shorts) have little upside (pps going down further). My belief is that they are still there to aid and abet in accumulation by the big boys. Most of all, I respect the opinions of everyone even though I don't agree with doom an gloom on this stock with new management, new drugs and Denner with his team and strategy. Just remember he has done this before and as an activist stockholder would not be putting his money and time (seriously, Chairman) into this unless he saw a significant outcome. By the way, I do believe (do the math with his shares and cost basis in Sarissa at last report) that he is currently underwater. Truly, I think he could care less at this moment in time because it is his plan and he knows what he is doing.
Sully, great post again and I couldn't agree more. Give Paris a chance and the past is the past as we can't do anything about it. By the way, no company president is expected to make major changes in less than two months on the job. I am optimistic that better times are ahead that will be significantly reflected in the pps.
Alpha, I totally agree with you about that fact that Ariad HAS NOT been a well run company and therefore lacks credibility. However, we are where we are and I am just trying to understand the dynamics of the short position and their ultimate exit (has to happen). Like you, I do not believe that the shorts are there to "fleece" retail investors but ultimately that may happen based on the retails ability to experience risk and chaotic pps behavior. In reality, the retails mean almost nothing to them or the big picture. But I do have to wonder why the shorts are staying where they are now given that there isn't much downside reward and a LOT of upside pain if they get caught. Thanks for your thoughts.
Thesaud, I like it too and I don't want to come across as being cynical either.
That said, to me IMHO, I would ask myself "who are the buyers and who are the sellers to achieve this type of volume (at least short term)?".
The buyers could be both "shorts covering" or "accumulation" by a whole gamut of institutions, day traders or retails (minor). The sellers are probably day traders or others who bought yesterday or shorted prior to that and are taking profits at target levels (not too greedy). At this point, I have zero confidence that an increase in pps will hold given these short term tactics.
The last thing in the world that I would want to be right now as a retail investor is to be short unless I was watching it minute by minute. I really do believe that the short covering will start without notice (could be months from now, I have no idea or prediction on that) and being caught in that without prior information or being a professional trader or MM doesn't look pretty. Of course being long at this moment in time for most of us isn't pretty either. That's why I advocate patience with some idea of what really is going on. I have the opinion that it doesn't have anything to do with fundamentals. Yet, I respect those that might take a more negative approach based on history, sales, etc.
Any additional input to this theory or ideas of what is actually happening with the trading of this stock would really be appreciated.
IMHO, at this point in time we are getting jerked around by the price action almost every day. Patience is the key in the face of frustration and angst as "they" take it up = HOPE and then take it down = SCARE TACTICS to accumulate and adjust their accounts. As I have posted before, nothing is going to happen with any significance until the short positions are significantly diminished. Until then, my advice is to hang in there and know that this is a difficult time by design and has absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals other than using anything in the least negative (not hitting an artificial earnings level or non credible brokerage rating games) to play it to their advantage. I still say that the dirth of news is an indicator of "sandbagging" knowing that it can be used at the right time later. Why use it (valuable ammunition) now when the shorts are still in control? I will say it again, "Denner knows what he is doing" and this is a different ballgame from the old regime. As usual, IMHO and thanks for listening.
Alpha, I agree 100% and think the company is finally on the right track. All is not rosey yet there is a path to better days. The past can not be changed and like you I think that it will come together with the building blocks already in place, a superior strategy and exceptional management. Denner and PP know what they are doing. IMHO
Rocky, I recommend that you talk to your brokerage firm who needs to set you up to be able to trade options. Many offer short courses so that you minimize outcomes that you did not want. Options can be complicated so I would recommend using simple calls or puts at first. My belief is that Ariad has bottomed or near a bottom and therefore has a lot of room to increase. Obviously, timing is a key unknown. IMHO
SS, Sully, JP........I couldn't agree more as this is a sign of better days ahead. My suggestion is that adding to positions at this time through simple options might be a good strategy for those interested. Reducing risk (least costly investment) with maximizing potential. Of course there is always risk. IMHO
Glass.......duly noted about the buyout NEWS. I have very little faith in news as it relates to cause and effect. Over and over and over we have seen good news and the pps falls. Or getting good news and the next day having a brokerage firm come out with a "SELL" rating. Right now it's a traders game pure and simple and with that any reaction of the pps to any news is precarious at best. I don't really care why the pps went up over $10 in September but rather that the shorts were already in place then to jerk it around at will. And then back way, way below the base level before the BO news. And they still are doing it at will.
I would like to hear theories why people think there are over 30M shorts at this point in time. Even if we agree that the bottom is $4.30, then why have they not covered? My opinion is that it is a mechanism for others to accumulate at low prices and to put into play a lot of uncertainty for those not in the know. IMHO
Obviously there are a lot of different opinions here about the potential of Ariad and it's past and present problems and opportunities.
I do have ONE observation that I do know almost for sure and that is ......."until the short positions are cleared out, the pps will not reflect the true supply and demand of the marketplace". You will not hear me say if and when the pps again gets to $8 for example that we are NOW off and running IF the shorts are still there in any degree. This past September is a great illustration in "head fakes" and "baiting" to entice and then the pps got slammed for no good fundamental or technical reason.
So there you have it, IMHO nothing is going to happen with any confidence (that "they" are not jerking us around) until we go back to a short position (traders, MM's, hedges) that can not manipulate the price. Mark my words and it can not happen soon enough.
Now this could happen overnight (as SS has exemplified in other BO situations) or it could be covering through big increases in volume or a short squeeze because of news. Please beware, if we get good news and the pps spikes and the short position doesn't go down then nothing significant is going to happen.
This is just my observation and as close that I can come to an "ironclad" outcome factor. I concur with the frustration right now due to the games going on with the traders. IMHO
I respect those who think that Ariad will not perform in some meaningful way in the future.
My opinion is different than that and don't think that the "value" of a company (in the eyes of the acquirer) is based on just hard numbers. More so, they are looking at talent, products, developmental processes, science and most of all potential. They are "buying" because they don't have it and for how it might add to/complement their operation as a fit.
Again, I absolutely can see the other point of view which at this point in time has merit. Everyone here wants to make money with a minimum of frustration at which we currently are at the apex in not knowing.
In the way that I think, if I felt so negative about an investment with so little confidence (especially with your historical perspective, knowledge of operations, science, etc and being here a lot longer), I would have sold it and moved on.
We are all different, each to their own and we will see. I admit, I could be wrong and certainly don't have any magical insight. Good luck.
To me it's pretty simple.......If you think this is going down, SELL and if you think it's going up either HOLD or ADD. The past is the past and there is nothing that can be done about it at this point. If you have confidence in Denner (and his track record, expertise, business savvy) along with his positioning (Chairman, BOD, Management, Science, etc) that has taken over two years to setup, then stay the course like me. With a hedge fund like Sarissa, Denner is NOT spending this much of his time and effort for just a 2X or 3X on his investment. With that, the institutions are following, adding, accumulating and playing short term games to fake, bait and more. It's all about timing and as someone pointed out a couple of days ago the M&A environment will heat up after all the recent turmoil in the market settles down. No predictions when that will happen but it will. IMHO
Sully, your post is right on and I totally support your conclusions. The last source in the world I would believe or who had credibility are the likes of RBC and BMO as they have an agenda which is absolutely biased in helping themselves and clients/partners alike. Watch what is happening right now and that is accumulation at artificially low levels (games too for that matter). Just remember that this was trading in 2013 over $20 with worse fundamentals. "They" (insiders and institutions) know something and follow the big, smart money. IMHO
JP, thank you for your kind words but I am in no way an expert about the biotech sector or any other sector for that matter. There appear to be many scientists here who are preeminent in their knowledge and experience with the science. I appreciate their input and sharing as I have learned a lot in the past 2+ years since owning this stock.
I do know some about trading and know what I am observing and the characteristics of patterns. I believe that there is a lot of gamesmanship going on based on the current pps (has nothing to do with fundamentals or supply and demand) and the large short position. There are experienced professionals in the know (we are not among that group) who have totally engineered this for the maximum ultimate outcome. There is no reason in the world for Ariad to be trading where it is now (especially since it was trading at over $10 as recently as September 2015) other than artificial factors....day trading, shorts and behind the scenes planning/negotiations for a buyout. As SS, has pointed out many times, "look at the accumulation going on" along with day traders jerking it around. Believe me, some company out there wants this science. Now it is just a matter of time and amount. Again, IMHO
Not to belabor this discussion but I see it going one of two ways:
1. Your illustration of IDIX where it jumped without warning on a BO
2. Allowing the shorts to get out and taking it to a mezzanine level of $9 -$12 (where we were in Sept 2015) and then doing the BO. In that scenario, it could do a double or triple with the result of getting into the $20's. Where we are now ($4-$6), it is tougher to "sell" a 4X or 5X and justify that type of premium to a buyer. Most of all, Denner knows what he is doing and how to maximize the outcome as he knows the industry and players very, very well.
Thanks again for the conversation about this and always interested in your take.
Do you know what was going on with IDIX prior to the "BAM" as far as trading ranges and history? I don't think it would take many days with substantial volume for the shorts to get out. Remember the volume only a couple of years ago? Something tells me based on trading patterns that they are all in bed together. Of course "we" don't know for sure and just are trying to read tea leaves at this point based on patterns and history. Isn't it wonderful that we know that we don't know? But I like your logic a lot.
SS, I respect your opinions a lot and read this board for your take and perspective. That said, I am sure there is a community of institutions and hedge funds who are talking and sharing information...past, present and future. Certainly, from the "get go" Denner has been the ring leader and passing off the signals. So we have that group and then there are the MM's who play the short game, take out stops, manipulate price and are in and out all over the place. As you have noted many times there are big time games on the bid and ask. My prediction is that at some time this year, the shorts will clear out and there will be a tacit agreement to then make money going long with positions already in place. In fact, probably the institutions have loaned out there shares for the shorts to tread water within a range and make money on the scared. These guys are in no hurry because they know what the rewards will be. Until then, the news will not drive this and management announcements will not drive this. If anyone is waiting for news to get the pps up and going, I think they are mistaken. More than ever, I DO NOT think there will be a short squeeze with those positions getting left behind. There is some type of understanding for that not to happen. I say that because we just have not seen a lot of up and down pressure from both sides. The "set up" needs to be completed until we go up appreciatively. Again, IMHO.
IMHO, until the short interest goes way down, the Ariad pps will not increase much. This is a game that the big money knows how to adjust and it's all about timing and positioning. The smart money (institutions/hedge funds) and retailers with some fortitude are sitting tight and waiting. My advice is to come back in 4-8 months and check in. Watching this everyday at this point and thinking that a lot is going to happen is an exercise in futility. That said, I am NOT selling one share because I believe there are huge increases to come in a buy out with Denner leading the charge and in the know. P A T I E N C E.
To give you my input about valuation...... I think there are two ways of valuing/selling/pricing as follows:
1. Market/Future Potential/Need Based
In this way a potential buyer is looking at "what could be" in getting a diamond in the rough along with meeting a market need (new or existing) within their organization. They are going to look at this as taking more risk and looking to the future in buying not only science but research techniques and talent. In one swoop, they can "outsource", eliminate time to get to market/needs and also reduce their overall risk vs. if they tried to do an internal startup. This is more risky but with a bigger reward if successful. I was listening to an interview today with Marissa Mayer of Yahoo and she was answering a question about some questionable acquisitions she made in her tenure (which she just had to write off). Her answer was basically....."you have to take chances to get a gem.....and we have done just that with others" So another company might have to acquire several to hit the home run. Thus this approach would be used.
2. Accounting/Financial/Current Science/Numbers Logic
This way is pure logic looking at a future stream of expected earnings based on the present along with assets, liabilities and other intangibles. Also, current science and proven results would be taken into consideration. It can be helpful especially in a situation involving liquidation and little potential. Obviously there is less risk here and more according to generally accepted accounting principles.
Right now at this very moment, I DO NOT think that the company is actually for sale (certainly not for $5-$15). There is a lot going on behind the scenes with trading games and positioning that will launch the pps into a position where it will then be for sale at a much greater pps. Ultimately, the best situation is for 2 or more companies to get into a bidding war. IMHO, Denner's job (and he is now in an ideal position) is to pitch this using all his experience and know how at exactly the right time. If and when that happens, I sincerely think that the Option 1 Valuation Method will happen.
Sully, I could not agree with you more about Denner. This is what I think and it is IMHO pure and simple. I would love to get yours and SS's and others take on what might be happening.
First, as of 9/30/15, Ariad was the second largest holding of Sarissa Capital at 12,850,000 shares totaling $75,044,000 (per their filing) which I calculate to be $5.84 per share. In addition, I would bet a lot of money that institutional positions will only increase including Sarissa after the PP was dropped. Also, there is no way that Denner is spending a lot of time with this company (CEO ousting, BOD work, Presidential Search, etc, etc) if he does not expect an exponential increase in pps by the time of a buyout/alliance. Remember in May during the interview when he was asked the question where he would put his money and with a huge smile he said "Ariad".
Secondly, right now this is like a Poker Game where "the PLAYERS" (not us retailers) are stacking the deck, playing with the pot and even looking at each others cards. There are two classes of investors here
1. The retailers that have no idea what is going on and from time to time get their hopes up and then are dashed in a few days/weeks/months. It is a complete given that we have no information about the plan and worse yet we are trying to interpret the signals in rational ways using what we learned in Economics....Supply and Demand. This has nothing to do with Supply and Demand but rather a "set up" that will be triggered when all the stars are aligned. And believe me, the trigger once it is pulled will be explosive.
2. The hedge funds, MM's and other players who shake and bake the pps at will using "scared" money and taking out stops and wanting cheap shares. They are literally jerking the pps around in order to borrow/loan options, accumulate cheap shares and in the end there is nothing reliable at present to understand day to day. Sometime (I have no idea when), the short positions will clear out, the options pricing will align and "they" (the big boys) will have done their accumulating. Until then there is nothing to do but watch and most importantly be patient and hold on.
Clearly, this is no fun for us and this is the painful part of possibly making money for some (me included) and recouping for others. Obviously, Denner loves the science and knows that the value of the company is all about the future science being applied by a bigger company who wants the additional revenue without the additional time (really important) and risky investment in their own research. Further, Ariad obviously has developed propriety methods of being able to add and add needed drugs which are valuable.
That is my take on it at present. Thanks for listening.
My last post of the day... I think that we (the retail investors) are all in this together with some here for 2+ years (like me) and and some much longer, some are scientists and experts and all together this process has seemingly not been logical on the surface. I do believe our theories of what is really going on "underneath" are very logical and the result of what we have seen in the past many months. I sense that a lot of news has been sandbagged for a roll out of sorts in a very orchestrated way. Denner is in control of both the throttle and brake and I am and want to be on that train. IMHO
Vid, I think that is a perfect analysis and very articulate. The point is that for now we can sit with some confidence and know that nothing is going to substantially move this stock until certain conditions are met........thus "the setup" must be completed. Thanks for sharing that perspective.
I appreciate your analysis and dialogue on this.
With that, I totally agree about this being a floor and the pps rattling around this level until "they" are ready to go higher. What fascinates me is the relationship with the "shorts" and how that will play out. I can't see them being hurt and with that will be given a chance to beneficially exit prior to the escalation in price. Therefore, I think that short interest must go way, way down before anything happens that starts the trip higher. IMHO too. Thanks again SS
SS, I have a lot of respect for your take on Ariad and how it will develop over some time period that we all are in the dark about. Can you agree that the shorts are still in control and that the pps will not reliably increase (higher highs and higher lows) until the shorts are taken out? I believe that to be true at this time because something tells me that there is a tacit agreement currently in effect in artificially controlling the pps so that accumulation can take place along with not hurting the shorts. At this point "everyone" (MM's, shorts, hedge funds) is NOT on board but when all are aligned (shorts out, big money accumulated) I believe then and only then will be see a building and building of pps in a reliable way. Right, now this can go up and down at the will of those in control....not supply/demand of the normal market forces. Just would like you take on this. Thanks
Surely, no one knows exactly about the timing but I do agree this is now looking better. Yesterday was about smart money taking out stops and accumulating. Stops at this point are so risky and my advice is to take them off. Right now this is purely about traders doing their thing and has nothing to do with fundamentals or the bright future. IMHO
2da, yours is a good question and the $20-$30 range is definitely an opinion based on the following factors IMHO:
1. Denner is positioning not on Mkt Caps or Revs but more so on an intrinsic value that is not based on pure numbers. He is or will pitch Ariad as a known entity that has developed drugs as a skilled team with experience and success. That is so valuable to a big drug company especially if it is filling a void in their own ability and pipeline. Denner's job is finding that niche and then presenting in a way to maximize return. He has done it before and IMHO he will do it with this company.
2. Hopefully, a bidding war of sorts will break out where there is 2 or more interested parties as the news comes out. Based on little news in the past many months, Denner is holding his cards close and wanting to play them for all they are worth. He knows that he has one shot at it and is the person to get results based on past experience and performance. This is a pro at the highest level who will be running and holding the auction.
3. I think that the hedge funds will be looking at least 4-5 times their acquisition pps level. Also, Ariad had a history of the mid-twenties before mismanagement led us to this level.
Many may disagree with this analysis but it is my best shot at what I think will happen in time. The holes are not per se with the logic but rather with the absolute numbers. At this point, Denner in selling the company is an artist/engineer/salesman not a logical scientist. In a nutshell, the buyout price is not all about logic but rather what some company is willing to pay based on need and potential not just a future revenue level. With that I absolutely respect your approach and it always could go for less.....that's just not what I think at this point. Thanks to you too. With respect.
SS, you are one of several on this board who I appreciate so much with your support and analysis. Some know the science, some know the trading end and in the end it has been so valuable for me in holding on. Thank you so much to those who have contributed with rational, consistent and steady input. Full disclosure.....I have one on IGNORE.
The way I see it for what it's worth
Denner is now in total control with his hand picked CEO and also the poison pill eliminated. The next disclosure of holdings will in all probability show an increase by Sarissa et al hedge funds. The time that Denner has spent on this stock in the past two years now only reinforces to me that he is in it for a very significant increase in the pps going into a buyout.
Further I think there has been a symbiotic relationship between the hedge funds and shorts along with the MM's in engineering (not to use the term manipulation as that sounds negative) so that the pps is held down while accumulation is going on. I doubt if the pps will significantly increase until the shorts are cleared out and when that happens it will rise to a pre-buyout pps point.
In addition, this increase in pps will be the jump off point for a buyout by a larger company who then and only then can support a significant premium. Certainly I don't know the buyout price, but I do know it will be a lot easier to justify to their board a $20-$30 level from $15 vs. $5. Sarissa and the other hedge funds have not tied up their money to just get a double or triple and therefore are setting this up to make a name for themselves. And don't forget all of Denner's valuable time in reorganizing the BOD, getting Dr. Berger out of the way, hiring a new CEO and all that goes with the financial community namely other hedge funds, MM's and more.
Ariad, has further had their pps engineered by almost a total lack of news or any impetus for a pps increase that will hold. This is not a stock for the faint of heart as I presume many retail investors have already been stopped out and/or sold out of fear. That has played into the hands of the big boys accumulating who know where this is going.
Anyway, read this for what it's worth. I have been involved for over 2 years now and it has been a wild ride of waiting, watching and most of all hanging in there with little news or smoke signals about what is really going on. Finally, I think we can see the light at the end of the tunnel (no predictions of time frame though) and know that the right people are in the drivers seat who are using the excellent science now and with more to come in the right way (not jumping the gun). I predict that they will hold their powder until the time is absolutely ideal and then make things happen with pps, etc. IMHO and thanks for listening
My advice is to retread the recent (last two weeks) article re: Naked Shorts and the manipulation/games/illegal stuff going on. For sure IMHO, it HAS and IS happening to Ariad however NOW, the shorts are covering, there is new management and there are several companies wanting the science and drugs. The bad stuff is in the past and my hope is that in 2016 a bidding war of sorts will start and that the PPS will reflect a true demand for acquisition and all the Ariad is really about fundamentally. It will happen, just a matter of time and no one can predict that date with certainty. Again, stay the course and watch with optimism. Again, IMHO
SS, Happy holidays to you too and the others here that have given so much of their time and thought power. I look at this board a couple of times a day since I have a significant stake in Ariad. My core belief in the past 2+ years is that better days are ahead and to follow the money. Denner has not tied up a significant amount of time and money for almost 2 years now to get out with only a 3-4 banger. This CEO appointment tells me that he is in this for serious money and will do whatever it takes to get a buyout in the 20's at least. This company has a lot going for it and now has the guidance and tools to position itself for a significant outcome. Stay the course and always look at the big picture is my advice. IMHO.
Yes thanks, SS. I believe that too and appreciate so much your take on what has, is and will happen with this stock. Your steady, rational and timely posts have been very helpful to me and I thank you. Timing is extremely difficult to predict yet with a new CEO and Denner running things, there for sure will be a real strategy that maximizes return instead of political egos along empire and fiefdom building.
SS and others......lets hope that the longs now take control and no more false starts and then shakes. My advice is stay the course and don't let them (short, MM's, funds) buy YOUR cheap shares at this or lower levels. I can't say for sure that there will not be any more sharp downturns like what we saw last week. Yet I am hopeful that we are at the end of "that" pattern and onward to a path of higher highs based on good fundamentals and no more games and scare tactics. This is not for the faint of heart and I think that for those who hang in there, the rewards will be well worth the stress. IMHO.
I agree SS and certainly this is not a time to panic as I have to think that there is a sort of "wink and nod" going on to allow short covering, shaking out the weak hands and obtaining the necessary cheap shares in order for the shorts not be hurt too bad. I can't believe that any rational entity would be short at this time without some assurance that they would be allowed to get out in an orderly fashion...i.e. not a victim of a short squeeze. Yet it is hard to believe that 30M+ shares can easily cover. For sure, my advice is to hang on, don't panic, sit back and try and "enjoy" the show. Yes, it stinks for retail investors who have don't have all of the information needed to make logical decisions and strategy. It is a tough time if someone is relatively new to this stock and can be taken advantage of. IMHO of course.
I totally agree. What has been going on is a long term shake of sorts, accumulation by the big boys, news blackout (incredible), a lot going on behind the scenes with product developments and management changes, the smart money wanting weak shares, insiders in the know (definitely not retail investors) and it all adding up to a waiting game, more than normal fear and a lot of negative speculation. Good things will accrue to those who can stomach the uncertainty and who are patient beyond almost the extreme. Not for the weak. One principle that might be helpful is that this company is NOT less valuable/attractive now than the pre 2013 crash. IMHO Denner is a financial engineer(pure and simple) and in the process of completing his work. Soon.
IMHO, there is a lot going on behind the scenes and most likely there are companies "in the know" that are bidding based on the likelihood of one or more of the drugs being winners. They know a lot more than we do about the true "value" and therefore don't want to lose the deal vs overpaying. We have to look at it like they are from a cost/benefit point of view which is time/expense to develop a drug (s),getting to market and using the synergy of their own products/distribution to maximize return.
It is hard to sit and watch and theorize (certainly that is what I am doing with this post) yet trying to base our opinions on the most likely outcome. I do know that Denner did not invest for almost 2 years now in something that is a mere 2X - 4X winner. That is not what they (hedge funds) do in being successful with a lot of eggs in one basket..i.e. Ariad. He knows how to wait and posture to maximize return. For me there is no doubt with that in reading the current tea leaves and the trail of what has happened and perhaps more importantly what has not happened (lack of PR's, lack of a visible search for a CEO, shorts, stock price being manipulated short term, etc). Like I wrote at the beginning, IMHO
Believe me with Sarrisa owning the Aria stock that they do, Denner is NOT inactive by any means. Definitely, he is the player behind the scenes in allowing other institutions to add and IMHO at this point protecting the shorts for a reason that we do not know. Just a matter of time for the entire scenario to unravel. There is a plan and the retail investors (including myself) will be the last to know.
Negotiating Process.........IMHO, in all probability, Ariad is "For Sale" and due to it's current positioning that does NOT mean "Fire Sale". That said, what could be happening is that because of many factors involved including, trials, partnering, marketing relationships, financing, etc, the asking price keeps going up. With those variables in play it is only wise to wait out the process in getting the best price. Why sell low when with so many good things happening or that could happen the eventual buyout (perhaps in 3-12 months) could and would be a lot more per share? I believe that Denner is truly an excellent and savy financial engineer and he knows what he is doing in this arena (buyout and maximizing shareholder value) for he is absolutely in this with us. For sure, we do not know what is going on behind the scenes but all indications lead me to believe that patience is the key and that jumping to negative conclusions is short sighted as the day to day tea leaves (trading patterns) can be very misleading. I would just say be patient and keep the faith.........I am.
Thanks, I get it with the Options and Puts to protect a long position.........but Puts are not owning the stock short and that was my question.
Could you elaborate how that works?
If I owned 100 shares long and 50 shares short, why wouldn't I simplify and just own 50 shares long for I would have the same exposure. Perhaps there is a more sophiticated tactic that you know of that reduces risk? Also, at what PPS do you think the approximate 45 million shorts are priced at? Just curious for I have no idea and no idea why they are not covering with the consensus that Ariad is a "Buy" by almost all who are credible at the current level.
Tough Period that requires Patience....IMHO, this has been and will be a period of uncertainty NOT with regard to the outcome but rather the timing. The past 2-3 months have been void of solid, regular news and with that a period of "financial" engineering that will result in a buy out sooner than later. The timing is really tough to predict due to the "Denner Factor" who will demand maximum value and is willing to negotiate the best outcome with more than one bidder. All the moves point to that. I admit that days like yesterday are tough to watch yet the bear raids are a desperation move to keep the pps down to buy some time in allowing shorts to cover (not sure what they are waiting for at this point...any ideas?? and institutions to add (with that volume someone is adding big time). Most of all, it is important to hang on and not put stops in that can be taken out from the MM's who absolutely rely on fear and the naysayers to help their cause. For sure, we need a short squeeze to help this along which will probably be due to some "great" news where the bulls truly rule the day and where there is no way for shorts to manipulate. We all are waiting..........tick....tock. Optimistically......IMO