To give you my input about valuation...... I think there are two ways of valuing/selling/pricing as follows:
1. Market/Future Potential/Need Based
In this way a potential buyer is looking at "what could be" in getting a diamond in the rough along with meeting a market need (new or existing) within their organization. They are going to look at this as taking more risk and looking to the future in buying not only science but research techniques and talent. In one swoop, they can "outsource", eliminate time to get to market/needs and also reduce their overall risk vs. if they tried to do an internal startup. This is more risky but with a bigger reward if successful. I was listening to an interview today with Marissa Mayer of Yahoo and she was answering a question about some questionable acquisitions she made in her tenure (which she just had to write off). Her answer was basically....."you have to take chances to get a gem.....and we have done just that with others" So another company might have to acquire several to hit the home run. Thus this approach would be used.
2. Accounting/Financial/Current Science/Numbers Logic
This way is pure logic looking at a future stream of expected earnings based on the present along with assets, liabilities and other intangibles. Also, current science and proven results would be taken into consideration. It can be helpful especially in a situation involving liquidation and little potential. Obviously there is less risk here and more according to generally accepted accounting principles.
Right now at this very moment, I DO NOT think that the company is actually for sale (certainly not for $5-$15). There is a lot going on behind the scenes with trading games and positioning that will launch the pps into a position where it will then be for sale at a much greater pps. Ultimately, the best situation is for 2 or more companies to get into a bidding war. IMHO, Denner's job (and he is now in an ideal position) is to pitch this using all his experience and know how at exactly the right time. If and when that happens, I sincerely think that the Option 1 Valuation Method will happen.
AI
