Obviously there are a lot of different opinions here about the potential of Ariad and it's past and present problems and opportunities.
I do have ONE observation that I do know almost for sure and that is ......."until the short positions are cleared out, the pps will not reflect the true supply and demand of the marketplace". You will not hear me say if and when the pps again gets to $8 for example that we are NOW off and running IF the shorts are still there in any degree. This past September is a great illustration in "head fakes" and "baiting" to entice and then the pps got slammed for no good fundamental or technical reason.
So there you have it, IMHO nothing is going to happen with any confidence (that "they" are not jerking us around) until we go back to a short position (traders, MM's, hedges) that can not manipulate the price. Mark my words and it can not happen soon enough.
Now this could happen overnight (as SS has exemplified in other BO situations) or it could be covering through big increases in volume or a short squeeze because of news. Please beware, if we get good news and the pps spikes and the short position doesn't go down then nothing significant is going to happen.
This is just my observation and as close that I can come to an "ironclad" outcome factor. I concur with the frustration right now due to the games going on with the traders. IMHO