SDP - anyone tempted to short utilities soon? seems silly that XLU is yielding less than the 10yr treasury. Plus, I'm wondering if governments start to scrutinize these companies more with utility bills through the roof, and likely worse this coming winter.

Got it, that's quite interesting, thanks for the clarification and info!

What's the criteria for this entry/exit strategy? If I'm understanding this correctly, you are just showing the annual return/drawdown data for the SPY and QQQ indices.

Personally, I think that the historical time frame you are looking at may be too short. The entire historical record occurs during a period of falling rates.

It's certainly possible that inflation/rates peak next year and we end up in the same low rate (i.e. ~ 4% inflation or lower) that we've been in for the last 3 decades. Lately, I've looked at the late 1960s as a potential analogue for current market conditions. Peak to trough on the S&P500 was ~ -38% and it occurred over a period of ~2 years (and of course there was the larger pullback in the early 1970s).

RTMAF/RTMNF - thanks for input, no worries on the delay. We've been traveling the last 5 weeks too and are finally done for a while. Weddings galore.

Still holding as well, and I'm not surprised by the performance given the overall market.

BGSF/TSRI/HSII - BGSF earnings look solid:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bgsf-inc-announces-first-quarter-214200914.html

I've got bids in and it's very close to my buying range. I probably would've bought a bit of BGSF today, but did you see the reaction to the HSII report? HSII got destroyed and I didn't really understand what was so bad about their report. Granted, executive search deserves a lower earnings multiple and there may be details I'm missing, as I'm not that familiar with the stock.

Looks like BGSF has a bit of debt still based on the earnings release? Need to see the 10Q though to be sure.

Re TSRI, my GTC order had 11 shares filled today lol

RTMAF/RTMNF - what did you think of the quarter? Looked good, although costs increased more than I'd like. Still very cheap I think.

TSRI - Not yet, but I've got bids in. Like you said, the main thing is the wait until August. I think that will weigh into June. I'm also trying to be pickier with staffing companies. I'm pretty overweight in the sector, including HSON, CWLPF, and JOB. Plus watching BGSF and some others.

TSRI - kind of a bizarre quarter:
TSRI 3Q results

Revenues were quite a bit better than I was expecting, but they just broke even on the bottom line. Management seems to be somewhat clever and was able to raise money by selling shares last week during the low float pop.

Not really sure what to think, although I'm happy I to have sold most of my shares.

TSRI - pure silliness. I think you and Gil made the point that the low float/irrationality in small caps seems to just be a part of the market now (been going on for years). I always keep a small amount of shares now for this type of crap. The interesting part on TSRI is we haven't seen the usual huge volume uptick that often happens with these runs.

TSRI - sold some more 12.35. Certainly agree that it seems way ahead of itself ahead of earnings.

TSRI - yeah surprising strength. One of my sell orders just hit, so I'll plan to hold about half of what I had into earnings (unless we see an even bigger run here).

As a side note, you ever look at BGSF? I've got no position, but it's staffing and now focused only on the professional side after selling off their light industrial business for ~$32 million (I don't think they got a good price). Insiders buying, etc. but now YoY comps will suck with the loss of all that revenue.

MBCF/IFOS.V - I should've bought even more at the time. Still have my entire position. They are saying FCF of ~$150 million EBITDA of ~$200 million, and basic EPS of ~0.55 so the valuation multiples still look pretty good. Plus, they've got a bunch of monetizable non-core assets they could sell off.

My baseline case if the fertilizer market holds up is that fair value is around $5, then might overshoot to the upside because average daily volume still indicates no one big is in (still only ~300K/day on the TSXV).

TSRI - I'm still holding, but totally understand why you took some off the table. I'm considering it too at these levels. And thanks for quote from the 10-K. I think the primary avenue for a big Q3 is further reduction in SG&A, but we'll see. Like you point out, it's very unlikely to be through increased revenues/gross margin relative to Q2.

TSRI - been reloading in the high 8s/low 9s. YoY comp should be good. However, I think it may be a bit lighter than last quarter because of seasonality with the holidays. With that said, Q3 of last year was better than Q2.

RTMAF/RTMNF - nice, I've been doing a bit of flipping back and forth from RET.V (RTMNF) to RET.A.V (RTMAF) and vice versa, depending on how big the differential gets (RET.V can really get ahead of RET.A.V). Looking for financials within the next 2 weeks.

FWIW, my sense is consumers in Canada are less pessimistic about inflation than in the U.S.

LSEA - thanks R59, much appreciated. I did see that it was 10:1, which is less than ideal. Nevertheless, my thinking was along the lines that the warrants have traded up into the high 0.20s and low 0.30s while the stock was in the high 8s and low 9s last year.

LSEA - insiders buying a bunch the last few days.

Warrants (LSEAW) look interesting here, so bought a few.

KPLUY - ended up adding a small amount of this to the basket of fertilizer crap I own, one issue here is the Euro's weakness. Meant to reply to your message with this post too:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=168062068

Saw this headline too...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russian-ministry-recommends-fertilizer-producers-halt-exports

Based in Canada, which certainly has its drawbacks for other parts of the market. However, in this instance, it is easier.

GDLLF - I bought my shares back yesterday on that silly drop to 2.55 on the CAD ticker (GEO.TO). It looks like it's ready for a more sustained move, especially with the mining sector getting so much attention now.

MJDLF - have owned for a while, and haven't traded it when I should have, so ended up riding it up and down for the last 6 months or so (cost basis is 7.59 on CAD ticker MDI.TO)

YARIY/KPLUY - you have a read on the potential of these two bigger fertilizer producers?

Can't tell how much Russia exposure YARIY has, but it hasn't run at all. Have yet to do much research. Got stuck researching a bunch of small cap potash/phosphate turds first.

KPLUY would seem to really benefit from Russian/Belarussians getting knocked out of market, granted it's already

CSPI - thanks for alert, joined you at 6.72

Russian Ruble - didn't think the sanctions/economic measures by USA/Europe would be this effective:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

Impressive.

MOS - guess we should've piled in yesterday

I'm not hedging again yet, sadly, I think this is a situation where if things get worse it's better for the market. i.e. Powell has an excuse to tighten less quickly.

Back in 2011 to 2014, it would go something like this: the worse the employment report was, the better the market would react because of how the Fed would interpret that data. I think we are in a similar circumstance now.

IFOS.V/MBCF - bought some of this phosphate producer a few days ago. Main mine is in Idaho. I think the phosphates market will be stronger than the potash market. Mine life is the main drawback here.

Also own CRP.TO (although the way this one trades is a total mystery to me).

Watching DAN.V, ARTW, CMP and there's a bunch of other phosphate/potash prospect plays that are pure hype. Most of the hype plays are already trading higher than I'd like, since the clowns ran them up at the beginning of last year.

SARK/SOGU - sold out of SARK at 56.70 and plan on selling SOGU at some point today. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed hikes rates slower as a result of the horrible news out of Ukraine.

Made some, but not enough to offset current long positions.

HSON - yes, thanks again for bring this one to the board! I have some at an average of ~21.50, looks like it's ~3% of my portfolio. Haven't taken any profits in a while because I like the fundamentals/professional staffing tailwinds a lot. I could easily get burned though, since it's still a 1 quarter wonder.

GENC - thoughts on the quarter? not great they reported on a Friday...backlog still looking good

TSRI - a nice pullback for sure, I'd love to add some in the low 9s

edit: meant to reply to hweb:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167860781

Beaten-down growth stock list

It looks like growth stocks could continue to get trashed and I’ve been compiling a list of companies that may have pretty good mid-term to long-term prospects.

I’d welcome feedback and criticism.

Disclaimer: all are high risk, do your own DD


POSH – own and plan on adding
-Yes, at first glance it’s dubious, but it’s quietly becoming an extremely popular phone app (see AppAnnie, or other similar website that tracks this stuff).
-Recently, it’s become as popular a shopping app as Etsy, Ebay, Target, etc. Young folks are much more into the secondhand market, especially with clothes, handbags, etc.
-The platform is for buying and selling used clothes/designer goods, but has many social media elements to it
-From a fundamentals standpoint, they have ~$7 cash, which provides downside protection. I figure ~10 bucks is close to worst case scenario
-Depop, a competitor, was bought out for $1.4 billion by Etsy and was smaller than Poshmark at the time (sure, acquisition could have been a mistake, but it gives you a sense of what the guys running the two-sided markets think).
-When/if they ramp up I think they can do 20% EBITDA margins, comparable to the rest of the sector

BRLT – own, trading the swings, probably will add to core position.
-[url]https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166949504
[/url][tag]see previous post[/tag],
-Still like it at $10 or $11, already profitable and I think fundamentals will get pretty interesting this coming year.

BMBL – don’t own, but think they are MTCH’s strongest competitor in dating. I think it might get attractive in the mid teens. I think their Badoo segment is worthless.

HNST – don’t own, but I think there’s value in the brand. Seventh Generation is a very similar brand. Unilever bought out Seventh Generation in 2016 for $700 million. Seventh Generation’s sales at the time were ~$200 million. HNST has revenue growth, so it’s a matter of profitability now. On the negative side, I’m hesitant because of Jessica Alba’s involvement/the baggage that comes with that type of celebrity ownership.

All my opinion

RTMNF - agree on the marketplace idea, certainly could be a money pit, hopefully they are reasonable with spending in that area.

Very true about Canadian stocks. I can't tell you the amount of times I've been able to buy something at the open on a great earnings report/news that's barely above the previous closing price. Sometimes, it pops and I sell it a few hours later because of slow reaction times at the opening. In fact, I've done this multiple times with GEO.TO. It's kind of astounding.

But you're absolutely right, things do tend to appreciate/approach fair value more slowly, and poor liquidity often produces wild swings.

RTMNF - bought more today, been buying in Canada via ticker RET.V. Paid 1.91 today and have more bids lower.

I'm assuming that RET.V and RET.A.V should trade at approximately the same price?

SOGU - nice alert, tempted to hedge my longs with this on this market upturn. The underlying holdings in the long ETF (DSPC) seem to be a true pile of crap for the most part:

https://despacetfs.com/dspc-holdings/

Anyone buy in previously?

RTMNF - also meant to add in my last reply:

-I think it should trade close to the earnings multiples of ROOT.TO (maybe not at exactly the same multiple but 50% to 75% of it would seem reasonable)

-first post about RTMNF should have said "I have way to much cash", rather than "I have way too much too", hence I initiated a position today.

RTMNF - yes, one data point certainly means nothing.

My wife says the comparable brands in the USA might be as follows (we are both expats):

Pennington's - plus size, women's only, like you said, it's not casual wear, perhaps best comparison is Torrid except the stores are bigger and Torrid is mall-based (walked by Torrid yesterday too and there were a decent amount of folks in it).

Reitmans - women's only, in terms of type of clothes they carry, the best comparisons are Suzy Shier and possibly Express (except Express sells men's clothing too). For both our sakes, let's hope Express isn't an exact comparison lol. I do think that the reputation is better than Express' in Canada and they are often present in many smaller cities/towns.

RW&CO - she wasn't familiar enough to make a comparison and I've never been to one of the stores.

And yes, I was kind of stunned to read some of those articles about weight gain. Perhaps WW is the play :P? Always remember, Canadians are skinnier than Americans, but there's certainly obesity problems up here too.

RTMNF/RET.V - started buying some (2.15 on CAD issue), rather than keep fooling around. I have way too much too. I have more bids lower. FWIW, the Pennington's I parked by over the weekend was busy.

RTMNF/RET.V - you still holding or did you trade it?

Have to wait a while until earnings, but still looks attractive. Pushed my bids way lower during the overall market downturn, so none have quite hit yet.

TZOO - bought a few at 9.01 as a play on travel. Sure, it's mostly a piece of crap, but I think it has potential.

-other travel stocks have already run up a lot by comparison
-~5 bucks in cash per share
-fundamentals starting to improve (although I expect little from this upcoming quarter)
-and, most importantly, things are tracking well on google trends:

insert-text-here

insert-text-here

Perhaps the more important indicator of their performance is traffic out of the UK.

all my opinion

JVA - that's my understanding. Granted, they always seem to have a ton of adjustments and charges.

I held my shares. Plus, don't have to wait terribly long for Q1 in early March.