Good morning, all Renko chartists...if you've played with the charts a bit, by now you've seen some of the limitations, as well as the possibilities.

This is not the Grail..or a get-rich-quick scheme. It also requires some discipline and reliance on people (they make the markets) acting as they have always acted..torn between greed and fear. I think it is a pretty safe bet they will continue to act in the same way. Which means, that markets will move up and down..and by capturing a part (most, hopefully) of the price moves, we can make a living.

No one has asked what my historical returns are, but for information, they have ranged from 25% annually to 60% using a 2X vehicle (NDX for the most part through Rydex). I am recently converted to the 2X MID etfs (MVV/MZZ) and accounts at IB. I have reason to believe those returns will be enhanced, based on what I have seen and the back-test returns for what is a limited time on those etfs. I do not need to have better returns, and would be quite satisfied if they remained in the 25-60% range.

I realize this method is not exciting..there will probably be few that stick to it. Good luck with whatever method works best for you. Regards to all.

Gleno..yes, I have wondered that about myself as well. I wonder if I would have recognized him as the Lord..the Son of God? I wonder if I would have had the courage to boldly proclaim him and his divine mission, despite the almost certain sentence of being cruelly put to death? I wonder if I would have denied him at a crucial time?

We were not born at that time, so we were not placed to that test. Still, we are tested now, in this time, in this place. Will we testify of him? Will we serve in His name? Will we keep his commandments, and when we fail, will we redouble our efforts? Will we stand against the reality of Lucifer and his evil designs that are manifested in the world of mankind? That also is a great test, and the one that we will some day account for, in the great day of judgement.

sammy..good to hear from you. Yes, I wish I had known of them years ago..I did a lot of labor using P&F charts that could have been used in better ways. The MVP system we both use is having a great period..and I think Steve has done a wonderful job. I don't think MVP will quit working..but I have seen other timing systems that did..and since I trade my retirement money I have to be a bit cautious. I don't think waves or cycles or trends will ever stop...they never have in recorded history. Therefore I use about 50% in MVP and about 50% in trend following. Regards.

learning..I re-read your post. You are not correct in your assesment of what it takes to create a new brick. It is not a "violation" of a price during that period...it is the closing of that time period with the box or brick filled.

It should be thought of as a filling of a box at the close of a period. If a box fills during a period, and a new brick appears..yet later in that period the price drops below the fill of the box..that brick will disappear again. Capece?

learning..I understand ATR in the same way..the 14 is the last 14 periods of data.

In a trend..a brick is formed if the price contines in the same direction that it has been moving, the amount of the brick size and therefore fills that brick or box..it will then show the additional brick.

In a trend reversal..the price has to reverse back through the amount of the last brick displayed, plus the same amout in order to show a reversal brick. That means in a trend reversal..the change in price is 2 bricks in size.

Let me know if that is still confusing.

"They claim to be good Christians, but would be the first to crucify Jesus if he reappeared spreading the message that we should show concern about the poor and disadvantaged, and castigating the moneychangers."

Is that what you think liberalism is about?? How naive you are...how about asking for floor time at the Dems convention in Denver to talk about the words and teachings of Jesus? Do you think they would let anyone speak about Jesus? What a hoot.

Will there be a prayer at the Dem convention? Will they invoke the name of Jesus in that prayer? Will they recite the Pledge of Allegiance?........how many will repeat the words in the pledge "under God"? How many liberals will honor it if they do mouth it?? What a hoot the liberals are..you know exactly how Jesus will be regarded at any liberal gathering.

You are a hypocrite to use the words of Jesus to infer that liberalism is consistent with His teachings. I don't think Jesus is either a Dem or Rep..but I do know that many Republicans give freely of their means to the poor..they do it through many charitable organizations..Republicans are higher in church membership, and church attendance as shown by several polls. None are perfect, but most Republicans at least try to be better in keeping all of the commandments of God. The Dems do not even try (most of them), and in fact flaunt many of the more serious sins..and many deny his existence or power...........I suspect that includes you.

learning or anyone else...if you are looking at Renko charts..let me suggest that you look at somewhat shorter periods than the ATR(14) default. Perhaps that default is just right for you..but it is a bit long for me.

Also, look at various indexes...not all indexes are equal as far as reducing whipsaws. Whipsaw reverals of only one box are big return reducers..reversals of two boxes are not bad. A whipsaw reversal of only one box, and then the original trend continues, costs you a return of 4 price boxes.....because you are in the wrong or losing etf for those 4 price boxes.

I found the NDX and RUT to give too many one box reversals at any box size I tried. The MID is a bit better behaved..and without the recent financial volatility, the SPY is also pretty good.

It is a learning process....you will probably change your mind 5 times before you settle on a specific box size for a specific index. I did. Regards.

learning...no..in order to create a new brick upwards ( a first white brick), requires a change of two brick sizes. Since your brick size determined by ATR is 42.65, then the NDX must reach (2)42.65=85.30 point change. Add the 85.30 to the "bottom" of the last red brick shown which is at 1876.60 and you will see that a reversal occurs at an NDX price of 1961.90. Hope this helps.

Hi Be...thanks for the linked video from breakpointtrading..there is some good stuff to consider.

I think it boils down to only a couple of things:

1. What is the trigger point (price level) that a trend change MUST be acknowledged, and action taken at that point?

A. That is something everyone has to decide for themselves...my tolerance and goals are not the same as yours, or necessarily anyone elses.

B. The means of determining that trigger point can be done in many ways..traditional TA uses of moving averages, stochastics, zig-zags, etc. are viable. The principal thing is that the trigger point must always be the trigger point....in other words..in a cross-over there may be the tendency to say to yourself :"well, it's just barely crossed over..maybe it will start to go the other way in the next 15 min, or day, or whatever period you are trading." It is why I like "filling the box". There is no ambiguity..either the box indicating a reversal is filled at the close of the trade period..or it is not. It is a "0" and "1" answer..........those of us who think Boolean, or digitally, can recognize and respect that. Either the switch is closed, or the switch is open.

2. The problem with making a good living using a trend trading system like this is only with ourselves. If we do a reasonable job at 1A of picking a trigger point that will be honored, we cannot fail to succeed in a longer term..

There unavoidably will be whipsaws...guaranteed..that means short term losses. Can you handle that? You'd be surprised how few can..there will also be profits to be made on the longer trends. Staying on the right side of the trend, and not trying to trade against it, in the hope of scalping a few bucks, is the safest, and easiest way to make a living from the market. Let the other guy stew about what is going to happen..wait until it has happened as shown by the Renko chart, and buy or sell as appropriate.

Regards.

"But inside, they are scared little children, terrified of the world, of people not like them, of change."

smarty...surely you don't believe that in general, conservatives are afraid, frightened, terrified, or other like adverbs, do you? I think you must have been using hyperbole to make a point, because you are indeed a pretty smart fellow.

I can speak only for myself, of course.......I'm not afraid of anyone nuking the US unless we had a liberal administration asleep at the defense wheel, and they ignored the dangers that do exist..and the hatred radicals in the world have for America. The sad thing is there are American radicals who hate America. I guess I am afraid of them.

Gays convincing us that sodomy is enjoyable. eee-yuck! gross! sick! If you guys and gals want to do that, keep it to yourselves, and out of decent company.........and yes I think it is indecent..decidedly so.

Heck, I enjoy Spanish..I know enough to get around in Madrid or Mexico City..self-taught because I was interested. I think Spanish should be taught in our schools as a second language from early ages....and of course the Hispanic kids should be taught English. We have borrowed a lot of words from other languages..and Spanish has borrowed a lot of English words.

African-Americans voting 7 or 8 times in the election. I have no idea what you are speaking of...

Radical Islam...I admit I am scared of anyone who is radical..radical liberals scare me too..

Forced to become a vegan?...come on..who cares what people choose to eat. Only a liberal would think that people could be, or should be, forced to do something they don't want to do. That is a major problem conservatives have with libs..the libs think that they can use tax laws, or other laws to force the social behavior that THEY decide is beneficial to global warming, the snail darter, the spotted owl, etc., etc.

Christians in concentration camps..outlawing public property..you are using hyperbole. But, I'm sure the libs hated to see the Court ruling on guns because they know that if they had prevailed instead..it would be much easier to subdue any uprising against a corrupt government. As it now is, you "radicals" have to account for the fact that there is an armed militia spread across this country. Given that most of the military itself tends to be conservative, I think you libs need to consider just how far your agenda can be pushed, without dissidents pushing back.

Brig..I would settle for castration or tubal ligation..lol..just so they don't raise any more liberals like themselves. We don't have to worry much about the gays or les's reproducing..although they are adopting or inseminating. It's still a small number. And, you know, I don't really care what they do, if they would just keep it to themselves. I do object to their agenda of making that behavior mainstream..and the effect it can have on impressionable young people.

I am just amazed at the mind processes that liberals have in general..I wonder whether it is genetic or environmental (family conditions) that produces such skewed reasoning?

I hope the "storm" has passed. He probably is an OK guy (gal?), but his reasoning is far, far, out. His thoughts regarding America and capitalism are polar opposites to mine.

Regards.

Gleno..a reversal is a change of price that is at least two box sizes. If the trend is presently downward and red for MVV..then a reversal is the close of day with a white box filled. Look at the linked chart.

The box size..what you want to consider a reversal.. is all up to you.

be, Fox, anyone else intrested in Trend Trading. This is not for most trading here. I guesstimate that only 1 in 10 has the patience to follow it..and maybe only 1 in 100 who will stick with it and make money. If you "simply love" trading the 5 min or 15 min charts this is not for you. If you are impatient at the time it takes for a 3 minute egg, or for the toast to pop up..this is not for you. This is more like watching a road crew fix potholes.

There was some discussion of Renko charts today. Great! I have plotted the price reversals using P&F charts for years...I never knew about Renko charts. Charlie Dow was credited with developing the "filling the price box" concept that became P&F..but I now think he was a piker, and borrowed from the older Japanese Renko charts. Whatever. Renko charts are perfect for trend trading.

There were some Renko charts published today. In case you are not familiar with them, please look now at the linked chart on the 2X MID. There is a force chart below, but the meat is in the price chart. Spend a couple minutes with it...note that there is a box size choice. In general, smaller box sizes can improve returns, but increase whipsaws...contrarily, bigger box sizes do not necessarily reduce whipsaws, as you will see if you spend time playing with box sizes. See you back after you look at the linked chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p81962077944&a=137225579

The concept is simple. You decide what box size you want depending on your aversion to whipsaws. You decide at what price level you want to conclude a trend reversal has occurred.
You enter a buy or sell order for the long and the short etf at the appropriate level. You sit back and let the market put you in the new trend at the price you selected. That's it.

This is how I do it...you can probably adapt to something better.

1. I selected the 2X MID etfs, MVV and MZZ...obviously the inverse of one another.

2. I use a box size of 1.5 for the MVV and 1.1 for MZZ. You select the appropriate size for whatever you want to trend trade, and by simple algebraic ratios..set both to trigger a trend change at about the same time.

3. I use the daily chart. You can fool around with different times, and see what you decide.

4. After the market closes, I adjust the GTC orders I have placed with my broker..if they need changing..often they do not every day.

5. I use a 2 box reversal to indicate a trend change. You decide for yourself what reversal sign you want to use. The 2 box reversal means if MVV is in a downtrend, like now, and is filling new red boxes..a 2 box reversal will be when a white box appears..which means the price has reversed upward 2 boxes.

6. The GTC orders I referenced in #4, are set at the price to buy MVV at the price which would indicate a reversal. The present GTC order is set to buy at $73.50. I also have a GTC order to sell my present MZZ holdings at the price which will trigger a reversal signal. When this works seamlessly, you are selling one position as you are buying the inverse position.

7. One thing you will find if you set the box size too small, is that intraday you can get a false reversal signal. Let's say the trend is down like now..Monday there is a big spike up at the opening for an hour or more, which triggers the smaller boxes to show a reversal and triggers the GTC orders you have placed..but then about lunch, the market reverses down hard, and ends up continuing the downward trend. If you had placed a GTC order at the price of a small box size, you would be in the wrong vehicle, and whip-sawed.

That's it.....you can count the boxes for the last months on the MVV chart linked, and calculate the return. Don't forget to subtract the loss at a trend change...because you are in the "wrong or losing" vehicle for 2 boxes, in my example.

Also don't forget to multiply the box size times the number of boxes in order to calculate the entire price movement.

I use the force chart to guage the stength of the reversal....a sharp strength reversal generally has a ways to run..a weak one, maybe not. Also, after a long trend, you can sometimes see a weakening in the trend by looking at the force chart.

Adios.

Fish.......nope..I never smoked some in the 60's or any other decade. I get your meaning though, I think. Regards.

Understand you have run out of posts, and therefore I don't expect a reply.

As I see it: You want some government system other than capitalism. You are not sure what that system should be because we are not intelligent enough and do not know how everything is connected in life. (whatever that means) We need to "uncondition" our minds if we now think that America is a decent place..an imperfect place, but a decent place.. and get rid of our false values (whatever that means) before we can make anything better.

OK.. AND, while this process in the above paragraph goes on, I will love America as it is..flaws and all..and be grateful that I was born into, raised, and still live, in a capitalist society.

Where you see bad..I see good. Where you see oppression, I see opportunity. Where you see despair, I see hope.

I have said before, I simply cannot understand how very many liberals think. I assume you cannot understand my thought processes. If that be true..there is nothing more to be done.

We cannot communicate in a way that benefits either of us. Best wishes for you to have a good life.

"I think we should act intelligently." That is your answer as to what form of government you would prefer to capitalism??!!

What a hoot!

ok..platitudes works. btw..you rail against capitalism. I asked you a question you did not answer. Will you please answer it now?

What system of government would you prefer to capitalism?

plenitudes? plenitudes?........you display consistent ignorance and stupidity...there is no pill for stupidity (unfortunately, since there are many liberals who need a daily dose).

storm...I have never spoken so bluntly before to anyone on a web site..but then, I have never seen such stupidity on a web site.


In the words of Foot.......you just can't fix stupid. You, my friend, cannot be fixed. Adios.

Dan..yes, I have guns in my home. I pray I never have to use them in self-defense....on the other hand, I promised to care for and protect my wife. If she were subjected to unspeakable treatment, and death..while I could do nothing to stop it..I would be most unworthy of the trust she has placed in me.

Great link to the wonderful Freidman..thanks Foot.

gtcstorm..you're not depressed(?)..I didn't "lift a finger" to answer your points?...........OK.

"Yes, it is sad and this was inevitable in a capitalist greed based system" The capitalist system provides the greatest opportunity for freedom and advancement of state, of any system yet devised by man. There is one better system that will be employed some day..a theocracy under the direction of Jesus of Nazareth. Until then, what system of man do you propose to replace capitalism with??

"This "great nation" is just over 200 years old, that is nothing on a historical scale. It is a terrible model with perhaps a few bright spots." While I agree that 200 years is but a brief blink in the infinity of time, I disagree deeply that it is a terrible model with only a few bright spots. America is a nation of immigrants..all of whom, besides the ugly period of slavery, chose to come to this land. America is, has been, and with God's help, will continue to be the best hope of mankind. Compare the Communist rule in Eastern Europe, where fences had to be built to keep people in........in America, we have to build fences to keep them out.

"Most people are struggling while only a few are prospering." What?!..you need to travel abroad, my friend. What you call struggling would be considered lavish living by a large percentage of the people of the world who live under other systems. Only a few prospering?? The persons who live below the lower tax limit (in other words, do not have to pay taxes), would be considered upper class in most of the world. The only ones struggling are those who don't work..or get hooked on drugs..or never bothered to get an education that would help lift them in their working years.

Who ever decided that land and resources was owned by the privileged few? What are you talking about? More Americans own more land, resources, and "things" than any other people on earth. Probably few of those who post here were born into wealth..yet, most own land, houses, cars, companies, etc. How did this come about? Do you suppose they did that through education and/or hard work?? That's what I think.

"George Carlin just died. He left us with the truth of what is taking place." Wow..just Wow. If you are building your life on the "truths" as espoused by Carlin, I can understand your mental fatigue. There is a source of higher truth that you are missing...aim higher than Carlin, my friend...much higher..

gtcstorm.....my deepest apologies. You are right, I completly mis-read your comments. Best Wishes.

gtcstorm....sorry, but I don't know of an expressed opinion on a board with which I disagree more. Your feelings are obviously based on your experiences, and the reality you perceive. We are anonymous on the web, indeed....but personalities can be discerned, and empathy felt.

Please forgive me if I offend you in any way by the following commment..believe me, there is no offense intended.

You may be in a period of depression. That is not a fault or a flaw..just something that is a state of being. Please understand that those in depression may not realize it themselves, and in fact, be in denial.

If you have a trusted one, ask them if they think this may be the case.......and if so, please see your doctor and reveal your thoughts to him/her as you have to us. Best Wishes.

Hot Dang..I never thought in my craziest dream that I would ever agree on a principle of freedom with Leahy and Feingold..in the tradition of Fox News "fair and balanced"..I give them bows, kudos, and an approval rating that moved from zero to 5 or 6 on a scale of 100.

"Liberal Democratic Sens. Patrick Leahy and Russ Feingold both praised the court's ruling. So did more centrist Democrat Sen. Jon Tester of Montana. Tester stood alongside conservative Republican Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Orrin Hatch at a brief news conference outside the court that sits across from the Capitol.

"The Supreme Court has recognized the personal right to bear arms, guaranteed in the Second Amendment of the Constitution, and expressly held for the first time that our Bill of Rights includes this right among its guarantees of individual liberty and freedom. That is a good thing," said Leahy, the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman.

"I am very pleased the Supreme Court finally recognized that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to bear arms. This is an important decision for millions of law-abiding gun owners. Public safety must be ensured without depriving our citizens of their constitutional rights," Feingold, of Wisconsin, said."

WooHoo! Three cheers for the Supreme Court! They actually affirmed that the Constitution still means what the founders said it meant. But, why only a 5-4 decision? I mean, how much clearer can the wording in the Constitution be? Without the liberal slant of "interpeting" what the founders meant, how could the decision be anything but 9-0?? Speaking of the prophetic words of the Constitution hanging by a thread....

Supreme Court Strikes Down D.C. Gun Ban, Upholds Individual Right to Keep and Bear Arms

Hi Fox, be, et al; I have decided to take an hour or so this weekend and post a strategy of trend trading. I bet, with the fertile minds here, that many improvements can be made to my system..or the system adapted in various ways to better suit the individual. I will answer the question you posed in that post. Regards.

Two..not me long..lol..I'm a trend player, and the trend is down. Life is easier if you go with the trend..Regards.

How do the liberals always choose the wrong side of an issue?

Note the following quote from the story header: "Public surveillance video mushrooms despite lack of evidence it works"

Well, Hector..it may or may not "deter crime"..but it sure as heck has been ultra effective in finding and convicting the guilty. That's good enough for me...most criminals are too stupid, or high on something, to expect them to be "deterred".

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25355673/

Gleno...well, I suppose the X-rated man responded to my provacative post about the Exxon oil spill. He is the only person I have put on ignore in a long, long, time.....it was a well-earned dishonor, too..I might add. There are some liberals who post here who are likable, and one can have a civil discussion with..not old Bob.

Although I have mixed feelings about Exxon getting what amounts to a 2.5B windfall by virtue of the Supreme Court ruling in their favor on the excessively punitive fine for the Valdez spill.............mixed feeling, and yet, anything which causes angst to an environmental group..and perhaps sets back their agenda..is heartily welcomed.

"John Passacantando, executive director of the environmental group Greenpeace USA, said the ruling "makes a mockery of justice" "

Maybe there is hope for Souter yet..he seemed to make a logical decision. Obviously there is no hope for Stevens, Ginsburg, and Breyer.
What a disappointment Breyer is..

The next President will likely get to nominate at least two on the court...the good part is that both being replaced will be as liberal as anyone that could possibly replace them, so net-net..no harm, no foul.
I am speaking of an elderly Stevens, and a seriously ill Ginsburg, of course.

Sure, there is plenty of blame to be distributed among Presidents, members of Congress, other decision makers, etc...no question about that. It is fair to say that they all failed to greater or lesser degrees.

It is also fair to blame those who are labelled as tree-huggers or eco-nuts, or other names.

1. The extreme over reaction of the above community toward nuclear energy power plants bent the course of history in a large way toward where we find ourselves today.

2. The environmental groups bear a large, one might say huge, responsibility for fighting, hindering, delaying, and stopping the development of American reserves in off-shore sites, shale, and the artic. There is no question that in that 30 year period referenced, sufficient reserves could have been brought into production that we would not need to have this conversation.

3. There IS the nimby attitude everywhere. The sea breezes near Nantucket are ideal for a wind farm. Which most influential Senators have killed any such development there...surely not wildly liberal, Bush-bashing, ones named Kennedy and Kerry???? No one wants nuclear plants near them..even though some other countries safely use them to supply most of their power.

There is plenty of blame to go around..including a complacent electorate that did not insist that leaders plan for a future situation such as we now have........and especially curses on those who fought, delayed, and denied, viable solutions in the name of environmentalism.

Hey be..my phrasing could have been better, I guess. Early in the trading day today, my trend indicator signaled a change to a positive trend for today. I had already placed a buy order with my broker to purchase MVV if that price were reached...so that buy was executed.

In trend trading..there is always the risk/reward decision of how tight to set the parameters that will indicate an opportunity for profit....if the indicator is too loose, a good part of the next move is lost..if the indicator is too tight, there is the risk that the trend change may fail, and a whipsaw result.

After the indication of a change to a positive trend today..the price wandered, and finished very near the price of Fridays close. Since a change to a positive trend has been triggered, and not negated by a change back to a negative trend, I will stay with the long position overnight..expecting that the projected positive trend will materialize tomorrow. I think Gleno calls that his hope indicator. Regards.

Well, I shouldn't have posted a system on a board where Gleno could read it........I should have known if he read it, it would stop working.

I still think, despite the G curse that it will continue to work, though...trends and I go back a ways. Since the MID trend changed to positive today, I bought in and remain long until the trend changes to negative.

It's all in fun, Gleno.

fanshaw...great post. Thoughtful post. Man..there are some people who get it. How do we change or marginalize the nutso's on the left who are against anything logical? I fear they are actually gaining influence, even though their ideas are so cockamanie..too many followers don't understand what a logical train of thought is..or how to consider unintended consequences.

jake..yes..I did mention the trend changing on the MID, and then an edit that it had changed. Your point is well taken..I have mentioned before that I am trading the MID..I'll try to remember to mention that if I speak of a trend changing.

I give a nod to Steve Norris for pointing out how the MID is a little better behaved than some other indexes...I used to use the SPX but the wildness of the financials there made me change to the MID (still some financials, but not so heavy).

re:Patton.....gosh, how I wish Patton were a younger man today, and by some means, be elected President, along with a like-minded Congress....what a dream!

That SOB would scare the poop out of the liberals, straighten up the gays, clean up the internal anti-Americanism, and blast the terrorists of the world into the next so they could fornicate with their virgins.

Man..it's only a dream..but a sweet one.

be..lol..my trend is daily. My studies have shown that most of the time..say 80% or more like 90% of the time..the move in the morning is the direction the market goes for the day. True, there are the reverse percentages where it heads one way, reverses, and ends up going the other way. That is the exception. There are also the doji's where it fiddles both ways and ends up where it started. That also is part of that smaller percentage.

What I generally do is: after the market close, I look around at breadth indicators that are ancillary to my trend indicators......If I am in a long position, and holding overnight..I will place a stop-limit sell on that position at the price level that I determine is a trend reversal. At the same time, I place a stop-limit buy order on the inverse fund at the trend reversal price. If all works seamlessly, at a given price on a trend change I am out of one etf and into the inverse at about the same time. It's slick when it works, which has been pretty good for me.

I should also say, that I don't like to play all my cards on one system..so I also follow the MVP signal system on collective2.com with part of my money. Regards.

"Just as you guys get a buy..the sucker turns back down..I think we are getting Faked here.."

That's the real fake, Glen..scare the folks out of buying here. Just kidding..my trend flipped, but it could be a whipsaw..or, it could be my way of scalping a 2-5% profit.

Yes, as Gleno says, there could be some fake moves..or it could be real. My short-term trend parameters have come within pennies of reversing upward on the MID..which would trigger an order buy for me. I know there are always..always..a bunch of reasons the market "should" go down..and often goes up in spite of all the worry.

Edit: while I was typing..the buy triggered, so by my calculations we should be in an uptrend for a day or more.