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Yes, I nailed it 500 million shares of TSNP, holy crap!
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/10/2143178/0/en/Forwardly-Inc-Acquires-Warrants-to-Purchase-500-Million-Shares-of-Tesoro-Enterprises-Inc.html
This was likely locked in with the 11/23 announcement, when Share price of Tesoro/Humbl was .02.
At that time, Humbl market cap was $100 mil. Imagine if FORW becomes listed as a major shareholder at some point. Could become worth billions on the value of this holding alone.
It fits perfectly, and it makes some sense of George’s vague tweets about Humbl and Forwardly.
Ok, Occam rules.
1. What is FORW? A holding company (HC)
2. What do HC do? They buy financial instruments of other companies as assets in anticipation of growth in value.
3. What did Humbl announce on 11/23 when their stock was at 2 cents? Sale of warrants to raise up to $50 million for expansion.
4. Who likely bought several hundred million of those warrants at a fraction of the current market value of TSNP stock? See #1
5. Who is announcing the latest addition to their HC this week?
So, what would happen to FORW share price if it had potential to own, say, 5% or more of TSNP/HUMBL shares? You answer that one.
This, right here. This is not a fly by night, this is first class.
https://player.vimeo.com/video/488784966
Good luck! Sharp has been very forthcoming, and productive.
Dum da dum dum, dum da dum dum dum.....
About George Sharp, President of Forwardlym
George is a well-known activist for integrity in the microcap market, having appeared on television and quoted in the print media. His work has been integral in the indictment--and in some instances, the imprisonment--of several bad actors intent on stealing from "widows and orphans". Sharp has also provided damning evidence to the United States Securities Commission (SEC) and Financial Industry Regulatory Association (FINRA) about public companies which were solely designed to defraud the public at large, many of which were subsequently suspended from trading. Much of the information he has provided to the authorities and regulators has been gleaned from discovery obtained by George during the civil numerous cases he has litigated against these fraud artists.
Strik
This stock, along with TSNP are going to be money makers. FORW President @GeorgeASharp on Twitter hints at major news to come very soon. This guy has managed the Tesoro/HUMBL merger and a stock rise of 4000% + percent — in November! A guy I know who invest $8000 is a millionaire
FORW is a holding company, likely adding another company to their portfolio very soon, I’m guessing it blows through the 20s quickly. Sharp will get it done here too.
I called TSNP move to billion dollars market cap and move from 4 cents to 20 cents plus last Thursday. I think Forwardly has a similar move coming.
Strik, look FORWardly to what POET will have in the next 6 months. More importantly, click on my name to view my most recent posts.
This is huge news for POET that not surprisingly no one gets. But doing multi product masks suggests they are going to be moving on multiple products at once, starting in mid 2021.
Check my 11/26 post when this was at .04. I stand by that. When is always the most difficult part of forecast. But the billion market cap now becomes a ceiling until stage 2 is achieved, when it becomes a floor.
25 cents before the 12/9 call.
This stock is not about chasing the penny moves or guessing where it stops. It’s all about valuation.
Stage 1 is perceived potential, and as long as the news releases are substantive, that first stage valuation target is $1 billion. We are tracking toward that already. That’s roughly 20 cents per share.
Stage 2 is validation and first big deal. In other words, it’s really, really real. $1 per share, $5 billion market cap.
Stage 3 FOMO, frenzy, or buyout. Everyone in this finspace wants in or looks to buy it for themselves. This is the wild card where valuation could get crazy, I mean, 11-12 digit crazy.
I think lots of folks now are playing it smart, taking some off the table, letting house money ride. Because there is another Stage 2 possibility, and that is lack of traction, failure to thrive and grow, in which case that $1 billion market cap could shrink back to $25 million, or less. That’s why house money is always the best choice, because you won’t need to be greedy to be wealthy if this gets to Stage 3.
Worth a watch
Probably no more news this week. No problem.
As long as they are able to keep the news flowing that further establishes the legitimacy of the technology and add to the list of international relationships, this stock will grow, with the requisite consolidation.
It gets interesting when it starts to chase market cap milestones, such as $1 billion. That’s about 22 cents a share. My guess is in the next 3 months, if news continues to validate it.
I do think about how much impact the Sanan deal will impact our bottom line going forward. 53/47 means our share of profits is also diluted by more than half. While I can’t envision Suresh giving up the farm, it suggests to me that they anticipate the relationship accelerates market penetration in China tremendously, and that volume will be the name of the game.
But, does this deal cause POET to concede similar terms to future JVs? I would say maybe, but that also places these majority partners in charge of driving demand. In some ways it’s a more clever and lucrative way of licensing the technology.
And it could be argued that it is the floor through which POET’ will not fall in other negotiations, so, for applications that may apply to massive markets, the price a partner pays to play could become “to the highest bidder” that can meet the expectations POET has for penetration, volume etc.
We could be sitting pretty as this evolves.
Don’t think those 52s will fall below the strike price when that expiration comes a year from now. If it does, something has really gone off the rails. They will get exercised.
Don’t blame you one bit for your skepticism Strik, this company has given great cause over the years. This NR seems to add some efficiency to the Optical Engine along with ironing out some process issues, not problems, but the kind that expand the capabilities.
Still, no money, no real movement. But in regard to your orders, these improvements may be what was needed to meet specs and finalize some orders. So maybe we will begin to see those start to emerge. I’d like to see the end of the 75 cent warrants and if that opens the door for upward movement.
Otherwise, just waiting but no longer an “if”, just when.
Way too early for a buyout. I’ve given up expecting the share price to rise fast, barring a huge deal with a known leader, or specific numbers on orders/revenues, but I haven’t given up on the stock. I’m not worried about failure, just resigned to the fact that the wait seems like it is never over.
I do think we get more info this week. I don’t see those 75 cent warrants coming into the money. The anticipated fall of the US markets scares me, might drag us down with it.
But with our biggest known customers coming overseas, so far,we are insulated, and ironically, we don’t have any revenues to lose yet.
$13.5 billion market cap. $100 billion plus yuan. I made the same miscalc.
Still this is huge. Really huge. It is validation at a commercial production level, Sanan is a very high volume manufacturer putting $50 million into this. The company will be known as Super Photonics and will dominate 400g in China and likely to displace 100/200g legacy transceiver business after that inventory gets wiped out.
POET holds rights to 400g outside of China, and all other applications as of now.
When this breaks the $4.60 level for good, it is off to the races. 5 million shares, $23 million market cap? On a speculative level alone, this should get a 9 digit market cap. It has the potential to be a billion dollar company if the technology is adopted by sellers seeking to combat counterfeit products that damage their brands and their business.
So much to like about this one. Recent Nasdaq listing, timely technology, tired market starved for new opportunities. Should get interesting very quickly.
Exactly the float is so low that it could shoot up quickly. The patented technology looks legit, given our ongoing animus with China over trade, and their penchant for counterfeiting, this could be one of those right places right time scenarios.
Looks like positioning for a run is starting earlier than I thought. Nice.
Moved to the Nasdaq recently. Extremely low float. Patent granted for dual authentication, verification, track and trace to eliminate counterfeiting.
So when a stock with profound scarcity of trading shares becomes known, what happens?
The idea of a reverse split scares most micro cap investors, in many cases correctly. Often struggling companies do a RS to create the perception of greater value to new investors. A company looks much more attractive over a dollar than under a quarter. Ultimately the valuation comes down the goods/services produced.
If POET were to announce they want to include a RS in their quiver for future consideration, I would not view it negatively. Timed properly, it can really accelerate value by introducing an x times pool of investors.
But it has to be done as follows.
1. Announce significant news. Big client, partnership, influx of orders, etc. something tied to ramping revenue. Know that additional major announcements will be coming to support/sustain momentum
2. Allow news to permeate investment community
3. Do the RS while simultaneously announcing intent to move to a larger, more reputable market (NASDAQ, TSX)
4. Create a share price that allows funds to invest and begin the dog and pony shows to attract them
It is critical that a stream of news follows the announcement.
I have no doubt POET will use this approach, otherwise, they would have done it much earlier. They have enjoyed anonymity, to our detriment perhaps, but are now spreading the word. Suresh is no fool, if he’s promoting, it is because he knows thoroughly what they have and the potential. I do not expect them to misplay this.
I don’t think you will see a move to uplist, or an RS, until they have a big name deal revealed or orders/revenues that can be tied to ongoing fundamentals. They will get off the Venture exchange but it will be with a compelling story and momentum.
Agreed on their future, the technology is validated and I would guess prototypes are in the hands of a half dozen or more companies, with Sanan and the as yet to be named North American Tier 1 at the forefront.
Risk has been substantially reduced with cash in hand, JV to come and technology proven at the very least within the transceiver market. If it proves viable for co-packaged optics in IC, it will become a story stock, but that is likely 18-24 months away at a minimum, and that would trigger a buyout.
From the news release:
“Combining the advanced wafer foundry manufacturing platform capabilities of Sanan IC with the true wafer-scale and hybrid integration approach of the POET Optical Interposer platform, we will be able to offer transceiver manufacturers the ability to span several generations of devices and unlimited scale for high-volume applications at a highly economical price,” believes POET’s chairman & CEO Dr Suresh Venkatesan.
————
This is the part that we are waiting for the market to comprehend.
Google “wafer scale photonics”. You will get scholarly articles, research papers, oh, and Rockley Photonics who has received hundreds of millions of dollars— and no JVs, no products to date. Not a single reference to current manufacturing at this level.
The market has failed to grasp the enormity of this, it is a step change advance in bringing integrated photonics production into a silicon (CMOS) process. This joint venture with Sanan fronting all of the money (well, 99.73% of it) validates this process.
It will be a wake up call to other silicon foundries who will want to incorporate this business; component/device builders will see the huge economic impact it has in reducing component, packaging, testing and assembly costs, and most importantly, massive scale (millions of devices can be manufactured quickly); end users will be clamoring to integrate this into their product designs for its lower cost, efficiency, form factor, reliability - and they can rely on this process to enable their products to evolve to higher speeds and capacities for years to come, reducing/eliminating the high cost of re-engineering adaptation and accelerate product evolution.
It may take time, but this is legit, it is game changing and the market will catch on.
Hey strik, yeah, I wonder how long it will take the markets to react if at all. Nice run today, but given that it validates the technology and addresses the Chinese market (huge) I’m surprised we didn’t see a bigger confirmation. Canadian markets are closed tomorrow.
My bad Sanan has a $14 billion USD market cap.
I expect overseas investment in POET to heat up on this. Sanan is huge, $110 billion, and when they do something like this their investors will be all over it.
POETF huge news, JV with $110 billion Chinese company, announced at 7 AM here, 7 PM China. Expect overseas buys to explode. Disruptive technology, not hype.
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2020-06-30/poet-and-sanan-ic-sign-loi-to-form-50-million-joint-venture
Hey strik, think of all the time you have had to accumulate more cheap shares. ??
You are on target for why, you can only say “here comes the parade” for so long before the crowd disburses. But I think 2020 will be a completely different year for us.
Here’s a thought; Anyone want to guess what the 8th deliverable was? I’ll take a flyer on this, “assembly and testing of integrated optical engines at wafer-scale”.
Think about it, it’s not like you want to say, “ok, we did one. Now let’s scale up.”
From a client’s perspective, that last deliverable has to be proof that you are able to replicate the OI at wafer scale, hundreds per wafer, at a quality level satisfactory to the customer. Now, it also means these OI have been produced in volume to the client specifications, which in my mind means that hundreds, more likely thousands, of client- ready Optical Interposers have been handed over for insertion and testing in client (400g) product prototypes.
Same thought process then for the Tier 1 client; prove to their end users/customers that they can produce the transceivers at quantity, quality, specifications and that they function satisfactorily and will be deliverable at an agreed upon price. No doubt there are scores, if not hundreds, of test conditions these transceivers are put through (power surge/failure, atmospheric, vibration, etc) for failure analysis. So I will assume thousands are undergoing testing as I write this, and that the Tier 1 and POET and prospective customers are closely watching these tests for performance and failure, and to immediately analyze any failed devices for cause under whatever parameters that device was being (stress?) tested.
This is how products become available in the second half of 2020.
So, we are well underway, and word will begin to spread. This week should have many like it to come.
Enjoy the weekend, a full 5 day business week ahead, and then we March.
Roth, I kept the reply generic for US and Canadian readers.
I’m thinking of moving more from a taxable to a non taxable retirement fund, pay the tax at share price when it transfers in 2020;and no more taxes after that on any gains ever. Given our national debt, would rather pay now before the law changes.
You are right about that I think strik. Sent you a private message too.
He’s around but took a back seat when the GaAs failed. Very involved in other projects regarding nuclear power.
Strik/proto FYI if you guys do twitter find me @mcnitwit.
Great to know I will set a reminder.
Just hoping wanted to connect with you and strik off board, don’t have PMs. Want to invite you guys to a group.
I still can’t believe we are not already at 50 cents a share.