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Thanks for the info. I'll keep her in mind. One of those guys may need a little more makeup than the other. LOL!
I'm producing and directing the documentary video about Baltia entitled "Birth of An Airline" of which the takeoff shots at Victorville are among the first parts of the production. The finished video will have different versions of different lengths for different promotional venues, from a couple of minutes up to nearly an hour.
Right now there is very little to shoot, but doing a lot of planning now for what will be happening very fast after the manuals get approved. When that happens, you won't see me lurking around here very much. I'll be too busy!
"net book value of about 3 million dollars"
I'm not an accountant, but my understanding is that once an airline gets FAA certification, that certificate has a value that can be carried on the books as an asset. I suppose its value would be either what it cost to get it or its market value - in either case, several million dollars, which would be added to the $3 mill asset value of the plane.
What do you think?
When I went out on a limb with "By peak travel time this summer, Baltia should be well past the one RT per week schedule." - I meant when they reach 3 RT's per week (not 5 per week), which would meet the needs of business travelers who may need a short turn around.
Let's hope the FAA doesn't cut off my limb with a lot more delays. But, I don't think they will. Nobody is telling me what the FAA is telling Baltia, but I just keep seeing a lot of subtle signs that something big is coming soon. I see a lot more smiles around their offices when I visit there, which says something, unless they're all drinking happy juice. Other signs too. But I think Baltia management is very reluctant to make any predictive announcements, because they've gotten burned before when they've tried to predict just when the FAA was going to do something. I think they are now very wisely of a mind to just wait until the manuals approval is actually in hand before they say anything.
All of my warrants have expired, so I suppose that is the case for a lot of others too. I have no idea what the remaining overhead of share requirements is to meet potential warrants, or whether there is a reserve for them. But my expired warrants were to purchase at 25 cents per share, so the money warrants would bring in to the company, it would seem, would minimize dilution and so increasing the shares total to fulfill activated warrants wouldn't seem to be a negative. Does this make sense?
"Well past one route is probably what 2 months?" - I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you referring to the addition of the Moscow route later? If so, I'm not even considering that. So I see the time to 3 RT's per week as about 5 months after manuals approval, according to Baltia's startup schedule posted here earlier. Am I missing something?
One RT per week is only for the first 2 months, on Baltia's 1-3-5 per/wk ramp-up plan. Since break-even is at about a 50% load factor (according to Baltia's pro forma cash flow projections), tourism can probably account for more than that load during the first two months.
And so how strong is tourism to St. Pete? If you want to see the tourism draw of St. Pete, go to Google Images and search on "St. Petersburg, Russia" and take a look at the fabulous sights. Few destinations can match it.
By peak travel time this summer, Baltia should be well past the one RT per week schedule.
In any case, the gradual ramp up from one to five RT flights per week is the smart way to launch to make sure the launch is relatively smooth. There will inevitably be some glitches at first, and Baltia will likely want to keep them very manageable during startup to avoid offending a lot of passengers right at the outset. As logistics settle into a familiar and comfortable routine, then the frequency ramps up. Makes good sense.
More recent pro formas seem to show a similar pattern to the 2007 pro forma. I have a pro forma (projection) for 2009 (3 yrs. old instead of 5) that was handed out to investors some time ago. It shows a similar pattern of results for the first year with 1/3/5 roundtrips/wk:
Total operating revenue year one: $99,401,435
Total Operating Expense: $84,527,226
Operating Profit/Loss Before I&T: $14,874,209
The main differences between this 2009 pro forma and the 2007 pro forma were: an increase in fuel prices; starting at a different time of year; and higher prevailing airfares in line with the general airfare increases at the time. It shows an average profit per one-way flight ranging between $12,614 (off peak season, load factor 55%) to $121,704 (during peak season, load factor 94%).
This compares to the earlier 2007 pro forma with an average profit per one-way flight ranging between $15,019 (58% load factor) and $93,178 (81% load factor).
Generally, the pattern is the same for the financial performance on the two pro formas, just adjusted upward in 2009 for higher fuel prices and correspondingly higher air fares. I expect that a current update of the pro forma would show the same pattern because the operational factors are essentially the same.
This is why I keep buying more shares when opportunity knocks, as it has been lately. Started accumulating shares 20 years ago, so I've got a nice pile, but it can always be improved.
Their proposed initial flight schedule in their DOT application is 1 round trip per week for the first couple of months. This is designed to get all the kinks out and build traffic and then fairly quickly ramp up to 3 rt's per week.
You can download a pdf with key excerpts from Baltia's DOT application from:
http://www.leadersoft.com/baltia/DOTapplicationExcerpts.pdf
This pdf includes both cash flow projections for the first year of operations and also the projected flight schedule on the last of 14 pages.
Management has already thoroughly investigated the history of reverse splits, and found that in the overwhelming majority of cases, it was a disaster. Thus they have firmly decided not to do it. In the minutes of the stockholders meeting (seen via stickie above), Igor clearly explains the perils of going the R.V. route, which he said he will not do.
136 million shares would raise $4,760,000 at .035. Should be more than enough to get us up and running and making money, given where we are today.
The website is about to be completely redesigned by a new website design team that was recently hired. Apparently, during the search for the new web designers, no updates were made to the site, so some old expectations are still mentioned on a couple of secondary pages. It will probably take a few weeks before the new design team's work will be online.
In case you missed this article about Baltia in Airline Reporter on Dec. 7th...
http://www.airlinereporter.com/tag/n706bl/
I think my enthusiasm for what's in the works may have gone a bit too far when I described the upcoming PR and advertising as "huge". "Big" is more accurate. Perhaps a quibble with my own choice of words. In any case, it will be highly targeted, very creative and should be highly effective. From what I've seen in the works, you'll be proud of it. A real class act, but with a lot of excitement built in.
Apology accepted.
No CGI was used at all. That entire video was shot from a helicopter. The same photographer/videographer, Sam Lafoca, shot many of the stills that can be accessed via one of the "stickies" above, which were shot the same day just prior to takeoff. Some of those stills show the clouds building up in the northwestern sky that helped make the takeoff so spectacular. Later that afternoon, the thunderstorm in those clouds dropped large hail on Victorville that might have damaged our expensive paint job - so we got off just in time! The plane's climbout was a little steeper than normal because it was empty, so that might have made the footage look a little unreal to you.
This film clip is part of a documentary "Birth of an Airline" now in production that will be completed soon after the launch, and which will be part of a huge PR and advertising campaign after FAA certification. (No advertising allowed by DOT until after certification.) And yes, more aerial photography is planned with the plane with a spectacular familiar background. (But it's extremely difficult to pull off because of the complex variables and clearances involved, and might have to be scrapped.) The aerial photography team has already flown a test flight for that, so some of the variables are already under control.
The takeoff from Victorville, CA was real. I've got all the raw unedited footage to prove it.
EXACTLY what makes you think it was fake?
They will start with multiple crews.
Loading up some more at .043
"hang in there...good things are on the horizon..."
Absolutely!
According to the FAA a few weeks ago, "No news is good news" - which would mean that they haven't found anything wrong with the manuals and they're just finishing up their internal voluminous paperwork for approval.
Apparently, there has been no news. That's good.
No bad news at all. People just have the post holidays blues and are getting antsy. Nothing to worry about. Everything is actually on track.
People should stop worrying about "When does the 45 days end?" (The 45 days of FAA review time after final submission of manuals.)
As Igor says, "It is what it is." Meanwhile he and his people just doggedly and competently work with the FAA, as needed, through the last few complexities that will soon get us to that golden day.
How soon is "soon"? Just as soon as those guys at the FAA, whose necks are on the line when they approve Baltia, are completely satisfied that there isn't something lurking in some detail that could expose them, their careers and Baltia to a dangerous vulnerability.
I remember years ago driving a youngster from Los Angeles to Big Pine, Calif (about 300 miles). As we drove through the Hollywood Hills he asked, "Are we almost there?" Every five minutes he'd ask me the same question again. His repetitive asking didn't get us there even one minute sooner, but we did indeed get there - just when we should have.
Note: Henry Ford had never run an automobile company before he founded Ford Motors.
Thomas Edison had never run an electric company before he founded GE.
Bill Gates had never run a software company before he founded Microsoft.
Juan Trippe had never run an airline before he founded PanAm. (Unfortunately, other guys screwed it up long after he left.)
So the visionary founder of Baltia stands in good company.
I attended a meeting late last year at the FAA offices on Long Island when the FAA certification team met with Baltia executives for a safety systems seminar. It was obvious to me that the FAA people had a high regard for the Baltia people, and there was no tension between them. So the scenario where the FAA just gives up and says "go home" is not credible to me.
"they must be running out of excuses"
It has absolutely nothing to do with excuses and everything to do with the FAA's laser sharp focus on safety.
Put yourself in the shoes of the FAA manager in charge of reviewing the Baltia application for certification...
Fact 1: Baltia wants you to give them a license to fly a 32 year old airplane with 400 people at over 30,000 feet over the Atlantic with just enough financial resources - if everything goes as planned - to be able to just pull it off.
Fact 2: Baltia is run by somebody who, though a brilliant visionary, has never actually run a working airline before but he's backed up by several highly experienced and capable airline professionals.
Fact 3: During 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2010, there were zero U.S. airline fatalities. (Maybe 2011 also.)
At what point are you (the FAA manager) willing to bet your career that this new airline, given the facts above, is going to ensure that 2012 will also be a zero fatality airline year? If you screw up in certifying them before they can be proven without a doubt to be absolutely ready, and they then kill hundreds of people in an accident - so that the loss of a zero fatality year is on YOUR head - what happens to your 30 year career with the FAA?
Do you see now why the FAA people are being so careful and taking their time on this? Thanks to the due diligence of these FAA people, U.S. airlines are the safest airlines in the world. They intend to keep it that way - and so does Baltia!
Believe me, the wait will be worth it in terms of piece of mind that when N706BL takes to the air on its first revenue flight, that it will be as safe as humanly and technologically possible. In the long run, that is the best basis for a successful investment.
Lieutenant: I Started in 1992 with 1600 shares. Now I'm in 7 figures.
One reason someone might sell is that he/she just inherited a million or so shares, and for estate settling reasons, needs to sell the stock pretty quickly. With the low daily volume, such a seller who is gradually feeding out shares to sell every day, could hold the price down for a while.
The point is, there are always many different stockholder situations that could make someone sell now regardless of future prospects for the stock. They tend to hold the price down. When volume picks up heavily on a price uptrend, these people will be flushed out quickly. Then the p/s should better reflect value.
Food for thought.
I think we're in mostly in Phase 2 (based on completed steps) waiting to break through the gate into Phase 3, and that's when events really start to move fast, because then the steps to the finish line are really mostly within Baltia's control. According to Igor at the stockholders' meeting, he expects it will take about 60 days after manuals approval to reach first revenue flight.
Now the interesting thing in Phase 3 is this item: "5. Ditching demonstration" I hope they do that in a simulator! Hate to ruin our new paint job.
"So, is the above described seating arrangement present in the plane sitting in Michigan ready to fly?"
Take a close look at the interior photos of N706BL (accessed via one of the "stickies" above). The photos of this plane's interior appear to show a two-class arrangement, with 16 first-class seats in the nose and 12 first-class seats on the upper deck.
I'm a little foggy on this, but it seems someone posted long ago that the top deck seats won't be used initially. I could be wrong on that, tho. Also, it was posted earlier that the space between rows in coach class has been increased by 6 inches per row - a great mod for passenger comfort!
This plane cannot be changed to the preferred 3-class configuration until some time after certification, due to the complications (and time) doing such a change before cert. would involve under FAA rules. Take a look at the minutes of the stockholders meeting (sticky above), where I think this is explained by Igor. Later, as I recall from the meeting, the plan is to change the interior config on this bird after another plane comes on line and this one can then be pulled from the flight line temporarily for interior mods. After airline cert., it will be much easier (regulations wise) to make this kind of change.
A unique aspect to the way customer service is being designed, is that Igor has often said that superior service will be designed initially for the coach section, and then Business and First Class service will be built up from there. Just the opposite of other airlines where they design the First Class service first, and then see what they can eliminate to step it down for coach. So on Baltia, coach class is likely to be several cuts above anything else out there. And since that's were most of the market is, that's important.
"My guess is that cert. will come around the 16th or 17th"
Not possible. Perhaps approval of manuals, but not cert.
Cert. cannot occur until:
1. Approval of manuals
2. Hiring and training of initial flight crews
3. Emergency evacuation tests with the aircraft and crews.
4. Proving flights - at least 4 round trips - between JFK and LED.
5. "Tabletop Exercise" - FAA simulation of emergency scenarios with operational staff. Plus, a few other details.
We're probably looking at spring '12 to see cert. Then 30 days later (DOT rules), first revenue flight can occur.
'Why the Chicken Crossed the Ocean'
To find her ROOSTER!
For good luck - and more!
Happy New Year everyone!
The name of N706BL is "Spirit of Kathleen," painted near the nose of the plane, named for an attorney who helped Baltia some years ago. Unfortunately, Kathleen died of cancer after a courageous battle against it. Igor felt she should be honored by naming the first plane in Baltia colors after her.
Yes, roosters can fly if their wings aren't clipped. On the Hawaiian island of Kauai, there are a lot of roosters and chickens flying around wild because some years ago a few got loose from a farm where their wings didn't get clipped soon enough. I've seen them myself. Quite a surprising sight!
Absolutely! And more than just one destination before long.
Lieutenant, sorry I missed the chance to meet you last night at the party. I couldn't go due to having to host an event elsewhere at the same time.
Below are links to a couple of photos I took of the Baltia office exterior and interior on Nov. 10th...
http://www.leadersoft.com/photos/BaltiaHQ.jpg
http://www.leadersoft.com/photos/BaltiaOffice1.jpg
That's Russ Thal working in his office to the left. Most people hadn't moved in yet to the new office when this photo was taken. At that time they were still working over at the old Terminal 4 operations office while this office was still being outfitted.
Notice that plenty of space is being reserved for celebrations and dancing when we launch! lol
Emit: Can you post the link to the photos?
I don't know about any expectations of "comments" versus "approval." But I do believe that approval will be forthcoming sooner rather than later, and I include January in "sooner."
The key to the timing of the first revenue flight is the date of FAA approval of the manuals. According to an earlier schedule of events posted here, the first revenue flight occurs about 60 days after manuals approval. Igor confirmed this timeline at the stockholders meeting. This timeline assumes that Baltia has all of the necessary funding in place to rapidly execute the steps required after manuals approval through to FAA certification.
Thus, if FAA manuals approval occurs around the end of this month, then according to the timeline in the schedule posted earlier of the actions needed to achieve certification after manuals approval, the first revenue flight would be around the end of February.
Obviously, if FAA manuals approval comes later, then add 60 days to that approval date to get to the first revenue flight. So if approval comes in mid January, we would be looking at a first scheduled flight in mid March, if the timeline after manuals approval is correct (I think it is).
Some have commented about the need for powerful PR and advertising at launch to strongly support the Baltia "takeoff." There is an old saying that before you can jump, you first have to bend your knees. Let me assure you, Baltia's knees are now bent and ready to jump. And when that happens, it will make you proud.
I've rechecked, and your latest info is correct. So now we are all on the same page.
"10/18/11 Manuals were submitted and accepted for review."
Not all manuals, according to high authority. Some are still outstanding, for the reasons I stated earlier.
But not to worry. The FAA has been aware of Baltia's content in these easier manuals for some time, so that once the technical staffing requirements are met so they can be resubmitted, they should move through the system on a shorter clock than the much harder maint. manuals and shouldn't significantly hold things up.
Once the manuals are approved, things should move forward very fast through hiring, training and proving flights to launch.
Apparently there are multiple clocks ticking. Fortunately, the longer clock is on the extremely detailed maintenance sections that were submitted about 30 days ago. The holdup on the easier sections, with presumably shorter review clocks, has been that they require the filling of two key aviation management positions before those sections can be submitted (with the management names included). That appears to be forthcoming in a few days, and then the apparently shorter FAA review clock starts ticking on that part.
".. we are 30 days in on FAA submission"
See my earlier posts on this subject. They still stand.