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RWCRF - what's your angle here? I've owned before on the Canadian ticker and not seeing the appeal yet with weak financials and insiders selling. I'm also skeptical of management. Good sector and balance sheet though.
TSRI - surprised it's up so much, bailed out of 1/2 around 10.
I'm assuming it's b/c low float stuff is showing strength?
MPTI - thanks for heads up, started a position over the last few days. Still a bit cautious since it's such a recent spinoff of LGL
FSI - any thoughts on that S3 that was filed a couple weeks ago?
The number of shares outstanding hasn't grown at too egregious a rate over the last ~5 years, so maybe not a big deal.
TAIT/TRT - added today, SCKT, etc. bubbling up and thinking others may join soon. Besides, these have decent fundamentals compared to crap like MRIN.
ULBI - started a small position here at 3.89. Last several quarters have been crap from a profitability perspective and now the CEO got tossed. However, insiders are buying, $100 million backlog, and the sectors they serve are strong. Willing to take a shot here and like it even more as it approaches $3.
UFI - anyone ever owned this? I owned it during COVID rally, etc. and sold a long time ago. I'm a bit surprised to see it down this low, but selloff is likely linked to current retail environment for clothing. Really heavy insider buying. Contemplating getting back in because it might be a solid bounce play once the tax loss selling lets up. The fundamentals are going to take a little longer to turn around I think though.
PLPC - I still own a large chunk. If I wanted more of it, I'd probably be buying now. Still getting used to how it trades. I may have to add more at 75 or so if it gets there, but I expect it to bounce here.
RTMAF - been a roller coaster this year. It was quite a time riding this thing up and down and trading it when it went down to 0.75 CAD earlier this year. I agree, would be nice if they just paid everyone for their trouble
BSQR - finally entered at 1.08 today, will be interesting to see if they can turn any profit at all in the new year.
GENC - wasn't too enamored with the quarter, so I sold half. Backlog was meh. Also, not sure who is managing their cash/marketable securities, but a $20 million decrease YoY is pretty bad.
RTMAF/RTMNF - I was happy with the quarter, especially considering other recent earnings reports elsewhere in the retail sector in Canada (e.g. ROOT.TO). Agree it should trade higher.
PCTI - bought a bit, more bids below.
Also added ESP, AEY, and NHTC this week. NHTC is just a spec play on China crap
BSQR - been sitting on the bid for weeks, but no fills. I'll probably raise my bid. Agree that if they can get to breakeven it'll be promising. I like it as a tax loss selling candidate too.
BSQR - anyone tempted with the huge cash position? Bad quarter this morning. I was eyeing it recently and happy I waited. Not sure if it's time to start buying this type of stuff though.
Similar crap like GVP is in this category too.
GENC - missed the dip yesterday, but added some today. I get the drawback of the insider ownership, but it's getting a bit silly at these prices with all the cash/investments on the balance sheet.
So I should've put you under the "young men attrition" category? :P
Seriously though, congrats on retiring early!
Just my opinion on the primary reasons (in no specific order):
-retirement of baby boomers/old generations/aging workforce (e.g. gilead)
-mothers/fathers staying home for childcare (carryover from pandemic; now primary issue is not pandemic concerns but rather high cost of childcare)
-large mismatch between skillsets available and labor that is in demand
-long covid/other disabilities
-attrition of young men from the workforce (granted, a small number but I know a few who simply don't work or work very sporadically)
I don't think stimulus, unemployment benefits, etc. has influenced labor participation rates since end of 2020/maybe early 2021
HSII - damn I totally missed that dip in price. Did you grab some?
I agree that it bodes well for other microcaps. These guys are more exposed to executive search/higher end roles from what I remember. I think it will be interesting to see how it translates to other staffing companies like BGSF, JOB, etc.
Anecdotal evidence re labor: raises on average were 10% at my company. I got 15%, didn't even ask for that amount nor expect it (especially after getting 10% last year). Feels like employers may be hitting the panic button re attrition, at least in my sector.
Context: scientist at large global engineering firm in Canada that has some exposure to O&G
I'm still thinking the impact of wages on inflation are underestimated going forward...there are not many quality folks available out there at all.
USAP - agree, backlog and aerospace/defense exposure were definite positives.
re debt: For me, this is the primary drawback now. Looks like interest is approaching $1M a Q or so.
Is your thinking they can just use their tangible assets to their advantage here if they get into trouble? e.g. sale leaseback. They do have some runway to absorb a few more bad Qs because they have ~30M they can still draw from their credit facility as of last 10Q.
USAP - these guys can't get out of their own way:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-stainless-reports-preliminary-third-203100573.html
Was thinking it was a turnaround play coming up soon. No position.
GEODF - rebought at 2.26 CAD. Not sure if you guys saw that they also have a fairly large contract in Chile now:
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2702-tsx-venture/atx/127746-atex-mobilizes-drill-contractor-for-phase-iii-program-and-makes-third-option-payment-on-valeriano.html
RTMAF - the lease renegotiation seems like a definite positive.
Yeah those options were exorbitant. I mean 500,000 went to one of the Reitmans family members, basically 1% of the outstanding shares... I think the terms may have just come out in the interim financials, under note 15 it looks like exercise price of 1.50. Could be worse I guess.
https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00002316
RTMAF/RTMNF - thanks so much for detailed thoughts. Definitely agree with you. It's absolutely foolish for management to do nothing. There's been some similar thoughts, but far less rigorous than yours, floated on the Stockhouse forum (not sure if you browse that site ever). Those guys seem to think the family ownership is causing problems, but who knows...
One thing to note:
The Canadian consumer/economy is very likely going to take a much bigger hit than the USA economy with rising interest rates. Hard to say how much at this point, but it's not pretty. The change in the CAD to USD exchange rate reflects this.
From my perspective, the main reason is that ~25% of mortgages here are variable rates (I think they are termed adjustable rate mortgages in USA). Plus, the longest fixed mortgage people typically get is 5 years, and then they have to renew. The amount of moaning and groaning about rising interest rates here is incredible. It's been only 6 months... For example, it's absolutely stunning how many folks took on variable rate mortgages during the pandemic when 5-year fixed rates were < 2%...
This isn't incredibly pertinent to Reitmans, given the valuation, but the cloud over the whole retail sector in Canada is something to be aware of.
Source for variable rate mortgages by country:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-world-s-hottest-housing-markets-are-facing-a-painful-reset-1.1817601
PLPC - started buying back a bit around ~73 here.
RTMAF/RTMNF - beauty, I flipped this one a bunch when the non-voting shares dropped below 1CAD. Still own a chunk and bought few more voting shares this morning (always an odd differential between voting and non-voting it seems)
ESP - quarter was meh, sold AH. I expected better. Backlog looks decent though.
TSRI - nice trade! was caught up in other stuff most of the day and noticed that my GTC order missed by a few cents this morning around 9.50. Damn.
I'll hold, earnings in October anyway and the buyback starts in 2 days which could create some interesting trading behavior.
ESP - can some of you stop buying?
Kidding aside, took a while to get a position here just under 14. Next comp isn't great, but I think they've turned the corner and other aerospace related companies are reporting improved results.
TSRI - Q4 was good, re-entered with a small position in the low 8s.
In January, it ran on a worse quarter than this one, funny how that goes.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsr-inc-reports-record-revenue-210000105.html
PLPC - same, wish I had bought a ton more.
It peaked at a 4% position for me. I sold some today and am sitting on ~25% of my original position. I'll let the rest ride.
It could keep going, but it's been soooooo sleepy in the past that I'm surprised by the strength.
PLPC - surprising solid quarter:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/preformed-line-products-announces-second-203000893.html
added some more this morning
ASTL - a special situation here: substantial issuer bid.
They are trying to buy back a massive amount of the shares with this $400 million substantial issuer bid (~25% of the outstanding shares) . They set an offer range between 8.75 to 10.25 and I'm wondering if they are going to have to raise it. Most folks are underwater or have a very small gain at these prices.
IPCO.TO/IPCFF had to raise the offer range recently and I'm wondering if ASTL might have to do the same. I bought a few around 9 and have a larger bid closer to 8.75 and plan on seeing how this goes over the next couple of weeks.
It's one of the cheapest steel producers on an earnings basis. Probably because they are in Canada. A decent value play if you think steel prices hold up over the next little while.
TSRI - very true! I flipped out of the shares I had, since earnings are still a month away and other stuff looks more attractive.
In the staffing sector, I've got a decent bet placed on CWLPF this week in anticipation of earnings. That may not go well though based on the price action last week, so we'll see...
VHC - swampy, you done any DD here? figured you might have knowledge of the patent trolls. Another dividend coming soon from the huge cash pile?
JCTCF - funny you mention this one, I looked at it last weekend and came to a similar conclusion and bought a bit at ~6.30 this week (can only really buy a bit of this one).
This was a key line for me in the last PR:
Based on the timing of accounts receivable, the Company believes it will begin to repay the amounts borrowed on its line of credit in the third quarter, and it has sufficient working capital available for the remainder of fiscal 2022.
Previously, their earnings PRs had mentioned the possible need to raise money via a stock offering, which made me pretty disinterested.
Historically, they've been a well run company. That former CFO might be a bit too optimistic, but I think it's worth a shot. Their exposure to the pet market is the best part.
Re small biotechs - I'm pretty indifferent about what these companies do. Perhaps that's foolish. For me, it is more about the amount of cash they have combined with sentiment (and sentiment is improving in this sector at the moment), and then there's always a chance of some news related event (which worked out nicely for you with DTIL)
A good example of what RN describes is GRAY starting to look at whether they should just close up shop and pay shareholders out the cash.
NEXI - another one I've been buying. Insider buying too. I suspect you've seen it, but volume is bad compared to the other ones you've mentioned.
Thanks for bringing CABA, VINC, etc. to the board. I've been throwing small amounts into biotechs trading well under cash and it's been a decent strategy of late.
HSON - I'm less optimistic, they've never filed an S-3 before (I only checked from 2010 onwards) and I recently noticed that the CEO (Eberwein) is also involved scammy STRR (I guess he only took over in Jan 2021, so maybe not all bad).
I agree that the upcoming comp will be great, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make a really dumb acquisition. $100M seems enormous relative to the market cap of the company.
I'm on the sidelines for now.