full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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ATPG: @11:08 today ... from Briefing.com ...
A few rumors crossed our desk, as chatter increased from yesterday's session. It was rumored that Massey Energy (MEE 44.12 -0.29) could be taken over, the share did not react to the rumor. Genzyme (GENZ 53.34 -0.25) shares spiked following renewed takeover chatter, but the shares could not hold onto their gains. There was also chatter that ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG 22.76 +0.87) could be a possible takeover candidate; however shares could not hold onto their gains. As mentioned before, while many rumors circulate during the day, and the validity of the source of these rumors can be questionable, the speculation may increase volatility in the near term
stock_peeker says: I guess the Briefing.com guy didn't get the news about the $1.5 Billion financing that closed.
MERC article is interesting and implies it should do well in current qtr, but I saw at bottom of page that Shapiro is short MERC. I guess he intends to liquidate or hold the position until pulp prices start falling precipitously.
"Disclosure: Author is long MERC 8.5% convertible sub debt due Jan 2012 and is short MERC common stock. Author may buy or sell either of these securities at any time."
Right now I'm very happy to be in Tembec instead.
Thanks!
ATPG: A big banker got me into this. I wonder who he works for, maybe Paulson and company.
TMB knows how to reduce debt ... sell assets and let the debt go with them. Good job in improving the balance sheet.
Oops, added TMBCF at 2.60 ... I've gotta hope you are right and the "market" stays healthy until then. Lots of red today on the vast majority of stocks, even though the Dow is down just a few.
Salutations!
'peeker
MERC feeling the heat of a general mkt sag today.
ALLRF also suffering from fear of buying today.
In fact almost all commodity stocks are D O W N today, including gold, silver, pulp, potash, copper, ... even commode seats ...
all down.
STP.v story sounds great for oilsands, but (not to be negative, just pointing out the fact) they are an "investment banking client" of Byron Capital.
ATPG wins new concession in Gulf of Mexico.
ATP Oil & Gas announced that the Minerals Management Service accepted ATP's bid of $232,100 for Garden Banks Block 782
Co announced that the Minerals Management Service accepted ATP's bid of $232,100 for Garden Banks Block 782, also known as Entrada. ATP made the bid at the Central Gulf of Mexico Offshore Lease Sale 213 held in March 2010. Previous exploration drilling on Garden Banks 782 found logged hydrocarbons and Entrada is in the vicinity of existing infrastructure owned by others. ATP will serve as operator with a 100% working interest in Entrada, which is located in approximately 4,531 feet of water.
Sounds minor relative to Telemark potential, but does anyone know if this is near Telemark? The news says near "in the vicinity of existing infrastructure owned by others"?
IAE.v supporters abound. Thanks for the encouragement to stay with IAE.v awhile longer.
Wellington's estimated 33% reserve increase for Stella implies another significant price/share increase. Maybe I'll hold this one and let something else go for now (e.g.,PMGLF, which still has a great record and much longterm upside potential but probably has less short-term potential than IAE.v).
Again, however, if they actually buyout another company, not just buying assets, IAE.v has a short term risk of probably a 10% correction, which appears to be worth the risk vs. getting out too soon (before announcement of Stella reserve increase).
Timing is everything, but the underlying value of IAE.v may trump the timing.
'peeker
ps> Thanks again for the feedback on IAE.v present vs future value.
IAE.v ... Anybody running from IAE.v now and waiting to re-buy after they announce an acquisition?
IACAF.pk makes up too large a percentage (~20%) of my portfolio and probably need to lighten up just because of that.
Meanwhile there have been rumors that Ithaca is looking to acquire new properties/companies that fit their criteria (may already be in discussions). So I'm thinking that when they announce an acquisition (or two, whatever the case may be), the stock price will PROBABLY FALL a bit, especially if analysts come out saying they are paying too much or the company is not a good fit for Ithaca. Let's face it the stock of the acquiring company usually goes down (at least a little) while the acquired company goes up toward the offered price.
Meanwhile we wait for the new reserve estimates that result from the recent drilling at Stella Stella Stella.
Who knows, an acquisition may not hurt as much as new reserve estimates help Ithaca's stock price.
'peeker
ps> Also I'm too heavily weighted in other oils and commodity stocks in general, so Ithaca only represents one of many risks I need to address. Feedback appreciated!
SLILLZ1, well, w/ QID up 2.65% today, you've gotta be feeling above avg vs. other members of the VMC Mothers today.
Sector Summary: S&P 500 Financial Index 220.22, -8.42; Financials Hammered as SEC Announces Investigation of Goldman
The S&P 500 Financial Index was hammered as news of the SEC investigation against Goldman Sachs (GS -13.3%) crossed wires. Financials across the board were hit as investors looked to unwind positions and digest the news. The one exception was the mortgage insurers who are viewed as the main benefactors (AIG, PMI, MTG, RDN, ABK, XL) on this investigation. The announcement came at a time when valuation concerns already had investors looking for a catalyst to unwind positions. We were provided a brief view of things to come yesterday afternoon when the FAS saw a harsh rejection when it tested HoD and financials slid lower into the close.
The S&P 500 Financial Index fell all the way to 216, its lowest level since April 1. The index has recovered four points to 220 but now faces potential headwinds as the market braces for a busy calendar of financial earnings reports next week. The reaction should prove interesting as the sell off provides the potential for money on the sidelines to come into play at these depressed levels. The question is, will investors take advantage of the dip in financials or look for a safer area to place money until the smoke clears? Couple this with next weeks G-20 meeting, which is expected to produce regulatory reform headlines, and discussions of the Senate bringing the Dodd Financial reform to the floor and we could be looking at a very volatile week in the group.
The big news of course was the announcement that the SEC is bringing a civil suit against Goldman Sachs (GS). SEC charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages. The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.
There has been a significant market reaction to this news for several reasons: 1) this is the first charge of its kind against a major institution, and the potential liability to GS -- a premier financial stock -- is virtually unknown at this point; 2) given the massive amount of losses that resulted from complex derivative instruments, this potentially opens the door for a flood of lawsuits and other charges against other firms involved in similar trading; and 3) the SEC indicated that this is the first case brought by the "Structured and New Products Unit", which will specialize in cases involving these kinds of complex products -- fueling the idea that there are more charges to come.
Other items of note: 1) Bank of America (BAC -4.5%) reported Q1 results today, beating bottom line expectations by 18 cents and coming in slightly above expectations on revenues. Credit costs and provision builds remained a key concern as neither showed signs of abating compared to Q4. BAC did state 2010 is starting off in line with the opinions expressed in January. The improvement in credit quality is probably better than expectations in January and outlook for the rest of the year has also improved. However, do have revenue head winds in the second half of the year as customers continue to de-lever, and realize the full adoption of regulations which will impact net interest income, card and service charges. From an earnings perspective it will depend on how fast credit improves and expenses are kept under control versus the drop in revenue. However, by the end of the year should start to see some stabilization in revenue levels at which time it may be able to talk about growth due to improved consumer and commercial
Hmmm... Just wondering whether TRGD gets to take earnings credit for TARM earnings (whenever they start) since it owns more than 40% of TARM.
The question arises because of an analogous situation with GORO, another stock I own. Hochschild has been planning to acquire up to 40% or GORO so that it can take credit for GORO's earnings. Not sure how that works exactly or whether it pertains only to Hochschild because they are German (?) where the laws may be different for taking credit for earnings.
As for "financials" ... (cough cough), when I spoke to the CEO (Mr. Biscuit) about a month ago, he said he expects financials to be completed and up to date in 3-6 months. HOWEVER, given Bobwins's elephant memory and comment about hearing the same estimate 5 years ago, I have to agree we can't hang our investment hats on any TRGD/TARM CEO promise.
'peeker
ps> Mamona, not sure if I'm cynical or just burned so many times that I'm damned skeptical, but whatever .... I guess we just is what we is, regardless of what we call it ;>)
Interesting perspective about BHP ongoing involvement and China Minerals' private placement participation to "set a floor".
By the way, the value of China Minerals' 8million shares has gone up 100% already, so they must be happy; original $2million investment now worth $4million just for "setting a floor". Of course the off-take agreement gives them the right to buy the potash from Allana (or BHP) at an agreeable price discount (good for everybody).
Added ALLRF.pk today, raising my cost basis to about $.40/sh, so I'm ready for the run to $.60 now.
'peeker
Brent Crude at >$87 cannot last much longer ...
Unemployment still keeping people off the roads ... summer coming up so vacations will increase driving, but even if the economy does exhibit mild growth, the price of oil is still TOO HIGH.
Considering a change of approach on the IACAF, ATPG, MAUXF, MILL, and PMGLF I own, as I've continue to accumulate most as they went up.
Considering treating about half my oil shares as investment shares (longer term commitment) and half as trading shares (depending on direction of oil prices).
I may decide to hedge instead with an oil X3BEAR ETF if I can find one.
GLTA, 'peeker
* Higher prices to reduce tax on Canadian lumber exports to U.S.
* First time tax has dropped under 2006 trade deal
* Lower tax would begin May 1 (In U.S. dollars)
VANCOUVER, April 9 (Reuters) - Lumber prices have recovered enough to allow Canadian forestry firms to begin paying a lower export tax on softwood shipments to the United States starting in May, British Columbia officials said on Friday.
Data released on Friday showed the North American lumber price over the past four weeks has averaged $325 per thousand board feet, high enough to reduce the tax rate paid by Western Canadian sawmills to 10 percent from 15 percent.
It marks the first time that lumber prices have been high enough to allow for a tax rate reduction since the taxes were imposed under the 2006 U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement, British Columbia Forests Minister Pat Bell said.
Major lumber producers in British Columbia and Alberta include West Fraser Timber (WFT.TO), Canfor (CFP.TO), Tolko Industries, and International Forest Products (IFPa.TO)
Eastern-headquartered producers include Tembec (TMB.TO) and Domtar (UFS.TO), which recently announced it was selling its mills to newcomer Eacom Timber Corp (ETR.V).
Sawmills in Central Canada, whose exports are subject to a combination of export taxes and shipment quotas, will see the tax rate drop to 3 percent from 5 percent and quota restrictions ease slightly.
An Ontario official said the province was still awaiting confirmation from the federal government that the rates will be reduced.
Federal officials were not available for comment.
Under the terms of the treaty, the lower rates will take effect May 1.
Sawmills in British Columbia and Alberta are required to pay a 15 percent rate when the four-week average price is $315 or less. The tax could drop to 5 percent if the average climbs above $335 and would be eliminated if it goes above $355.
The taxes and restraints on shipments from Ontario and Quebec are readjusted at the same price marks.
The average framing lumber composite price last week was $328 per thousand board feet, up from $319 a week before and $196 last year, according to Friday's Random Lengths market report, which is used in treaty to determine the export tax rate.
"It is a positive indicator that British Columbia's forest sector may be starting on the road to recovery," said Bell, whose province accounts for about half of Canada's softwood lumber exports.
Industry analysts have said that while the higher prices are encouraging, they likely reflect reduced production capacity rather than significant increased demand for the wood used largely in housing construction.
Sawmills across Canada and the United States have cut production or shutdown completely over the past three years because of the U.S. housing market collapse.
Production in Atlantic Canada was not covered by the 2006 trade deal, which was aimed at ending U.S. complaints that Canada subsidizes its lumber industry.
The Canadian government collects the taxes on exports, with the money refunded to the provincial governments. (Reporting Allan Dowd, editing by Peter Galloway)
IAE.v :>)
Drank the Kool-Aid and bought more.
Still tastes GOGOGOGOOD.
Best Regards and GLTA,
'peeker
I appreciate Bill Reid's candor in this latest release. The fact that they have had problems is no surprise (all new mills have lots of problems getting the kinks worked out). He was honest enough to say that the yield is less than expected, and they will continue to use lower grade ore while they continue working out the kinks (operational and training issues).
Bravo, we are now selling concentrate (generating revenues). Current qtr revs will be less than we all hoped, but they should be doing very well operationally before the start of Q3, so they will start bringing in lots of cash over the summer.
Rollem Rollem Rollem, keep that mill a rollin', Raw Hide!!!
Oops! Starting to show my age again ... GLTA GORO holders ...
'peeker
GORO NEWS
APRIL 14, 2010
GOLD RESOURCE CORPORATION SHIPS FIRST CONCENTRATES UPDATES AGUILA MILL COMMISSIONING
DENVER – April 14, 2010 – Gold Resource Corporation (GRC) (OTCBB: GORO, FRANKFURT: GIH) is pleased to announce shipment of the first concentrates for sale from its El Aguila Project. The Company’s El Aguila Project is located in Oaxaca, Mexico.
Gold Resource Corporation’s first shipment of concentrates has now been made and sold under contract to Consorcio Minero de Mexico Cormin Mex, S.A. de C.V. (a Trafigura Group Company) who will take delivery at a Mexican port for ultimate shipment to a smelter. Trafigura is the second largest buyer of concentrates in the world.
William W. Reid, President of Gold Resource Corporation stated, “This is an important milestone in the progress of the El Aguila Project. It has taken essentially two months to get the mill running consistently from a mechanical point of view. With the mechanical aspects now behind us, our focus has shifted to the last part of commissioning, optimizing the mill operationally and metallurgically. We have not yet achieved designed throughput nor designed recovery so we are still running low grade ore until these final parameters are achieved. It may take several more weeks to optimize the grinding and flotation circuits and achieve the level of training and operator experience necessary before commercial production can be declared. We are very pleased with the commitment and accomplishments of our people as they work through these important steps.”
GORO NEWS
APRIL 14, 2010
GOLD RESOURCE CORPORATION SHIPS FIRST CONCENTRATES UPDATES AGUILA MILL COMMISSIONING
DENVER – April 14, 2010 – Gold Resource Corporation (GRC) (OTCBB: GORO, FRANKFURT: GIH) is pleased to announce shipment of the first concentrates for sale from its El Aguila Project. The Company’s El Aguila Project is located in Oaxaca, Mexico.
Gold Resource Corporation’s first shipment of concentrates has now been made and sold under contract to Consorcio Minero de Mexico Cormin Mex, S.A. de C.V. (a Trafigura Group Company) who will take delivery at a Mexican port for ultimate shipment to a smelter. Trafigura is the second largest buyer of concentrates in the world.
William W. Reid, President of Gold Resource Corporation stated, “This is an important milestone in the progress of the El Aguila Project. It has taken essentially two months to get the mill running consistently from a mechanical point of view. With the mechanical aspects now behind us, our focus has shifted to the last part of commissioning, optimizing the mill operationally and metallurgically. We have not yet achieved designed throughput nor designed recovery so we are still running low grade ore until these final parameters are achieved. It may take several more weeks to optimize the grinding and flotation circuits and achieve the level of training and operator experience necessary before commercial production can be declared. We are very pleased with the commitment and accomplishments of our people as they work through these important steps.”
CSGH earnings out, but not stellar. No info in 10Q about the companies performing evaluation of their battery products. Down 11%.
Meanwhile ... "Houston, we have a problem." TRGD ($.565/sh) and TARM ($2.15/sh) not showing the same positive price momentum as producers with well-established reserves and mine life.
:>)
'peeker
AUMN: Anyone have a strong opinion about how to value this low float mining company that supposedly has rights to mine lots of great properties?
Do they need to issue lots of new shares to fund a large capital spending program, then execute drilling on numerous properties at the same time to get the stock price moving?
I really liked this news about drill results at El Quevar. This low float stock still seems to have lots of potential upside, but the question is ... what will get the upside movement started? I was surprised to see it hit $8.40 then drop back near unchanged.
Hopefully they won't do too many cheap private placements before they are able to fund ops with positive cashflow.
Disclosure: I own a chunk of AUMN at avg price of about $7.50 but am considering moving about half of that to another commodity "producer" that has some positive price momentum (e.g., GORO, MAUXF, ALLRF, ATPG, OCANF, IACAF).
'peeker
Now that the Canadian dollar is worth more than the US dollar, is it time to start calling our currency the US Loonie? Seems only fair, given that a dollar is a dollar until it's not worth a dollar.
IAE CEO said Stella results due out late this week or early next.
Excerpt from yesterday's news:
"Ithaca is currently awaiting the results from an appraisal well on its Stella block in the Central North Sea, which could see its 'proved plus probable' reserves rise.
McKendrick said he was expecting the results for Stella later this week or early next week."
Meanwhile the unusually strong dollar is beating down almost anything that smells like a commodity play today.
Outlook for AAA.v stock price long-term still looks very good, but short-intermediate timeframe, it will probably act like KCL.to (Potash One), which has an even longer development timeframe. Some just don't want to wait that long, so they move to other investments while thinking they can hop back on AAA.v before "the big run-up".
I'm holding some and hoping to add on weakness (if it ever happens), but part of my "trading plan" is to get out of a stock when it doesn't move up after a certain amount of time and invest the funds in something that is moving.
By not holding AAA.v one misses "the big run-up", but the long mine development time infers slow stock movement rather than "a quick double" on drilling news.
Still, I am holding some AAA.v, hoping that another deal with Chinese company will get at least a 25% spike (on large volume) from here.
JMHO,
'peeker
Thanks for the help. Are you still positive about AAA.v (Allana)?
'peeker
ps> I've got a farm and want to sell some of the pulp wood into the strong pulp market, but other timber prices remain depressed.
RE: Meeting w/ well-known analysts on Pulp companies
With whom did you speak at the meeting? Were you pitching TMB and MERC to them? Were other companies with bright prospects mentioned?
Thanks for sharing your great DD.
'peeker\
ps> Congrats for holding AGM til you had the big gains.
OT: Kickme Kickme Kickme!
Sold AGM on 24March and bought MILL.
Kickme Kickme Kickme!
'peeker
ps> 20-20 perspective: stupid is as stupid does.
Credibility issues and production unknowns
MILL.ob seller that drove it down yesterday seems to be working it down again today. I guess Miller had gotten ahead of itself, especially in light of the CHEEP CHEEP CHEEP private offering recently, and some see no reason to stay with it short-term when the opportunity (for substantial gains) is more long-term.
Wish they were cashflow positive and ramping production a little faster to keep the momentum positive.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> By the way, Miller's past history of quarterly losses indicates they probably have accrued some carry-forward losses to lessen the tax bite for their property acquisition gain. I continue to wonder how much tax they will owe in short-term for the big gain.
TMB.to selling French pulp mills ... what ya think about this? Also, what is your idea of a fair value for TMB.to? Is this your favorite pulp play, or is MERC still more undervalued?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts,
Steve
_______________________________________________________________
Press Release: TEMBEC On Thursday April 1, 2010, 4:15 pm EDT
TEMISCAMING, QC, April 1 /CNW Tembec/ - Tembec today announced that its European subsidiary, Tembec SAS, is in advanced negotiations with Paper Excellence B.V. for the sale of two Kraft pulp mills located in Tarascon and Saint-Gaudens, France. This potential transaction would be the culmination of a process first announced in November of 2009.
As currently proposed, Paper Excellence B.V. would acquire 100% of the shares of Tembec Saint-Gaudens SAS and Tembec Tarascon SAS, two subsidiaries of Tembec SAS. The total consideration for the proposed transaction would be approximately 100 million Euros (C $137 million) allocated as between shares and assumption of debt, subject to closing working capital adjustments.
Due to the advanced nature of the negotiations, Tembec SAS has initiated the process of consultation with mill employee committees, as required under French Law. Tembec SAS expects to finalize the transaction shortly after the consultation process is complete.
"This contemplated transaction is consistent with the Strategic Plan launched by the Company following the February 2008 recapitalization of our balance sheet and, in our view, represents fair value for these assets," said James Lopez, President and CEO of Tembec.
OT: Kozuh, go back to Kozuhkistan!
News Flash: Wife Says Her Husband Is Recovering.
Fresh from my shower, I stood in front of the mirror complaining to my husband that my breasts were too small.
Instead of characteristically telling me it's not so, he uncharacteristically comes up with a suggestion.
"If you want your breasts to grow, then every day take a piece of toilet paper and rub it between them for a few seconds."
Willing to try anything, I fetched a piece of toilet paper and stood in front of the mirror, rubbing it between my breasts.
"How long will this take?" I asked.
"They will grow larger over a period of years," my husband replies.
I stopped. " Do you really think rubbing a piece of toilet paper between my breasts every day will make my breasts larger over the years?"
Without missing a beat he says "Worked for your butt, didn't it?"
He is still alive, and with a great deal of therapy, he may even walk again.
Stupid, stupid man.
ESPH: Back up to 1.25 today. Yes, reentry yesterday would be a great idea, but I didn't have enough sense to bite. Did you?
Parity: $C1.00=$US1.00
W O W !!! I'm feeling a little Loonie ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter?amt=1&from=CAD&to=USD&submit=Convert#from=CAD;to=USD;amt=1
As Yogi Berra's son would say, "It's Back to the Future all over again".
Nice move today. I guess they are going to sell some concentrate and announce it soon. I spoke to Bill Reid briefly last week. He was cranky and said they were working hard to get things stabilized at site and adequate training to keep things going. They have concentrate on hand but hadn't sold any yet.
Announcing sale of first concentrate will not be enough to take it considerably higher. Commissioning of the mill is the big event that has taken too long already. We have no visibility to what the problems have been, but we can certainly look forward to their reaching steady-state operations and stabilization at X tons thruput per day.
'peeker
AGM: What's going on?
Anyone know why stock is trading up 50% since I sold 2 wks ago? Stock dipped into 8's and is now around $13.50 despite the unknowns about future business. I don't understand. Woe is me.
'peeker
ps> Thanks for the template, Wade.
ESPH (-18% today) granting of patents doesn't appear to be worth much today. Maybe they will file for some revenues and profits sometime soon.
MILL raises more money on the CHEEP!!! Anybody here get some?
Miller Energy Resources Receives Subscriptions for $5 Million in Financing Round
Thursday 04/01/2010 9:22 AM ET - Marketwire
Miller Petroleum, Inc., dba Miller Energy Resources (OTCBB: MILL), announced today that it has received signed subscription agreements from accredited and institutional investors to sell $5,017,002 million in Units of its equity securities in a private offering. Under the terms of the securities purchase agreement, Miller Energy Resources will issue and sell an aggregate of 1,443,432 shares of its common stock at an offering price of $3.50 per share, and will issue the subscribers five-year warrants to purchase an additional 716,716 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $5.28 per share. These warrants can also be exercised on a cashless basis. Sutter Securities Incorporated acted as the finder in this transaction and will be entitled to receive a cash fee and warrants as its compensation. The closing is subject to customary closing conditions and closing is anticipated to occur on April 1, 2010. Following the closing, Miller Energy Resources has agreed to register the shares to be issued and sold in the offering, including the shares underlying the warrants, with the Securities and Exchange Commission so as to permit the public resale thereof.
"This will be the second successful equity raise for Miller Energy Resources this year," said Scott M. Boruff, Miller CEO. "We are very pleased with the confidence investors have demonstrated in our ambitious business plan for the upcoming fiscal year and beyond. We look forward to a prompt closing of the offering."