full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Can anyone help me out by providing any valuation information?
I realize SHOM is a MOMO play lately but ...
What is a reasonable valuation (like Shareprice/Revenues ratio) for a medical services company like SHOM?
According to their Financial Statement at end of 2015, they have:
786,509,863 shares Common outstanding
10,000,000 shares Preferred A outstanding
10,000,000 shares Preferred C outstanding
Does anyone know how Preferred A and Preferred C shares relate to value of Common shares? For instance is each Preferred A or C share convertible into 2-20 Common shares or some such ratio?
Do Preferred A and C share holders earn some annual interest?
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=150889
Honestly looking for some way to determine a reasonable total market valuation for this company. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
'stockpeeker'
Legs? Pennyland? 2-5cents?
On what could you possibly base such lofty expectations, other than over-inflated optimism and "irrational exuberence"?
OK, Rabbit, I must ask:
What do you think the medical equip and medical services ARE worth?
What is a REALISTIC VALUATION? It has really skyrocketed since the March 7 news mentioning progress toward a merger.
SHOM increased annual revenues to just over $1 million/yr by issuing lots of stock last year to buyout some of their more profitable franchisees.
Now a little over a million dollars in annual revenue is not chump change, but the overall margin (showing only about $60K profit) is not impressive. They do have costs of running the operation, but geesch, they must be spending lots on IT platform maintenance and salaries.
Personally I would not expect SHOM to sell for more than 3xRevenues, or about $3million, so that means current valuation of $.004/share is about right.
$.004/share x 770million shares = $3million
Given that there may be a merger rather than outright sale, the "merger" may be nothing more than a combination of equals, and the result would be nothing more than a somewhat larger company with greater geographical footprint, but it's not clear that economies of scale will really make any combination much more lucrative.
If it pops to above $.005/share I may have to sell. Any buying above that level would make it seem like Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" was alive and well with SHOM.
Best to All,
'stockpeeker'
Chen Lin's recent opinion on MMT.v/MAUXF??
Anyone willing to pass along any recent comments on Mart? Of course if he is selling Mart, he would not run it down before he has sold it all. I used to subscribe to his newsletter but not anymore.
TIA
'peeker
Chen Lin letter ... bad performance ... not worth the price!
cl001 is a member on these boards, but he doesn't comment here anymore (couldn't justify free comments when he charges so much for his newsletter).
I dropped the letter due poor performance and several other complaints (listed below). Over the last two years I have not done well by using his letter's recommendations, probably because his recommendations (and my investments) have been overweight energy stocks (particularly MMT.v).
Here are just some of my complaints:
1. He is front-running, that is, he doesn't suggest you buy until he has bought, and he doesn't suggest you sell unless he has sold. This is clearly spelled out in his fine print, but it means his subscribers cannot easily make the gains he does.
2. He refuses to disclose how many subscribers he has. He likes to market his letter as an elite letter that is only available to higher-income sophisticated investors.
3. He only signs up new subscribers on a quarterly basis (no reason stated, but requires people to get on a waiting list). This approach also may be used to keep existing subscribers onboard rather than stop for awhile because they would have to go to the back of the line if they want to re-subscribe.
4. His performance cannot be tracked. He publishes buy and sell recommendations but doesn't say how much he buys of anything.
5. This last year, he has done lots of options trades, but I think it is just a way to add a few big gainers to his run-of-the-mill performers.
6. He seems to have lost his "mojo", and he has certainly held many stocks too way long vs. setting protective stops. I have some suspicions that he has certain relationships with good buddies that he does not wish to hurt by selling things they like. On the whole I have seen him have several emotional favorites (pharma stocks to cure cancer and save boys with muscular diseases).
7. He does not publish how his portfolio is doing quarterly or annually, probably because the performance numbers would be damning. It is entirely possible that for the last two years he has made more money from his newsletter subscribers than he has made on his trades. For instance if he has 2000 subscribers at $750/annum, he is making $1.5 million in revenue on the subscriptions.
8. He does not respond to individual questions. Too busy, couldn't possibly respond to all requests, etc. If so, he must have a lot of subscribers, lending evidence to the theory that he makes more on his letter than his trades.
9. It's just not worth the price.
JMHO,
'peeker
CNE.to just took a nasty slapdown from somewhere. WHAP!!! Yowch! Yep, I own some, and I like your analyst summary. Not sure what is happening there.
Well, the shares of FRMA are finally about to flow to TRGD stockholders. Of course on the news, FRMA dropped significantly, based on expectation that TRGD shareholders will probably hope to unload their FRMA soon after it arrives. OK, so now I'm thinking FRMA may be undervalued? What are their "SmartPac" technology and two mining projects really worth?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tara-gold-announces-distribution-firma-213720335.html
Excerpt:
HENDERSON, NV--(Marketwired - Jan 27, 2015) - Firma Holdings Corp. (OTCQB: FRMA) announces that Tara Gold Resources Corp. is distributing 0.38843 shares of Firma for each outstanding share of Tara Gold. Any fractional shares will be rounded down to the nearest whole share. The Record Date is January 28, 2015, and the Payment Date is February 5, 2015.
Upon the completion of this distribution, Tara Gold will no longer hold any shares of Firma Holdings.
Firma Holdings was incorporated on May 12, 2006 as Tara Minerals Corp., a subsidiary of Tara Gold Resources. Tara Gold has held Tara Minerals shares since its inception. On June 3, 2014, the Articles of Incorporation were amended to change the name to Firma Holdings Corp.
About Firma Holdings Corp. (http://www.FirmaHoldings.com)
Firma recently acquired intellectual property for the preservation and protection of fresh fruit, vegetables and flowers during extended periods of shipping and storage. The patented technology, known as "SmartPac", is a bulk produce packaging system available for world-wide generic industry applications. In addition to the SmartPac technology, Firma also holds US and Mexico mining projects.
CNE.to/CNNEF tests excellent gas well in Columbia.
This is a Chen pick. I guess he was right on this one. CNE.to says that their existing sales agreements leave them free of oil price problems facing most E&P companies. Well, at least that's the case on 42% of their production.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canacol-energy-ltd-tests-21-233000741.html
Clarinete 1, the first well drilled in its recently acquired VIM 5 Exploration and Production ("E&P") Contract, has tested at a final gross rate of 20.6 million standard cubic feet per day ("mmscfpd") (3,606 barrels of oil equivalent "boepd") of dry gas with no water in the first of two planned production tests over two separate reservoir intervals.
Link to today's news:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-home-medical-inc-announces-050000521.html;_ylt=AwrBT9ydYcZU3w0AU8NXNyoA
GREER, SC / ACCESSWIRE / January 26, 2015 / Southern Home Medical, Inc. (OTC Pink: SHOM) (SHOM), a holding company providing healthcare services, staffing and medical equipment to medical institutions and facilities announced today that it has signed a letter of intent to purchase back the Greenville/Spartanburg, SC market.
"The healthcare industry is growing and changing as we have never seen before," says Jeffrey L Sarvis, President & CEO of Southern Home Medical, Inc. "This creates many opportunities to leverage our geographical footprint and broaden our core business, increase market penetration and expand our revenue base."
This letter of intent provides for parties to complete a formal due diligence process over the next few weeks, with a final decision completed by January 31st. "We clearly see synergies associated with this transaction, and we look forward to continued success of the Encore brand," commented Buffy Tucker, Managing Partner with the Greenville/Spartanburg office.
08:31 PEIX merger with AVRW:
Pacific Ethanol enters into merger agreement with Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (AVRW) (shares are halted) (10.71)
Pacific Ethanol and Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, a Midwest-based producer of ethanol and related co-products, announced they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Pacific Ethanol will acquire all of Aventine's outstanding shares in a stock-for-stock merger transaction.
"This transaction will more than double our annual ethanol production capacity, and it will establish PEIX as the fifth largest producer and marketer of ethanol in the United States.
Once closed, co expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to earnings with expected operational synergies and the expansion of its ethanol and co-product marketing business.
Under the terms of the merger agreement, Pacific Ethanol expects to issue ~17.75 million shares of its common stock upon closing in exchange for all of the issued and outstanding shares of Aventine's common stock.
Upon completion, existing Pacific Ethanol shareholders will own ~58% of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock of the combined entity, and Aventine will nominate two representatives to be named later to Pacific Ethanol's board of directors, increasing the total board count to nine. Aventine currently has $135 million in term loan debt.
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlay.htm#ixzz3NTxzesYl
An Updated Look at Some Frac Sand Stocks (from Briefing.com)
Along with the collapse in oil prices, frac sand producers -- whose sand, called proppant, is used it horizontal drilling -- have seen their share prices take a beating. The reasoning, of course, is that the economics for producing oil is less attractive for E&P companies, therefore, reducing drilling plans, capital budgets, and demand for frac sand. We have seen evidence of this already as large oil & gas producers have pulled-back on their capital budget plans -- notably, ConocoPhillips (COP) announced on December 8 that its 2015 capital budget will likely be lower by 20% compared to 2014. However, this week, a few major frac sand players presented at the Wells Fargo Energy Symposium, and while there seemed to be a general resignation that lower crude prices will ratchet down expectations next year, the tone hardly was one of "the sky is falling."
For instance, U.S Silica (SLCA) said that demand for frac sand is still expected to double between 2013-2016, FMSA Holdings (FMSA) said that there is now a 24 month wait for rail cars and next year it expects to have over 200 unit trains for shipments, and that at $60 oil, it expects proppant demand to still be up in 2015. Additionally, on December 5, Robert Baird upgraded Emerge Energy Services (EMES), FMSA Holdings (FMSA), and Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) to Outperform, stating that frac sand providers have been oversold relative to the 20% capex reduction firm sees as likely in the oilfield.
Finally, on December 5, HCLP's Co-CEO bought 30K shares of stock, and on December 4, an FMSA Director bought 4,500 shares of stock.
While it can be treacherous to try and pick a bottom, there seems to be some good footing here in terms of at least starting to consider these stocks. As we lay-out below, the valuation on some of these stocks is downright dirt cheap.
Company/Ticker Revenue/Growth (Y/Y)* Revenue/Growth (FY15) EBITDA* EPS (FY15) 1-Year Forward P/E 1Year Forward P/S Dividend Yield Stock Performance (1 Month)
US Silica/SLCA
$627.2 M/+58% $1.1 B/+26% $165.1 M $3.21/+33% 8.3x 1.4x 1.8% -35%
Hi-Crush Partners/HCLP
$255.6M/+122% $521.0M/+48% $103.4 M $4.29/+36% 7.7x 2.3x 7.8% -27%
Emerge Energy/EMES
$868.7M/+39% $1.4B/+20% $95.6 M $7.12/+85% 7.2x 0.8x 12% -40%
FMSA Holdings/FMSA $1.0B/+41% $1.5/+11% $296.9 M $1.29/+17% 5.7x 0.77x 0% -43%
*Nine Months Ended Sept 30, 2014
**Highlighted = metrics in which that particular stock has the best metric.
A few observations about the above data... Topline growth has been very impressive for all of these companies, but, that is well-known at this point. Each of these companies is comfortably profitable on an EBITDA basis, and, generate plenty of cash. Growth rates for revenue in FY15 will decelerate, and may still be too optimistic as estimates come down, but, solid double-digit growth still looks attainable.
EMES and HCLP have impressive dividend yields, but, those too may come down as they cut their distributions in coming quarters.
From a valuation basis, FMSA is the cheapest, and, its shares have also been hit the hardest.
Disclaimer: The author of this article owns shares of FMSA.
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/DisplayArticle/Article.aspx?ArticleId=NS20141211100312TheNextBigThing#ixzz3LbhnjYZ6
Finally got some Umugini (well over a year late)!!!!!
The potential is there to greatly increase daily production, lower pipeline losses, and (probably) more than double annual cashflow. Unfortunately the CEO's credibility has been tainted by the rosy projections and delayed execution.
IMHO the price of MMT will be limited until the company can announce that the Umusadege field has produced over 30,000bopd. It should come by some time in Q1, I hope, but there's a history of the unforeseen limiting Mart's execution.
At any rate, it feels better to be a Martian today than it did yesterday.
'peeker
Saudi oil production is set according to their own interests. US shale oil production has been booming and is market driven (cost/profit driven), that is, no (OPEC-like) government entity sets the amount being produced by US oil producers. The Saudis only accelerated the drop in oil prices by not dropping their own production. The shale oil boom (increase in world oil supply) helped take price down to about $80, and the Saudis just helped it drop another notch in a hurry by not dropping Saudi production to offset continuing US supply growth.
The smaller shale oil producers (as well as all oilsands producers) will probably be under pressure for a long time if oil prices remain low; banks will be tighter with their loans for drilling new wells, particularly they will limit how much the small guys can leverage (borrow) to drill more wells quickly. Capex will be reduced in 2015 and 2016 if prices remain low.
Political factors are at play here along with market forces, as cheaper gasoline prices and electric power prices help consumers feel like their standard of living has increased. Nations like Nigeria, Iran, Russia will suffer from the lower price of oil.
Last comment: If Iran comes to terms over their nuclear program, they will be allowed to produce production by about 2 million barrels a day, so you might say if peace breaks out, oil prices will continue lower with more oil in the world market.
OK, me shut up now.
Interesting article about cost to produce oil from Shale:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023
The main point is it's much cheaper for OPEC than most of our US Shale Oil producers. Below is another useful link to Stockhouse MMT board for some info about cost to produce from various countries vs. shale fields in US:
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.mmt/mart-resources-inc?postid=23184696
IMHO - It's not about fraccing or not; it's about overall production cost (including interest on loans to buy the land and drill AND FRAC the wells).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html
Don't forget to include he who was the Scare-Crow in the tumbleweed version of the Wizard of 'OZ'.
PS> Is Qutar near Kozuh? They do sorta rhyme.
Nobody is attacking fracing technology or companies; they are attacking the glut created by high-cost producers. OPEC cannot control oil price erosion by just cranking back their own production. The big increases in world supply have come from the US shale producers in particular. In fact OPEC procuction has held steady over the last few years with very little production increase.
OPEC decided that the only way to reduce the supply increases from the US was to drop the price so that high-cost US producers would no longer find it cost-effective to drill, drill, drill. As a result of OPEC's letting the price drop, many high-cost producers will have trouble getting the loans they need to drill more wells.
Another consequence of this oil price "shock" is the strain it puts on high-interest bonds/loans held by banks, which will be less inclined to lend to marginal producers, whose cashflow is reduced.
09:08 COMDX
Oil prices are feeling pressure this morning after headlines report that Saudi Arabia is saying the oil market will stabilize, which seems to have come after meeting with Russia.... current talk indicates that a major change in OPEC output is not likely
(ME: It will be interesting to see how oil prices respond after the holiday wkend if OPEC doesn't drop production at all.) It's amazing to see a stock like old favorite TGA down so far. Yes they have large accts receivable as Egyptian govt is behind in paying its bills, but TGA intends to increase production to about 40Kboepd in the next year or two.
IR who? I thought they had no IR per se; that is, the CEO handles that himself.
mmt.to/mauxf news on OML18 deal:
Mostly contractual mumbojumbo with few real details on when the deal will complete or exactly what the deal will mean for cashflow.
IMHO this only adds to the uncertainty rather than providing clarity that can be used to compute future cashflow/profitability.
I would have preferred to hear good news on Umugini operational startup but this is what we got today:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mart-participates-consortium-acquire-onshore-120000017.html
MMT.to/MAUXF: Where we are now:
Good news today gave it a nice bounce.
Due to Mart's agreement with their partners and the heavy capital outlay to drill the horizontals and eastern prospect, Mart will probably receive about 85+% of monthly revenues until they have cost recovery for paying UMU-3, -4, -12 drilling expenses, with recovery of drilling expenses for UMU 13 soon to follow. In other words, Mart will be receiving most of the proceeds on oil for the next 3-6 months at least, so Q4 could be a great cashflow quarter if they can just get started. 1Q15 cashflow and profitability should be outstanding. I think someone had computed annual cashflow some time back, but that was based on $110/boepd. Oops, we now see Brent down about $25 from that. Too bad we couldn't have started this process a year ago when oil was up and Pioneer Tax status was in effect.
Optimistic thought:
At any rate, Mart's stock price should begin to rebound nearterm, or so it seems to the optimistic me.
Pessimistic thought:
Any PP or London IPO to cover cost of acquiring 10-15% share of OML18 would cause some dilution and lessen the value of Umugini oilflow to Mart, or so it seems to my pessimistic self.
Obvious short-term risks:
1. Continued unimaginable delays in Umugini startup.
2. Further drop in Brent oil prices.
3. News that says dividend has been discontinued (anything is better than nothing).
4. Concerns over terms and price paid for OML18 purchase
Obvious medium-term risks:
1. NNPC retains operatorship of OML18, slowing activities designed to improve production.
2. Bad well at the eastern prospect UMU13.
Martians rock!
'peeker
Since you find Jeff so "easy to talk to", please ask him:
How much stock and cash (and new debt?) was used in purchasing the franchise offices?
What is his plan and estimated incremental cost of managing the various offices from the HQ office?
Don't get me wrong; I think he is easy to talk to as well, but I haven't talked with him in a year or so.
I'm concerned that he will run into complications with managing several offices efficiently and keeping customers happy enough to grow the business.
Regards,
'peeker
REX problem is ethanol price direction and volatility, causing future margin uncertainty. Current corn prices are beneficial, but dropping corn prices also put pressure on price of their products.
Ethanol Dec futures down another nickel today it seems, thus we are seeing continued pressure on ethanol stocks.
Laws of supply and demand are at work!
INA board on InvestorVillage is pretty active. I own some (underwater) and am encouraged that the new CEO and Chairman of the Board will be able to turn it around. They want to buy producing assets that improve cashflow, plus want to refinance significant debt. Timing may apply as the Scottish independence vote this week could impact stock price.
Oiljack at IV has put a lot of time and money into INA, but he wanted the company to put itself up for sale prior management changes.
It seems undervalued but Huntington production has not been as predicted, thus CF has been underwhelming. They still own some great prospects and could do very well over the next year if they don't run into problems with existing debtholders.
When trading ethanol stocks, I use Bloomberg's Ag Commodity prices so I can see corn and ethanol prices on same page.
According to Bloomberg:
Corn December contract is at US$3.41/bushel
Ethanol December contract is at US$1.75/gal
Bloomberg Ag Commodity Prices
14:52 REX up; here's why!
REX American Resources: Hearing upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sidoti (90.69 +5.09)
Has anyone spoken to CEO about the total cost of acquiring the franchise offices thus far. The news release said they bought the various franchise offices out with cash and stock, so we know there has been some degree of dilution.
If we don't know the cost and the estimated increase in revenues it's impossible to make a knowledgeable decision to buy or sell from here.
Yes, I like the idea of new revenues but we need to be able to calculate revenues/share. If the CEO won't give the info now, we'll have to wait til they announce current quarter results in mid-late october.
Share count after purchasing the offices of the franchisees? It was cash AND shares, so details do matter here!
OT: Whether it's REX or PEIX or MMT.to(MAUXF), or INA.v(IONAF), or good ol' BCC.ax(BCGQF) or KOZUH(elevator) ...
We're All Bozos on This Bus
PEIX outstanding warrants and negative impact on EPS?
Have you accounted for outstanding (in-the-money) warrants and probable estimated negative impact on earnings? I have not, but nobody has discussed this potential negative against possible PEIX stock upside. Maybe that unknown is what helped pull PEIX down last week. Not sure what dropped REX to its knees, except that it had run up so far, plus Wade was selling a bunch last week (jk).
Regards,
'peeker
08:34 PEIX
Pacific Ethanol announces agreement to sell CO2 from its Columbia Plant in Boardman, Oregon (20.01)
Co announced its agreement with Kodiak Carbonic, LLC to sell CO2 from the Pacific Ethanol Columbia plant located in Boardman, Oregon. Kodiak plans to construct a liquefaction and dry ice processing plant adjacent to the Columbia facility and expects to purchase up to 200 tons of CO2 per day to sell to food processing and beverage producers
Thanks for the perspective; glad your family members are so smart!
Wade, re: "Ethanol stocks taking a breather?"
This past week they seem to have had an asthma attack.
Many of us expected a quick rebound after what seemed like a panic selloff, but it hasn't started yet. Perhaps the White House wanting to increase ethanol production will help.
I am out of both PEIX and REX at this point. Both were moderate sized positions for me. Hated getting stopped out of REX at 97 after buying at 107 just a few days ago. Sold the PEIX in the 23 area, so that balanced some of the REX effect on portfolio.
Though I like the near-term certain high profitability of ethanol companies, it is clear now that quick reversals in ethanol prices really hurt the ethanol stocks; so in that respect they do seem to follow the price direction of the underlying commodity.
Perhaps you unloaded at least a portion of your overweight positions in these two on the way down and can repurchase for a rebound when a bounce begins. But wait ... maybe you were selling a significant portion of your shares last week, thereby facilitating the drop in REX and PEIX?
I hope to repurchase PEIX and/or REX and play them again when it appears ethanol and the stocks have started a rebound. IMHO ethanol stock investor actions are more easily tied to ethanol price direction than to the slightly more complex "spread" direction.
Both PEIX and REX are making great profits in the current qtr, and they should do well next qtr as well, unless the "spread" tightens significantly. Any significant upward move in ethanol price should bolster both stocks since corn prices will probably be down for the rest of this year.
Do you have a strategy for profiting from possible continuing volatility in PEIX and REX over the coming weeks? Maybe wait to buy back til we get much closer to the next earnings report?
These two stocks appear to be a better buy now than they were two weeks ago, but uncertainty about future quarters may keep them down awhile.
You haven't commented much on these stocks in the last few days, so I'm curious how you responded to the selloff and your strategy on how to play these stocks from here.
Good luck!
Regards,
'peeker
In retrospect, it is obvious that the REX downgrade by Katja Jancic was correct! She is not necessarily the reason for the fall from over $110 to the $91 level here. However, I would not see any reason for her to upgrade REX unless and until ethanol price and REX have based and started to move higher again. Maybe she'll get much closer to the next earnings announcement before commenting or upgrading REX at this point.
It may be that the ethanol stocks are being psychologically grouped into the overall energy sector, which has been down over the last month on the pullback in oil prices.
Did Wadegarret sell his PEIX and REX? I know he had a lot riding on them.
FYI: CL was in GPRE, REX and PIEX, but he said he took profits and holds none now.
REX drop is not purely technical. Fundamental facts still apply here.
Remember the CEO said on conf call that looking for $1.80/sh profit in current qtr was a safe bet, but many have been projecting up to $3 for current qtr and next qtr. Meanwhile ethanol had dropped about 30cents/gallon. Maybe the CEO's outlook is looking more reasonable now.
IMHO there are many moving parts in the ethanol stocks, so one cannot project the future even if you have crystal balls. Institutional traders know this, and they reduce weighting when uncertainty increases.
Thanks, great feedback on NXPI. May buy more if it drops just a bit and the whole stock market doesn't tank (way tooo toppppy). I'm starting to set tight stops on most stocks these days. I got slapped down when REX and PEIX suddenly reversed this week.
Regards,
'peeker
NXPI: I bought a starter position (100sh) myself, but it hasn't really caught on yet. I guess I bought on the anecdotal detail that their chip is in the new iPhones.
Unfortunately NXPI is already a $17+ billion market cap company, and it's impossible to get the scoop on incremental revenues that the iPhone business represents. Particularly, we don't have a clue how much they get per chip sold to AAPL, much less the margin. If we had these we could project revenue increases or even profit increase, but the truth is this is already a high MktCap and High P/E stock, so Alice will not get to the moon on this one.
10:31 PEIX
Ethanol Stocks -- Color on move lower today
As a follow-up to our 10:15 comment, ethanol/biofuel stocks are under pressure today: PEIX -10%, GPRE -6%, REX -5%, BIOF -2.4%, ANDE -2%. We are not seeing a direct catalyst. It may be on a Bloomberg.com report discussing how Brazil is taking action to stimulate its ethanol industry after falling demand. Perhaps the potential of more supply on the market is spooking investors.
Exports are a minor portion of ethanol market, aren't they? I don't think we can expect vast increases in ethanol exports to push the price back up much at all. In effect, it seems we are seeing an adjustment to the verty profitable spread; as corn prices have fallen, we should expect ethanol prices to come down as well.