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Re: kozuh post# 16633

Tuesday, 12/02/2014 11:57:08 PM

Tuesday, December 02, 2014 11:57:08 PM

Post# of 17741
Saudi oil production is set according to their own interests. US shale oil production has been booming and is market driven (cost/profit driven), that is, no (OPEC-like) government entity sets the amount being produced by US oil producers. The Saudis only accelerated the drop in oil prices by not dropping their own production. The shale oil boom (increase in world oil supply) helped take price down to about $80, and the Saudis just helped it drop another notch in a hurry by not dropping Saudi production to offset continuing US supply growth.

The smaller shale oil producers (as well as all oilsands producers) will probably be under pressure for a long time if oil prices remain low; banks will be tighter with their loans for drilling new wells, particularly they will limit how much the small guys can leverage (borrow) to drill more wells quickly. Capex will be reduced in 2015 and 2016 if prices remain low.

Political factors are at play here along with market forces, as cheaper gasoline prices and electric power prices help consumers feel like their standard of living has increased. Nations like Nigeria, Iran, Russia will suffer from the lower price of oil.

Last comment: If Iran comes to terms over their nuclear program, they will be allowed to produce production by about 2 million barrels a day, so you might say if peace breaks out, oil prices will continue lower with more oil in the world market.

OK, me shut up now.

Focus Focus Focus Focus !!!!

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