MMT.to/MAUXF: Where we are now:
Good news today gave it a nice bounce.
Due to Mart's agreement with their partners and the heavy capital outlay to drill the horizontals and eastern prospect, Mart will probably receive about 85+% of monthly revenues until they have cost recovery for paying UMU-3, -4, -12 drilling expenses, with recovery of drilling expenses for UMU 13 soon to follow. In other words, Mart will be receiving most of the proceeds on oil for the next 3-6 months at least, so Q4 could be a great cashflow quarter if they can just get started. 1Q15 cashflow and profitability should be outstanding. I think someone had computed annual cashflow some time back, but that was based on $110/boepd. Oops, we now see Brent down about $25 from that. Too bad we couldn't have started this process a year ago when oil was up and Pioneer Tax status was in effect.
Optimistic thought:
At any rate, Mart's stock price should begin to rebound nearterm, or so it seems to the optimistic me.
Pessimistic thought:
Any PP or London IPO to cover cost of acquiring 10-15% share of OML18 would cause some dilution and lessen the value of Umugini oilflow to Mart, or so it seems to my pessimistic self.
Obvious short-term risks:
1. Continued unimaginable delays in Umugini startup.
2. Further drop in Brent oil prices.
3. News that says dividend has been discontinued (anything is better than nothing).
4. Concerns over terms and price paid for OML18 purchase
Obvious medium-term risks:
1. NNPC retains operatorship of OML18, slowing activities designed to improve production.
2. Bad well at the eastern prospect UMU13.
Martians rock!
'peeker
Focus Focus Focus Focus !!!!
