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Nat Gas Sutherlin comments
other factor for natural gas is that the depletion rates on the natural gas wells, particularly the new Shale plays that the depletion rates are dramatically fast. 18 months is a typical average Shale. And the drilling part of it – I still have a connection to the oil and gas drilling business in one of the boards I am on and in that industry, it still is a rule of thumb that no one is starting drilling programs with natural gas prices below $7.
everything i've quoted above is either flat out wrong or very misleading. Probably why Tesco is only a $300M O&G service company (when most are multi-billion $ companies).
http://www.slb.com/media/services/solutions/reservoir/shale_gas.pdf
Most science doesnt work and wont ever make it any where near comercialization
just a bit over-the-top, don't you think?
GENZ
Genisi, thanks for your posts.
According to Biohealth Investor GENZ has restarted production of Fabrazyme and Cerezyme at the Allston plant. Will they be allowed to sell that production when they eventually satisfy the FDA?
thanks
Charlie
[OT} Dew goes on tour ;^)
http://www.allisports.com/tours/dew-tour
[OT] re Brazil's New King of Food
whelpy... I was certainly wrong on the Brazilian currency and inflation call. I still think their inflation will take off when oil recovers but the food angle might be A good idea.
charlie
OT grant systems & go to work welfare
One major impediment... is the grant system itself. It has become a sort of jobs program, a way to keep research laboratories going year after year with the understanding that the focus will be on small projects unlikely to take significant steps....
it should also be recognized that whether or not congress or a federal department intends this as a strategy, grant systems can become jobs programs within research institutions because many administrators, scientists, and support staff within the institutions guide the system to the result (i.e. there is a non-linear relationship). It's not just limited to healthcare research, e.g. look at the DOE national lab system and research related to nuclear waste or 'alternative' energy projects.
quiz: debt
[OT] HES (oil, brazil)
sorry for the delay in replying.
I'd say that the PR you referenced should not be used to infer that the Guarani well was 'dry'.
i believe that the Guarani well is only the 2nd well drilled in block BM-S-22. Exploration for reservoirs below salt and in such deep water is very difficult and so the uncertainties in interpretation of remote surveys are greater and consequently the liklihood that the first wells will not intersect hydrocarbons is greater. While a 'failure' at this stage might be expensive (this single project probably cost >> $100M), it's not necessarily terminal for prospective production in a particular block or even for the particular well. As the announcement states, they are drilling sidetracks from the original well and the additional costs of sidetracks is much lower than drilling new wells. Having said all that - I have no idea of whether the original well intersected hydrocarbons. I'd bet only the drilling, logging, and completion crews and the upper management of XOM, HES, and Petrobras know. The latter certainly won't spill the beans prematurely and the former tend to get fired and become un-employable when they spill the beans.
the latter comment gets to your 2nd question: Hackett almost certainly knew whether or not there were any problems with a project as large as Guarani. However, the definition of what constitutes a problem is subjective. If something had happened to the well making it un-enterable from the seafloor, then that would be a huge problem and as a CEO I might be a bit queezy. If the completion of the well to planned depth didn't initially intersect oil, I might be disappointed but drilling off this well is continuing so i wouldn't be looking to fire a bunch of project geophysicists.
regards,
Charlie
Dew,
As of late 2005 BM-S-22 was Hess's only Brazilian asset (they retained a 40% interest after selling the other 60% to xom & petrobras) but I think they have at least 2 others now (bm-es-20 bm-c-15). Look for info on wells Azulao & Guarani. They are continuing to explore the Santos & Esperito basin although they've cut their capex budget by ~35%. Petrobras recently announced a new shallow water oil discovery in a block that formerly belonged to Hess.
this may be useful
http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=76780
I dont know much about Hess or exploration efforts in Brazil and i have to be careful about what i say. The above is all public domain but hopefully it will be helpful.
regards,
Charlie
[OT] Natural-Gas Production Goes from Bust to Boom; Prices Plummet
apljack,
I don't know anything about the regulatory processes but it wouldn't surprise me if shale gas development in Arkansas (and some other states) is "relatively unregulated". That is undoubtedly part of the reason why there are so many 'mom & pop' service companies & operators in the shale gas business. The fouling of surface water is why the guy I mentioned earlier was paying $4/gallon for the water he was using in the fracturing process. But that was either PA or NY and the population density is sufficiently high in that area that regulations were already in place.
one of the things i do is try to find better (which includes environmentally more friendly) ways of developing these resources. CO2 is something that has been considered but it's not a panacea and it wouldn't stay in the ground in this case. Because most of it would be produced with the natural gas after stimulation it makes the natural gas unsaleable without separation and wellhead separation is currently impractical in most cases.
Before I forget again I'll take the opportunity to thank the folks on this board for sharing their knowledge. I don't get much opportunity to reciprocate.
cheers,
Charlie
OT] Re: Natural-Gas Production Goes from Bust to Boom
Granted that making synthetic oil from kerogen is uneconomic, but do you agree with the WSJ article I posted that mining natural gas from shale is a big deal?
yeah, gas shales are a huge deal. the wsj article was right on target. But just to be clear, oil shales and gas shales are very different beasts. Oil shales really aren't shales (they are mostly carbonate) and the organic matter in them is not 'mature' but when heated produces a high quality crude oil. Gas shales are composed of silicate clays with natural gas adsorbed on the mineral surfaces and in micropores. Fracture the shales to open the permeability and the gas desorbs. The process of fracturing and producing gas shales is primitive and cheap and the shales are extensive so there are a lot of 'mom and pop' companies involved. At the moment gas shale wells tend to produce at very high rates initially and then drop off very rapidly. That is a drawback that we non-mom and pop sorts are trying to fix and use as a means of getting back marketshare.
OT] Re: Natural-Gas Production Goes from Bust to Boom
re oil shales and water.
1. oil shale development is a long ways off even at $75/bbl. semi-wildass guess would be that we'd need sustained $120/bbl for oil companies to start doing more than treating it as a long term research project.
2. the water is to distribute heat into the oil shale. the organic material in the shale is mostly algal kerogen which if heated to about 300 C will quickly 'mature' into oil and gas, i.e. man could accomplish in months what would take nature millions of years. The useful characteristic of hot water or steam is that it has a higher heat capacity than many other cheap fluids. People are looking at other means of getting heat into the rock with a minimal number of holes, e.g. radio- or micro-wave heating, but those suck up a lot of power which is where alternative power sources such as wind come into play. That process would also generate water as the kerogen is decomposed and that would help distribute the heat and might also open up permeability but I have my doubts if that will be as effective or as cheap as injecting hot water.
Nature's cruel twist on the matter is that much of the rock within which the kerogen is interspersed has a high solubility in water (e.g. some of the mineral matter is baking soda). So if there was an abundant supply of water nearby and folks wouldnt get bent out of shape about environmental problems, then it might be possible to solution mine the oil shale. Unfortunately none of that is the case - at least at the moment.
[OT] Natural-Gas Production Goes from Bust to Boom; Prices Plummet
yeah, gas shales are not the most environmentally friendly gas sources. In order to produce the gas an enormous amount of water is pumped in to fracture the shale. Then the now contaminated water must be pumped out and disposed of. Unfortunately, as little as 20% of the water is recovered which causes other folks concern as to where it went. A drilling guy recently told me they were paying $4/gallon for water (that includes cost of treatment) for gas shale projects in western PA/NY. Those sorts of development costs put a basement on the NG price.
MNTA:
last line of the link: http://www.mffais.com/mnta.html
Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities Llc Institution -11.06 % 2008-11-10 None - - - % Sold All -11,998 -100.00 % $8,159
i am a bit confused though because i thought the folks dealing with Madoff's 'business' said he hadn't traded a stock in the last 10 yrs or so.
somewhat OT: obama grasps healthcare reform (sort of)
Second, revenues from a cap-and-trade system of carbon mitigation make their debut. The proceeds would be spent partly on making the tax credits in the fiscal stimulus, strongly tilted towards low-income households, permanent.
one of the annoying and implicitly scary things about this is that carbon mitigation is expensive (it's one of the things i work on professionally). If 'taxes' on carbon get spent on conventional welfare programs, then that money is not being spent on its raison d'être. When the problems of climate change do manifest themselves, then we can look forward to another round of taxes to pay to fix those problems. As it is, our congress is obviously planning on running carbon cap and trade like the FICA tax.
if this is too off topic feel free to delete
Cambridge yahoos
http://www.stopbiotechlooting.org/
http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1151859&srvc=business&position=4
One of the signs faces Biogen. The same billboard previously hosted "call Joe for oil" and is directly adjacent to the Schlumberger research lab.
OT: brazil
ACUS rejected 16-1
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSN1034712720081210
OT in every city of this country you can buy a fine place for 500K
while i aqree $1M is a lot of money for most folks, $500k will not buy a "fine" place in many cities in this country. $500k in Boston/Cambridge and San Francisco/bay area will get you a quite modest home by standards in most of the US.
semi-OT: greed, mad science
Recent reports have found that China's top scientific research body - the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
the western media portrays this body as if it was equivalent to the US Natl Academy of Science. Hardly true. There are post-docs at 3rd rate US universities who are 'members' of the CAS.
re: acus
the royalty rate in the 8-KA came out after the cc. somewhere in the 8-ka ACUS says that CEPH no longer had an interest in keeping the royalty rate confidential
IDIX - semi-OT
from 26Oct Boston Globe:
The City Council [Cambridge] has sided with Area 4 residents in a battle over noise. The Licensing Committee has found that Idenix Pharmaceuticals... is in violation of the city's noise ordinance between the hours of 6 and 7 PM on weekends. Noise from he buidling's rooftop equipment is the culprit. Noise from the the building's rooftop equipment is the culprit. Idenix appealed the ruling ... citing economic hardships. But the council - which found that Idenix's stock went up almost 200 percent over the last year - went on record ...to oppose... a variance....
pathetic. Somebody in Cambridge seems to have a grudge against IDIX since the city council keeps going after them with these pissant violations. I live and work nearby and IDIX is very low on the list of local noise makers (trains, sirens, and local traffic being much worse). IDIX is one of the few aesthetically pleasing industrial structures in the area.
Re: OT more political fun
I'm not even going to look it up, but I would be certain neither state [MA, CA] came close to the US on debt/GDB.
slice and dice as desired
http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/grossstatedebthousehold-20080124.pdf
2006 data - govt debt/household
US: $7767
AL: $3548
CA: $9005
MA: $26696
another interesting source of data
http://www.statemaster.com/cat/eco-economy&all=1
http://www.statemaster.com/graph/eco_tol_tax_bur_pergdp-total-tax-burden-per-gdp
I wouldn't say there is any clear cut distinction between state tax as % of GSP, political leanings, and spending on health and education or quality thereof.
OT more political fun
A couple decades ago, the Democrats deserved their bad rap of spending too much. But since then, it has been the Republicans who have spent too much - and then left horrible financial messes for the Democrats to clean up.
I'm guessing you don't live in Massachusetts or California.
couldn't resist.
words & their meanings
alertmeipp,
re: your comment
corpstrat - what a racist
corpstrat did not say anything about a race. His comment refers to a nationality. the condemnation on both parts is overly broad but I find yours more offensive.
OT quiz:
Steven Ross in today's WSJ
<No Wonder the Dollar Ails
November 27, 2007; Page A17>
who is Steven Ross?
MNTA enoxaparin denied
first i've heard about immunogenicity concern although i'm admittedly illiterate in the biotech field.
wondering what people's opinions are as to time line to address and whether premarket price level ~$6.70 reduces MNTA to 'opportunity' level for future products (if Yahoo is to be believed, cash value is about $4).
OT- wealth redistribution
Lumpy,
you are free to imagine that I implied something that isnt there.
You are also free to imagine that by raising taxes it will help some poor waiter/waitress. However, the market doesnt work that way. Nobody needs to go to a restaurant, consequently waiters don't command high wages. But in your imaginary world - why would the waiter strive to be successful if he knew he was going to be financially punished at the point of achieving that success?
The educational system in the US is a good example of how raising taxes and the percentage of non-merit based federal assistance packages has not improved the system. The growth rate in university fees has outstripped inflation and student population growth rates but does a good job of keeping up with increases in govt 'need-based' aid and tax breaks. So who was supposed to get the benefit - the professors and university administrators or the students and their families? And BTW - i paid most of my own way thru college on 9% interest loans and zero tax breaks on those loans. Everyone in my family has had to bust their asses to get ahead and stay there. What we really hate is the changing of the rules routine and folks who think that success should be punished rather than rewarded.
legislators have a poor record in social engineering.
cso
OT-taxes
We've all worked hard, and usually the lowest paid worked far harder than most (ever picked lettuce?).
Lettuce - no. Corn, berries, melons... yes. Straight alongside people who were not US citizens. Please present any quantitative evidence that the lowest paid work "harder than most". Aside from that: why is it relevant to work "harder"? Why isn't working "smarter" something to be rewarded?
My family owns a farm in an area where the unemployment rate is now about 6% and in the past 10 yrs has been in double digits - but good luck trying to find a US citizen to work. My brother even tried carting people 60 miles both ways from a homeless shelter but they had a tendency to squawk about "slavery" after working for an hour. Somehow these poor "downtrodden" folks you seem to be inclined to redistribute wealth to are perfectly content to chain smoke, drink heavily, buy lottery tickets, and do crack. Now I live in Cambridge MA and I see the same sort of people sitting around Central and Harvard square all day (I am "projecting" since I do have a job but I do get to those places at fairly random intervals) yet somehow folks that barely speak English seem to find jobs and survive here.
I tried to ignore this topic but you are flat out wrong. Taking money away from the successful just because they are is just a disgusting extreme form of envy. It has nothing to do with "basic civics" - rather the converse. You also have a deranged version of history if you think this country's growth and wealth had anything to do with 50% tax rates. You might want to investigate the date when federal income taxes were instituted.
cso
OT: more burning water
Preciouslife,
Rustum Roy is a legitimate scientist (emeritus prof at Penn State in Geochemistry, Solid State Chemistry, Materials Science). He's also a member of the National Academy of Engineering. He's no schmoe but I think he's pushing a little hard if those quotes are accurate. I'm very confident that he's aware of Ulrich Franck's work on supercritical water oxidation <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_water_oxidation> > (this is probably the only thing I've seen on this board that I actually know something about). The wikipedia link refs Franck's work but the link to the video didnt work for me. Franck was very fond of showing his "burning water" videos but he didnt have youtube. The supercritical water oxidation idea was adopted as a means of burning organic constituents in nuclear waste thereby reducing the volume and consequently the transport and storage costs. Using radiofrequencies to decompose water and burn organics in such systems MAY be a better approach but it will have problems if any metals are in the system. In the nuclear waste treatment application practicality and safety concerns trump energy efficiency. The idea of using radiofrequencies to generate hydrogen for vehicle fuels or as an energy storage medium (e.g. windmills power radiofreq generator --> H2) is somewhere between being naive and dishonest (depending on the knowledge level of the person doing the proposing). Not trying to be mean, just descriptive.
cheers,
Charlie
OT Re: burning water
Preciouslife1,
If those quotes from Roy are accurate, I'm surprised because I would've expected less showmanship and more substance. I also suspect that any proposal by Roy to DOE will be an extension of Ulrich Franck's supercritical water oxidation work rather than as a means of generating hydrogen for fuel. The radio frequency generator adds an efficiency loss (direct electrolysis would be more efficient); however, it's conceivable that the process might have useful applications in areas such as waste treatment.
Charlie
MYOG vs ENCY
Dew,
if you read the Motley Fool you might want to take a look at Brian La's (aka TMFBreakerBrian) posts in:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23923622&sort=whole#23929731
also: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23896740
if you dont and you're interested and it's not some ethical or copyright violation I'll copy and post here.
regards,
Charlie
re: Fund/beneficial ownership
Bob,
you might take a look at www.secinfo.com
Charlie
Chelation/EDTA: re clearing of arterial deposits
Thomas,
I would be surprised if this did not have deleterious effects, e.g. also removing useful calcium and magnesium from elsewhere in the body. I know that in cases of radiogenic heavy metal poisoning chelates are used to remove the metals; however, I believe that it is considered as a somewhat drastic measure. If the chelate could be localized to the arterial deposit it might work if the deposits are calcium salts. I'm ignorant of the deposit compositions & other things physiologic but I do know some things about EDTA.
regards,
Charlie
ENCY/MYOG
RockRat,
Seems I mixed up congenital heart disease (CHD) with connective tissue disease (CTD). The ARIES trial protocol clearly lists CTD & Motte 2005 Pharm & Therapeutics in press lists 39% APAH-CTD in the ambrisentan pilot and cites Galie' 2005 JACC 46, 529. Galie' lists collagen vascular disease which I'm assuming includes connective tissue disease.
Just to fill it out, I have several sources for the ~20% CT disease in the thelin trials: Badesch Oct2005 CHEST abstract pg160S states "STRIDE-1 (n=178) and STRIDE-2 (n=246) included PAH pts with WHO class II, III, and IV: idiopathic PAH (56%) or associated with connective tissue diease (28%) or congenital heart defects (16%)." Also Galie' 2004 Cardiovascular Resrch 61, 227; and Girgis Nov2005 CHEST abstract 218S. Going from memory - of the 500+ patients in all of the STRIDE trials 110 had CT disease.
The ARIES protocol clearly excludes CHD while the STRIDE trials clearly include it. Not an auspicious first post.
Charlie
ENCY/MYOG
drbio45,
I've been looking into this a bit & I'm leaning toward your scepticism of the MYOG announcement. Why are the 6MWD numbers for the ARIES1 test so much better than for the phase II study? Secondly, the earlier results did not show a dose response whereas The ARIES1 trial shows a huge dose response. (both of which you alluded to)
MYOG's December announcement also doesnt indicate what % were class II vs class III patients. Their numbers for placebo-corrected 6 MWD would seem quite impressive if they included a large % of class II patients since the usual case seems to be that healthier patients show a lower relative improvement. So why didnt they present the specfics of their population? In addition, their earlier, smaller patient populations did contain several patients in the treatment arms that showed increases in serum aminotransferases greater than three times the upper limit of normal range. Makes one wonder.
The thelin trial populations tended to contain about 20% with connective tissue (CT) disease & as you pointed out these patients dont tend to respond well to treatment. The CT patients would drag thelin's absolute 6MWD numbers down but presumably the placebo population would contain a similar population so the relative numbers shouldnt suffer. I dont think that elimination of CT patients from the MYOG trials would enhance ambrisentan's placebo corrected numbers but they are comparing apples & oranges as far as patient populations are concerned. MYOG also didnt include patients with congenital heart disease whereas the Thelin trials did. Portrayal of superiority in such cases makes me sceptical.
I dont doubt that ambrisentan is an effective drug. I just have my doubts as to the robustness of the information that MYOG has recently released & that it is as effective as the market seems to think. Looks to me like ambrisentan would split market with Thelin for class II & would share market with Tracleer & Thelin for class III while Thelin & Tracleer have class IV.
Any idea how the NYHA and WHO classifications compare?
Also kind of curious as to where you got the 20:1 selectivity number for ambrisentan. Not doubting it's validity since I've seen numbers ranging from 77:1 (Motte 2005 Pharmacology & Therapeutics in press) to 260:1 (Teerlink 2004 Business Briefing:US Cardiology) so there's obviously some uncertainty. In anycase, intermediate in selectivity between Thelin (6500:1) & Tracleer (which I think is close to 20:1 but I might have that reversed). If ambrisentan does turn out to be more effective than Thelin it might indicate an optimal level for blocking the ETA receptor relative to the ETB receptor.
Charlie
BTW I'm not an MD, biologist, or statistician of any variety so please treat any errors kindly but I do appreciate commentary.