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Re: DewDiligence post# 79016

Friday, 06/05/2009 11:06:09 AM

Friday, June 05, 2009 11:06:09 AM

Post# of 252255
[OT] HES (oil, brazil)

sorry for the delay in replying.

I'd say that the PR you referenced should not be used to infer that the Guarani well was 'dry'.

i believe that the Guarani well is only the 2nd well drilled in block BM-S-22. Exploration for reservoirs below salt and in such deep water is very difficult and so the uncertainties in interpretation of remote surveys are greater and consequently the liklihood that the first wells will not intersect hydrocarbons is greater. While a 'failure' at this stage might be expensive (this single project probably cost >> $100M), it's not necessarily terminal for prospective production in a particular block or even for the particular well. As the announcement states, they are drilling sidetracks from the original well and the additional costs of sidetracks is much lower than drilling new wells. Having said all that - I have no idea of whether the original well intersected hydrocarbons. I'd bet only the drilling, logging, and completion crews and the upper management of XOM, HES, and Petrobras know. The latter certainly won't spill the beans prematurely and the former tend to get fired and become un-employable when they spill the beans.

the latter comment gets to your 2nd question: Hackett almost certainly knew whether or not there were any problems with a project as large as Guarani. However, the definition of what constitutes a problem is subjective. If something had happened to the well making it un-enterable from the seafloor, then that would be a huge problem and as a CEO I might be a bit queezy. If the completion of the well to planned depth didn't initially intersect oil, I might be disappointed but drilling off this well is continuing so i wouldn't be looking to fire a bunch of project geophysicists.
regards,
Charlie

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