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If you like $3m for 2012, how would you like $8m to $10m for 2013?
Those numbers are based on info-gathering and analysis by many long-timers on this board.
New 52 week high has been achieved!
as they become material in nature
The Company expects to return-to "Current" filer status at
some time in 2013. There is no material circumstance
preventing the Company from doing so.
This was right in line with projections, if you ask me, based on all the analysis people here did with order numbers and traffic. We predicted "almost double" Q3, and that's exactly where revenues were.
I'm still happy to see it!
Highest dollar volume day since last April.
Tied for highest close in last 54 weeks.
Within .0001 of the 52 week high (and got a new 50 week high).
And we might only have to wait 2 months for that party, since those results should be released more quickly after end-of-qtr, as they're only quarterly results, and not the more lengthy annual results.
April showers bring May flowers.
Oh, yes, of course.
Year-over-year growth is the right way to look at growth, and we should have year-over-year revenue growth for every quarter for many years to come, if all is done right. In fact, we've probably already had YOY growth for 9 or 10 straight quarters.
However, I worry that some people will forget the seasonal nature of the business and panic when Q2 comes in slightly lower than Q1. I think that's part of why the stock price tanked last summer when it shouldn't have. Of course, it allowed some of us to add many millions of shares in the .003's, so I'm not complaining!
All that said, for a fast growing company, YOY growth rates can be a bit "slow" in terms of getting feedback on whether growth is still strong or relatively weak. For more immediate feedback, it can help to compare quarter-over-quarter changes to previous year's quarter-to-quarter changes, and to the expected seasonal fluctuations for the industry. In other words, if revenues in Q2 don't drop as far from Q1 as seasonality expects it to, then we're actually still growing.
if we have the order number as of Jan 1st...ie # of orders for the year so far...does anybody have this info?
WOL traffic rank has been surging on Alexa in the last 10 days, perhaps due to the Coco post? The surge coincides exactly with that post.
Its 3 month rank was at an all-time best of 206k then, and has since surged to an even better 194k.
Its 1 month rank was at 229k at the time of the post, and has since surged to 193k matching it's best from Xmas season in December. Its 1-month reach has surged from .00046% to .00056%, another all time high for it, in the last 9 days; a remarkable improvement.
OnlyLeggings has held steady in the same time, with slight improvement, but nothing close to the WOL surge.
I could not agree with you more. I know how it feels to want to do it all myself, but have realized that there are things that others just do better. When you want to take things to the next level, you need more expertise than ANY one person can have. I hope he's interviewing for that expertise now.
Today's DOLLAR volume of around $30,000 was the highest dollar volume since last April 30th. Some higher volume days have happened since, most notably Oct 31st, but the price was so low that the dollar volume was a little less.
management might be trying to get it done....maybe they can't. Just a thought
Trailing 12 months Revenue per share for:
end Q2, Jul 1, 2011-Jun 30, 2012: .0031 (reported)
end Q3, Oct 1, 2011-Sep 30, 2012: .0037 (reported)
end Q4, Jan 1, 2012-Dec 31, 2012: .0046 (my estimate, based on order #s reported by others)
TODAY, Feb 15 2012-Feb 14, 2013: .0054 (my estimate, based on order #s reported by others)
By end of Q1, I think TTM Rev/Share should be over .0060
By end of 2013, I think TTM Rev/Share should be over .0100 (by a little or a lot, depending on how things go). All just my opinion!
So, P/S multiple has been in the doldrums around 1.0 for many months now, and essentially still is, even with the recent rise, assuming you believe that $/order number is holding steady.
Only if you think Pirce/Sales ratio should be 0.6.
... and somebody already posted a link to the WOL website in the comments section.
Let's see if we get a traffic boost in the coming days.
traditionally Q1 and Q4 are the best quarters; Q2 & Q3 tend to be a bit lower
Great to get that order number, Sharkey! Thanks!
I got a different number for end Q3, based on this post:
http://investorshub.us.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80149160
It had the order number at
3493 at 76 hours before Sept ended, and
3649 just 16 hours after Sept ended.
I'm not sure if I need to make a time zone adjustment for that, or adjustment for different rates at different times of day, but doing a straight interpolation gives 3620 for the order number at end of Q3.
That would give 6266 for the orders since then, in the 91 day Q4, and 44.4 (of 90) days so far in Q1. If rates of orders were steady for Q4 and so far Q1, that would give 4211 orders in Q4. However, Q1 traffic rates are about 25% better for WOL than Q4 average, and OL seems to have had an 80% boost in order rate in Q1 over Q4 (w/ smaller traffic boost). Let's split the difference and assume a 50% boost in order rate in Q1 for WOL. Some algebra leads to:
Q4: 39.76/day, 3618 total orders
Q1: 59.64/day, 2648 so far.
So, it seems we've gone from about 20 a day (Q3) to 40 a day (Q4) to 60 a day (Q1).
Q4 revenue would almost double Q3's WOL revenue, to almost 150k. Add 750k to 850k from OL and 200K from stores for 1.1 to 1.2 million for Q4 (after returns) revenues, a little lower than I'd previously thought.
Assuming order number rates hold up, and stores increase slightly, Q1 projects to 1.8 to 2.0 million in revenue. 2013 projects to around 8 million, unless lots of new revenue drivers (like new stores/children's leggings) kick in to make it go higher.
The 52 week high of .0068 was one year ago today (technically, more than 52 weeks!).
Tomorrow, that will be too old, so the 52 week high will show up as .0065, which is from March 7th last year.
When do you all think we'll get above that, for a new 52 week high?
Do you think that'll give it a boost, by making it show up on stock screens?
Very nice chart, Cashier. Thanks for putting it together.
I'm also curious to see how the retail stores are doing, especially, whether they're ramping up in sales proportionally to online sales.
In Q3, Melrose did $87,444 after returns, and Robertson did $52.751 after returns.
If they've ramped up proportionally to online sales, they'll be close to $300k combined in Q1, but I doubt they're fully keeping up with the online increases, which is why I guessed the ultra-conservative $200k. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Fill, thanks for all the great order number info.
It sure seems that the order number rates are consistent, starting at 490/day early in the quarter and now ramping up to around 550/day recently, based on your posts.
I want to caution everyone not to get too excited when applying multiples of $40 to $50 per order number. Average completed order size is probably indeed in that range, but not all order numbers indicate completed orders. An order number is allocated before the order is complete. So, average per order number has historically been more like $35.
I have Q3 (after returns & refunds) revenue-per-order-number at $41.80 for World of Leggings and $30.28 for OnlyLeggings. Of course, average size of order might go up during the busy season of Q4 and Q1.
Even assuming only $30 per order number, Q1 is still projecting at about $1.4 million for OL, and assuming 300k for WOL and 200k combined for the stores, that's around $1.9 mill for Q1. Still impressive. Projecting based on Alexa traffic numbers gives lower projections.
The last posted order number that I remember for WOL was as of 07/01/12
UBSS is an imbecile moron that just undercut their own ask
These are awesome ideas, Nabbbss and Ferrari !!
Why didn't we think of this before? Great thinking, guys!
Seriously, once they get the distribution infrastructure in place, and the capital for a 3rd store, they should definitely open on college campusses. Start with some major university in LA, then spread like wildfire across the country.
Now you've got me more excited about the possibilities of brick-and-mortar stores.
Hope these ideas get through to DA and his team.
we need to be a little more conservative...maybe $40/order
UBSS was skipped over and the .0041 was hit... I don't understand why this happens on stocks when there is obviously something better for the buyer to buy.
Can you make a chart bro?
Agreed about Feb and March.
Retail and clothes and leggings all tend to go down slightly in Q1 and down steeply in Q2 and Q3. So in 2012 when Bravada rose slightly in Q1, and dropped only slightly in Q2 and Q3, it was a sign of significant growth.
So for Bravada, any growth in Q1 is significant growth, and staying anywhere close to "flat" in Q2 and Q3 would be an incredibly positive sign of growth.
The Bravada pattern of quarterly results should be "flat, flat, flat, BOOM!".
I think we're looking at the same chart and seeing different things.
Change the time frame to 3 months for the OL traffic rank chart.
You'll see 4 spikes between Thanksgiving and New Year's, and another 4 spikes since then, but the Christmas season spikes were taller and wider. January's were weaker.
There was also a small spike in October.
Your memory of 155k-200k, if you're talking about OL ranking last quarter, is not what I see. The rankings are for the previous 3 months, so the real ranking for the quarter is where you see it on Jan 1st, which was 96.4k. In fact, the 3 month rank was already below 155k by Halloween, and dropped steadily from there.
I recorded the 1-month ranks, too. For October, the rank was 116k. For November, 103k, and for December, an impressive 81k. January was 94k, so it was between November and December, and about the same as Q4 overall.
Be careful not to get caught up in wishful thinking. The human mind can play tricks and show you what you want to see, instead of what's really there. Investing is a good way to discover that.
Your graphic is a good one for everyone to look at, especially as it shows how last year's spikes were short-lived compared to this year's, which seem to be sustained.
However, you'll notice that the December spikes were higher and more frequent/longer than the spikes since then..
I reached my conclusion not by looking at the chart, but instead by the numbers I've recorded.
WOL 3-month ranks at end of December 31st were:
242k (rank), .00041% (reach), and .000061% (pageviews)
Yesterday's 1-month totals for the same were:
218k (rank), .00049% (reach), and .000057% (pageviews)
So, Q1 so far is slightly ahead of Q4's pace on rank & reach, & slightly behind on pageviews.
For OL, we have:
3-month Q4: 96.4k, .00105%, .000212%
1-month Q1: 93.2k, .00121%, .000168%
Again, a little better on rank & reach, and a little worse on pageviews.
Note that all these measures are rates, not cumulative totals, so you can compare different lengths of time (3 mos. vs 1 mo.) directly.
I would like to hear more on how the order numbers are going. The post of a couple weeks ago showing a huge jump in the order number for one of the sites was a bit hard to believe.
I think your estimate is a bit high. I think that if the traffic maintains the levels we are seeing, we will see about 10%-20% increase over Q4 2012. I'm assuming Q4 2012 will be 1.1m gross.
Well, to be clear, there was indeed a traffic spike for OL a couple days ago, but it came after a dip, and it only brought things back up to December's levels. Now it's settling again.
Overall, Alexa's ratings of Q1 traffic so far are slightly ahead of the Q4 rates, but behind December's peak. If sustained, Q1 will come out about the same as Q4, maybe slightly ahead. Either way is great, in my mind.
Looks like the big chunks were bought at .0039 and then .0040.
All the action above .0040 was small change.
Lots of support at .0037.
What's nicer is the uptrend of the last 7 or 8 days.
Beezer, thanks for the thoughtful reply. I was busy and just got to reading it.
I hope you're right about the 4 to 8 times annual revenue.
As of now, if my Q4 projections are correct, they'll have at least .0017 revenue per share for the quarter, which will bring them to about .0045 for the year.
Even ho-hum low-growth retail companies get price/sales of 1.0 or slightly lower, and BRAV is currently at 1.0 and soon to be 0.8 once Q4 results are announced, so once people are convinced it's a true growth stock, it should go up a lot.
Current indications are that Q1 is about the same as Q4, which would push them over .0052 annual rev/sh at end of March. A 4 to 8 times multiple of that would put them at 2 to 4 cents per share. We'd all be dancing. Then BRAV could reissue just a small fraction of what they bought back to raise money to open new stores, which would prove your point right about buying back as much as possible.
The question is, can they keep strong growth going without opening new stores? If all the cash goes to buyback, there's no new stores.
Perhaps the plan, then, is to put all extra cash into buyback in the short-term, then later in 2013, if PPS is up a bit, to use extra cash to open a new store or two (and get current, fix financials, etc.), so that people are more convinced of the growth, so PPS goes way up, and then they can finance the next wave of stores with relatively tiny amounts of dilution, then finally reach a point where profits alone give them all the cash they need for fast expansion.
I don't get how everyone assumes the buyback will happen at .003.
100m is ok that could work.. It's only 75k a quarter.
And I believe these are all going to happen in 2013.
what's the correlation between web visits and sales?
And, aren't there ways to spoof the traffic estimates?
I believe someone posted recently that they're not required to retire the bought back shares. They could just hold them in treasury.
So, do you think, perhaps, they'll buy back gradually, and hold the shares until a bunch have been bought back, THEN retire them in big batches, say, once a month?
How are they going to buy back with zero volume on the first fully active day of trading in 2013?
I assume you wouldn't be complaining if the stock ran against promotion today before any buyback occured.