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bulldzr -- was in a hurricane in Boston -- eye wall slid by just east, headed NNE, so several hours of generally northerly (NE to N to NW) winds gusting into hurricane range -- with heavy rain from early on that quickly saturated the ground (which was already plenty moist from recent precip) -- there was a big old tree behind my place, I think it was an oak, at least had a similar structure/look -- going into the stretch of the strongest gusts, started to tilt just a wee bit, then just a wee bit more, and so on for about an hour, by which point it had developed a pretty severe list -- then, finally, still very slowly, almost gently, settled the rest of the way over as the rest of the whole big old rootball came rollng up out of the ground
don't mean to suggest you're at risk of any winds that strong -- though you'll have a stubborn easterly wind that could get to around maybe 35 (more or less) sustained with aome gusts as high as maybe 50 or so (at least that's the worst case barring a highly not expected explosive redevelopment back to a hurricane while the center of circulation remains out over the water for the next day or so) (. . .) -- per the progs, still 2 days till it finally really begins to clear your area -- with a risk of some additional inundating/multi-inch per hour rainfalls if/as new heavy banding/a new heavy precip core develops in close to/around the center of circulation as it is and remains back out over the water -- as appears to be occurring -- (linked in) https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134119698 and preceding and following, http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134112201 and preceding and following
Dale C -- that was the first I'd posted or commented about that incident
mr40 -- "The United States is being over run by sick crazies!" -- most cogent and accurate thing you've said here about your side
you goatblowers don't have a monopoly on idiots -- close, but not complete
mr40 -- as I said (eom)
Man who claimed stranger stabbed him for his neo-Nazi haircut [a black male stranger, of course] busted for making up story
Authorities arrested Joshua Witt after learning he made up the incident.
[ http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/28/denver-area-arrest-neo-nazi-stabbing/ (with embedded video, and comments)]
August 28, 2017
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/man-stabbed-neo-nazi-cut-arrested-lying-article-1.3449452
Man Who Was Allegedly Stabbed For His Neo-Nazi Haircut Actually Stabbed Himself
Joshua Witt sporting the haircut that he falsely alleged was the reason that he was stabbed (left) Facebook post that went viral claiming Joshua Witt had been stabbed (right)
8/28/17
https://gizmodo.com/man-who-was-allegedly-stabbed-for-his-neo-nazi-haircut-1798502154
Man Who Claimed He Was Stabbed After Being Mistaken For A Neo-Nazi Was Lying
He said a stranger came up to him and said "You one of them neo-Nazis?" before stabbing him.
August 20, 2017 Updated August 20, 2017
Update 8/28/17: This post has been updated with new information from the Sheridan Police Department that Witt admitted to inventing his story.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/nidhiprakash/this-man-says-he-was-mistaken-for-a-neo-nazi-and-stabbed [with comments]
mr40 -- nah, you're not racist -- just can't help yourself, can ya -- . . .
mr40 -- as if -- on multiple levels (eom)
fuagf -- but then we get these fuckwits -- would really like to know just who they were, from just what backgrounds/histories, and with what backings/supports. they came:
Masked Anarchists Attack Pro-Trump Demonstrators in Berkeley
Aug. 27, 2017
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/08/27/masked_anarchists_disrupt_peaceful_berkeley_protest_attack_pro_trump_demonstrators.html [with embedded video, and comments]
antifa's one thing -- raging 'anarchist' buttheads are another -- Alex Jones's/neo-Nazis'/white supremacists'/alt-right's/Trump's collective wet dream
(linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133897793 and preceding and following
hookrider -- just to update, it now seems quite clear that that movement to the west scenario is off the table
hope you and yours are doing OK -- take care
Flash Flood Emergency Continuing/Worsening in/around Houston
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHGX/1708270955.wgus54.html953
WGUS54 KHGX 270955
FFWHGX
TXC015-039-089-157-167-185-201-321-339-473-477-481-271545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0073.170827T0955Z-170827T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT SUNDAY.
* AT 439 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF 14 TO 28 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE EMERGENCY AREA. ELSEWHERE 8 TO 14 INCHES HAS
WITH INTENSE STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 4 TO 6 INCHES PER
HOUR. DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ONGOING. MANY CREEKS
RIVERS AND BAYOUS HAVE FLOODED AND HAVE SURPASSED PREVIOUS FLOOD
RECORD LEVELS.
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FROM THE BAY CITY AREA TO WHARTON TO
WALLER ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO AREA TO STAFFORD TO FRIENDSWOOD TO
LEAGUE CITY AND SANTA FE. TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA IS SEVERELY HAMPERED
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. OVER 1000 HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN PERFORMED
AND IN SOME PLACES EMERGENCY CREWS CANNOT REACH THE WORST HIT AREAS.
5 FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SOME PEOPLE ARE USING ATTICS AND
THE SECOND FLOOR TO ESCAPE THE RISING FLOOD WATERS.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA, PEARLAND, LEAGUE CITY, SUGAR LAND, NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN,
MISSOURI CITY, GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END, GALVESTON CAUSEWAY, TEXAS
CITY, MATAGORDA, FRIENDSWOOD, LA PORTE, DEER PARK, ROSENBERG,
ALVIN, NORTHWESTERN ANGLETON, DICKINSON, STAFFORD, BAY CITY AND
SOUTH HOUSTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.
Flash Flood Emergency in Houston
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHGX/1708270227.wgus54.html
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...
7:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 26
Location: 29.2°N 97.4°W
Moving: ENE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Public Advisory #26A
700 PM CDT Aug 26, 2017
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/262339.shtml
Forecast Discussion #26
400 PM CDT Aug 26, 2017
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/262037.shtml
current radar images/loops (additional localized radar-estimated storm total precipitation amounts over 15" showing), with links, earlier this string at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134119698
current forecast track map and satellite images/loops included, with links, earlier this string at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134112201
mr40 -- a clemency isn't a pardon, sweet cheeks
mr40 -- only $23 million?
[(linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131541157 and preceding and following) (pacifier)]
mr40 -- yes, they did, two of them actually -- where the 'Unite the Right' neo-Nazi white supremacists did not have a permit for their torch-wielding march that Friday evening before
and, that bottom image (with no source link provided) isn't from Charlottesville (at least doesn't even vaguely resemble anything I've seen from that day's events, where I have been exhaustively through the videos, etc. from that day, including those from the 'Unite the Right' and other alt-right, umm, sources) -- that post of yours left only to allow me to make this reply on the point above
mr40 -- exactly wrong, and precisely illustrative of your thoroughgoing ludicrously and utterly fascistically self-selective incoherence/inconsistency/hypocrisy -- i.e., pure rank bullshit -- others have every bit as much right to counterprotest as they do to protest
you folks aren't the only ones who get to assemble and speak -- and if your demonstrations happen to be massively overmatched by counterdemonstrations, well then that's the way the cookie crumbles, fair and square
(not to mention that you'd said it was Fields, one of the neo-Nazi white supremacists, who had no right to even be there -- . . .)
mr40 -- "[Fields} didn't have any right to even be at that demonstration."
oh really? -- how do you figure that?
hookrider -- in case you haven't seen yet -- a new scenario, a second scenario to the currently first scenario of the center of Harvey's circulation very slowly drifting NNE into east-central Texas later this coming week and into next weekend, of the center of Harvey's circulation very slowly drifting to the west passing just a bit south of Killeen during the same period, has emerged in the forecast models
mr40 -- yes, that was a stinky pardon -- this is a different case, more than just arguably far worse -- e.g. (linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134152466 (and any future following) (thx Peg)
mr40 -- as affirmed by the Supreme Court when it refused his appeal, Arpaio had no right to a jury trial
BullNBear52 -- as is typical of the breed, nothing if not brazenly, sublimely shameless
mr40 -- well be a stud, go up there, and pull it down
or do a Trump-style deal, buy it with borrowed laundered money and declare it bankrupt, and scrap it
BullNBear52 -- has had some help being left to move to other batshit bullshit -- and continues to receive help in avoiding in particular repetitive and/or old batshit bullshit we've seen/been through previously -- . . .
BullNBear52 -- he'd already been convicted, of course -- not the sort of thing I did in my career -- would be sweet to see him sued into oblivion -- he deserves no less
mr40 -- located on private property, owned and for sale by an American collector -- who acquired it after it was taken down from its original location in Czechoslovakia following the Velvet Revolution of 1989
Statue of Lenin, Seattle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statue_of_Lenin,_Seattle
Space Station Cameras Peer down on Major Hurricane Harvey
DesertDrifter -- an opportunity Trump took to dump last evening his pardoning Sheriff Joe Arpaio, formalizing his imperious tweeting twit anti-transgender in the military decree, and putsching Sebastian Gorka (whose wife [ https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133963633 ] remains on staff)
HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...
10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 26
Location: 28.9°N 97.3°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/261451.shtml000
WTNT34 KNHC 261451
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.
The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas
Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/261452.shtml000
WTNT44 KNHC 261452
TCDAT4
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
Harvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under
way. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt,
and that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is
over land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC
forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However,
if a portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of
Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here.
The hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt.
Harvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global
models keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based
on this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5
days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only
agreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not
going anywhere fast.
This slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the
potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least
through the middle of next week.
Please note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been
discontinued due to the degradation of Harvey's center on radar.
Key Messages:
1. While Harvey's winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening
hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.
2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday.
Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into
flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall
totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede
due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore
flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta
hookrider -- oh, . . .
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134153536
INTENSE eye wall of category 4 Hurricane Harvey from Rockport, TX
(with comments)] chasing Hurricane Harvey. This was downloaded from Periscope [ https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1zqKVRbYXWWKB , followed by from in the eye https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1ynJOVWlBBlGR ] for archival purposes. No copyright infringement is intended.Just got confirmation from @TwisterChasers that @Jeff_Piotrowski is safe this morning...no word on rather or not #blueshed made it though!
— Dustin Wilcox (@severechase) August 26, 2017
HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY OVER TEXAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 26
Location: 28.7°N 97.2°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/261152.shtml000
WTNT34 KNHC 261152
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
...HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY OVER TEXAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 97.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 97.2 West.
Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
Harvey is expected to slow down through the day and meander over
southeastern Texas through the middle of next week.
Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds
are confined to a small area near the eye of the hurricane.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Harvey is likely to become a
tropical storm later today.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...6 to 12 ft
Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...3 to 6 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland from the coast
within Harvey's eyewall, and hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are still possible near the middle Texas coast for the next
several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of
the coast through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
bagwa-john -- I believe that was rooster's way of saying 'damn, that doesn't look good' (he lives in New Orleans)
6 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...HARVEY BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
6:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25
Location: 27.7°N 96.7°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale [note the pressures in mb associated with each category]
https://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/scales/saffir.html
current forecast track map and satellite images/loops included, with links, earlier this string at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134112201
current radar images/loops, with links, earlier this string at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134119698
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
BullNBear52 -- good move -- gonna be a real mess there if the forecast rainfall and flooding verify even if the power generally stays on -- and even worse if extended power outages come into play
MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...
4:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25
Location: 27.5°N 96.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/252054.shtml000
WTNT34 KNHC 252054
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
...MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 96.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Mansfield, Texas.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Port
Mansfield, Texas.
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
north of Boca de Catan.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by aircraft reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Harvey is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is
expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas
coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander
near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph
(205 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible before Harvey makes landfall overnight.
Weakening is then expected over the weekend while the center moves
inland over Texas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A station at Aransas Pass, Texas, recently
reported a sustained wind 56 mph and a gust to 71 mph.
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance data
is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas, and hurricane
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to
persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/252055.shtml000
WTNT44 KNHC 252055
TCDAT4
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey's winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey's maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey's central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.
Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.
Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey's slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 27.5N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0465.htmlSEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 200
PM until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A couple tornadoes will be possible through tonight within
the outer bands of Hurricane Harvey.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
either side of a line from 70 miles southeast of Lake Charles LA to
30 miles southwest of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 09030.
...Grams
WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AND WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...
1:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25
Location: 27.1°N 96.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251755.shtml000
WTNT34 KNHC 251755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AND WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near
latitude 27.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is
expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas
coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander
near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A wind gust of 56 mph was recently reported at the
Corpus Christi Naval Air Station. In addition, a wind gust of 53
mph was reported at Port Aransas, and a gust to 51 mph was measured
at the Bob Hall Pier near Corpus Christi. A sustained wind of 56
mph and a gust to 69 mph were measured by NOAA buoy 42020.
The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA plane
is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are now occurring in portions of the
hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Hurricane conditions
are likely to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
bulldzr -- y/w -- do stay safe, old friend
BullNBear52 -- y/w -- hopefully helpful to those affected
mr40 -- you pathetic little . . . -- true colors, shining through
John McCain POW recordings revive historic, painful episode
Aug. 13, 2016 Updated Aug. 13, 2016
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/azdc/2016/08/13/john-mccain-pow-recordings-revive-historic-painful-episode/88547416/ [with embedded video, and comments]
as v. Trump's great service -- (linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=124272067 and preceding and following
as for TruNews/Rick Wiles -- (linked in):
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85979380 and preceding and following
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Christo-fascist/Christo-fascism
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http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131488509 and preceding (and any future following);
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http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131914423 and preceding (and any future following);
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=132078524 and preceding and following
PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...
7:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 25
Location: 26.3°N 95.8°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/251145.shtml000
WTNT34 KNHC 251145
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION THIS MORNING...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed
is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is expected to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane was 950
mb (28.05 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area later today and tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist
into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast today.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg