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Something we all need to realize is many companies that sold for a dollar or more back in the late 1990's are no longer in existance. I didn't follow CTKH back then, but it was clearly a penny stock that nearly hit a dollar back then. Since then it had a 150 to 1 reverse split meaning that somewhere there are people who paid nearly $150 for a share that today is worth less then a quarter cent.
To be completely honest, even with the rosiest of predictions for the stock, these investors will never break even on those shares. They might still be investors in the company, but if they are, the way they'll make money is by lowering their average cost per share to a reasonable number. Unless they invested millions back then, a few thousand today should bring their average price per share to under .003 cents. That's an average price per share that could become profitable soon.
I think we all need to establish our own expectations of what we believe CTKH could do in the next year, five years, etc. Personally, I believe if our process for creating high quality media is truly superior to what competitors are able to do, the growth should be tremendous as our media is in greatest demand for all sorts of ceramic based technologies. It doesn't seem that CTKH has an exclusive on any particular ceramic, just that they can do it with little or no machining required.
From what I gather ceramic components are the key to all sorts of devices whos markets will grow exponentially over the next decade. It wouldn't be the first time the experts were wrong, but if they're right a decade from now nearly every portable device with a display will probably have CNT's in both the display and the fuel cell powering it. I expect most computers to be transportable, and while home and business computers may be powered out of a wall plug, they'll also have fuel cells that permit their operation without power for hours, or perhaps days.
What about cars, will CNT fuel cells power them as well, perhaps, I don't think we'll know for a few more years.
The point is, this is a tremendous growth industry. If CDEX becomes a leader in supplying just a very small percentage of all the material used in a variety of ceramic devices it could be huge. Personally I believe when CTKH opens it's books to move up to the OTC it will justify a share price that could go into the pennies, perhaps as high as a nickle, or even a dime on emotion. The contracts and sales that I believe will be announced over the next 5 years could easily grow the price to a dollar or more, especially if the company continues to buy back shares. In 5 years I don't think it's overly optimistic to forecast earnings in the high tens or low hundreds of millions, if that comes to pass, a few dollars a share could easily be justified, especially if the share count diminishes.
Gary
If I understand the process, getting listed on the OTC will require a submission of audited records, I believe for the last three years, to the SEC along with other business disclosures. I believe the SEC has 45 days to ask questions, etc. if nothing is asked, the registration is approved. It is unusual for no questions to be asked, more likely there will be one or more rounds of questions. I say rounds, as every time a question is answered, the SEC has another 45 days to accept, or ask another question. I've been involved with another company which recently got listed after spending over a year in the process.
The good news is that when the company submits the information to the SEC, it becomes part of the public record. Once they apply, we won't have to guess any more about revenue, expenses, etc. they should all be spelled out.
The bad news is that during the registration process, most companies adhere stictly to a Quiet Period that can be found in SEC guidance. If it's anything like the other company, we won't hear a thing from the company until after the registration is effective, but we should see quarterly filings with the SEC.
In that CTKH has been in business longer, and was previously off the Pinks, I would hope its registration will happen rapidly, but don't bet on it, dealing with the SEC isn't an easy task.
Gary
As I see it, the MM's are a fact that doesn't change when you change stocks, they're everywhere. When the volumes up they don't have the control that they do when the trading's light, but practically every stock has lighter and heavier trading days. Occasionally they get burned, like any of us, when they don't know news is coming and it hits them hard.
I'm all for cutting back on what they can do, but they are a needed part of the system, if they can't make a profit they'll disappear and the system falls apart.
Gary
Thanks Orangeman,
That being the case, I find it hard to believe that CTKH isn't reporting, but with the exception of cash on hand, Fayiz may be able to put the value on his assets.
I don't know how you properly value the new ovens he's built, or the existing ones, or other equipment he's acquired. While I'm sure these assets are properly depreciated, they may be worth far more then the price they carry on the books.
As I understand it they build their own ovens, and how they build them may have a lot to do with why they can get the quality that they do out of their ovens. I believe their competitors would gladly pay substantially more than the value their ovens carry on the books for one or more of them.
I really don't know if ovens of this sort should be valued at a million a piece, or a hundred thousand, probably somewhere in between. I understand that Fayiz owns the property, but not in the company's name, so it isn't an asset of the company, they apparently rent it from him. I still suspect that if everything's properly accounted for we should exceed the $10 million in assets at any time.
Gary
Souza,
Just got back from Vegas, haven't seen the tables much colder in a long time. I usually figure to break even or better if I get just one descent shooter, this week it never happened.
Let's hope things get hot in September, certainly the temperatures will be a lot hotter. I usually get a great rate at Sahara, but this time we stayed a Casino Royal, which was compt for seeing a time share. It's a small place, but they do some interesting things in the Casino, in Blackjack you can play two hands and switch cards between hands, and they frequently have $2 Craps with 100 X Odds. I played there a lot but never really got going there. They have the right idea, the tables are always busy.
I really don't know why places like the Riviera, Harrah's etc insist on keeping there tables at $10 with nobody playing. If I'm going to play $10, I'll do it a place like Caesar's, Mirage, etc. not a 50 year old casino. If they lowered the base bets I'd bet they'd be astounded by how busy they were.
Did anything of substance happen with CTKH during my absents, I gather nothing did.
Gary
Chucker,
In crapless craps, the numbers 2, 3, and 12 can be your point instead of being a loss, you can also bet them like any other placed bet and get the appropriate odds.
I played the game a little bit the last time I was there, I'll see if it's still there.
Gary
Souzagotcha,
It's fine with me, but in Vegas I usually get my drinks for free at the tables. The Stratosphere had crapless craps the last time I was there, it was an interesting variation on the game. I may try it again this week.
I too would like to get to a 2 million share position, but I don't know that I'll do it. Much will depend on what other investments do. I'm not really concerned with a particular figure, if I'm right CTKH will make me wealthy, the only question is how wealthy.
As I mentioned previously, I'll be leaving for Vegas tomorrow and be there all week. I hope that when I get back there will be some exciting news about what's happening here. Perhaps I can win enough to buy that other million shares.
Gary
Souzagotcha, I'm sure all shareholders are invited, regardless of how many shares they own. I would imagine you can write of the cost of attending, but I'd suggest that you check with an accountant to be sure.
I'm sure that most tax software would except the expense, if I attend, I'll probably put in for it.
As I remember the reports of the meeting last year, the most interesting conversations occurred at the dinner the company hosted after the meeting for all who attended. I'd definitely plan on attending the dinner if they do it again.
I currently have just a million shares, but even if I don't add more, I believe that could make me wealthy in time if CTKH lives up to its potential. Becoming a CTKH millionair could take awhile, but a few hundred thousand could be in the cards in less than a year if the audited earnings for the last few years prove that earnings are growing at the rates that have been reported.
Gary
Souzagotcha,
If I remember correctly it was the week after Labor Day, something like the 8th or 9th of September. I gather they're incorporated in Nevada and choose to have the Annual Meeting there. Others who have been here longer could probably tell us when others have been held, I gathered that at least the last few years were held in Las Vegas.
Gary
Ceteksevenmillion,
I can see where Fayiz may not want to divulge too much, but I guess the question then is, when will he divulge it. I know he says he wants to move off the Pink's later this year, but what's to prevent him from delaying that as well if things don't get done.
Undergoing a complete audit is not an easy thing, once done it should be made public and maintained. If Fayiz lives up to his commitment to work to get off the Pinks this year, he'll need to file with the SEC by early fall, allowing them time to review and ask questions. If that's the case, and if the Annual Meeting this year is about the same time it was held last year, he should be willing to announce his intentions more precisely by then. I'm spending a few days in Vegas this week, but I hope to go there for the Annual Meeting as well if he goes there again this year. If he'd consider another place in Nevada, I clearly love Tahoe.
Gary
I believe the law says they must make the filing, but if they did have other choices they might have been wise. What concerns me is not hearing about other aspects of the deal. The REGDEX may have been premature if the partnership isn't being completed, if it is, I'll be happy to hear about it.
Gary
Orangeman, I think the answer's simple, and it's been said, whoever it was that wanted stock structured the deal to get him the stock at the current price. If you simply gave him $150K and said, go buy stock, a buy of that size would drive up the price, and he'd get far less stock. Furthermore, if you announced the deal before funding him or providing the stock, the news of the deal would drive the stock up even further.
I've seen other deals that offered other company's stock, typically they can opt for the stock at the time of their choosing before a certain date, the stock is typically priced at the average closing price over the previous 3 to 5 days.
I like the fact that a partner or seller wants shares, it's a statement that they like what they see in the company and believe the stock will eventually be worth far more then the current cash equivalent in time.
Gary
Penny, while I think you're right about the millions, the thing I'm having trouble with is earnings. If the company is truly making substantial money and growing every year, why is it necessary to acquire more funds by issueing stock at the extremely low prices it's bringing.
I realize they've added substantial equipment, that takes money, but what's needed is showing what we're earning. If CTKH is earning money, even if they're turning around and spending it on equipment to increase capacity, if the earnings are displayed, the stock will be worth substantially more, and substantially fewer shares can be issued to acquire additional funds as needed.
Gary
Geoly,
I agree with you, we all sometimes believe we heard something that wasn't said, likewise at times we say something that we deny saying, that doesn't make us liars, just humans.
I know of many cases where CEO's said something unofficially that created problems, was denied, and later was proven true, but I've also seen it go the other way.
CTKH has many unknowns, partly because it isn't a reporting company, but also partly because it appears to have several irons in the fire, it won't necessarily complete every partnership or acquisition, but I suspect that eventually one or more will come to fruition.
Gary
Thanks King George, I've heard that Fayiz keeps some tremendous hours so it doesn't surprize me that he's there on the weekend. What I don't know is whether someone is there checking that everything's running properly at all times.
I know we've all left the house with the oven on, I just don't know if you'd do it with 12 of the type of ovens that CTKH has.
Gary
Orangeman, I'm frankly not concerned. What concerns me is the ovens are fully utilized, and I gather they are. As I said, I would think they'd have the facility manned while the ovens operate, but I'm not certain of that.
To me operating two or three shifts doesn't matter, it's product that matters. If the ovens are fully utilized they're getting as much product as it's possible to produce.
In spite of doubling their capacity it appears that CTKH will shortly need more, and I believe they're working on that. Yesterday I linked an article that mentioned Samsung found the market for LCD Displays to be down, however, if CNT's are as good as they say, and if the price of producing them is lower than the LCD's or Plasma's, I think the demand will be far greater then for the current technology. I expect that by the year 2010 CRT's will be hard to find.
Gary
Orangeman, we know the ovens operate around the clock, seven days a week. I would think that someone's there all the time, but honestly I'm not certain that's true. If it is the case, it may be what JS was referring to when he indicated multiple shifts.
As I gather it, the process has been refined to the point that the unloading and loading of the ovens routinely occurs during the day shift. I'm not certain if schedules are such that ovens don't require action over the weekend.
I certainly don't know much about all the different media's they're producing. I would think that different media would require operating times, temperaturs, etc. What's exciting is in spite of the differences, CTKH can time the critical event so they can be done during the day shifts.
Gary
Orangeman,
I've not seen the actual document and I'm no expert on SEC regulations, but if I were looking to negotiate an acquisition that partially used securities to fund it, I believe I'd rather give warrants giving the right to say a half million dollars worth of stock at the closing price a year from now rather then $150K worth of stock at current prices. That would send a strong message that I expect the stock to more than triple in a year. Of course I very much doubt that Fayiz could say that he gave warrants vs. shares, but I think we'd be able to get the picture.
By the way, here's a link to where Fayiz might want to polish up his CEO training.
Enjoy,
http://www.borowitzreport.com/archive_rpt.asp?rec=1081&srch=
Gary
Here's an interesting article on LCD demand.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=581&e=1&u=/nm/20050307/tc_nm/tech_korea_...
I really wonder if people aren't waiting until they can get higher quality flat panel displays for less. From what I've seen the LCD's don't offer the brightness or clarity from almost any angle that plasma does, but they last a lot longer than plasma without degrading substantially.
As I understand it, the CNT based displays will both be clearer, last longer, and use less energy than either of the other technologies. I just hope it's not to long before CTKH is acknowledged as a leader in the development of CNT based displays.
Gary
King George, I'll agree with you. I think Round was given information confidentially that he was told would be made public. Unfortunately, I believe the situation at CTKH changed, the information wasn't made public, and eventually, partially out of frustration Round revealed more of what he knew.
What we don't know is whether the situation a CTKH has changed so much that what Round knew is no longer true, or if they're still working on what they were when he visited them.
I've been involved with other companies who've successfully executed partnerships that took years to complete. Investors tend to think these things take weeks or a few months to consummate, but some times they take years.
I believe that both Fayiz and Round have been truthful about what they thought they had said, however sometimes what's said and what we hear are two different things. No one is lying when he expresses his belief as to what was said, but if you had a recording to listen to you might find that neither represented exactly what was said properly.
Gary
Chucker, you're welcome to forward my thoughts to Fayiz, however, I've got to believe they're well informed and have a plan of action. As I understand it, the Attorney that attended the Annual Meeting has an excellent reputation in the field of corporate law, I'm sure he would have discussed the potential of doing an IPO on DisplayTek as well as other possibilities with Fayiz.
I believe Fayiz is actually biding time until he has further news on acquisitions and the books have been audited. I believe that much can be expected from CTKH over the next year but it will only happen when Fayiz and his staff are ready.
Gary
Orangeman, look at where DisplayTek might be if Fayiz established the company with say 50 million authorized shares and current CTKH shareholders received one share for every 200 shares. That would put something over 20 million shares in existing shareholders hands and give Fayiz a great deal of fundraising flexibility with nearly 30 million shares available to him.
I would hope that if the DisplayTek rollout was properly done, the company could bring $2 or more a share, equating to one cents a share in CTKH. If it did, Fayiz could potentially bring in over $50 million by doing an IPO. The key IMHO is bringing the stock public with a major brokerage responsible for the IPO. It's possible that a major brokerage could create enough interest in the new issue to generate much higher prices, and therefore more than $50 million. However, if I were Fayiz, I'd keep some of my powder dry and only authorize perhaps 10 million of the new shares in an IPO, the lower outstanding shares could also generate a higher offering price.
It's just my honest opinion but it's very possible that the shares in DisplayTek, even with only one for two hundred, may be worth more then the shares in CTKH, the parent company.
Gary
Orangeman, as I understand the process it takes days in the ovens to yield the media. The timing may be such that all ovens can be turned over during the normal day shift so additional shifts aren't required. In that the ovens are working 24 hours a day production may be at its maximum even with one shift, however, I'd be surprised if nobody is present while the ovens cook.
My point is that additional shifts are of no benefit if the ovens use is already maximized. We don't know that for a fact, but in the past that's what's been indicated. If the cooking time is essentially three days and the start times are staggered, four ovens a day would have to be emptied and refilled in order to keep production maximized.
Gary
Geoly, the one reason Fayiz would need to open the books would be if the purchase involved stock or warrants in the company. In that the attorney apparently filed the REGDEX, it sounds like some stock was part of what Fayiz was proposing to pay. Whether it was Valley Design or someone else they're talking to, if I were the one being acquired and was taking a substantial part of my equity in stock, I'd insist on seeing, or even auditing, the books.
Gary
Jerry,
I doubt if we'll get to Signal Hill.
We're very close to Manchester and Lincoln, if you're going to be nearby let me know. You can reach me at skitahoe@yahoo.com.
We have a place in Incline Village just above the parking lot at Diamond Peak/Ski Incline. I wish I were there but doubt if we'll make it there for a month or two.
Gary
Jerryrth,
If you can get on Scottrade's streamer I believe you get real time quotes on the pinks. I'm not certain whether you must have a Scottrade account.
By the way, we're neighbors, I'm in Westchester.
Gary
Garden Rose and Geoly, I believe both of you have the right idea about how a R/S can be done to the benefit of shareholders.
R/S's are disasters when companies trading for pennies or less decide to get to a dollar or more with splits like 100 to 1 R/S's with the thought they'll have credibility by getting back to a dollar. I've seen several where they were back to pennies in a matter of weeks.
If Fayiz is able to build the share price to 25 to 50 cents investors should support a decision to move to a more prestigeous exchange through a resonable R/S, I like 10 to 1 or less. I believe if an R/S brought the stock to $2 or more it would take little time to build it to over $5. True, we'd only have one tenth the number of shares, but who of us wouldn't be thrilled with 50 cents today.
The good news is if the stock gets on the Nasdaq by reaching $5 it won't stay there very long. $10 and beyond could be just around the corner if Fayiz continues growing CTKH at anywhere close to the way it seems to be growing now.
Gary
There were a number of people last week who said we could expect 2 PR's this week. The one we saw this morning had nothing to do with an SEC filing. Hopefully the next one will clarify what was done, and why.
I'm hoping it involves the Valley Design or other acquisition. From someones comments Fayiz wasn't even aware that it was filed. It was probably something he signed as part of a much bigger picture action, but legally it probably had to be filed before the bigger action could occur.
Tomorrow might be pretty bloody if there's no information about why it was filed however we might be overjoyed when we learn the reasons.
Gary
Jim, that may currently be the case, but in the long run if they can supply the large flat panel displays of the future, I think TV's and computer monitors should be a major part of there business. I would expect that a 4 ft. by 4 ft. media would be worth far more than 16 1 ft by 1 ft media's. I would also think they could make the media in precisely the 16 x 9 widescreen format that's currently used for high definition TV.
I don't doubt that Fayiz has plenty of orders, and you don't want to turn down business, but I hope the future is filled with lots of the larger media that should sell for several hundred, to perhaps thousands of dollars each. On the smaller side, the internals of fuel cells may provide an opportunity that's huge as well.
Gary
It seems to me that if Fayiz is truly buying back shares while making a healthy profit, the less he says about it the more he can buy with a fixed amount of funds.
I find what he's saying encouraging, but as usual, it can't be quantified.
Could someone clarify why the 12 inch media would be so popular. I gather it can be cut up to make smaller devices, but it's to small to be used in most laptops, desktops, etc.
I would think that a somewhat larger size would give far more applications.
It also sounded like the newer material they're working on can be joined to build the really huge displays. That's great, but I would really hope that they're working on ovens that can deliver a one piece media that's 60" or larger.
Gary
There are no rules preventing them from giving numbers, other pink sheets do it. To get off the Pinks they'll have to give audited numbers, I think for three years as well as other information the SEC will need to process the registration. The good news is what they present to the SEC pretty much becomes public.
Gary
I was previously told that the best days for PR were Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, I believe the reasons are that brokers and investors sometimes take long weekends and come in late on Monday, if at all. Friday is traditionally when bad news is dumped, generally after the close, it gives people a weekend to think about their actions rather than acting impulsively.
I'd be happy with a PR after the close, especially if Fayiz would like to build some sort of rapore with the MM's. If he issues the PR before the open, the MM's could certainly be caught in a more serious short squeeze, but they have long memories. I like the idea of gradually moving up and continuing to do so.
Gary
Geoly, do you have a feel for whether the PR will be issued before the market opens on Monday, or after the close. I'm not overly concerned, but if it's before the open I may want to roll out of bed early. Here on the West Coast the market day begins at 6:30, I'm usually not up that early.
Would you care to comment on the importance of being on the Nasdaq site, I'm not familiar with where that may take us.
Gary
Penny, nothing would please me more than a really substantial buyback, but I'm talking about billions of shares.
I agree with you, there are many things you can do to raise funds that are better then issuing them on the open market, but that's hindsight. The problem with most of the things you can do is they take time, if Fayiz thought he didn't have the time, I can understand what he's done.
Does anyone know if he placed the shares in his own hands, or those of people he trusts. If he did that, it may almost be like making a loan to the company, for the good of the company they may sell them back at a reasonable profit.
If he's buying back the stock in a private manner he can do so with virtually no effect on the stock price. Of course this isn't at nearly as great a benefit to investors as buybacks often help the price, but in the long run we're better off if he can buy back more shares.
Let's hope the company's making so much money that it's able to use some of it for the buyback, but before that happens, I'd rather see them close the deal with Valley Design.
Several people have indicated that two PR's are expected next week, I think they have it from a good source. Let's hope it moves the price to a substantially higher trading range.
Gary
Penny, the only time I've seen successful R/S's is when the shareholders fully understand the reason and fully support it. I'd say if Fayiz took the actions needed to build the shareprice to somewhere around 50 cents while moving us to the OTC, if he then asked for shareholder support to move on the Nasdaq by doing a one for ten I believe investors would probably support it.
The key to success is first elevating the share price to a level where we can accept the decision to do a reasonable reverse split. If shareholders do accept it, the price will rise before and after the split in anticipation of going on the Nasdaq, or other exchange.
The R/S's that are killers are the one for a hundred types intended to bring the share price up to a few cents, or perhaps even a dollar. I've yet to see one where the price didn't fall practically to where it was before the R/S.
If you want to see a R/S that worked properly, take a look at Able RX. Another that's currently in the process and may have substantial price growth is CEXI, the R/S was almost a year ago but it came with a buyout and registration which is just in the process of concluding. I was out of Able before the split but am currently holding CEXI with a small profit though I know people who need $10 to break even, I hope it makes it.
Gary
I understand that Fayiz has indicated he would never do another R/S, he did one once that didn't go well.
There are credible posters on Yahoo indicating there should be two P.R.'s next week. They don't know the subject matter but I would hope that one will involve Valley Design and the other be a quarterly update.
Gary
IL Padrino,
If CTKH actually wants to move off the Pinks by the end of the year they should file with the SEC by no later than Summer, or sooner. I say this based on experience with another company that took a year to get it done and still haven't move off the Pinks, but are through the SEC.
Certainly it can be done faster, but the SEC practically always has questions that must be answered after an initial submission, no less than four months should be allowed.
Gary
Dickhertz, I doubt that we'll ever know if a particular product has CTKH inside unless it's clear that our product is not only superior, but a major producer essentially contracts with CTKH announcing that all of a certain model will have CTKH media. I very much doubt that this will happen.
As I understand it, the media that we produce needs little, if any machining, unlike our competitors. While I gather that machining does diminish the quality of the media, it's unclear whether you can see it, at least if you're at a proper viewing distance. If it's like a flaw in a fabric that can only be seen with magnification, it might diminish the price the tailor will pay for the fabric, but I doubt if it will diminish the price of the suit.
Manufacturers may be willing to pay slightly more for CTKH media, or they may want more of it, but unless CTKH can supply all the media that they can possibly conceive of using, they won't want to limit their supplier to CTKH. From what I gather, companies like Sony, Toshiba, etc. like to have multiple suppliers of practically every component that goes into their devices that they don't manufacture in house. The media we supply may, or may not go directly to them, but regardless, you can bet they have multiple sources for getting it.
The good news is that as long as our quality remains good and our prices competitive, we can get all the business we can handle. That's a nice position to be in.
Gary
Penny, if Roundmot were off by 50% and profits were 50% of sales, that would be $20 million in earnings, or to put it another way, nearly a half cent in earnings per share. I think a P/E of 20 would be fairly conservative for a penny stock that has earnings and no outstanding debt, that would give a stock price of a dime.
If Round were more accurate, if profit margins were higher, or if the P/E was substantially higher you could probably make a case for up to perhaps fifty cents, but I think that's a stretch, a quarter, however is a real possibility on $80 million in sales.
Of course we'd actually have to see figures, saying we're up 500% over last years figures wouldn't hack it. If Fayiz is serious about getting off the pinks, we'll see the figures before the year's over. If not, we might just be the most profitable sub penny stock in history.
Gary