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Thank you for sharing magnola,
Some very excellent points of view in that response from Keith. Ones that will serve people well to remember going forward on dealing with various issues here on the board, IMO.
Oooops. My bad. I just glanced at your post and thought you were just asking a good amount of questions about ZN.
My apologies.
LOL!!! All good questions there on your scroll but I think you should maybe just try calling the company to get all the answers you need.
GLTY.
Interesting read:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3060
This company is going to be something else in the long run, IMO.
GLTA who jump in now and are willing to wait for their payday, and a BIG one at that, IMO.
O.K., but this is the last time I'm going to look back for even a second. Why? Because regardless of other opinions here the final word from the SEC on Keith's involvement with his previous company ended up just like this quote from Big Mur's post #43007 said it did:
"There were subsequent SEC investigations and those who committed wrongdoing had to deal with the consequences. During this investigation, some tried to point fingers at KAA. The SEC's investigation found that there was NO involvement from Keith, nor Craig in ANY wrong doing. THEY WERE CLEARED"
The chart shows what has happened to Hemi's S/P over the past two years but that's about it.
As far as what the company has gone through, come back from, and growth from two years ago until now it shows nothing. That is where anyone new to Hemi does there own personal DD and comes up with their own answers that will either satisfy their quest for answers/information about the company or it will not which, of course, lead to a individuals final decision on whether to invest in Hemi or not.
In a nutshell, there is NO doubt that anyone one new to Hemi is going to read posts on this board from people on both sides of the fence. Only through their own personal DD should their choice be made regardless of what anyone says on this board one way or another concerning Hemi Energy Group.
Commons will only be left holding the bag if indeed they have made a bad investment choice. Simple as that. Most of the resons for that I believe I stated in my previous post. Anyone that invests in stocks of any kind knows or should know the risks going in.
I made my choice quite a while back on Hemi and I'm still more than comfortable with it. IMO, we still have a ways to go on this one and I realized that going in. Plenty of diffrent opinions here to be sure and that's fine. But in the end, the only person I'll point a finger at for being right or wrong in this investment is me.
Very nice article! TY, for posting it.
It may, IYO, be "not normal" for pink sheet companies to be legitimate or long term investors to make any money BUT it certainly is not impossible.
It takes a lot of work and time to try and uncover the ones that meet that specific individuals comfort level to invest in, and we all have different levels of tolerance for risk. If one just throws money into a pink and expects it to knock down a nice profit just because it looks good or if one takes someone else's word that it's a good stock then that individual usually get what they have coming and has no one to blame but themselves for hitting the buy button.
IMO, there has been a LOT of very good research type DD done here as well as literally on the Hemi lease site DD by a few, (which is a big plus, IMO), on this board.
It's been no secret here that the longs on Hemi are waiting for end of Hemi's game plan. The buyout. The longs obviously still believe in what they have invested in or they would not still be here. For sure, it has been a wild ride at times and some don't like roller coasters but such is life in the stock market. I'm sure there have also been some that have tried to flip this stock. They also know the risk. To each their own on their trading style and good luck to which ever style each individual reading this does.
Zguy's post (#42782), IMO, was excellent in spelling out what it's like investing in the world of pink sheet stocks. If a person can handle the ups and downs and have the patience to hold onto something that he/she truly believes will pan out in the end, they'll be all right. If not the individual is going to drive themselves crazy and should stick to the big boards as zguy suggests.
Like any stock, we should only bet what we individually are willing to/can afford to lose. There are never any guarantee's. It simply comes down to each individual making their own choices and being willing to accept what the final outcome of their own personal investment decision was, good or bad.
GLTA in what's left of '08 and all of '09.
As I commented to Merry CHRISTmas earlier via PM in response to lifting up a prayer for Annabelle's support:
Every single one of them is heard by the One called the Great Physician.
Thank you, tenac.
My family very much appreciates the prayer support. I will be sure to show my daughter and her family this board, along with a couple others here on IHUB, when they get here a little later so they see first hand the support given here by fellow Christians.
God's blessings to you and all here,
oilslick
Congrats to all longs here for a heck of a nice day. Many more to you.
Yep, it only makes snese, IMO, to only go after the oil for right now. The NG isn't going anywhere. There will be a proper time in the future to take care of that.
Hemi is doing the right thing by just taking their time and making all of the well thought out moves to stay debt free. The rest is going to take care of it's self when the time is right.
Patience is key to this long play. Slow and steady wins the race here.
GLYA and hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas!
Very nice!
Thanks, Kels.
Thank you for taking such an interest in my granddaughter's story, plugger.
It is my families hope and prayer that her story will give hope and inspiration to others who may someday have a loved one that has this disease.
OT-Another interesting article, IMO, that I found while browsing around:
Oil Prices are Wrong--Very Wrong
Wednesday, December 24th, 2008
Everybody seems to have the same question for me lately: What's the deal with gasoline prices?
How could it go from $2 a gallon to over $4 and then back to $1.66 in a single year? Was it speculators? The evil machinations of OPEC? Badly-timed fills and draws of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)? A financial calamity engineered by the masterminds of a shadowy wealth conspiracy?
It's never an easy question to answer, but I can easily say "none of the above."
The price of oil and gasoline is set daily and globally by a complex interaction of many factors, including the relative valuations of currency, speculation in oil futures, the fact that oil is "priced at the margins," delayed supply and demand feedback to the market, economic growth rates, money flows of hedge funds and big institutional investors, geological factors, geopolitics, and many more.
Oil shot to $147 this year because of a particular highly-leveraged alchemy of those factors, and it fell as the leverage unwound. It's down now because the world is heading into a major recession and traders are, as usual, overdoing their bearish reaction.
OPEC's responses this year have been mostly late to the game, so they were regularly ignored by the market. Last week's production cuts by the cartel, and the subsequent sell-off in oil, was a fine example of this.
Filling the SPR is too negligible to move the markets either. In May, the debate over filling the SPR raged on with hardly anyone seeming to realize that its 68,000 barrels per day of demand is a mere blip against the US consumption of 21 million barrels per day. Traders ignored it.
Much more to the point is an analysis of over 100 studies on gasoline price elasticity by the trade magazine Energy Journal, which found when gas prices increase 10%, they cut demand by 2.6%. When prices fall, consumption picks back up.
Anatomy of a Frenzy
Oil and other commodities shot up in the first part of the year as investors sought a safe haven against the financial calamity stemming from the subprime meltdown and levered up their bets with wild abandon.
That trend reversed course in June as the world's central banks began cutting interest rates and the US flooded the markets with dollars. The global deleveraging that ensued caused a rout in the commodity markets, and absolutely everything was sold indiscriminately as money managers scrambled to meet redemption calls and raise cash.
The progressively worsening news about the health of the global economy has only fed the selling frenzy, pushing down oil prices further still. It's now more profitable to store oil than to sell it immediately, and OPEC has made yet another belated and ineffectual move to curb a supply glut.
The Asian tigers that were widely expected to support demand, even as OECD demand fell, have reported extremely bearish numbers in the last week as their economic growth stalls.
Oil consumption is off 3.2% from a year ago in China, the world's second-largest consumer of oil, and its crude imports are now at their lowest levels this year.
Japan's oil exports fell to record lows in the sharpest monthly decline since such records have been kept; meanwhile, imports to the world's third-largest oil consumer are down 17% year over year. South Korea's oil imports are also down 6.5% year over year.
Oil consumption by the world's top oil consumer, the US, has led the global decline with an expected 1.2 million barrels per day decline from past levels through 2009, according to the latest EIA report.
And voila: after thirteen straight weeks of price declines, gasoline is back to $1.66 a gallon.
Some have even suggested that oil in the $40s, and the current glut of oil supply, is proof that fears about peak oil supply were wrong.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
A False Sense of Complacency
A sub-$40 fill-up only lulls us into a false sense of complacency. As I have written repeatedly in recent weeks, we are setting ourselves up for a serious supply problem in the future with oil prices now below their replacement costs.
The facts are sobering:
Current petroleum stocks in the US are still within the average range for this time of year, according to EIA. They're now about 8% higher than this time last year, but that's really nothing to write home about, and it's not much of a "glut."
In a recent interview with Jim Puplava, energy analyst Robert Hirsch commented that a 1 million barrels per day decline in world demand would only move back the global peak of oil production by one month. By that metric, the allegedly huge cutback in oil consumption has bought the world about one month more before we peak—whoop-de-do.
Oil production in Canada, the US's top source of crude imports, is faltering as prices are now too low to justify new projects that tap its large-but-costly and difficult reserves in tar sands and heavy oil.
Our number-three source of imports, Mexico, is in serious trouble. Crude output from our southern neighbor has fallen 7% over last year, and exports are falling much faster, at a 20% decline, according to Pemex. (As I wrote back in June, exports fall faster than overall production. See "The Impending Oil Export Crisis.") Production from its largest field, Cantarell, one of the four "supergiant" oil fields in the world, is crashing at the rate of 33% per year. At the current rate, Mexico's oil exports will cease altogether in just seven years.
Experts at the ASPO and elsewhere believe that, within the next two years, world oil production will go into permanent decline, with depletion removing 2.5 million barrels per day from the world market— that's roughly equivalent to the total oil imports of Germany. There are no oil projects that can overcome a decline rate like that. And yet, no major economy is even preparing for this inevitability.
Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has warned that the world needs $75 oil to ensure future supply, and that current prices "are wreaking havoc on the industry and threatening current and planned investments."
With gasoline now well below $2 a gallon, hybrids and other higher-efficiency cars are staying on the dealer lots. According to an analyst at Edmunds.com, a new hybrid would pay for itself in gasoline savings in two or three years with gasoline at $4 a gallon; but, below $2 a gallon, it's more like seven to eight years. Less than a year ago, you had to get on a waiting list and pay a premium over sticker to buy a new Prius. Now dealers have lots full of them, and Toyota has experienced such a sharp decline in sales that it posted its first operating loss in 70 years. Hopes that we will quickly replace a large percentage of our rolling stock with higher efficiency vehicles are now on hold, along with the hopes for a massive campaign of drilling shale formations and deepwater reservoirs.
A steep contango condition in oil futures is still in place, reflecting the market's near-term oversupply and long-term uncertainty.
Given the evidence, the price of oil is wrong. Very wrong. Crude for under $65 a barrel is a bargain, and crude in the low $40s is a steal. I would not be at all surprised to see a sudden and violent move back up for oil prices within the next year, once the current extreme market conditions revert to the mean.
I am still long oil (United States Oil Fund LP ETF, NYSE:USO) and will add to my position if it goes lower. My expectation is to hold it for a year, in case it further overshoots to the downside before recovering.
I'm also on the hunt for top-notch oil companies with low production costs, sizable reserves, and balance sheets healthy enough to let them acquire smaller competitors at basement prices.
I know it's been a tough year for most investors; but, we're nearly done with this turkey, and I'm setting my sights on profits for 2009. The buying opportunity of a lifetime is upon us. All we have to do now is wait for the right moment to pull the trigger.
Yeah, you are probably right, sad to say. IMO, there is going to be some very rough sleding ahead for the markets.
Seems now like everyday in the markets you are walking through a mine field. Ya just wonder when you take the next step if something is going to blow up on that day.
Pretty risky out there.
GLTA.
WOW!!! You want Christmas twice in one year? LOL!!!
Got to disagree with you on one part of your post. ABB is not a good company. It is a GREAT one. GO ABB!!!
OT-Update On My Granddaughter Annabelle.
I am posting the following letter that was written by my daughter yesterday on Annabelle's website. I still get several PM's wanting to know how she has been doing and I appreciate every one of them. Some who donated to Annabelle's fundraiser for defraying costs from her liver transplant reads this board. I would like to thank everyone here on IHUB once again for all of their support whether it was through donating funds, lifting up a prayer, or sending me a PM of support through that difficult time. It was all appreciated more than words can ever express.
The following is the letter from my daughter, Amy:
Today my heart is singing a happy song. We are feeling overjoyed with all the many blessings God has given us this year. This fall and winter have been so completely different than last year. One year ago at this time Annabelle’s name just went on the liver transplant list after our worst battle ever with OTC. This fall I never passed up an opportunity to play football with Ben, to listen intensely to Annabelle as she would tell me about her fabulous day she had at school, or take Beau for a gator ride around our neighborhood that never failed to have a dead battery once we were several blocks away from our house. This fall I also ran the Des Moines Marathon after months of training crossing the finish line in four hours and eight minutes. My shirt proudly read…organ donors save lives.
This winter I feel like I have already bundled and unbundled my kids in snow pants, coats, hats, gloves, scarves, and boots more than a thousand times and I know…December is not even over yet! We’ve enjoyed baking lots of goodies, and especially love curling up in front of the fire place with a good book, board game, or movie.
Over thanksgiving Annabelle broke her arm and wrist in a chair that reclines while at our relatives. She is now sporting a hot pink cast on her left arm. Unfortunately she is a lefty. But as with everything else that comes her way she just takes it in stride. Her love for art has kept her motivated to continue to use both hands. She may be a little ambidextrous! Her recent lab results were not impressive so we will retest her in two weeks verses wait a whole month. They believe it may be the result of her broken bones. We will also be having her one year appointment in January. This will also consist of an IGFR test which checks to see how well her kidneys are functioning because the anti-rejection meds are so hard on them. We will also be meeting with a neurologist.
A couple days ago we had a snow day…school was cancelled. I love those days. Getting ready for the day quickly, after showering I diffused my hair with the dryer (verses taking the time to blow dry, and run a straightner through it), and I threw on some comfy clothes. I spent little time upstairs because I had three kids downstairs doing…who knows what. I ran back down stairs to find my three “Angels” playing nicely and watching cartoons. Annabelle looks at me and says, “It looks like you are having a bad hair day.” “Oh you do ha.” I reply. A little later we are all upstairs in the living room and Annabelle begins to move the kitchen chair over to the back of the couch and she is going to climb over it. I politely tell her, “No Annabelle, you need to go find something to do like go down and get a puzzle.” And she diligently responded, “And you need to go find something to do like go upstairs and fix your hair (sassy, with her hand on her hip, and a head shake). Wanting to burst out laughing I controlled my gut and said, “You need an attitude adjustment.” The next day we were downtown at the Christian book store and Annabelle brought a little G.G. book to me and asked if she could get it. I told her no, she already has one at home. She started to mutter…b..u..t; I simply pointed to the shelf to put it back on to and she stomped her little feet back there and stomped back to me as I’m leading my ducklings out of the store she says loudly with hands on her hips… “And I don’t need an attitude adjustment either!” I just gave her a hug and said God I love you. I would have given anything for a moment like that last year.
Last week the kids and I were doing some Christmas baking. We melted some almond bark, spooned it into some circled pretzels and topped with a Christmas m&m. Oh my goodness what a fantastic mess I had. They were singing along with Christmas music we were listening to and they were giggling over their own mistakes and hummm…accidently dropping pretzels to the dog…BEAU! Once we had scrapped the last bit of almond bark out of the bowels and tried to dig up buried spoons covered with dried frosting, and chisled some almond bark off of the floor we were ready to store our goodies on paper plates and freeze them ‘til we were ready to travel for the holidays. As I was gracefully peeling them off the wax paper I was chuckling because some of them looked so hilarious and they were so far from perfect but yet I loved them so much. And then I thought to myself, you know I am soooo far from perfect and we all are but yet God loves us so much, so much. His love never fails us, but yet we fail him all the time. We constantly make mistakes and he will forgive us every single time. And as faithful as I am to my kids and how deep my love is for them, we are his children and he is faithful to us and his love is deeper than the deepest ocean it is beyond measuring. He loves us so much he gave us Jesus. A few days ago Annie was holding a figurine of hers of a little girl kneeling by a cross and she said with tears in her eyes, “mom, this makes me want to see Jesus.” And I told her someday she will. But today we don’t get to see him…we get to feel him. I put her hand on her heart and I told her how much Jesus loves her.
My prayer for you this holiday season is that you know how loved you are, none of us are perfect. Enjoy those not so perfect cookies, embrace the time you have with the ones you love, but most of all I hope you truly see the many, many blessings that God has given you; and if someone needs some compassion or love this Christmas…don’t hesitate to give it to them; let someone see and feel Jesus through you!
Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a blessed New Year
Love , Amy and the rest of the gang
OT-Update On My Granddaughter Annabelle.
I am posting the following letter that was written by my daughter yesterday on Annabelle's website. I still get several PM's wanting to know how she has been doing and I appreciate every one of them. Some who donated to Annabelle's fundraiser for defraying costs from her liver transplant reads this board. I would like to thank everyone here on IHUB once again for all of their support whether it was through donating funds, lifting up a prayer, or sending me a PM of support through that difficult time. It was all appreciated more than words can ever express.
The following is the letter from my daughter, Amy:
Today my heart is singing a happy song. We are feeling overjoyed with all the many blessings God has given us this year. This fall and winter have been so completely different than last year. One year ago at this time Annabelle’s name just went on the liver transplant list after our worst battle ever with OTC. This fall I never passed up an opportunity to play football with Ben, to listen intensely to Annabelle as she would tell me about her fabulous day she had at school, or take Beau for a gator ride around our neighborhood that never failed to have a dead battery once we were several blocks away from our house. This fall I also ran the Des Moines Marathon after months of training crossing the finish line in four hours and eight minutes. My shirt proudly read…organ donors save lives.
This winter I feel like I have already bundled and unbundled my kids in snow pants, coats, hats, gloves, scarves, and boots more than a thousand times and I know…December is not even over yet! We’ve enjoyed baking lots of goodies, and especially love curling up in front of the fire place with a good book, board game, or movie.
Over thanksgiving Annabelle broke her arm and wrist in a chair that reclines while at our relatives. She is now sporting a hot pink cast on her left arm. Unfortunately she is a lefty. But as with everything else that comes her way she just takes it in stride. Her love for art has kept her motivated to continue to use both hands. She may be a little ambidextrous! Her recent lab results were not impressive so we will retest her in two weeks verses wait a whole month. They believe it may be the result of her broken bones. We will also be having her one year appointment in January. This will also consist of an IGFR test which checks to see how well her kidneys are functioning because the anti-rejection meds are so hard on them. We will also be meeting with a neurologist.
A couple days ago we had a snow day…school was cancelled. I love those days. Getting ready for the day quickly, after showering I diffused my hair with the dryer (verses taking the time to blow dry, and run a straightner through it), and I threw on some comfy clothes. I spent little time upstairs because I had three kids downstairs doing…who knows what. I ran back down stairs to find my three “Angels” playing nicely and watching cartoons. Annabelle looks at me and says, “It looks like you are having a bad hair day.” “Oh you do ha.” I reply. A little later we are all upstairs in the living room and Annabelle begins to move the kitchen chair over to the back of the couch and she is going to climb over it. I politely tell her, “No Annabelle, you need to go find something to do like go down and get a puzzle.” And she diligently responded, “And you need to go find something to do like go upstairs and fix your hair (sassy, with her hand on her hip, and a head shake). Wanting to burst out laughing I controlled my gut and said, “You need an attitude adjustment.” The next day we were downtown at the Christian book store and Annabelle brought a little G.G. book to me and asked if she could get it. I told her no, she already has one at home. She started to mutter…b..u..t; I simply pointed to the shelf to put it back on to and she stomped her little feet back there and stomped back to me as I’m leading my ducklings out of the store she says loudly with hands on her hips… “And I don’t need an attitude adjustment either!” I just gave her a hug and said God I love you. I would have given anything for a moment like that last year.
Last week the kids and I were doing some Christmas baking. We melted some almond bark, spooned it into some circled pretzels and topped with a Christmas m&m. Oh my goodness what a fantastic mess I had. They were singing along with Christmas music we were listening to and they were giggling over their own mistakes and hummm…accidently dropping pretzels to the dog…BEAU! Once we had scrapped the last bit of almond bark out of the bowels and tried to dig up buried spoons covered with dried frosting, and chisled some almond bark off of the floor we were ready to store our goodies on paper plates and freeze them ‘til we were ready to travel for the holidays. As I was gracefully peeling them off the wax paper I was chuckling because some of them looked so hilarious and they were so far from perfect but yet I loved them so much. And then I thought to myself, you know I am soooo far from perfect and we all are but yet God loves us so much, so much. His love never fails us, but yet we fail him all the time. We constantly make mistakes and he will forgive us every single time. And as faithful as I am to my kids and how deep my love is for them, we are his children and he is faithful to us and his love is deeper than the deepest ocean it is beyond measuring. He loves us so much he gave us Jesus. A few days ago Annie was holding a figurine of hers of a little girl kneeling by a cross and she said with tears in her eyes, “mom, this makes me want to see Jesus.” And I told her someday she will. But today we don’t get to see him…we get to feel him. I put her hand on her heart and I told her how much Jesus loves her.
My prayer for you this holiday season is that you know how loved you are, none of us are perfect. Enjoy those not so perfect cookies, embrace the time you have with the ones you love, but most of all I hope you truly see the many, many blessings that God has given you; and if someone needs some compassion or love this Christmas…don’t hesitate to give it to them; let someone see and feel Jesus through you!
Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a blessed New Year
Love , Amy and the rest of the gang
Your welcome. I will post how her next test results turn out to keep you all updated.
OT-Update On My Granddaughter Annabelle.
I am posting the following letter that was written by my daughter yesterday on Annabelle's website. I still get several PM's wanting to know how she has been doing and I appreciate every one of them. Pretty much everyone who donated to Annabelle's fundraiser for defraying costs from her liver transplant reads this board. I would like to thank everyone here on IHUB once again for all of their support whether it was through donating funds, lifting up a prayer, or sending me a PM of support through that difficult time. It was all appreciated more than words can ever express.
The following is the letter from my daughter, Amy:
Today my heart is singing a happy song. We are feeling overjoyed with all the many blessings God has given us this year. This fall and winter have been so completely different than last year. One year ago at this time Annabelle’s name just went on the liver transplant list after our worst battle ever with OTC. This fall I never passed up an opportunity to play football with Ben, to listen intensely to Annabelle as she would tell me about her fabulous day she had at school, or take Beau for a gator ride around our neighborhood that never failed to have a dead battery once we were several blocks away from our house. This fall I also ran the Des Moines Marathon after months of training crossing the finish line in four hours and eight minutes. My shirt proudly read…organ donors save lives.
This winter I feel like I have already bundled and unbundled my kids in snow pants, coats, hats, gloves, scarves, and boots more than a thousand times and I know…December is not even over yet! We’ve enjoyed baking lots of goodies, and especially love curling up in front of the fire place with a good book, board game, or movie.
Over thanksgiving Annabelle broke her arm and wrist in a chair that reclines while at our relatives. She is now sporting a hot pink cast on her left arm. Unfortunately she is a lefty. But as with everything else that comes her way she just takes it in stride. Her love for art has kept her motivated to continue to use both hands. She may be a little ambidextrous! Her recent lab results were not impressive so we will retest her in two weeks verses wait a whole month. They believe it may be the result of her broken bones. We will also be having her one year appointment in January. This will also consist of an IGFR test which checks to see how well her kidneys are functioning because the anti-rejection meds are so hard on them. We will also be meeting with a neurologist.
A couple days ago we had a snow day…school was cancelled. I love those days. Getting ready for the day quickly, after showering I diffused my hair with the dryer (verses taking the time to blow dry, and run a straightner through it), and I threw on some comfy clothes. I spent little time upstairs because I had three kids downstairs doing…who knows what. I ran back down stairs to find my three “Angels” playing nicely and watching cartoons. Annabelle looks at me and says, “It looks like you are having a bad hair day.” “Oh you do ha.” I reply. A little later we are all upstairs in the living room and Annabelle begins to move the kitchen chair over to the back of the couch and she is going to climb over it. I politely tell her, “No Annabelle, you need to go find something to do like go down and get a puzzle.” And she diligently responded, “And you need to go find something to do like go upstairs and fix your hair (sassy, with her hand on her hip, and a head shake). Wanting to burst out laughing I controlled my gut and said, “You need an attitude adjustment.” The next day we were downtown at the Christian book store and Annabelle brought a little G.G. book to me and asked if she could get it. I told her no, she already has one at home. She started to mutter…b..u..t; I simply pointed to the shelf to put it back on to and she stomped her little feet back there and stomped back to me as I’m leading my ducklings out of the store she says loudly with hands on her hips… “And I don’t need an attitude adjustment either!” I just gave her a hug and said God I love you. I would have given anything for a moment like that last year.
Last week the kids and I were doing some Christmas baking. We melted some almond bark, spooned it into some circled pretzels and topped with a Christmas m&m. Oh my goodness what a fantastic mess I had. They were singing along with Christmas music we were listening to and they were giggling over their own mistakes and hummm…accidently dropping pretzels to the dog…BEAU! Once we had scrapped the last bit of almond bark out of the bowels and tried to dig up buried spoons covered with dried frosting, and chisled some almond bark off of the floor we were ready to store our goodies on paper plates and freeze them ‘til we were ready to travel for the holidays. As I was gracefully peeling them off the wax paper I was chuckling because some of them looked so hilarious and they were so far from perfect but yet I loved them so much. And then I thought to myself, you know I am soooo far from perfect and we all are but yet God loves us so much, so much. His love never fails us, but yet we fail him all the time. We constantly make mistakes and he will forgive us every single time. And as faithful as I am to my kids and how deep my love is for them, we are his children and he is faithful to us and his love is deeper than the deepest ocean it is beyond measuring. He loves us so much he gave us Jesus. A few days ago Annie was holding a figurine of hers of a little girl kneeling by a cross and she said with tears in her eyes, “mom, this makes me want to see Jesus.” And I told her someday she will. But today we don’t get to see him…we get to feel him. I put her hand on her heart and I told her how much Jesus loves her.
My prayer for you this holiday season is that you know how loved you are, none of us are perfect. Enjoy those not so perfect cookies, embrace the time you have with the ones you love, but most of all I hope you truly see the many, many blessings that God has given you; and if someone needs some compassion or love this Christmas…don’t hesitate to give it to them; let someone see and feel Jesus through you!
Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a blessed New Year
Love , Amy and the rest of the gang
Merry Christmas to all and to all a very profitable New Year.
OT-One heck of a read here.
The Coming Oil Train Wreck
First stop: Mexico?
BY TONY ALLISON
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2008/1222.html
Only a true contrarian can worry about high oil prices, shortages and global economic shockwaves when the price of oil has fallen from $147 to under $40 per barrel in less than six months and gasoline is now less than $2 a gallon! I should be singing “Happy (driving) days are here again,” but I’m not. The facts speak otherwise, and the time for preparation and mitigation is growing short.
Aside from a few Paul Revere’s such as Matt Simmons, there is precious little media alarm or urgency over an issue that is historic in nature and monumental in scope. The stark IEA (International Energy Agency) report released this fall was mostly ignored in the media, other than to highlight that 2009 will feature “demand destruction.” Other headlines touted “Goodbye to the oil supercycle.” The message sent to the public; lower oil prices ahead, problem solved. Unfortunately, the critical message of 9.1% global oil depletion was ignored.
The first line of the IEA report set the tone. “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable- environmentally, economically, socially.” The last line of the report set the agenda. “Time is running out and the time to act is now.”
Permanent supply destruction
The global oil depletion crisis will last much longer than the current credit crisis, severe as that may be. Credit can be created, and savings can be rebuilt over time. Sadly, oil, created over millions of years, is finite. Oil is a one-time gift that will likely be wrapping up its brief lifespan as an energy source some time late this century. The problems begin, however, when global oil production peaks, and evidence is building that the peak may have occurred in 2005. The average age of the top 20 oil fields in the world is now 59 years.
Oil prices may not rise significantly in 2009, as economies deflate and weaken around the globe. However, temporary demand destruction does not hold even a small candle to permanent supply destruction. To add to the problem, exploration and production around the world is downsizing, as the dramatically lower oil prices make projects uneconomical. Looking at the current 9.1% estimate of global depletion, combined with shrinking levels of drilling and exploration, the medium term outlook is daunting. According to the IEA report, “There remains a real risk that underinvestment will cause an oil supply crunch. The gap now evident between what is being built and what is needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”
The red line (oil prices) is now considerably lower (approximately $40 a barrel for the February contract), and if the trend follows, domestic investment (blue line) will be much lower in 2009. This does not bode well for future supply.
Ugly math
Looking out longer term, to 2030, the math gets ugly. Current global oil production is 72 million barrels per day. According to Simmons, if the world spends a fortune (many trillions) trying to mitigate the depletion rate, it is estimated global production will fall to 25 million barrels per day by 2030. Without the mitigation, world production will plunge to 9 million barrels per day. If those numbers are not a wake-up call to the world, the coming shortages will certainly provide it.
Simmons has stated that we need to find “four new Saudi Arabia’s” just to keep global production flat in the coming decades. The best geologists in the world with the latest high-tech exploration equipment haven’t been able to find one Saudi Arabia. The chances of them finding multiple super-giant oil fields, and soon, are not overly promising.
Mexico- the first domino to fall?
Mexico has long relied heavily on Cantarell, the super-giant discovered in 1976, and until recently the world’s second largest oil field. Cantarell is unique in that it formed as a result of a massive meteor that crashed into the ocean off the Yucatan Peninsula over 60 million years ago, forming the Chicxulub crater. This is thought to be the meteor that radically changed the earth’s climate, killing off 75% of the species on earth, including the dinosaurs. Over millions of years, the massive crater eventually produced over 30 billion barrels of oil.
In the mid-1970’s angry shrimp fishermen, led by Senor Cantarell, stormed the Pemex offices in Veracruz, complaining about oil oozing out of the sea bed, ruining their shrimp nets and demanding compensation. Pemex had no wells in the area, but that was soon to change, along with the fortunes of Mexico.
As of May 2005, Cantarell was producing 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (65% of total Mexican production). Today the figure is roughly 900,000 barrels per day. The most troubling aspect is that the decline rate is accelerating, estimated at 2.5% per month currently, or 30% annually.
No oil exports after 2009?
According to Matt Simmons, by the end of 2009, Mexico will no longer be an oil exporter. If Simmons is correct, it will be very difficult to replace the oil revenue that has supported 40% of the Mexican budget. The Mexican government has recently taken the unprecedented step of voting to allow foreign oil companies to explore for oil in Mexico. In a country that celebrates the 1938 nationalization of its oil industry as a federal holiday, it was clearly an act of desperation. Promising offshore discoveries in Mexico will likely take decades to bring to production, according to Simmons, due to the extreme depths and massive technical challenges.
Unfortunately, it may be too little too late to replace the rapidly disappearing Cantarell production. In as little as 12-24 months, the effects may be felt both in Mexico and the US. Replacing the 1.3 million barrels per day the US now imports from Mexico won’t be easy (the US imports 1.4 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia by means of comparison). For Mexico, the problems run much deeper, as they must quickly diversify their economy or face wrenching economic and social dislocations. The adjustment period will likely bring great change and tumult, perhaps across the border as well.
A crossroads coming
Be it late 2009, 2010 or even 2011, the price of energy is virtually a lock to head back to its old highs and likely well beyond. Deleveraging and psychological forces can rule the markets for any short term period. Looking ahead, the fundamentals will prevail, as they always do. As economies around the world are printing money for huge stimulus programs, oil companies are shuttering production. Combined with a 9.1% depletion rate, the imbalances are growing. A crossroads is coming, where demand will re-ignite at some point and supply will have difficulty catching up. We have a liquid fuel crisis. We are decades from electrifying the transportation system, and wind, solar and nuclear will not solve a liquid fuel shortage. At least in the US, the best opportunity appears to be rapid conversion to natural gas-powered transportation.
Investment Implications
It seems almost nonsensical to speak of high energy costs and shortages in this deflationary environment. But given that the global economy recovers one day, the seeds of higher prices have already been sown. An investor with a longer term time horizon should own well-managed oil production, exploration and service companies, especially at these much lower valuations. The resource these companies bring to market is growing ever scarcer, and will be desperately needed for decades to come. The peak-oil train wreck will be a crisis for many, but a great opportunity for others. While the current recession/depression may be long and hard, investors must look beyond and invest on the coming geological realities. As a citizen, it is also important to begin preparing for a difficult energy future, whenever it arrives.
Hit the ground running
The new Obama administration wants rapid change into renewable energy sources. Those changes are expensive and will be difficult to sell at low oil prices. Government policies will likely encourage higher oil prices. Of course official acknowledgement of global oil depletion carries many political risks and would raise havoc with many of his supporters. As dire as the longer term situation appears, would any politician take severe political measures before shortages strike? Not likely. Thus, don’t expect to hear much about peak oil or global depletion from the next administration, at least initially. However, they will know the facts as well, and must begin working on all aspects of energy creation on day one. It would be politically wise for President Obama to link fossil fuel depletion and global warming and work on the issues as one package.
Enjoy the holidays, and the inexpensive gas at the pump. But keep a watchful eye out for the train heading our way.
Today’s Market
U.S. stocks extended losses Monday, with the consumer-discretionary and energy sectors hit hardest after Walgreen Co., the nation's largest drugstore chain, reported disappointing results and Toyota Motor Corp. forecast a loss for the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 73.27 to close at 8870.54. The S&P 500 Index was down 11.78 to close at 919.21. The Nasdaq also closed lower, ending at 1616.74, down 30.66.
Crude-oil futures fell Monday to below $40 a barrel as demand concerns outweighed news that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could cut production further.
Gold for February delivery, the most active contract, closed up $9.80, or 1.2%, at $847.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose 2.1% last week.
Tony Allison
Registered Representative
Copyright © 2008 All rights reserved.
Exactly.
Hmmmm......well I guess Hemi can stop moving forward with their horizontal drilling program since oil will never go up again in our life time. Same for the almighty chart which is, without a doubt, the final nail in the Hemi coffin.
Spending any of the money they made free and clear on the Wyoming lease sale just as well be left in their savings account. Don't want to take a chance on coming up dry on the above mentioned drilling program and adding value to the company. A little interest in a savings account is better than nothing.
Hemi should continue to pull just enough oil out of the ground to continue to pay the bills and sit back until some desperate big board company just happens to throw a little "carrot" (just love that word) at them for a buyout.
Maybe they should just sell out now for a nickel a share (maybe that's to much?) just to be rid of it all. Heck, they probably will let it go for less if Keith wises up and starts reading this board on how to run his company and what a few believe that his company is really worth.
I just can't figure out why all CEO's don't read IHUB. Knowledge is power. I'd hate to see any of it on this board go to waste. The positive and especially the negative.
To all the longs here, J/K. To the others, well.... even the ones who believe in this company should get the feel of what it's like to live on the "dark side" for once. LOL!!!
Not picking on anyone. Just trying to have a little fun and lighten the mood around here somewhat. Unreal the way the atmosphere has been lately on this board.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday everyone.
I believe that post #42559 has just been validated.
The saga continues......LOL!!!
OT-another interesting article of opinions:
Does Matt Simmons still expect $200 oil in two years?
JAY HANCOCK'S BLOG
December 20, 2008
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/hancock/blog/2008/12/the_price_for_a_barrel.html
The price for a barrel of oil has fallen from $145 in July to less than $40.
So you might think investment banker Matthew Simmons is worried about his wager that oil will be worth five times that amount two years from now. Convinced that oil production can’t keep up with global growth, Simmons bet New York Times columnist and blogger John Tierney $10,000 that the average daily crude price in 2010 will be more than $200.
Is he having second thoughts?
“God no,” he said on the phone the other day. “We bet on the average price in 2010. That’s an eternity from now.”
Simmons argues that the economy isn’t as weak as it seems, that low oil prices will shut down production and that the world will soon see a supply squeeze and price spike. Oil price graphs, he says, will look like a “V” – straight down and straight up.
“We’re going to create a ’V’ that’s very dangerous," he said. “We could pierce through the old price high like a hot knife through butter in a very short period of time.”
Well, why did oil just crash below $37? Doesn’t that indicate evaporation of demand?
“What we’re witnessing is probably a massive liquidation of paper contracts,” said Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.
Tierney, an admirer of late University of Maryland business professor Julian Simon, likes his chances. The last time commodity prices soared, in the late 1970s, Simon bet environmental scaremonger Paul Ehrlich that they would fall. Simon’s thinking, based on centuries of economic history: Substitution, technology and new discoveries would keep resources from becoming scarce and expensive
Simon won the bet. Tierney had him in mind when he bet Simmons, in 2005.
“I remain utterly ignorant about the intricacies of the oil market either today or in 2010 – and I remain confident that it’s smart to bet against energy or any other resource becoming scarcer and more expensive in the future,” Tierney says via email. “So I figure the odds are with me to win this bet, especially now that prices are still so much below $200 a barrel.”
The futures market says he's right. Oil for delivery in eternity -- 2010 -- is $60 a barrel
Yup, it sure is "great" having these all knowing saviour's around trying to save the world from Hemi.
I'll take our so called carrots any day. Those being the ones pulled right from Hemi's garden.
The only type of carrots offered up from our little group of saviour's are the kind that's left the next day after the rabbit eats them. Small, scattered randomly with no meaning, and smell. And rabbit's do a lot of that everyday. Kind of reminds me of a LOT of posts lately here on the board.
IMO, a few here are pulling out all the stops to get as many cheapies as they can, whether they want to admit it or not. My what a flipping world we live in, LOL.
Gonna call it a day already and enjoy a bit more of a peaceful world watching the NFL and sampling fresh baked goods rolling out of the kitchen.
GLTA carrot eaters and carrot excreators.
OT, interesting read:
Profiting from Oil’s Rebound
Editor’s Note: Think that gas prices will be falling below $1 soon? Think that global demand for oil will plummet as the recession rolls on? Well, Byron King, editor of Outstanding Investments, stops by to say think again. Enjoy…
Profiting from Oil’s Rebound
By Byron King
December 16, 2008
“Global Demand for Oil to Plummet,” screams the headline of the Financial Times on Dec. 10. Huh? No it won’t. Who are they trying to kid?
Global oil demand is not going to “plummet.” And for the FT to say so is just plain silly, if not irresponsible. OK, I know. There’s an old saying that they teach in journalism schools. “You have to sell newspapers.” But this declaration by the FT highlights the perils of letting a headline-writer do your thinking for you. It’s what I call “arguing a screaming conclusion.” And a wrong conclusion at that.
Oil Demand — Down, Then Up
But let’s move past the headlines. The Financial Times article explains that the World Bank has just issued a new study. The World Bank believes that the world is entering into the toughest economic times “since the Great Depression.” Thus overall world oil demand may fall by about half a million barrels per day in 2009. That’s what the World Bank states in its report.
Only half a million barrels? Heck, the total world demand for oil in the past year was about 87 million barrels per day (a fact that the FT article fails to note). By comparison, the Saudi oil tanker that recently was hijacked off the coast of Somalia held two million barrels of crude oil. And despite this act of piracy oil prices still fell over the next couple of weeks, even without that tanker plying its route across the deep blue seas.
So if the world experiences the next “Great Depression” (Release 2.0, I guess), a reduction in overall oil demand of half a million barrels per day is down in the statistical noise. And what the World Bank is saying about the grim future of the world economy is not the equivalent of “plummeting” demand. At least, not half a million barrels of lower usage.
Built-In Oil Demand
In both the developed and developing worlds, there’s a lot of oil demand built into the economic and social energy system. That’s what modern development is all about. That’s how the system was built over the past 100 years or so. Yes, you can wish that the system were different. You can even try to change the system — and risk collapsing it in the process.
Whatever you do, you can’t change the system very fast. To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, “You live in the world with the energy system you have. Not the energy system you might wish you had.”
So at best, if you want to change things you are looking at a generational shift. If you have a generation. Do we have a generation?
What Will OPEC Do?
Let’s try looking at some different numbers. How about seven million barrels of oil per day? That’s the amount of output that OPEC might have to shut-in if it wants to get prices headed back upwards in to the range of $75 per barrel or so. At least, that’s according to Philip Verleger, a long-time industry player as quoted recently in Platt’s industry newsletter The Barrel.
Current daily oil output from OPEC is about 32 million barrels per day. Verleger thinks that OPEC’s output ought to be more like 25 million barrels per day. There’s the seven million barrel shift. Easy, right? It would be as if Iran, Iraq and Qatar simply stopped exporting oil. How likely is that to happen? Umm…yes. Clearly, Verleger has a radical take on things.
One way or another, can OPEC cut production significantly? Does OPEC have the discipline to manage its own affairs to cut two million barrels, or four million, let alone seven million barrels per day? The issue is that numerous OPEC nations cheat on their production quotas. Hey, they need the money. Thus they lift the oil and sell it. Really, cheating on OPEC quotas is not a problem. It’s a tradition.
What of the Future?
Looking ahead by more than about two years, world oil demand is certainly going to grow. It almost does not matter what we do in the U.S. or Europe. When you look at the numbers of young people who are already born and living and growing up in the developing world, the demand will be there. Many of these young people already have a cell phone and a laptop computer. When they finish school, they will want an apartment and a car.
And at the rate things are going, the energy industry is still under-investing in the necessary systems of the future. Depletion is still ongoing. It gets back to the very basic point that every barrel you lift from the ground leaves one less barrel down there. And the overall global depletion rate is 6% at best. Maybe it’s 8%. It might be 10%. To replace that depletion, the general trend is for the energy industry to go further away, to deeper waters or more remote sites, to drill deeper wells, with hotter temperatures and higher pressures. Those little hydrocarbon molecules are just plain tough to catch.
And keep in mind that nobody can produce oil that has not been discovered. Or developed. Or for which there are no handling facilities. That takes investment, and lots of it. Which requires money and finance, which is in rather short supply just now. So there are just a few years in which the world can reorder the way it does oil, let alone the big picture on energy.
So unless a lot of things happen — pretty soon and in the right sequence, and competently — we’re going to be faced with the prospect that there’s not going to be enough oil to go around. So oil prices are going to head back up. People and governments are going to get desperate over supplies. And much of the usual and predictable bad stuff that you’ve heard before is going to happen. Which gets back to that Financial Times headline. “Plummeting” demand? Really.
I doubt it. The sun is rising on a new day here on the Hemi board. After the past couple of weeks here, I can only begin to imagine......
Exactly there, Ace. It's only a matter of time before somebody on the other side of the pond makes people that are positioned for it a LOT of money. Patience is the key here. Getting in on the game here, IMO, at these prices is a gift. And again, I believe it will be rewarded BIG time.
GLTY and all in DXO.
I got to believe that anyone who is buying right now, or even lower if it continues to slide a bit, in the end is going to walk away with a boatload of cash.
After all, we all know that oil will (wink) never go up again......LOL!!! Yeah, riiiiiiiiight!
GLTA here.
Your welcome and thank you for the way you express your thoughts/points of view on this board. A great example for all.
Nice find on the article, Kels.
Really looking forward to seeing how this type of drilling turns out for Hemi. IMO, we are going to be pretty happy with it.
Great post DSU!
I agree that it is great that there is such a good relationship with Chevron. Chevron must also feel that this is a VERY worthwhile project or they would not be kicking out the extra $$$ to make sure that this project keeps moving forward.
Should be some interesting days here when those well results come out.
GLTY and all DBRM investors here.
That comment is classic material if I have ever read any here on IHUB.
Excellent!!!