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Thanks for your reply today, JPK1. I totally agree with your thoughts on this company. All in due time.
Take care & GLTY,
oilslick
JPK1, I just recieved your PM. Which stock were you refering to in it?
Sorry, but I no longer have PM capabilities to reply back to you with.
TYIA, for your reply.
I'll second that!
For sure, NBR should have never seen 8-9 per share. All shares bought in that range were gifts from above.
Buying on any dips should still be a good move, IMO. IMO, we are going to see this current market have some type of correction before to long. Just not enough "good" news out there to sustain where we have climbed up to from the bottom.
GLTY.
You bet. Should continue to see a nice steady upturn here for a while here the way the oil markets are shaping up.
This baby just keeps blazing along. Up almost $30 since last December.
Just finished reading a heck of a book called, "Game Over" by Stephen Leeb. IMO, it is an excellent read. He has very high praise for an Australian company called Energy Resources (EGRAF).
He predicts this will be one of the fastest growing of all commodity companies out there in this sector. It should certainly be one to keep in mind when all these new nuclear reactors get going.
GLTA
I also have read "Game Over" as well as a couple of other books by Stephen Leeb. IMO, he has pretty much been on target with what he writes.
I will agree with Michael Fitzsimmons that it is a bit curious that he mentions very little about NG. It could be that he figures by the time everyone realizes what is really happening it's going to be too late? Just an opinionated thought there.
If anyone here is looking for a good read that will make you raise your eyebrows a time or two this, IMO, is a good one.
GLTA
It would not surprise me in the slightest.
GLTY.
A very nice, steady rise here the past few weeks. Still cheap, IMO.
GLTA!!!
This is one heck of a company. You'll have more days like this one in the future, IMO. An excellent buy & hold right now, IMO.
GLTY & all here in XTO!
Interesting opinion read on future oil prices:
The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks 12 comments
by: Andrew Butter April 26, 2009
The other day I had an interesting conversation with someone who decides how much a small but significant portion of the world's oil reserves gets pumped.
I asked a question, "So long as the revenue from the oil that you pump is enough to meet the immediate needs of your country, why pump more?"
My point was that as the prospect of running out of easy-to-extract oil starts to hit the collective consciousness, and as demand creeps up (as it will), oil will spike again, and again. So why not just wait?
And yes - sure there are new sources, such as oil shale in Canada and deep oil off Brazil, but in any quantity sufficient to make a difference that stuff costs easily $70 a barrel to get out...and then? There are plenty of people that acknowledge that there is a serious problem (for example here and here) but little is being done apart from denial, except that soon radical action may be necessary – just no one knows when, and when that’s known for sure, it could be too late for some…and bonanza for others.
It could be sooner than later. This financial crisis is bigger than the Asian Crisis, which drove the price of oil down close to $10 (less than $15 in today's prices), yet this time prices only went down to $40 and now in the darkest hour (perhaps), they are back at $50 - that says something.
There is no question that long term oil prices relative to price of just about anything else will go up until a sustained price that allows viable alternatives to be developed is reached; and although there are viable alternatives to make electricity, nothing has been discovered yet that comes close to oil for powering transportation.
And a lot of things depend on transport. Fishing is measured by catch per gallon of diesel, gold prices (possibly) depend on the replacement cost, which is about the cost of hauling rocks around; and recently a French study concluded that's anywhere below $200, electric cars, well..."ca c'est interessant, mais c'est fou!"
This chart illustrates what a dollar of oil that stayed in the ground would be worth today - instead of being pumped and invested1.
click to enlarge
Sure if you had bought gold in 1972, sold it in 1981, then got into treasuries, then into stocks in 1990 or so; sold just before the peak in 2000, then got back into gold, you would have done better than sitting on oil (so long as you controlled the management fees). And perhaps if you had a genius investment guru that smart you might have also bought shares in Citi (C) in June 2008, and then you would have lost a lot.
And if you had gone for a "spread" you could have done much worse, and that's what "sensible" investors do, they go for a spread.
The answer I got surprised me:
"Of course we know that if we keep surplus oil in the ground it will be worth more than we can earn from even the most brilliant investment strategy... but it's not completely up to us".
Take Two: Genius investment advisor sits paralyzed with mouth wide-open for one full minute.
I'd never thought of it like that, but on reflection it makes perfect sense.
The world is heating up, sources of new oil are drying up, yet alleviating the short term pain of expensive oil is of course much more important than guarding against the potential long term pain of global warming and oil spikes...followed by no oil. After all everyone wants to be a responsible citizen of the world, RIGHT? That means that "responsible" producers pump as much oil as they can (at cheap prices).
The reasons that there are more incentives to pump the oil and invest any money that is surplus to immediate requirements, are as follows.
1: The structure of concessions
In most countries where oil was discovered the country was dirt-poor (then), they had neither the financing nor the infrastructure to develop oil. So they signed concessions, most of these concessions allow the company that took the risk to pump as much as they found, and it was massively in their self-interest to do this.
2: The lure of money now rather than money later
Many of the countries where oil was found were ruled by a clique who were more interested in what they could get personally than the needs of the country they controlled; or if not then a clique soon took power.
And the cliques knew that (a) the more oil they pumped the more they could steal and hide away in discrete foreign bank accounts (case-study Nigeria where perhaps 70% of the oil money never came anywhere near Nigeria), and (b) that even with the implicit and sometimes explicit support of their "mentors", the "franchises" were fundamentally unstable (case study the Shah of Iran), so "get it while you can".
That sadly is the story of what happened (and still happens) to a lot of the oil money, and explains why people living in the Niger Delta, which is one of the richest oil fields in the world, scratch a living from the horrendously dangerous job of tapping into pipelines to carry stolen petrol away in jerry-cans (and regularly get burnt to death - if they don’t get shot first). The "mentors" were traditionally happy with the deal; the surplus cash got invested in their own country and if they were smart they could tie up contracts from the oil that got spent in the source country.
There were exceptions of which the most notable is probably Dubai where the Rulers put every cent of the oil money back into the local economy. But still Dubai pumped as fast as it could (and for all practical purposes they ran out five years ago).
The money from the oil was used to build a self-sustaining city from scratch that now runs without the crux of oil. In 1990 the Dubai "non-oil" economy was 15%, the size of Singapore, now it's 40%; the economy in 2008 was sixteen times the size it was in 1990; proof about what can happen if the oil-money stays in the country that produced it, and is invested wisely. Sure you hear a lot in the press these days about the bad investments that were made, but there were a lot more good ones than bad ones, and if President Obama's Stimulus Plan is that effective, well, the US economy might just double in size in the next five years. But then Dubai is a rare exception to a dirty little open-secret.
3: The temptation to be responsible citizens of the world
One thing that always works is flattery, and what could be more flattering than being regarded as a "responsible citizen of the world". The countries that couldn't be "bought" and that didn't want to pump whatever they had as fast as they could, were persuaded that in the interests of "stability" they should try and keep the oil price "within limits". Various arguments support that strategy, of which the most common is that the buyers of oil are "customers" and if oil prices rise too high the "customers" will find other sources of supply, (or might just engineer a regime change to a clique who is more "responsible").
That was the stick, the carrot was that the oil producers could invest the extra money, which they couldn't possibly spend efficiently to develop their own country in the country of their customers.
And so when/if the oil ran out (and oil does run out, as UK is finding out), or whenever a viable alternative was found ("just around the corner - hey if we can put a man on the moon, well, any day now")...then there would be a nice pension scheme to fall back on.
That's nice isn't it, the "mentors" always thinking responsibly and taking the best interests of those less fortunate into consideration!
So how did that play out?
Look at the chart; in 1973 the price of oil suddenly went up by 400% due to the Arab Oil Embargo, by 1983 (after Iran started blockading oil tankers), it was 700% up on ten years earlier. And, this is the thing...the world paid that price.
What happened next was that the huge increase in price spurred a massive explosion of exploration; then as the new supply came on line, prices came under pressure. For a while Saudi Arabia tried to defend the price, in 1985 it was exporting just 22% of it's capacity2, yet everyone else just went on pumping - "get it while you can".
Then Saudi decided they couldn't afford that anymore, and the implicit and explicit cartel collapsed. For the next fifteen years the price bumbled along generally in the range of $20 to $30, as the new supply was pumped as fast as it could be sold to happy customers, interrupted now and then only by wars and temporary interruptions of supply, and now and then by an occasional fall-off in demand like the Asian Crisis.
Then in 2000 when the amount of spare capacity to pump started to run out, OPEC had a go at pushing the price back up, it worked, until 9/11 cooled things down. But they needn't have bothered because by 2004 there was a genuine shortage of supply. This was the first natural shortage (i.e. not created by war or a political decision)...ever.
The point?
There are two; first, the common perception of Americans that oil producers have been holding the world ransom, and that OPEC can control the amount of oil that is pumped, is completely false. The only times oil has spiked much above its average marginal cost of production is when there was a war that constrained supply - until now.
Second; with the price of oil where it is now and where it is likely to go, the number of countries that can afford to ask the question - "is it better to leave the oil in the ground and wait, than to pump? will go up, a few oil exporters were happily balancing their budgets at $20 oil, as the price goes up the number of countries in that situation will rise.
Since the exception of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, oil producers have never held the world ransom, but now the most obvious and logical step for many of them to take, is to do just that.
For many years at least one oil producer has had more money flowing in from oil than it could possibly spend, some producers that were heavily in debt ten years ago, are now debt-free, there are now at least seven counties who can easily afford to ask that question, in aggregate these seven account for 40% of the world's oil reserves. Theoretically they could shut off the taps for five years and go to sleep, and they would not suffer in the least.
In 1973 these countries were dirt-poor, the oil-embargo was about principles, the 400% price rise was a surprise; now they have better infrastructure (paid for by oil), excellent social services, and in many ways better government, than the West; they do not need the money now, they can afford to wait until the money is worth much more tomorrow.
So what should they do?
OPTION A: Encourage, facilitate and contribute to the destruction of the planet and Global Warming and the risk of a catastrophic shortfall, by selling oil too cheap, and invest the money in toxic assets in USA or in not so well regulated shares in China?
OPTION B: Be "be responsible" and cut back, and force the world to live up to its stated goals on Global Warming, and mitigate the risk of a catastrophic shortfall?
Or perhaps Option A is being "responsible" and Option B might be construed as well, something akin to terrorism?
$100 oil today (if you believe the US CPI numbers) is the same price (in America) as the world swallowed at the height of the Iran embargo of Iraq, this represents in real terms the maximum the world ever paid for oil, until last year.
But 1981 was an accident, and then there was plenty of oil to be found and the oil producers needed the money. Now there's no spare capacity, and it will take three years at least to put on new pumping capacity (many wells are running dry and you need expensive injection technology to squeeze the last drops out), and five to ten years to bring on stream any significant capacity from oil shale or deep water Brazilian Oil. But they don't need the money now, they can afford to wait.
That's the "nightmare" to look forward to, when the oil producers go "Green", and say they want to help "Save the World".
So where will oil go after the recession fades away? Well, forget about "market economics", the decision on where it will go will be taken by about five people. Most likely it will go to more than $120 a barrel, after the Asian Crisis with a little help from OPEC it tripled from $10 to $30 so this time it hit $40 x 3 = $120. Whether it goes to $200 or more will depend on the decisions those five people make.
The Structure of demand
That's the supply part of the equation - historically it's hardly what Adam Smith would call a "market" where people as a whole (rather than as a clique) acted in their own best long-term interests, but that's the reality. On the demand side until China and India started to buy oil, there was an assumption that the "arrangements" were solid.
There were a few "hiccups"; the first oil shock in 1973 provided the producers with a clue about what the real "fair-value" of oil actually was, and the Iran/Iraq War confirmed that the customers would pay a lot more if push came to shove, but happily after the initial period of angst the producers were persuaded to "be more responsible" (i.e. pump more oil at rock bottom prices).
The Architecture of America's Demand
America consumes 24% of the world's oil; China currently consumes 9%3, but for the Chinese the decision is whether to cycle to work or drive, for many Americans the decision is whether to drive to work, or not work.
Few Americans realize that the whole architecture of their country was predicated on the assumption that oil would forever be plentiful and cheap, (a good account of this can be found in Intown Living - A Different American Dream4).
In 1956 the Interstate Highways Act was passed, the effect was that 90% of the cost of major roads in USA was financed by the Federal Government. This piece of legislation was heavily influenced by the auto manufacturers and their lobbyists, the "carrot" was that the subdivisions in the suburbs was where the American Dream could be found, and the kicker - every American family could own two or three cars and keep them in nice big garages. So roads were built to transport people from the suburbs to the cities, and the suburbs exploded.
The shift to the suburbs was further encouraged by The Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Administration brought in after World War II which only underwrote new houses, meaning that the rehabilitation of older city property could not benefit from the same financing.
And tax codes meant that city residents paid the same for utilities whereas the cost of providing these is much higher in the suburbs - so city dwellers subsidized the suburbs. Soon the rush to the "countryside" started to hollow out the cities, and as revenues available in the cities dropped, the funds for supporting public transport and security dropped too; then riots, crime and drugs took over.
I lost the reference, but once I read a tragic book about how a mother tried to stop a crack-cocaine epidemic in her neighborhood, but she was black, and the police did nothing. Black kids killing black kids - who cares? The level of security you get in USA depends on where you live and how much you pay in taxes; it's a free market economy.
The Interstate Highways Act favored roads, big ones - freeways cutting through the old surplus-to-requirement neighborhoods, not public transport, which received no Federal subsidies.
And the destruction of public transport was helped along by stealth, for example a consortium led by General Motors (GM) called "National City Lines" bought up streetcar lines, to dismantle them5. Zoning also played a part splitting the work-place from residential, today in Chicago and Detroit, 60% of the working population live more than ten miles from their workplace4.
Thus the heart of many American cities died, and was replaced by suburbs, in the most extraordinary piece of social engineering in the history of mankind.
Much of Europe was spared from this bizarre Brave New World. If you are an ordinary person and you live in Paris, Lyon, London, Berlin, Amsterdam or Rome, you live in an apartment, or a terrace house, and you can walk and take public transport. And you don't (generally) get mugged; and your kids can walk to their friends' houses and play in public parks. It is perfectly possible to live without cars, but only if the architecture works.
The architecture of American cities, with a few exceptions, is not designed for that. Americans spend 10% of their time walking or cycling (for transportation), Italians spend 50%4; no wonder Americans are fat.
And no wonder the first oil-shock when prices went from $10 to $50 was perceived in USA as an attack on the very core of the American Dream. No wonder either that when Europe decided to put a tax on petrol and subsidize energy efficiency, increasing the pain, America just brazened it out.
The politics of raising fuel costs in USA are hugely more sensitive than in Europe, for many Americans a doubling or quadrupling of the cost of fuel would have a huge impact on their pockets. According to one study, in 1999 on average, residents of Atlanta and Houston spent 22% of their income on transportation4, and that was when oil was $16 a barrel. And it's the poor people who suffer, an American worker probably spends about as much on transport as it costs to employ three Chinese - and that's "progress"?
Good things don't last forever
Everything worked fine when oil prices were low, then the darned Chinese and Indians started wanting to buy a bit of the "good life" (and live in suburbs), and the whole "arrangement" started to unfold.
This coincided with a reduction in the influence that America had as the nation with the big stick, partially thanks to "darn liberals" taking power, partially because of the collapse of the Soviet Union as a world power which made the "big stick" argument less persuasive (and took the wind out of the idea that you had to chose between Communism or the Free World), and partially because of the realization that the USA would never use nuclear bombs to effect regime change (and the cost of doing it any other way as George Bush found out in Iraq is prohibitively expensive). So people like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hugo Chavez can snub their noses at the guardian of the big stick, and get away with it.
Where next?
Whenever the world economy recovers, demand for oil will increase and prices will rise. The best advance warning of this will be when oil production starts to rise; currently demand is down and cutbacks in production are keeping the price up. OPEC only works when production capacity is close to demand; it's only when prices and production rise can the end of the recession be called.
Where the oil price goes from there will depend on whether five men decide they want to subsidize ordinary Americans so they can live out their dream of Revolutionary Road and have barbecues in their yards on weekends, and drive nice big gas guzzling cars.
The opportunity
These days some people are talking about bringing back the Gold Standard so as to prevent governments from creating bubbles, and generally so that they start to behave a little bit more responsibly. Like all "good" ideas (for example, the PPIP) the debate is how the stuff should be priced, and there are two camps (aren't there always).
In 1971 gold was fixed at about $40 an ounce, so if you believe the CPI numbers a reasonable "fair-value" for gold today would be about $200 an ounce, that's one idea. The other idea is the total amount of money in the world should be divided by the total amount of gold, that gives a price of about $9,000 an ounce (if I got my sums right - anyway it's a big number), which gives an idea of how far the world moved along from the Gold Standard idea.
How about an Oil Standard?
Adam Smith's idea for a reserve currency was something that was indestructible, rare to the point of being broadly irreplaceable, and has no major industrial use.
OK, OK...no I'm not losing it here, I do know that oil does have a rather important industrial use and also that it's not indestructible (but thanks for reminding me). But that's not the point, the point is (a) that the world CAN decide a fixed "reserve" price for oil and (b) there are a lot of good reasons why it should.
1: Why can it decide?
It can decide because a significant part of the world's oil reserves are owned by people who would happily trade the extra benefit they could get from playing hardball and making sure that they squeeze the optimum price of the oil they own, in exchange for stability and sustainability. Many have done that for years anyway.
Granted there would have to be an agreement on how much oil nations could sell and police against under-cutting, and the price would have to be set high enough so that there was an incentive to use it sensibly (just as there need to be rules so that credit is used sensibly, but that's another subject). Agreements like that CAN work if they are properly policed - OPEC works...from time to time, but this agreement would need to be an agreement between the buyers and the sellers (not that the buyers don't already lobby OPEC furiously).
2: Why must it decide?
Until it is clear what the price of oil will be, there is no chance that viable alternatives to oil can be found - and until that happens all the talk about Global Warming is just hot air.
As a kicker to such an agreement, the oil producers should be given the option of investing the money that they can't possibly spend in their own countries, on power-plants in consumer countries that don't create greenhouse gases, with guaranteed off-take agreements. Nuclear is probably the only viable large-scale option right now although wind does appear to be gaining; the agreement could include for oil nations to divert a portion of the considerable sums of money that they give out in aid (no it doesn't go to fund terrorism), by investment in power generation in poorer nations.
And the consuming nations could be forced to commit to phase out power-plants that create greenhouse gasses. The point here is that what kills carbon neutral technology is (a) economies of scale are too small now (b) it is capital intensive; so use the oil in the ground as security.
So what price?
Well, I reckon $100 a barrel would do the trick - that's a nice round number.
Thanks for the offer but at the moment I'm pretty well stocked up on extra sacks. I'll be sure and let you know if my supply starts gets low though. LOL!!!
GLTY & thanks for the laughs,
oilslick
You can count on that Soapy Bubbles. Ya got no chance of winning if you don't get up off the mat......empty bag in hand of course! LOL!!!
GLTY,
oilslick
(chuckling & shaking my head)
If I did I wouldn't be here on IHUB and that's for sure! LOL!!!
I will use this stock just to look back on so when I think I'm getting a little to full of myself that I can see just how "brilliant" I really am.
(sigh) It sucks to be me! LOL!!!
Got looking at a past investment sheet and it recommended this as a buy and hold at .90 in 2001. What a call!
Been a nice ride here since March, eh fellas?
Newsweek and “Cheap oil forever”
by Kjell Aleklett
Published Apr 20 2009 by ASPO International
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48712
Newsweek’s cover declares that we shall have ”Cheap Oil Forever”. Furthermore, on their hompage, www.newsweek.com they promise that we shall be told ”The truth about oil” and the person who will tell us is Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Of course, I want to know who this oracle is and, with the help of Google, I discover Ruchr Sharma as a smiling young man in the prime of his life. With great interest I examine the article "If It’s in the Ground, It Can Only Go Down", the article that will show me the truth that my research group strives daily to find, that truth that the entire world seeks.
As I began to read the article I was struck by the thought, ”I have heard this before” and a memory of the cover of the Economist from March 1999 with the headline, ”Drowning in Oil” forced its way into my consciousness. That was ten years ago when we consumed 27.6 billion barrels per year. Back then, the flow of cheap oil was meant to grow and prices were to drop by half from $10 per barrel. Of course, the oil continued to flow and last year we consumed 31.2 billion barrels. But it was not $5 per barrel that we paid or even $50. Instead, we approached $150 per barrel when the market crashed.
That higher prices affect consumption can be seen most clearly in the USA where consumption of oil was highest at the beginning of 2007 after which it began to decline. But the decline was not sufficient so that, ultimately, the doubling of the price to the consumer was too much for our unstable economic system to tolerate. Some consumers could not manage the increased energy prices, the higher food prices and the higher costs for accommodation. The rest of the world was not affected as severely because the value of US dollar fell and many other nations had higher energy taxes. But like a snowball that begins rolling high up and becomes larger and larger, the problems in the American economy accelerated until they dragged the rest of the world down with them. It is interesting to note that the crash now and in 1979 came when the cost of oil exceeded 7% of global GDP.
During the last 10 years we have consumed 300 billion barrels of oil and that oil is gone forever. If it had been copper, iron or some other metal that we had used then the possibility of recycling would have existed. But oil cannot be recycled. Although the economy has crashed and steel production has fallen by 40%, oil consumption has fallen by only 3%. When idling, the world’s economic motor needs 30 billion barrels of oil per year. The reason for this is that the number of people in the world is increasing every year and these additional people must have food. Today, there is no food produced without oil.
As individuals we need 2500 kcal of energy in food per day and this means that the world’s population needs 7100 TWh per year. Expressed as the equivalent amount of energy in oil this is 610 Mtoe or 4.2 billion barrels of oil. If one remembers that part of grain production is seed for sowing the following year’s crops then the world’s annual agricultural production constitutes a net food energy amount of 9400 TWh. This means that there is currently just enough food energy for the world’s population. However, for agriculture to produce 1000 kcal of food energy it requires 1600 kcal of oil equivalents on the farm. When that food has finally reached the dinner table in the USA the energy that was required has grown to 7500 kcal and most of that was from oil. This means that a large part of the world’s oil production is required just to prevent starvation.
What is it that makes economists such as Ruchir Sharma adopt an authoritative voice and cite the playwright Arther Miller, ” An era can be said to end when its basic illusions are exhausted."? It seems the fact that the price of oil has more than halved during a few months has transformed him into an illusionist with an illusionist’s dreams of the future. The concept of a peak of world oil production is treated as something that should already have happened even though it is well documented that we at ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, have always said that peak oil is estimated to occur sometime between 2010 and 2018.
King Hubbert analysed US oil production in the 1950s and concluded that the production would reach a maximum between 1966 and 1970. In 1970 the illusionists/econonists of that era dismissed King Hubbert as a prophet of doom and declared that he was wrong because oil production in that year was the highest ever. The reality is that one produces most oil when one is at the peak of production. 1970 was the peak year for the USA.
It is production from individual oil fields that collectively comprises global production. The reality is that it is depletion and decline that determine production from these individual fields. The International Energy Agency, IEA, and we at Global Energy Systems at Uppsala University have shown that production of crude oil from currently producing fields is declining by 6% per year, or approximately 4 million barrels of daily production. This reality is not part of Ruchir Sharma’s future vision. This reality did not exist in 1979.
The main players in the oil industry have become the real illusionists as they try to hide reality. In the 1930s it was the large oil discoveries in Texas that must be concealed and the illusionist then went by the name of the Texas Railroad Commission. Then it was the gigantic oil discoveries made during the 1950s, 60s and 70s and the illusionists’ art of concealment was to play with various types of reserve classification. The master among the illusionists is BP who, even today in its BP Statistical Review, tries to make us believe that the greatest volume of oil was found during the 1980s although we who work with reality know that this is false. The only people that BP deceives are economists and it is this illusion that entrances Ruchir Sharam causing him to declare, “This long-term price decline is due mainly to the constant discovery of new fields and greater energy efficiency, making nonsense of the idea that the world is rapidly running out of oil.”
The reality is that we now find far less oil than we consume. During the last 10 years we have not discovered new oil to replace the 300 billion barrels we have consumed. The trend for the next 10 years is that we will find less than 100 billion barrels of oil. The question is whether this together with the remaining reserves will make it possible for us to consume 300 billion barrels in the next 10 years. If we cannot then we have reached Peak Oil and our reality will not be the illusion projected by Newsweek. Rather, it will be something that we all need to cope with. Most importantly we must manage to produce more food with less oil.
If we remove the illusionists’ veil and accept reality it is our hope that we can build a future for all. If the illusionists continue to hold sway they will certainly continue their efforts to conceal the future reality of a depleted world that we need to understand.
(This article is published by ASPO International, www.peakoil.net, and the article can be published as printed or on the web by making this reference. Translations to other languages are also accepted. An original Swedish version that is translated to English by Michael Lardelli can be found at Aleklett’s Energy Mix.)
Kjell Aleklett
President of ASPO International, Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas, www.peakoil.net.
Professor in Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Sweden, www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Nice to see that this held up so well in such a downer of a over all market day. Looks good!
Your welcome.
Excellent! Thank you for the info and the prompt reply.
I have a feeling that both the pro and con Hemi people that frequent here are going to be holding you to that REAZO. LOL!!!
You may want to prepare yourself for a few more "comments" besides my mine. (wink)
This baby has really looked good the past couple of trading days.
Sounds good. Would you happen to have a ballpark guess as to how long from this point it will take to get the rig to the drill site? TYIA.
Subject: God's Accuracy
God's accuracy may be observed in the hatching of eggs.
For example:
-the eggs of the potato bug hatch in 7 days;
-those of the canary in 14 days;
-those of the barnyard hen in 21 days;
-The eggs of ducks and geese hatch in 28 days;
-those of the mallard in 35 days;
-The eggs of the parrot and the ostrich hatch in 42 days.
(Notice, they are all divisible by seven, the number of days in a week!)
The lives of each of you may be ordered by the Lord in a beautiful way for
His glory, if you will only entrust Him with your life. If you try to
regulate your own life, it will only be a mess and a failure Only the One
Who made the brain and the heart can successfully guide them to a
profitable end.
God's wisdom is seen in the making of an elephant.. The four legs of this
great beast all bend forward in the same direction. No other quadruped is
so made. God planned that this animal would have a huge body, too large to
live on two legs. For this reason He gave it four fulcrums so that it can
rise from the ground easily.
The horse rises from the ground on its two front legs first. A cow rises
from the ground with its two hind legs first. How wise the Lord is in all
His works of creation!
God's wisdom is revealed in His arrangement of sections and segments, as
well as in the number of grains.
-Each watermelon has an even number of strips on the rind.
-Each orange has an even number of segments.
-Each ear of corn has an even number of rows.
-Each stalk of wheat has an even number of grains.
-Every bunch of bananas has on its lowest row an even number of bananas,
and each row decreases by one, so that one row has an even number and the
next row an odd number.
-The waves of the sea roll in on shore twenty-six to the minute in all
kinds of weather.
All grains are found in even numbers on the stalks, and the Lord specified
thirty fold, sixty fold, and a hundredfold - all even numbers.
God has caused the flowers to blossom at certain specified times during the
day, so that Linnaeus, the great botanist, once said that if he had a
conservatory containing the right kind of soil, moisture and temperature,
he could tell the time of day or night by the flowers that were open and
those that were closed!
Thus the Lord in His wonderful grace can arrange the life that is entrusted
to His care in such a way that it will carry out His purposes and plans,
and will be fragrant with His presence.
I HOPE YOU FIND THIS AS FASCINATING AS I DID....
Yup, guess you'll just have to do it again (+$$$), eh? LOL!!!
I have no doubt that you'll get your chance.
GLTY & A here.
This may be a day late but none the less it is still a great message. Blessings to all, oilslick
Subject: Pine Trees Know Easter!
I have seen this but never really noticed it before.
Pine Trees Know Easter!
Last April on a Sunday we took one of our "nowhere" drives, my husband was
quietly driving a back road. I was occupied in the front passenger seat watching the scenery.
I noticed out of the corner of my eye that my husband was straining to look
out my window. This startled me, since his eyes should have been on the road
in front of him. I asked him what he was looking at out the windows, and
he quietly replied,"Nothing." His eyes went back to the road in front of him.
After a few minutes, I looked over at my husband and noticed a tear. I
asked him what was wrong. This time he told me, "I was just thinking about
Pop and a story he had once told me."
Of course, because it had to do with his Pop I wanted to know the story, so
I asked him to share it with me. He said, "When I was about 8 years old, Pop
and I were out fishing and that's when he told me that the Pine trees know
when it is Easter."
I had no idea what he meant by that, so I pressed him for more information.
He continued on... "The Pine trees start their new growth in the weeks
before Easter -- if you look at the tops of the Pine trees two weeks before,
you will see the yellow shoots. As the days get closer to Easter Sunday,
the tallest shoot will branch off and form a cross. By the time Easter
Sunday comes around, you will see that most of the Pine trees will have
small yellow crosses on all of the tallest shoots."
I turned to look out the window and I couldn't believe my eyes. It was a
week before Easter, and you could see all of the trees with the tall yellow
shoots stretching to Heaven.
The tallest ones shone in the sunlight like rows of tiny golden crosses.
MAY GOD BLESS YOU AS YOU WATCH FOR THE CROSS AND MAY IT SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT IT WAS UPON A CROSS THAT JESUS DIED. HE DIED FOR YOUR SINS AND MINE. HAVE YOU ACCEPTED THAT?
HAVE YOU ACCEPTED HIM AS YOUR LORD AND SAVIOR? IF NOT, NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO ACCEPT HIM. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FREE GIFT HE GAVE YOU, THE GIFT OF ETERNAL LIFE.
PLEASE FORWARD THIS ON AND PRAY THAT GOD WILL USE THIS TO HELP OTHERS UNDERSTAND THE TRUE MEANING OF CHRIST SURRENDERING HIS LIFE ON THE CROSS ,THAT YOU AND I, THROUGH OUR ACCEPTANCE OF HIM, SIMPLY BY PRAYING AND ASKING FOR FORGIVENESS WOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE HEAVEN OUR NEW HOME. MAY GOD TRULY BLESS YOU THIS EASTER SEASON!
Subject: The seed.
An excellent lesson here...
The Seed*
A successful business man was growing old and knew it was time to
choose a successor to take over the business.
Instead of choosing one of his Directors or his children, he decided
to do something different. He called all the young
Executives in his company together.
He said, 'It is time for me to step down and choose the next CEO. I
have decided to choose one of you. 'The young executives were shocked,
but the boss continued. 'I am going to give each one of you a SEED
today - one very special SEED. I want you to plant the seed, water it,
and come back here one year from today with what you have grown from
the seed I have given you. I will then judge the plants that you
bring, and the one I choose will be the next CEO.'
One man, named Jim, was there that day and he, like the others,
received a seed. He went home and excitedly, told his wife the
Story. She helped him get a pot, soil and compost and he planted the
seed. Everyday, he would water it and watch to see if it had grown.
After about three weeks, some of the other executives began to talk
about their seeds and the plants that were beginning to grow.
Jim kept checking his seed, but nothing ever grew.
Three weeks, four weeks, five weeks went by, still nothing.
By now, others were talking about their plants, but Jim didn't have a
plant and he felt like a failure.
Six months went by -- still nothing in Jim's pot. He just knew he had
killed his seed. Everyone else had trees and tall plants, but
He had nothing. Jim didn't say anything to his colleagues, however.
He just kept watering and fertilizing the soil - He so wanted the seed
to grow.
A year finally went by and all the young executives of the company
brought their plants to the CEO for inspection.
Jim told his wife that he wasn't going to take an empty pot. But she
asked him to be honest about what happened. Jim felt sick
To his stomach, it was going to be the most embarrassing moment of his
life, but he knew his wife was right. He took his empty pot to the
board room. When Jim arrived, he was amazed at the variety of plants
grown by the other executives. They were beautiful --In all shapes and
sizes. Jim put his empty pot on the floor and many of his colleagues
laughed, a few felt sorry for him!
When the CEO arrived, he surveyed the room and greeted his 20 young
Executives.
Jim just tried to hide in the back. 'My, what great plants, trees, and
flowers you have grown,' said the CEO. 'Today one of you will be
appointed the next CEO!'
All of a sudden, the CEO spotted Jim at the back of the room with his
empty pot. He ordered the Financial Director to bring him to the
front. Jim was terrified. He thought, 'The CEO knows I'm a failure!
Maybe he will have me fired!'
When Jim got to the front, the CEO asked him what had happened to his
seed - Jim told him the story.
The CEO asked everyone to sit down except Jim. He looked at Jim, and
then announced to the young executives, 'Behold your next
Chief Executive Officer!
His name is Jim!' Jim couldn't believe it. Jim couldn't even grow his seed.
'How could he be the new CEO?' the others said.
Then the CEO said, 'One year ago today, I gave everyone in this room a
seed. I told you to take the seed, plant it, water it,
And bring it back to me today. But I gave you all boiled seeds; they
were dead - it was not possible for them to grow.
All of you, except Jim, have brought me trees and plants and flowers.
When you found that the seed would not grow, you substituted another
seed for the one I gave you. Jim was the only one with the courage and
honesty to bring me a pot with my seed in it. Therefore, he is the one
who will be the new Chief Executive Officer!'
* If you plant honesty, you will reap trust
* If you plant goodness, you will reap friends
* If you plant humility, you will reap greatness
* If you plant perseverance, you will reap contentment
* If you plant consideration, you will reap perspective
* If you plant hard work, you will reap success
* If you plant forgiveness, you will reap reconciliation
* If you plant faith in God , you will reap a harvest
So, be careful what you plant now; it will determine what you
will reap later.
'Whatever You Give To Life, Life Gives You Back'
Subject: Recall Notice!
This is really a good one, love it, right on the mark. Our society is sinking fast and
we need to read & understand this one.
RECALL NOTICE: The Maker of all human beings (GOD) is recalling all units manufactured, regardless of make or year, due to a serious defect in the primary and central component of the heart.
This is due to a malfunction in the original prototype units code named Adam and Eve, resulting in the reproduction of the same defect in all subsequent units. This defect has been technical terminated "sub-sequential Internal Non-Mortality”, or more commonly known as S.I.N., as it is primarily expressed.
Some of the symptoms include:
1. Loss of direction.
2. Foul vocal emissions
3. Amnesia of origin
4. Lack of peace and joy
5. Selfish or violent behavior
6. Depression or confusion in the mental component
7. Fearfulness
8. Idolatry
9. Rebellion
The manufacturer, who is neither liable nor at fault for this defect, is providing factory- authorized repair and service free of charge to correct this defect.
The Repair Technician, JESUS, has most generously offered to bear the entire burden of the staggering cost of these repairs. There is no additional fee required.
The number to call for repair in all areas is P-R-A-Y-E-R.
Once connected, please upload your burden of SIN through REPENTANCE procedure. Next, download ATONEMENT from the Repair Technician, Jesus, into the heart component.
No matter how big or small the SIN defect is, Jesus will replace it with:
1. Love
2. Joy
3. Peace
4. Patience
5. Kindness
6. Goodness
7. Faithfulness
8. Gentleness
9. Self Control
Please see the operating manual, the B. I. B. L. E. (Believers' Instructions Before Leaving Earth) for further details on the use of these fixes.
WARNING: Continuing to operate the human being unit without correction voids any manufacturer warranties, exposing the unit to dangers and problems too numerous to
list and will result in the human unit being permanently impounded. For free emergency service, call on Jesus.
DANGER: The human being units not responding to this recall action will have to be scrapped to the furnace. The SIN defect will not be permitted to enter Heaven so as to prevent contamination of that facility. Thank you for your attention!
GOD
P.S. Please assist where possible by notifying others of this important recall notice and
you may contact the Father anytime by 'Knee mail'.
I'm with all of you here. Any shares bought in the current range is legalized grand larceny. VERY good profits to be made on this one.
GLTA,
oilslick
I can go along with that. Looks like a great buy and hold here. GLTY.
"I hope everyone got their .03s"
No kidding! Some pretty good news coming out on this one here. Could get pretty interesting.
GLTA!
AIN'T
He was just a little boy,
On a week's first day.
Wandering home from Bible school,
And dawdling on the way.
He scuffed his shoes into the grass;
He even found a caterpillar.
He found a fluffy milkweed pod,
And blew out all the 'filler.'
A bird's nest in a tree overhead,
So wisely placed up so high.
Was just another wonder,
That caught his eager eye.
A neighbor watched his zig zag course,
And hailed him from the lawn;
Asked him where he'd been that day
And what was going on.
'I've been to Bible School ,'
He said and turned a piece of sod.
He picked up a wiggly worm replying,
'I've learned a lot about God.'
'M'm very fine way,' the neighbor said, 'for a boy to spend his time.'
'If you'll tell me where God is,
I'll give you a brand new dime.'
Quick as a flash the answer came!
Nor were his accents faint.
'I'll give you a dollar, Mister,
If you can tell me where God ain't.'
Another very interesting read. Thank you once again.
This may be of interest to a few of you here. GLTA:
Market Analysis: Deepwater, Ultra-Deepwater Newbuilds for 2009 and Beyond
by Phaedra Friend Rigzone Monday, March 30, 2009
An emerging industry trend, many exploration and development projects have been put on the backburner as companies wait out the current economic downturn. Whether oil and gas companies can't get financing due to the credit crisis or the projects are no longer commercially viable because of the lower price per barrel, the immediate result is the same: some projects are being postponed – or even worse – cancelled.
Fortunately, deepwater and ultra-deepwater drilling projects have not been as affected as onshore drilling and other E&P arenas. A key reason for this is deepwater and ultra-deepwater projects require such long lead times to both obtain a rig and develop the project.
Deepwater, Ultra-Deepwater Newbuild Rigs
According to data gathered from RigLogix, there are currently 88 deepwater floaters that are being constructed for delivery after January 2009. All rigs in this category are rated for more than 6,500 feet of water, and some are being built to work in waters that measure up to 12,000 feet deep.
Of the 43 drillships either being built or on the books to be built, 27 have been contracted before construction has been completed. Furthermore, of the 45 newbuild semisubs, 36 have received contracts prior to completion.
Delineating deepwaters as those measuring between 4,000 and 7,000 feet deep and ultra-deepwaters as those measuring more than 7,000 feet deep, of the 88 there are only two newbuild floaters that are rated for only deepwaters. The other 86 newbuild floaters are capable of drilling in ultra-deepwaters.
Both of the deepwater newbuilds, the Norbe VI semisub and the Schahin I semisub, are being built for waters measuring 6,561 feet deep. Ordered in August 2006, the Norbe VI is due to be delivered in March 2010, and the Schahin I is due in September 2009. Both rigs are contracted to work for Petrobras in Brazil.
SOURCE: RigLogix
Halted Construction, Financing Problems
Completion of two ultra-deepwater rigs, including one semisub and one drillship, has been stopped. Both of the rigs were contracted to Petrobras.
Construction of the MPF 01 drillship was stopped because the rig builder, MPF Corp. Ltd., filed for bankruptcy. Currently, three rig brokers are attempting to sell the partially built rig. Scheduled for completion in January 2010, the drillship has a three-year contract with Petrobras, and the contract has not yet been terminated.
Also Scorpion has scrapped the construction of a yet unnamed semisub rated for water depths of 7,873 feet. Despite the fact that an LOI exists on the rig with Petrobras, Scorpion could not obtain financing to build the semisub. Although steel has not yet been cut on the rig, the completion date for construction was originally slated for December 2012.
Additionally, Sevan Drilling is having problems financing two of its contracted semisubs. Construction of the Sevan semisub contracted to ONGC to work in India by October 2010 and the Sevan Brasil semisub contracted to work for Petrobras in the Gulf of Mexico by October 2011 has been delayed. According to Sevan's fourth quarter 2008 report, the company is not going to spend money on the construction of the two rigs until certain criteria is met, including a longer contract with ONGC, a later delivery date and 80% finance backing.
Delivery Dates
Currently, there are 101 drillships and semis worldwide that are capable of working in waters deeper than 4,000 feet; so the additional 88 newbuilds will change the offshore exploration and production playing field substantially. When can the market expect to see these rigs?
Most of the floater newbuilds being delivered after the start of 2009 were contracted in 2006, 2007 and 2008. In both 2006 and 2007, 25 semisubs and drillships were ordered; and in 2008, 33 ultra-deepwater newbuilds were ordered. No deepwater or ultra-deepwater rigs have been ordered yet in 2009.
Of this category of drilling rigs, there are 14 newbuilds scheduled to be delivered in the first half of 2009 and eight newbuild floaters expected to be completed in the second half of 2009. The most of any, the first half of 2010 should see 17 newly built rigs hitting the market, and an additional 11 rigs will be delivered in the second half of 2010. Fourteen newbuilds are being delivered in the first half of 2011, and 11 rigs are scheduled to finish construction in the second half of 2011. In 2012, there are 11 rigs scheduled to be delivered in the first half of the year and two rigs expected in the second half of the year.
More than half of the newbuild floaters are contracted. Sixty-three of the newbuild rigs are currently under contract, while 25 of the rigs being built have not yet been signed on for work.
SOURCE: RigLogix
Geographic Hot Spots
Looking at the newbuild market of deepwater and ultra-deepwater floaters, obvious geographical hotspots emerge, namely offshore Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.
Coinciding with Petrobras contracting the most deepwater and ultra-deepwater newbuild drilling rigs, Brazil is expecting the most newbuilds once construction is complete, with 27 of these rigs scheduled to start offshore the South American country. (An upcoming rig analysis piece will focus specifically on Petrobras' dominance in the deepwater and ultra-deepwater rig market – for both newbuilds and already existing rigs.)
Coming in second, the Gulf of Mexico is expecting 18 newbuild rigs, which includes 15 in the US GOM and three within the Mexican borders of the gulf. Newbuilds are also slated to be delivered to Angola, India, Australia, China, Norway and Russia.
Three contracted newbuilds have not yet been assigned a geographical region for work. Hess has not announced where the Stena Forth drillship will be working upon receipt of the rig. ExxonMobil has not yet announced where the Deepwater Champion will be working, and Shell has not announced where the Bully 2 will be drilling.
"my feeling is that he also tried to distance himself from unsolicited promotion that's been takin place on certain websites."
I'm with bdahl385 on this one. I wouldn't mind seeing where these "hot dog stands" have been set up on these "certain websites" myself.
Please pass them along when you have a moment & TYIA for your efforts.
Heck of an article there, futrcash. Thank you for sharing it.
RAHN: The next oil shock: Price of oil soon will soar!
Price too low to supply demand over time
Richard W. Rahn
Thursday, March 26, 2009
The price of oil soon will soar again. The present price of a barrel of oil, $50 or so, is below the price needed to meet current demand for a sustained period of time, and it is well below the price needed to meet global demand as the world economy rebounds.
In addition, with the U.S. Federal Reserve System greatly expanding the money supply - which will continue because of the explosion in government spending - the dollar is falling against other currencies; and given that global oil is priced in dollars, the price of oil will rise in dollar terms, just as it did two years ago.
About 65 percent of the demand for global oil can be supplied at a price of $35 per barrel. Another 20 percent of demand can be supplied at a price of $35 to $60 per barrel, but the remaining 15 percent will only be supplied over the long run at prices of $60 to perhaps $130 per barrel. Oil, like all commodities, is priced at the margin, which means the price of all oil demanded by the market is equal to the price that producers can get for the last barrel of oil they sell.
It takes considerable time to greatly increase oil production, and it also takes time to reduce production. Despite the global recession, oil production capacity is only slightly above demand, so that any significant supply disruption - a war in an oil-producing area, pipelines being blown up or tankers sunk, etc. - will almost immediately create a supply shock, causing the oil price to soar again.
Because of the drop in oil prices during the last eight months, high-cost production facilities are being shut down, including low-output wells, some offshore production, Canadian oil sands, etc. When the oil price shoots back up, it will take time to get these production facilities back on line.
Oil prices will almost certainly be much higher in real terms (inflation adjusted) during the next 15 years because world energy demand is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent between now and 2030. More than 80 percent of the increase in energy demand during the next two decades is expected to come from China, India and the Middle East.
Low-cost oil production is declining sharply, as the old easy-to-produce fields are being rapidly depleted. There are still huge potential oil supplies, but most of it will be in very expensive, deep-sea areas, or in oil sands (Canada) or oil shale (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah), all of which are much more costly to produce. Biofuels are also expensive and compete with food for land on which to produce them.
If suddenly it were announced that a miracle electric battery - one that could power a full-sized automobile at high speed for more than 300 miles and could be quickly recharged - had been developed, what impact do you think it would have on the price of gasoline next week? The answer is probably none because it would take several years for the manufacturers of automobiles to switch over completely to battery-powered ones, and then another decade or so before most of the existing stock of automobiles would be battery powered.
In the long run, improved battery technology will probably reduce the demand for liquid fossil fuels, but even under the most optimistic scenario, the dependence on oil will last a couple or more decades.
As vehicles eventually move from liquid fossil fuels to electricity, the demand for liquid petroleum will drop, but the demand for electricity will greatly increase. The environmentalists and many in the political class like to talk about “renewables” meeting the demand. A nice notion, but at best it is not going to happen for decades. As the chart shows, wind, solar and geothermal are less than 3 percent of total energy supply. They all still need to be heavily subsidized because they are not economical and probably will not be for many years.
Hence, even at high-growth rates, they will only supply a small percentage of total energy needs in the next two decades.
When oil prices soared a couple of years ago, the Bush administration moved to open up government lands and certain offshore areas for more oil exploration and production. Officials in the new Obama administration are now in the process of again locking up these areas to prevent oil production.
If the Obama administration is right in its forecast that the economy will be growing again by the end of this year - which is probably even more true for the world economy - the demand for oil will be rising rapidly again. Yet much production has been shut down because of the recession, and potential future supply inside the U.S. is being restricted by government action.
The result should be obvious - gasoline at the pump will be at least $3, if not $4 or more. Americans will still be hurting as a result of the recession, so many of them will be most unhappy to see the prices soar again.
Given that many in the political class seem to think the long run is the next five minutes, they do not see or want to see this tsunami coming. Many politicos will try to blame the high prices on “greedy oil companies” or laggard automobile executives rather than to look in the mirror and see the shortsighted demagogues whose policies led to the mess.
Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth
Subject: Magnolia Flowers
> I spent the week before my daughter's June wedding
> running last-minute trips to the caterer, florist, tuxedo
> shop, and the church about forty miles away.
>
> As happy as I was that Patsy was marrying a good Christian
> young man, I felt laden with responsibilities as I watched
> my budget dwindle . .
>
> So many details, so many bills, and so little time. My son
> Jack was away at college, but he said he would be there to
> walk his younger sister down the aisle, taking the place of
> his dad who had died a few years before. He teased Patsy,
> saying he'd wanted to give her away since she was about
> three years old!
>
> To save money, I gathered blossoms from several friends who
> had large magnolia trees. Their luscious, creamy-white
> blooms and slick green leaves would make beautiful
> arrangements against the rich dark wood inside the church.
>
> After the rehearsal dinner the night before the wedding, we
> banked the podium area and choir loft with magnolias. As we
> left just before midnight, I felt tired but satisfied this
> would be the best wedding any bride had ever had! The music,
> the ceremony, the reception - and especially the flowers -
> would be remembered for years.
>
> The big day arrived - the busiest day of my life - and
> while her bridesmaids helped Patsy to dress, her fiance Tim
> walked with me to the sanctuary to do a final check. When we
> opened the door and felt a rush of hot air, I almost
> fainted; and then I saw them - all the beautiful white
> flowers were black. Funeral black. An electrical storm
> during the night had knocked out the air conditioning
> system, and on that hot summer day, the flowers had wilted
> and died.
>
> I panicked, knowing I didn't have time to drive back to
> our hometown, gather more flowers, and return in time for
> the wedding.
>
> Tim turned to me. 'Edna, can you get more flowers?
> I'll throw away these dead ones and put fresh flowers in
> these arrangements.'
>
> I mumbled, 'Sure,' as he be-bopped down the hall to
> put on his cuff links.
>
> Alone in the large sanctuary, I looked up at the dark
> wooden beams in the arched ceiling. 'Lord,' I
> prayed, 'please help me. I don't know anyone in this
> town. Help me find someone willing to give me flowers - in a
> hurry!' I scurried out praying for four things: the
> blessing of white magnolias, courage to find them in an
> unfamiliar yard, safety from any dog that may bite my leg,
> and a nice person who would not get out a shotgun when I
> asked to cut his tree to shreds.
>
> As I left the church, I saw magnolia trees in the distance.
> I approached a house...No dog in sight. I knocked on the
> door and an older man answered. So far so good . .No
> shotgun.. When I stated my plea the man beamed, 'I'd
> be happy to!'
>
> He climbed a stepladder and cut large boughs and handed
> them down to me. Minutes later, as I lifted the last armload
> into my car trunk, I said, 'Sir, you've made the
> mother of a bride happy today.'
>
> 'No, Ma'am,' he said. 'You don't
> understand what's happening here.'
>
> 'What?' I asked.
>
> 'You see, my wife of sixty-seven years died on Monday..
> On Tuesday I received friends at the funeral home, and on
> Wednesday . . . He paused. I saw tears welling up in his
> eyes. 'On Wednesday I buried her.' He! looked away..
> 'On Thursday most of my out-of-town relatives went back
> home, and on Friday - yesterday - my children left.'
>
> I nodded.
>
> 'This morning,' he continued, 'I was sitting in
> my den crying out loud. I miss her so much. For the last
> sixteen years, as her health got worse, she needed me. But
> now nobody needs me. This morning I cried, 'Who needs an
> eighty-six-year-old wore-out man? Nobody!' I began to
> cry louder. 'Nobody needs me!' About that time, you
> knocked, and said, 'Sir, I need you.'
>
> I stood with my mouth open.
>
> He asked, 'Are you an angel? The way the light shone
> around your head into my dark living room...'
>
> I assured him I was no angel.
>
> He smiled. 'Do you know what I was thinking when I
> handed you those magnolias?'
>
> 'No.'
>
> 'I decided I'm needed. My flowers are needed. Why,
> I might have a flower ministry! I could give them to
> everyone! Some caskets at the funeral home have no flowers.
> People need flowers at times like that and I have lots of
> them. They're all over the backyard! I can give them to
> hospitals, churches - all sorts of places. You know what
> I'm going to do? I'm going to serve the Lord until
> the day He calls me home!'
>
> I drove back to the church, filled with wonder. On
> Patsy's wedding day, if anyone had asked me to encourage
> someone who was hurting, I would have said, 'Forget it!
> It's my only daughter's wedding, for goodness'
> sake! There is no way I can minister to anyone today.'
>
> But God found a way. Through dead flowers.
>
> 'Life is not the way it's supposed to be. It's
> the way it is. The way you cope with it is what makes the
> difference.'
>
> If you have missed knowing me, you have missed nothing.
> If you have missed some of my emails, you may have missed a
> laugh. But, if you have missed knowing my LORD and SAVIOR,
> JESUS CHRIST, you have missed everything in the world.
>
> May God's blessings be upon you.
I'm currently reading "Game Over". Very interesting book so far. (Only up to chapter 4).
I've read some of his other stuff and he seems to do pretty well with his picks, IMO. He was also on CNN this past weekend. Anybody here happen to see the show Stephen Leeb was on by chance?