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OT Michael ... re Asia ... Good article ... I've seen similar articles .. many more focussed on China. Problem seems to be that China has real problems stemming from massive unemployment and growing social unrest (and a new class society anomoly) due to the artificially low returns they receive for their exports as they have a fixed currency based on the USD. As the USD depreciates .. other Asian countries are thus artificially dissadvantaged throught the Yuan:USD link ... so under a depreciating dollar they're thrice dissadvantaged .. one their credit to the US is reduced, two/three their export values/competiveness too. Some economies are switching to the Euro as their base, some gold ... but IMO without increased US interest rates what will keep the USD high ... and if interest rates increase the US housing market collapses ... some similarity in a simplistic sense to Japan ten years ago. Russia has changed from its reliance on the USD ... the trend has already started.
Regards
Hmmm? Inside day for LOOK after being out of cycle and on a break early = Hold Another 2pm market ramp ... something will surface later ... the QQQ chart candlestick points to a potential turnaround for a few days and a small rally ... watch for news ... many gold stocks have also put in very nice turn signals ... watch the Nikkei/Asia to see if this market ramp is all BS.
Hmmm? LOOK may be breaking away from the trend amongst its peers? Will report after close ... if so ... very significant in this day of RED where they sold those good, reliable, trustworthy econo numbers again. LOL.
Traden ... you long LOOK??? Regards
TG ... LOL ... good fun ... got to have a laugh every now and then.............................
http://www.ozestock.com.au/MessageView.asp?PostID=262249&Symbol=LOK
WMart - 204 Insider Sells last six months totalling 4.24M shares .....
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/W/WMT.html
ha ha !
LOOK .. spike down gap fill at open ... interesting ... shorts in control! Are they true shorters or insto accumulators ... we should now know by close ... interesting!!! So much for the CFO significance. Regards
OT Traden ... just got the call .. will follow up. Hmmm ... I see the chart has a big gap above and now it's trading over the BB MA, I think I'd short it if its going to close $1.24 or lower. I just processed the request to withdraw my capital from ATrade ... only playing with profits now ... that way I feel safest. While PFE is in the green I feel that this market retrace is "managed" ... haven't seen a "wall of red" that would have me overly worried yet. Regards
LC ... nice talking with you in a pleasant manner. I'd rather not talk about my trading here ... best I just stick to TA for the sake of keeping emotions out of it. Regarding bear articles ... well I guess we have Warren Buffet, your ASX MD fellow, and all the big insider tech sellers in the bear corner ... and you in the bull. Hmmmm
http://money.cnn.com/2003/06/04/news/companies/inside_sell/
You seem to like Thomson so I guess you'll believe them.
And as recently as last week ... in advance of the INTC ramp.
StreetSmartReport.com:
"What's with corporate insiders? Can't they see the market going up? It was reported today (Fri. 8/22/03) that so far this month insiders have sold $35.50 of their company's shares for every $1 of shares they bought. Insider Research at Thompson Financial considers it bearish for the market when the insider buy/sell ratio reaches 20:1. The ratio has now been above 20:1 for a rare four months in a row.
It's even happening with the likes of Steve Balmer, CEO of Microsoft, who had NEVER sold ANY of his Microsoft shares until a couple of months ago. And Michael Dell, who sold 8.4 million shares of Dell stock a couple of months ago, and now we learn he sold another 10 million shares last week."
I guess this is a really a bullish indication. We all know that when the "weak hands" (like Balmer and Dell) are selling out, the smart money (Yahoo! INTC messageboard bulls) are accumulating.
LC ... you seem so sure that everyone is out to manipulate things that you seem to be overlooking what is really happening. Please please assume the above is posted with no hidden agenda ... just information to help you with your investments.
If so ... favour returned.
And yes I like a few golds and posted about stocks like CMR in Oz when they were 12 odd, before it ran to 20+. Don't hold any right now but do hold a few others.
Regards
OT LC ... that was a very general wishy washy reply of yours LC. Prey tell me, what part, specifically, of the data provided you have proof or could at least reason, was incorrect?
Regards
Michael .. that's how TA should be always seen ... sometimes it can almost predict news (positive or negative) but similarly "out of the blue" type news (as per last week) will shake the charts ... so, IMO, what happened last week was the LOOK SP advanced too far at the top of a market cycle on FA based "news out of the blue". Another Example - When you get a run-up into earnings and the stock gets waaaay overbought ... you know the pre-earnings SP is assuming the best case scenario, any less and she'll drop like a rock ... which is what happens with this stock time n time again ... that's when TA is more predictive.
IMO, right now, the LOOK SP looks to have gotten a little ahead of itself and a good case for 38% retrace to $3.25 can be made if the market holds up. If it bases from here down to $3.13, even $3.06 for a bit (say another ten to twenty odd trading days ... its a sure sign that the next leg should be a rather big pop on news.
If it does go up from here on no news (IMO low probability) .. there's a gaping gap in the US chart that needs filling below!!!
But remember the problem we may get is "expectation of an ideal MSN deal" priced into the SP ... so should anything less than ideal occur ... huge drop! Obviously other positive news regarding third party contracts and there's a similar upside potential.
Maybe up maybe down ... but generally up after a small retrace would be ideal (stable market allowing).
Regards
LC/smugs/Bulls ... please read the attached article down to golds and explain to me the flaw in the logic that the US economy is in real trouble. Forget the golds bit ... the article is posted to provide but one bearish opinion the US economy to balance the infomercial driven popular media version that so many here seem to believe ... (then there's the (real) unemployment, retirement scheme whitewash (GE can bury their shortfall legally within a missrepresented PE, GM etc too), the non-expensing of options within reported PEs of the majority of US corps (not LOOK it would appear), and now the potential for their home finance industry to collapse if there is any foundation to the concerns about accounting irregularities within FMac etc)
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=936
Please overlook the gold info ... not the reason for the post.
Classic "shooting Star" for LOOK Friday on increased volume ... VERY high likelihood of backfill in US to $3.25 or next level down $3.13 (ALL brokers/instos would see this signal IMO ... TA rules .. hit the sell buttons)... LOK at 25c seems a foregone conclusion without news to rescue it.
Many kind regards.
I will aim to post what I think will happen to LOOK (long term) before 8pm your time Mon ... why don't you post your predictions sometime between now and then ... What I want to try to guess is end Sept price ... end year price ... end March 04 price. (Sort of TA and guesswork for me.)
Others should post too ... just a bit of fun ... but I won't post unless you have.
E Sept
E Year
E Mar
smugs ... yawn ... Facts are TA is working, FA is hindering. Trading is another matter, st$t happens. I understand you need broker newsletters to tell you when to sell, yet the very same day you SAID that nothing had changed with the 10-Q.
smugs .. don't worry about me .. you get it wrong time and time again. I would run out of space to list all the times .. from wrongly interpreting analysts calls to missunderstanding the market, to fundamental ramping when the stock is so obviously overbought to drawing SP "lines in the sand" that can never stand the test of time.
I'm off in the forest for a day and a half ... I will aim to post what I think will happen to LOOK (long term) before 8pm your time Mon ... why don't you post your predictions sometime between now and then ... What I want to try to guess is end Sept price ... end year price ... end March 04 price. (Sort of TA and guesswork for me.)
Others should post too ... just a bit of fun ... but I won't post unless you have.
E Sept
E Year
E Mar
smugs ... actually I failed the TA ... the TA was fine but I didn't have the nerve to hold it over a night in the US ... so ... actually ... I bt a few in Oz instead ... missed about 3/4 of a cent in cross terms ... still made a profit and will do so again shortly... but that's not the point ... I'm a useless trader some times ... I acknowledge that .. and I WILL improve the more I can learn to trust a stocks TA ... That's why its a learning process. But the point is TA is working!!! You can't deny that! And remember I said sell the first time you ramped 27c, I said $3.90 would get hit when you said NEVER, I said $3 BY end Sept ... who the hell are you to criticise me!
Updated a little softer ... good mood tonight ... but I have to ask why the constant digs .. when you're so often wrong on the TA stuff and the TA is getting pretty close these days (takes time to weed out the emotions and often you just can't).
s & m ... s = yes m = I'm not a LOK regular, there are many better Oz traders than me for predicting LOK ... my stab would be 26.5c, I guess, if I had to make one. I would like to hear from others as to what they think out of interest. I understand you take a half cent off US cross fair value ??? Is that right?
PS ... TS ... hmmmm ... if only a few regulars could REALLY work together and REALLY balance FA and TA, imagine! Trouble is its always too hard to overlook the emotions on a stock like this so probably best that I just stay 100% numbers and you guys take what you like from it, I will do similarly with FA. BTW ... a "typical" outcome for LOOK Mon would/should be a retrace to fill the gap or another doji, unlikely to spike higher given the market (without +ve news IMO)
TG ... Interesting Oz LOK numbers ... for real???
Hi smugs .. will LOOK be over $3.90 at end Sept?? eom
Mike ......................................................
I'm pleased you're doing well. As for me ... I am simply aiming to improve my trading strike rate ... which could improve if I simply stuck to the numbers and forgot emotions. The numbers on LOOK are surprisingly accurate time and time again, so I am slowly learning to forget FA and stick to TA ... its always a challenge. The market "emotions or sentiment" are often missguiding ... given time this will pass ... but I can inform you that IMO, LOOK now needs to close over $3.65 Monday or it will inevitably wander back to fill the gap created, IMO, which would actually be a good thing.
Regards
Nope .. Mike is OK, I believe he knows I respect his opinions, apologies if a one word response seemed to suggest otherwise. To elaborate ... all these econo figures suggesting econo revival, IMO, are pure PR. See todays INTC for example ... sucked in so many mum and dad investors yet IMO, the pros were selling all day. Aparently Q3 INTC figures are always better than most ... they were just ramped to suit the occassion. Now if the market can't advance on that PR !!!
Regards
One market reviewers opinion.
So, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has raised its third quarter revenue guidance by about 5 percent. To listen to the media early Friday morning, you’d think it was a revelation of near biblical proportions.
Intel’s projected revenue median for the quarter went from $7.2 billion yesterday to $7.6 billion today. The share price moved almost 10 percent to $28.55 at the bell, Friday. According to all the talking heads and analysts --who can mobilize with frightening speed—the good times, have returned. I guess the fact that INTC’s share price has almost doubled since this past March is merely a matinee. I smell a trap.
Those.eom
Freddie Mac Board Told to Remove CEO
Regulators Cite Parseghian's Role in Improper Accounting; Directors' Response Is Unclear
By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, August 22, 2003; Page E01
Federal regulators have told Freddie Mac's board of directors it must replace Gregory J. Parseghian as the company's chief executive because of his involvement in improper accounting practices at the mortgage
Those here who understand what this means are forewarned, blind longs - tired of talking to bricks ... sorry.
Regards
diligent ................................................
Without a "recovery" the market is in trouble, the US retirement industry (which needs a recovery as thats whats ALREADY factored in!!! GE, IBM, INTC et al) needs a recovery, therefore their health industry needs a recovery, and round and round you go! Look back on today one, two and twelve months hence and see if it turned out to be true or whether it turned out to be more "smoke and mirrors" and confirmation that corporate USA is corrupted to the core and this passage of time was just a short term BLOW OFF TOP!
IMO ... trade the direction but don't believe the lies!
Regards
AUSTRALIAN Stock Exchange chief Maurice Newman has painted a pessimistic view of the US economy, warning business to be prepared for another global retreat.
"I don't think one should underestimate the impact of a significant decline in the US economy and how that would cascade to Europe and Japan," he said yesterday.
"I hope people will reflect and not simply accept without question what is constantly being fed up to us as being that 'she'll be right'.
"We are, in my view, in uncharted waters."
Mr Newman told a function in Brisbane the US, European and Japanese markets were all fragile with increasing debt levels and decreased savings.
In the US, despite growing unemployment, consumers continued to spend, pushing the current account deficit out to an annualised $US548 billion ($833 billion) - a record 5.2 per cent of gross domestic product.
And the pressure would only increase on both sides of the Atlantic as populations aged and relied more on pension funds. Mr Newman said he was concerned businesses would take an eventual market recovery for granted.
"My only concern is that people take it for granted it will happen and do not do what is required to prepare their organisations for what might be some cold winds ahead," he said.
"I am sure all organisations can do things which will stand them in good stead if conditions do deteriorate."
He said that while the market was encouraged by positive results coming out of the US in the last quarter, deeper analysis of the results showed they were not as strong as previous recoveries and were less likely to be able to shake-off the long-term downturn.
He further warned of the increased "spin" emerging from Wall Street, which he described as symptomatic of the market bubble of the 1990s.
However, he said Australia was in a much stronger fundamental position than the three major economies.
"We are not as indebted," Mr Newman said.
Hiya Tex ... I know how you feel. They way I see it there's a large resistance level at about $3.75 ... its a beauty daytrader now for a few days but not one to be messed with cause any remuneration adjustments will be DOWN and that'll be the signal for the pros to short this one again .. just the nature of the US market.
Gas in the US is $1.65 ... a new high ... there's more and more layoffs announced every day ... foreclosures are increasing to near time highs ... and if the US can see WMD they can certainly fudge their books to get their Pres in again ... smoke and mirrors IMO. Next post from an Oz about the US market fyi. Regards
Gotta love the USA ... $3.65 now .. based on that one line LOL.eom
Fair enough ... AH trading now past $3.34 ... sets itself up for a great daytrade in the US tomorrow ... pop then drop to fill the gap then run ... these are the best times to trade ... when the public mindset is "OK here we go" If it doesn't fill the gap in the US .. remember this point on the chart well. Going to be fun fun fun in the sun sun sun!!! Waaahoooooooo!
The lemmings will pile in on this news, then get driven over the cliff when the "agreed" restructured remuneration deal is announced ... sell the news! You watch ... all this news has now done is confirm the resumption of normal trading patterns ... YUM!!! LOL.
Next technical level $3.33/4 eom
LOL ... two things for all longs to remember ... nobody ever went broke taking a profit, and there will always be another opportunity somewhere. Remember ... sell the news!!!
Good news ... Separately, Payne said MSN is sticking with paid-inclusion partner LookSmart Ltd. (LOOK) , which allows Web site operators to pay to have more of their pages included in Internet searches.
LC ..........................................................
I see YHOO has made a higher high (recent) LOOK too, sure did trade through my key $3.15 level, but it is all market related (new 12 month QQQ high!!! - just pure BS). The last ones into markets at the top are the ones who get most burned, but you got to trade the momentum so I'll wait and see how the close works out - early days and LOOK hasn't traded through the premarket $3.20 price yet - another doubtful signal. Regards
Out and waiting to re-enter ... sold daughters educational shares too. See YHOO settled at $31.99 at close ... can't decide if it's up or down so best stay away. Market - QQQ's up AH, possible double top .. possible blow off market top ... for me LOOK at $2.88 is the next decission. It may run to the 50% Fib level $3.34, personally I doubt it as I saw a fair bit of serious shorting going on towards close.
Risk/reward IMO says .. C A S H.
Regards
$3.14 corresponded to a topping out YHOO over $32 ... whether it can carry on depends whether S&P holds 1001 I guess. If not .. perfect technical turn = $2.88 here we come. I'm out of my traders and relieved!
YHOO now running ... perhaps the 50% Fib level does come into play ... (Traden ... if you're around ... my old buddy with a W&X is looking intruiging ... rotated $$$ LOL)
Regards
Ollie ... yep I even got a few for my daughters in Oz yesterday ... although there're storm clouds brewing on the markets horizons ... got to be a percentage play here IMO.
Leppard ... I figured either 38.2% being roughly $3.15 if the market is sad (as I expect), or 50% being $3.33/4 (I was using $2.61 - $4.04 range) whatever. If $3.15, logical (2down) retrace to 50% would be $2.88 ... presto! Then leg three ... 161.8% would take it exactly to $3.75 ... the BBand MA!!! This is my preferred formula ... but you know how it goes .. maybe up maybe down LOL Needs news about early/mid next week to achieve this. Regards
50% Retrace of the down leg = $3.33 eom
To Mr TA enquiry ... my hotmail acct is down at the mo otherwise I'd reply in person ... look at Elliot waves (in general ... as per discussion earlier), Fibonnaci levels (search should do the trick), but most of all http://www.signalwatch.com/
And just get to understand the methodology of "maybe this or could be that". Learn about chart patterns (stockcharts education) and very importantly some candlestick analysis.
If you begin with this lot you will start to see the obvious signals and will make the odd trade or two from TA. Once you get good at recognising certain "events" let those come to you while you learn and practise others.
The secret of TA appears to be to know when its saying very little V's when its screaming something at you.
LOOK TA here is saying oversold, further down, but hasn't said buy yet ... I couldn't help myself! LOL. But I suspect we're within 10% of the bottom NOW so what the heck, and then there's the news issue. So risk reward must be pretty good here given the assumption that the shorts have stopped shorting but the longs haven't started to buy yet.
Regards
smugs ... LOL ... nice to see you have a sense of humour on a day like this ... the very time its best to have one. Naaaah I'll stick around a bit now ... I was going to come back and pester you in Sept when it hit $3, so todays action only catalysed the inevitable!
I like LOOK as a stock, like the sector as a growth sector, but believe this is one highly manipulated stock, manipulated by the very people everyone goes on about being shareholders .. institutions! They would have shorted against their holdings today AND be accumulating cheapies from Mums and Dads too!
You're OK smugs .. just wish you'd not get into SP and econo stuff ... statements like NEVER $3.90 just get my back up as there must be people out there that trust you and you're wrong to say such things. And I bet you serriously lightened up recently .. you can't be as bullish as you make out ... no-ones that stupid are they?
Regards
riccosuave .. neat name! Re Elliot wave stuff .. yep I'm beginner in this ... if you have time can you tell me what areas of the theory didn't work for you in practise. I generally just use the three cycle retrace concept (rather than being strict about 5 wave cycles) as I'm a firm believer in the Dead Cat Bounce in all retraces. And any reasonable stock seems to retrace to Fib expectations, there or thereabouts The (rough) projected bottom of this move was initially $3.06 and I did see some support there for while this morning ... I figure, rightly or wrongly, $3.06 was about where the shorts ran out of steam so we wallow till news good or bad hits, completely at the whim of market sentiment ... ($1.79 was only a worst case scenario that I figured was a non-resign of MSN option).
Make sense? Tell me more about your Elliot experiences ... working very well for me of late BTW, very very well (but not to the letter of the theory!)
Regards