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Re: Michaelirish post# 8801

Tuesday, 08/26/2003 7:38:27 PM

Tuesday, August 26, 2003 7:38:27 PM

Post# of 11156
OT Michael ... re Asia ... Good article ... I've seen similar articles .. many more focussed on China. Problem seems to be that China has real problems stemming from massive unemployment and growing social unrest (and a new class society anomoly) due to the artificially low returns they receive for their exports as they have a fixed currency based on the USD. As the USD depreciates .. other Asian countries are thus artificially dissadvantaged throught the Yuan:USD link ... so under a depreciating dollar they're thrice dissadvantaged .. one their credit to the US is reduced, two/three their export values/competiveness too. Some economies are switching to the Euro as their base, some gold ... but IMO without increased US interest rates what will keep the USD high ... and if interest rates increase the US housing market collapses ... some similarity in a simplistic sense to Japan ten years ago. Russia has changed from its reliance on the USD ... the trend has already started.
Regards