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Thursday, August 21, 2003 6:45:32 PM
"I don't think one should underestimate the impact of a significant decline in the US economy and how that would cascade to Europe and Japan," he said yesterday.
"I hope people will reflect and not simply accept without question what is constantly being fed up to us as being that 'she'll be right'.
"We are, in my view, in uncharted waters."
Mr Newman told a function in Brisbane the US, European and Japanese markets were all fragile with increasing debt levels and decreased savings.
In the US, despite growing unemployment, consumers continued to spend, pushing the current account deficit out to an annualised $US548 billion ($833 billion) - a record 5.2 per cent of gross domestic product.
And the pressure would only increase on both sides of the Atlantic as populations aged and relied more on pension funds. Mr Newman said he was concerned businesses would take an eventual market recovery for granted.
"My only concern is that people take it for granted it will happen and do not do what is required to prepare their organisations for what might be some cold winds ahead," he said.
"I am sure all organisations can do things which will stand them in good stead if conditions do deteriorate."
He said that while the market was encouraged by positive results coming out of the US in the last quarter, deeper analysis of the results showed they were not as strong as previous recoveries and were less likely to be able to shake-off the long-term downturn.
He further warned of the increased "spin" emerging from Wall Street, which he described as symptomatic of the market bubble of the 1990s.
However, he said Australia was in a much stronger fundamental position than the three major economies.
"We are not as indebted," Mr Newman said.
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