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Re: Michaelirish post# 8727

Monday, 08/25/2003 5:32:07 AM

Monday, August 25, 2003 5:32:07 AM

Post# of 11156
Michael .. that's how TA should be always seen ... sometimes it can almost predict news (positive or negative) but similarly "out of the blue" type news (as per last week) will shake the charts ... so, IMO, what happened last week was the LOOK SP advanced too far at the top of a market cycle on FA based "news out of the blue". Another Example - When you get a run-up into earnings and the stock gets waaaay overbought ... you know the pre-earnings SP is assuming the best case scenario, any less and she'll drop like a rock ... which is what happens with this stock time n time again ... that's when TA is more predictive.
IMO, right now, the LOOK SP looks to have gotten a little ahead of itself and a good case for 38% retrace to $3.25 can be made if the market holds up. If it bases from here down to $3.13, even $3.06 for a bit (say another ten to twenty odd trading days ... its a sure sign that the next leg should be a rather big pop on news.

If it does go up from here on no news (IMO low probability) .. there's a gaping gap in the US chart that needs filling below!!!

But remember the problem we may get is "expectation of an ideal MSN deal" priced into the SP ... so should anything less than ideal occur ... huge drop! Obviously other positive news regarding third party contracts and there's a similar upside potential.

Maybe up maybe down ... but generally up after a small retrace would be ideal (stable market allowing).

Regards