Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
ELYM - acquisition news out and trading over 4. Did you get filled a while back? I sold half already around 4.10.
Canadian bond ETFs: I've been using CBIL.TO but lower yield than SGOV.
There's all those high interest savings account ETFs too: CASH.TO, CSAV.TO, etc. I've avoided those ones though.
DTI - I glanced at it yesterday stopped doing DD once I saw the SDPI acquisition was ongoing. I figured that would weigh on it. There's another acquisition besides SDPI too. With these acquisitions, it's always hard to gauge whether the market will like the adjusted numbers or just look at the unadjusted numbers and not care (I suspect integration costs, etc. are coming).
There's an arbitrage play if you think the SDPI acquisition goes through, since with SDPI you either get $1.00/share of .313 shares of DTI (which implies you can buy DTI at ~2.90 right now via SDPI).
TAYD - hell of a board pick, I sold more at $49. Still have some, but I think it's getting close to fair value given the decline in backlog from ~$35M to $30M this quarter and EV/EBITDA being around 10 recently. Won't be surprised if it continues to climb though.
ELYM - I didn't notice until your post. No PR, or anything on the news front. Just the SEC filing. The company being acquired is this (which is no detail at all...):
"representatives of the Issuer and a development stage private biotechnology company that is majority-owned by funds affiliated with RA Capital (“Tango”)"
So another biotech company. After they issue shares, they say the enterprise value will be ~$110M, so "Tango" is worth $20M (according to them). And then ELYM had $107M cash on hand (at the end of last Q at least). So could be trading for cash.
Price action probably all depends on the PR they put out and what type of biotech the acquisition is.
SEER - thanks for recs, some others I haven't seen mentioned:
TSBX (selling today/yesterday)
ELYM
CMRX
Looking at XLO too, but seems shadier.
These have decent/high insider ownership, none or only 1 reverse stock split, aren't based in China, and have low P/C (as you always look for)
MITQ - agree on financials, but the pump potential here is tough to ignore (share structure, cash, AMEX listing, etc.).
MITQ - joined you and others here in the low 80s the last 2 weeks. risk-reward seems good, although you never know and they could report a stinker tomorrow morning
ESP - yes nice catch, which is interesting b/c they were roughly forecasting 10.3M quarters through the end of the year based on backlog timing.
They are still looking at two ~10M quarters coming, which should be nice YoY comps. From 10Q today:
"It is presently anticipated that a minimum of $20.6 million of orders comprising the December 31, 2023 backlog will be filled during the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 subject, however, to the impact of the factors identified above"
However, there's some fuzziness there with that statement you highlighted from the PR.
ESP - big quarter (0.72 EPS) and revs (10.3M), backlog still at 84M at end of Q2 vs. 87M at end of Q1
earningsPR
I rarely short, but when I do I buy SARK. It's been my most consistent winner on the short side. Like hweb said, not sure if Cathie Woods is a great indicator, but to each their own.
TAIT - some clown on stocktwits mentioned the Taiwan election? No idea if true. I was eyeing it this week as well
TAYD - definitely better than I expected. I was just thinking the other day how it would be nice if they did something with the cash, so no complaints! And yes, looks like they've still got ~24M in cash ($8/share as you say)
Will continue to hold my decent sized position.
ADFJF/DRX-TO - I've owned it about 5 different times between early 2019 and mid 2022. Made out just fine on it, but have been surprised by the move.
The fundamentals have always been solid. The trading is typically bizarre, although it may improve with increased attention (HMM-A.TO may be a comparable stock story; no one gave a crap until they did).
Recollecting my past DD (that's likely very rusty, since it's from 2019 to 2022):
-Quebec-based companies often trade worse than companies based elsewhere in Canada on the TSX
-There's no doubt they are shareholder friendly
-I seem to remember that one of their main end markets is fabricating for warehouses (I think they do it for one or several of the big guys - Home Depot, Amazon, etc.)
-The new manufacturing equipment/line at the Terrebonne facility appears to have been a game changer in terms of efficiency. Previously the Montana facility seemed to be operating better
-They do fabricate stuff for sexier end markets, like stadiums, etc.
-I had trouble resolving how steel price affected them, but my main takeaway was that the surge in steel prices in 2021/2022 wasn't helpful and may have caused the stall out in the stock price. They may be benefiting now from lower prices the last several quarters or better negotiating tactics on their contracts
PPIH - thanks for alert, bought some at 7.60
SSNT - no idea what to think of that release. I'm out, but congrats to those holding!
MPTI - sold the last 20% of my original position I had around 36 today. I won't be surprised if it goes to $50 though. I'd consider re-entering in the 20s though with that great last Q
FONR - definitely, chased and rebought in high 14s.
SSNT - nice trading, Q was okay, but the charge sucked. I bailed at the open in the 3.40s
NSYS - great call! hope you were able to sell in the 10s AH. I had no position
AMRK - another victim of Costco selling their own gold bars ;) jk. no idea
cnbc story
SSNT - I like this crap into earnings next week. The silly merger with the bitcoin company fell through, which was a positive for me.
FONR - flipped out at 13.91 for the quick gain. Will look to re-enter, but wouldn't be surprised to see it keep climbing.
GEODF/GEO.TO - you see the ongoing mess? No position for me. Not sure what price I'd be interested.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2023/30/c4349.html
MPTI - funny enough I considered selling the last small amount I had yesterday, but instead got to enjoy the plunge. No idea who was buying up around $30.
FONR - bought the falling knife. Sure, they suck at investor relations, but it's the cheapest price to tangible book it's been in forever. EV/EBITDA is something like 3. Even if they only do $20M EBITDA next fiscal year, it's still EV/EBITDA < 4. Reminds me of GENC last year. Apparently, they aren't using their buyback much considering the price action...still had over $7M outstanding on it as of 5 months ago (or they blew through it and now it's not in effect anymore).
TMGEF/TMG.V - same, kept just 20% of my original position. In the past, they've frequently failed to deliver on expectations. Even if you're optimistic (say they can do 3M in EBITDA), it's trading at 10-12 forward EV/EBITDA at this point, which is pretty rich.
Russell Microcap was down ~20% last year too, while NYFANG was down 40% (NDX down ~30%).
Part of me wonders if the underperformance of IWC and IWM is because of the sheer amount of crap stocks that were added to the index during the COVID bubble (garbage IPOs galore, but had the market capitalization to be included).
IWM - down nearly 2.5% as of now. steep pullback in small caps before the rest of the markets rolled over. any news?
BSQR - congrats!! Have a good amount. Also shady that volume was up today...but that's how it goes with these sometimes
TMG.V / TMGEF - I agree, I still think it's pretty cheap. Still holding 1/2 my original position. My general experience with the TSX Venture and stocks price around TMG.V is that there's usually some kind of pump that happens near the top. The fundamentals plus the pump is what I'm waiting for (no guarantee the pump will come of course).
If you haven't seen it, ceo.ca is probably the best for monitoring social chatter and news on Canadian exchanges now.
MPTI - sold another 25% at 25.00, gonna let the rest ride
MPTI/ESP - still have 1/2 my MPTI position, curious to see how carried away folks get. Bidding on ESP, but have been more conservative than you (lower in the 14s) because I already own a bunch.
PFIE - bought on the way down here at 2.01 and 2.13. Think this selloff is overdone.
TRT - it's true the $4s would be quite a fall. These small microcaps cycle within the ups and downs of the overall market, often out of sync with the overall market. The way I view TRT is that's it's on the upper bound of its microcap cycle ($4 would be an approximate lower bound and much more attractive to someone less risk averse, like myself). From what I can tell, the timescales of these microcap cycles can be a few weeks or years, often unpredictable.
Some of the cycles are due to the cyclic nature of the businesses (e.g. ULBI), institutional overselling/overbuying, etc. More recently, there's been way more cycles attributable to low float pumps/social media (e.g. AWX, SCKT), etc.
Yourself and others on this board are some of the best at buying and selling microcap cycles. As you often say, "I own a bunch of this shite" (or something to that effect) having bought a bunch of a stock when no one gave a crap or the financials were trash (but cyclical).
TAYD - solid EPS of 0.52 and revenues of close to $10 million. Drawback is that there was a bit of a backlog decline, but it's comparable to Q3 last year. I do have orders to sell what I bought back around $22. I think the backlog decline will keep a lid on it. Still plan on holding 40% of my original position.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-devices-announces-first-quarter-114500081.html
TAYD - looks like I was wrong and it'll be tomorrow morning (they haven't had an afternoon release since 2019). I don't love Friday ERs, but that's not dissuading me from holding here.
TRT - the stock has a bit of a following on social media sites from what I can tell, plus there's the pump angles that KIK mentioned. From a fundamentals perspective, the cash position is reassuring to investors like us. So I think that's what's playing out here. I'd be a buyer in the 4s I think. And of course, wish I would've held those 5.60s from yesterday!
TAYD - added a small bit back at around $21 today. Nice entry on your part. Earnings are almost assuredly tomorrow morning (maybe they slip to Friday, but I doubt it). Hard to find a cheaper stock (potentially training at <5x EV/EBITDA going forward)
TRT - got antsy, bailed at 5.82, was expecting a harder bounce