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Orangeman,
That's why I said he needs to produce an audited earning statement from a qualified auditor to establish credibility. He could probably say he had a billion dollar contract and not effect the stock unless it came from a name we know and was verified by a similar release from them.
As for today, if we had an audited quarterly report that showed even a small loss on some real sales I believe we'd be worth far more than we are today, but again the key is audited. FH boasting that sales are up 1000% means nothing as we have no idea from where. Up 1000% from a penny is only a dime.
Gary
I certainly cannot blame investors for being skepticle of anything FH says, but if some day audited earnings done by a credible accounting firm comes along, then our faith in FH could be restored.
Ultimately it's about developing earning. I frankly don't care if the earnings come from selling basic ceramic components which must be completed by others, or if the company develops a complete device which is sold publically under the Cetek label. The reality is, they appear to be developing capabilities that fall in between, they can build partially completed components, but not yet a complete product.
As I said, it doesn't matter how they earn money, what's important is earning it, and reporting it in a credible way.
Gary
Jo,
I agree, it's very hard to distinguish the scams from the real companies when you look at the pinks, especially pinks that are selling for under a penny.
I wouldn't make any of them a major part of my portfolio, but if the company is successful and eventually comes off the pinks, the shares I hold would make it one of my biggest holdings.
Year's ago a friend of mine heard about a company at 3 cents, he didn't invest until it was 30 cents, he didn't tell me about it until it was 60 cents, where I got some shares. That company went as high as $24 on nothing of real substance, and it's currently trading for about 15 cents. The company was eDig, I made some money with it, but not nearly as much as I could have, I got caught up in the hype.
I don't know that Cetek could hit the same sort of highs, it really doesn't have to. At pennies we'd have made a healthy profit, at a dime or more I'd feel rich. The reality is, the potential in a field like specialized ceramics is there if you can do something that others can't, or you can do something better, cheaper, faster, etc then the other guys.
I don't know that CTKH can do things better, cheaper, faster, etc. but I think they can because of the process they've developed, and the fact that they make their own ovens. I wish I knew FH's goal, but I really believe we'll all know when he achieves it. Are other firms to be acquired, I don't know, but I don't think he's simply trying to scam us.
Gary
Penny,
In my mind I still believe FH is building something here, but until it's finished he's unwilling to say what it is.
I have far less time here than some investors, but in the time I've been involved he's greatly increased the capacity to make ceramic materials and he's added two companies that greatly add to what he can do with it.
I don't know that a better xxxxxxxxxx will be coming to a store near you anytime soon with the name Cetek on it, but with the capabilities FH seems to be building I suspect that in the not to distant future we may find that Cetek can manufacture something that will sell for substantially more than the ceramic and other material that goes into it.
JMHO, if FH was purely telling a story that wasn't based on some goal he didn't need to acquire two companies to tell that story. He's working on building something, I just don't know if he has what he needs to do it, or if the next news from him could be another acquisition.
Gary
That's not the case here, they're late but they've given every indication that they'll file. LOCH didn't really just stop filing, they became CDEX, though a part of what LOCH was supposed to represent could have stayed in business as LOCH I suppose, but I think we accepted the conversion by accepting our CDEX stock. I don't believe anyone who took CDEX stock would have any LOCH rights.
Gary
I didn't say they never file, just that they don't always file, and they don't seem to ever get in trouble with the SEC for not doing it. Sure, I'd rather they filed on time, or filed the paperwork saying they're going to be late, but if the SEC doesn't care, why go to the expense of doing it.
Gary
My experience tells me other companies do the same thing all the time and I've rarely seen it announced. I doubt the SEC or anyone else will be very concerned.
Gary
How can you say that they weren't trying to make the required date but just didn't get the job done. If you tried to press your claim I think that's all they need to say.
All sorts of companies are late with quarterly and annual reports, it's not terribly professional, but it's not unusual either. They've changed locations, CEO's, etc it's easy to see they've been busy. Let's see what they say when they do file, which I'm sure they will.
Gary
I was just at a meeting with a specialist on diesels on yachts, he was discussing how best to treat and filter your fuel to avoid problems at sea.
The discussion went to biodiesel at one point. His comments should be of some concern. Some diesels have no problem with it, but in some cases the biodiesel brakes down certain components resulting in costly failures.
I'm not concerned about the eventual ability of newer diesels to operate on pure biodiesel fuels, but until someone can assure me that it won't harm anything on my boat, I won't use it.
Please don't get me wrong, I like the direction the company is taking. I believe that diesels are an answer to more efficient cars and trucks and in many cases deliver more efficience than hybrids. I wonder if a diesel hybrid might not be even more efficient. I don't however think anyone should use biodiesel until they're sure that doing so will do no harm.
Gary
If you can bring a bunch of organic material together and make it biodiesel, is it possible to further refined it to something that will run in a gas engine without the modifications needed to run on straight alcohol, which can be made from the same materials.
Thanks,
Gary
I've been out of touch awhile and won't be able to read all that's been posted since leaving town. Are you saying it's documented they'll be receiving $1.6 million a year from the recent contract, making it about a 6 year contract.
If that's the case, let's say half is profit, and they turn the printing presses on and increase the O/S to 8 billion. That would still be earnings of .01 cents a share. If this were the only income for the company at a P/E of 30 it would justify a share price of .003, or to put it another way, five times what it's currently selling for.
From what we know this isn't their only customer, there aren't 8 billion shares outstanding, their subsidiary companies are profitable, etc. In short, a shareprice of over .003 is well justified and if we knew all the business they were doing I believe a price over a penny would be justified.
I really don't know why FH is not revealing all, perhaps it's just because until he's a reporting company he doesn't have to. To me his greatest failure is in not elevating the stock price, not just to benefit shareholders, but to benefit the company. If shares were priced in the pennies, if he needed more cash, or exchanged stock to acquire another company, he wouldn't need to generate nearly as much stock to get the same result.
Perhaps FH is using the low stock price for leverage. Potential acquisitions may realize that if full disclosure were made the company would be worth substantially more. They're willing to sell their companies at a discount to todays stock price with the knowledge that they'll see the benefits of full disclosure later. While I'd think the SEC would frown on such arrangements, it seems that on the Pink's almost anything can be done and the SEC just doesn't want to be bothered.
Gary
Penny,
I've been on vacation awhile but wanted to answer you. You're certainly right, however in the business CTKH is in, I've got to believe that their cost to manufacture the product is small. Even if it were 50% profit margin the share price still should be in the pennies, not where it is today, but of course we need to know more about how quickly the money will be coming in.
Regardless of the outstanding shares being so big, how many companies with millions of dollars in sales documented are selling for less than a penny.
Gary
Orangeman,
For the last 6 years the company hasn't had the income stream needed to support the effort. Now they appear to have it and that changes everything.
Gary
If you can find a flaw in my reasoning, please let me know.
If you say half the $10 million is earnings, this equates to almost a tenth of a cent a share. Now take any reasonable P/E ratio and the company's worth somewhere between a penny and a nickle.
Now I don't know how soon people will figure this out, but it will happen. Of course we have no details of this contract, the material could be delivered over a few years. Still the price should go to or very near a penny.
Equally important, with CTKH announcing earnings of this type, it can't be long before they must report based on SEC rules. We may have to wait a bit, but I think that by next year you'll see CTKH making that move to the OTC.
Gary
It seems to me that a lot of people spend a lot of time here debating if FH is a liar. I think you must define the term. If saying something will happen in the future that doesn't happen in the specified time is lying, then perhaps he is.
I don't think that's a valid way of identifying a lie. To me a lie is knowing something is true, but saying something different.
Fayiz has certainly said many things would happen that didn't, but we cannot know what prevented them from happening, lets just say they were OBE. Fayiz has said some things would happen, like acquisitions, new capacity, the ceramic store, etc. they may have taken longer than he thought, but they happened. Perhaps the other things Fayiz said would happen, like an OTC listing, will happen in time.
Gary
I think you've bought at a very good time. I've been invested almost from the initial stock offering and I can't think of a time when the potentials been this strong.
In the next year, three or more TAP drugs should enter the clinic from IMGN's partners, adding to the 5 that are now in the clinic. Several new licenses and/or single drug partnerships should occur. Hopefully 2 or more drugs will advance to Phase II Trials, and positive data will be presented at the major oncology conferences.
You must remember, with so many drugs in the clinic you have to expect some failures. Statistically depending on who you believe somewhere between 15% and about 35% of drugs that enter Phase I Trials are approved. The fact that IMGN's had some failures in the past might also say we're getting closer to success, as I believe in every case they've learned a lot from the failures, and today's drugs are far superior to those of a decade ago.
The thing to realize about IMGN's technology is, it's a platform. With a little success it should grow from 5 drugs in trial today to a dozen or more by 2010. IMGN currently has 8 active drug licenses, it has the prospects of several more from DNA, some from AMGN, MLNM, and what's been called a slew from SNY by August 2008. As best as we investors can determine, that Slew may be 20 drug targets, and as I said, they must make their decision by August 2008.
If you look around you'll clearly find that people consider me as someone who's no expert, I admit to that, but I don't believe I intentionally hype. I believe the company had the potential of the kind of growth I'm describing, it's taking longer than I ever thought, but the potential is still certainly there.
Gary
Here's an update on the progress of CNT's at Motorola.
http://www.technologyreview.com/NanoTech/17824/page1/
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.
Gary
It seems to me that CDEX is acting to preserve its existance. While no one likes dilution, it's far superior to bankruptcy, etc.
I personally hope that the company takes actions that greatly increase the share price before new shares are issued, and by doing that they lessen the number of shares needed at least for now. It certainly would be preferable if they do an offering through a qualified brokerage rather then selling shares on the open market. Such an offering should include going on a road show where the company gets the opportunity to speak with brokers who'll be working on the offering.
In the past I've been involved with other companies that did such offerings, the stock frequently rose substantially prior to the offering, and retained its value after, at least for some time. The brokerages in such a situation get some number of shares for free, but the higher offering price and increased interest in the stock generally is worth far more than the money they make in doing the offering.
Gary
If anyone's interested, here's a link to an article on Carbon Nanotubes that could greatly advance their use.
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17672&ch=nanotech&sc=&pg=1
I don't know if CTKH is still working with them, and as the article point out, it will still be years before a CNT based computer's available, but sorting the CNT's could result in better quality displays using CNT's, and perhaps that will play a part in CTKH's future.
Gary
I'd love to see this site get active, but I won't push it of others don't. As far as selling, I'd advise just the opposite.
If the drug trial results are a positive as Mitch seems to be inferring, the stock will never see these low prices again once the data for the trials announced before year's end. Of course he could be misleading us, if so he'll probably hear from the SEC.
I've known Mitch since early in the 1990's, met him when my Broker had him do a presentation here in L.A. shortly after the company went public. I've known him to be very wrong about when things would happen, but he was never wrong about them happening, and I've never seen him boast about something that wasn't worthy of it. In fact, Mitch's unwillingness to hype anything has brought him much prior criticism. I believe the fact that he seems really positive right now is a very strong indication we'll all become far more positive when we too have seen the data.
Gary
Is anyone still watching this stock. I'm just hanging on and waiting for the Chinese to do something. At this point it's not worth selling.
Gary
It seems to me that FH is far more the creative inventor than the accountant. It's very possible that when he indicated the company was making a profit he was speaking out of his bank account, which may have been growing. However, bean counters are wonderful when it comes to keeping income, and therefore taxes, down, completely based on the law.
I really haven't been following the boards that closely in recent weeks so I've not heard if there are any new rumors of added capacity, Annual Meeting, etc, but I would like to know.
What is apparent in the few years I've owned the stock is that capacity has greatly increased and the manufacturing technology has greatly improved. New ovens not only have far greater capacity, they are also dramatically faster. I would think that in the near future the existing slower ovens would either be modified or replaced with the improved ovens, perhaps with even further improvements.
I would hope that FH will still have an Annual Meeting, though it's apparently not required now that he's incorportated in Nevada. I look forward to hearing what's said there, and if I can will make the meeting some day, perhaps if the timing's right this year I'll attend. More importantly, I would hope that FH continues to have the books done and quarterly gives us a picture of what's happening at the company which includes data.
Gary
It seems to me that what you have is unaudited data which may not meet accounting standards. Having said that, I don't know where FH has his labor costs, but I seriously doubt if they're all earning the salary levels your figures indicate.
There is little doubt that this data is far better than no data at all, but as I understand it CTKH's manufacturing capabilities have grown tremendously. I suspect if you could drop out the cost of this growth you might find they were operating at a significant profit.
Gary
It seems to me that until such time that CTKH moves up to at least the OTC and must report audited data quarterly we have only one choice. We trust FH to do what's right in building the company, or we get out.
Truthfully, I don't know FH from Adam, but I gather that in the past he's been a pioneer in the development of such thing as the calculator. In short, I gather he's some sort of genius and I believe he's developed superior ways of making high quality ceramics.
At this point I'm willing to trust him awhile longer, losing my entire investment won't stop me from doing anything I already planned, but if the company had tremendous success, I could do some things I plan to do with greater style.
Gary
Orangeman, I haven't heard the fat lady singing.
I really don't know what the Chinese have in mind, but Eaglerise certainly looks like a viable business, if MDOR eventually becomes Eaglerise we may be well rewarded, even if we end up with far fewer shares.
Gary
I was out today, and will be for the next several days, but got the use of the net tonight. I didn't see any news on Yahoo, etc. but did find the report on Pinksheet.com.
It's good to see some information from the company. While I skimmed it over rather rapidly and really don't have the time to go through it thoroughly. What I didn't see clearly in the report was the cost of all the ovens CTKH has built over the last few years. I'm not sure where this is accounted for, or if it's the reason that CTKH isn't showing a profit, rather than a loss.
To me, what's important is that CTKH has over $1 million available and little or no debt. If they're not building a lot of additional oven's, etc. this year, I suspect they could turn a rather large profit next year.
As I said, I just skimmed the report, but I'd certainly like to know if others believe as I do that the report doesn't really show that profits have been invested in the company to produce the new overs, etc.
All and all, I believe there are a lot of other stocks loseing far more, without products to sell, and having far less growth potential that are selling for substantially more than CTKH. If CTKH reported on a quarter where they were not building new ovens or acquiring other new equipment, I believe the quarter would show substantial income.
Gary
I'll continue to view todays announcement as positive if FH follows through as he indicates he would. To me it would be a negative if there is no Annual Meeting. There are a lot of Nevada Corporations, I believe most of them hold Annual Meetings, whether they must by law, or not.
Gary
Thanks Orangeman,
I'm happy to hear we have an interest in WTP. There are no guarantees, but if FH was honest in what was said about communicating more with us, and providing some real data, even if it's unaudited, he'll also tell us about WTP and what he's building for them at CTKH. I have a feeling it involves more than thin film ceramics.
I'll look forward to what he can say officially, I rarely call companies to attempt to get information that isn't publically available. I'll call for clarification of something that's been said, but I don't try to get information which should become public in the near future.
I don't know what's behind the move to Nevada, I didn't think their laws were terribly different. Haven't read to many posts yet, so if someone has already said I'll find it later. Otherwise if someone knows, speak up.
Gary
Hopefully Orange will see the comment and answer. I certainly hope it's CTKH that has an interest in WT, but I suppose we cannot prevent FH from taking an interest as long as he uses his, and not CTKH's money.
Gary
Penny,
Is FH supposed to have invested himself, or did he buy CTKH a piece of the company.
Thanks,
Gary
I'll agree that there should be a SHM based on incorporation rules. I suppose the question now would be, does FH put out a PR to announce it, or does he simply send information to all the brokerages to forward to their clients.
Gary
I think everyone here is waiting to hear something. Hopefully the reason we haven't is that FH wants to do it right, not quickly.
I'm talking about hopefully preparing what's necessary to move off the Pinks. The audits, the SEC filings, etc.
If he's doing that our wait will have been well worth it. It's possible it will be any way, but if CTKH is truly doing well, eventually they'll have to report, and when they do we should do very well.
People keep speaking about the Annual Meeting, I know in the couple years I've been involved that they have them. What I don't know is as a Pink whether it's a requirement any more than quarterly reports are. Clearly quarterly reports have been ignored, will the same be true of the Annual Meeting.
Gary
It seems to me that Jim Stock's name and phone number have been included on numerous CTKH PR's, etc. He may not be paid in cash by CTKH, but I have to believe that some of the stock he's holding was either provided by them, or he was permitted to purchase at a discount to the market.
JMHO.
Gary
I understand what Round is saying about the quality of our ovens and process. However, do we really know that no one else has figured out how to make media in the sizes and quality that CTKH can.
I really know nothing about the competition and its capability, does anyone else here really know that we're that much better.
Gary
Orangeman,
It's pretty clear that things move slowly when a Chinese company's working to trade on an American exchange, but I believe that's the goal. I don't have a lot of money invested, but if they're successful I should be nicely rewarded. If not, I can live with it.
As for the company, Eaglerise does have international presents and I may try to get by their facilities here in Los Angeles. Unfortunately they're quite a distance from my home and in an area that I have no other reason to visit, but I may try to go by anyway and check them out.
Gary
Penny, I've seen or been involved with other companies that did acquisitions and I don't remember ever seeing all the details. It's very different when one publically traded company acquires another, then everyone's invited to know.
I believe we're entitled to know far more then we do, especially if the company intends to move off the pinks, but I don't believe they must tell us anything that could benefit their competition, which details of an acquisition might.
Gary
Penny, we may not know all FH has done, but we know he bought Hybrid and we know he's add a lot of ovens to greatly increase his production capacity. All these things cost money, I'd say at least some of it came from the shares he sold.
Gary
I honestly hope the next information from the company is meaningful because it contains real data. At this point everyone would probably leap on anything from the company, and while as shareholders we might have our spirits buoyed, it will be greeted by a yawn from the street if it doesn't contain real information.
To me it's not critical to learn that CTKH has earned millions, but I'd rather see the fact that they actually earned so many tens or hundreds of thousands then hear where earnings are up 100% or more from last year. I'd like a real number, regardless of how small, though I certainly hope it's large.
What's important is not how much, but the fact that the company's cash positive, that it's growing, and that it will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't even mind if he said we made XX% more this year than last if at the same time he gave a firm figure for what he made last year.
I know round and others have tried to figure what the numbers should be based on figures that were reported years ago. The problem, I believe, is there are some quarters where assumptions must be made. It could be there were losses in those quarters, perhaps losses that were large, it just doesn't work unless you have all the numbers to build on.
Gary
Penny, I think you're right on the money there. Even if he tried to get worldwide coverage, once he put the information out there it wouldn't stop companies in many countries from copying it. What FH is doing worked for Coke, though I personally buy whatever's on sale, I know people who will only drink Coke, but also some who only drink Pepsi.
Gary
Penny, I certainly agree that no one knows what motivates FH or anyone else for that matter. I have heard something about FH that I believe influences him, it was that he was largely responsible for the development of the electronic calculator at Texas Instruments, and the credit was essentially stolen from him. I've gathered he's vowed to never let that happen again. I believe the Cetek Process that makes Cetek a leader in ceramics is the key to success that FH is carefully guarding. It's where he believes he'll get the recognition of his genius that he lost at TI. I certainly hope he's right.
Don't get me wrong, getting the financial reward for himself and his family is also important, and I wouldn't be surprised if they controlled an awful lot of stock. Even at current prices they're in descent shape, but they should be wealthy when FH builds the success he plans and gets the recognition he lost so long ago.
I don't know that any or all of this is the case, it's just the picture I've put together of what I believe drives FH. Why he's not openly discussing what he's doing, or releasing information routinely, I don't have any idea, but I do believe he has a plan, and if it succeeds we could all do very well.
Gary