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Actually VBDG looks worse..
Whats fully diluted share count after all options / warrants converted?
Sold all my energy stocks, solar now a better bet for rebound. My best bet is CSUN.
The time to buy solar stocks as we saw with CSIQ at $6 is while they are turning operations around but before they report the actual earnings turnaround.
CSUN reminds me of CSIQ at $6 in this regard:
-$13 IPO price now trading at $8.10
-Credit Suisse just took 15% stake.
-$45 MM financing just done with $12 conversion price.
-$3 per share net liquid assets
-Returned to profitability in Q1 2008 despite 3 weeks of plant shutdown due to China snowstorms.
-Shipped 24 MW in Q1. Forecasting 32 MW in Q2 and 145 MW for all of 2008 implying ramp up to 40 - 45 MW per quarter in second half 2008.
-Production and gross margin forecast implies CSUN should be generating about $150 MM sales per quarter and $.20 EPS per quarter in second half 2008. This implies about $.80 annualized EPS (increasing production of high efficiency cells will dramatically improve margins going foward).
Apply a 20 sector PE and CSUN should double from here.
Remember the way to make money in the market is to be ahead of the game.. stocks rise in ANTICIPATION of improved results.
Here is good post from Yahoo on CSUN:
Some here might ask the question what is the difference between First Solar and China Sunergy. Well, I have an answer.
FSLR produces thin-film solar cells that will "roll on" to say a roof or where ever you might install a solar cell. CSUN produces the traditional glass panels.
One of the main differences between the two is polysilicon. In the last year or so there has been a shortage of polysilicon and the margins to sell the glass panels have been on the low side. Polysilicon has been tight.
First Solar doesnt require polysilicon where as China Sunenergy does...
You can read more about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#...
This means that First Solar and other solar companies are not aligned like most people believe. CSUN depends upon the polysilicon supply where as FSLR does not...
Therefore, as the polysilicon supply improves then CSUN, CSIQ, SOLF, JASO, etc. benefit. Remember the one thing that CSUN analysts were continually stating throughout 2007 was that the supply of poly was in question for CSUN? Well, here we are in 2008, do you think that supply might have improved in a year?
In fact, look at how the traditional solar companies are trading. Read their earnings call. The poly supply issue is resolving itself in time as more companies come online and increase their poly production.
CSUN is really a 50 dollar company, but management and poly supply issues have been the nagging concern. However, the old management was cleaned out and new board members added. The poly supply situation is resolving itself.
If you want to make 300-400% then buy and hold some shares. Improving fundamentals will help propel us to 50 within a year. Guaranteed.
As for the FSLR, their price might go down substantially. Traditional panels become more attractive when the poly supply increases. Thin film technogoly is still not as space efficient as traditional glass panels.
The truth, the honest truth, is that first generation solar technology still dominates in our world and new technologies have failed to become a solution. The solution right now is glass panels that CSUN makes.
Sold all my energy stocks, solar now a better bet for rebound. My best bet is CSUN.
The time to buy solar stocks as we saw with CSIQ at $6 is while they are turning operations around but before they report the actual earnings turnaround.
CSUN reminds me of CSIQ at $6 in this regard:
-$13 IPO price now trading at $8.10
-Credit Suisse just took 15% stake.
-$45 MM financing just done with $12 conversion price.
-$3 per share net liquid assets
-Returned to profitability in Q1 2008 despite 3 weeks of plant shutdown due to China snowstorms.
-Shipped 24 MW in Q1. Forecasting 32 MW in Q2 and 145 MW for all of 2008 implying ramp up to 40 - 45 MW per quarter in second half 2008.
-Production and gross margin forecast implies CSUN should be generating about $150 MM sales per quarter and $.20 EPS per quarter in second half 2008. This implies about $.80 annualized EPS (increasing production of high efficiency cells will dramatically improve margins going foward).
Apply a 20 sector PE and CSUN should double from here.
Remember the way to make money in the market is to be ahead of the game.. stocks rise in ANTICIPATION of improved results.
Here is good post from Yahoo on CSUN:
Some here might ask the question what is the difference between First Solar and China Sunergy. Well, I have an answer.
FSLR produces thin-film solar cells that will "roll on" to say a roof or where ever you might install a solar cell. CSUN produces the traditional glass panels.
One of the main differences between the two is polysilicon. In the last year or so there has been a shortage of polysilicon and the margins to sell the glass panels have been on the low side. Polysilicon has been tight.
First Solar doesnt require polysilicon where as China Sunenergy does...
You can read more about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#...
This means that First Solar and other solar companies are not aligned like most people believe. CSUN depends upon the polysilicon supply where as FSLR does not...
Therefore, as the polysilicon supply improves then CSUN, CSIQ, SOLF, JASO, etc. benefit. Remember the one thing that CSUN analysts were continually stating throughout 2007 was that the supply of poly was in question for CSUN? Well, here we are in 2008, do you think that supply might have improved in a year?
In fact, look at how the traditional solar companies are trading. Read their earnings call. The poly supply issue is resolving itself in time as more companies come online and increase their poly production.
CSUN is really a 50 dollar company, but management and poly supply issues have been the nagging concern. However, the old management was cleaned out and new board members added. The poly supply situation is resolving itself.
If you want to make 300-400% then buy and hold some shares. Improving fundamentals will help propel us to 50 within a year. Guaranteed.
As for the FSLR, their price might go down substantially. Traditional panels become more attractive when the poly supply increases. Thin film technogoly is still not as space efficient as traditional glass panels.
The truth, the honest truth, is that first generation solar technology still dominates in our world and new technologies have failed to become a solution. The solution right now is glass panels that CSUN makes.
TIV $15 by August IMO.
Its REAL simple..
as you stated, the new wells are not included.
How can they say it?
Because it is true, if they were lieing they will go to jail.
Well if they aren't, they are all going to jail and their shares will be worthless.
Thats silly. Any company can be a scam, but the scam risk for TIV is way less than average with the huge insider buying and the long company history.
bbtocs yes very recent- their January letter to Shareholders addresses this.
TIV is about future huge discounted earnings from new horizontal SAGD technology applied in heavy oil..
past is irrelevant.
TIV becoming the love of my life:
From Yahoo Board:
13-Jul-08 12:09 am Tri-Valley (TIV) continues to increase production, with the following status:
They are now producing over 2048 BOE/day, how much over, we should find out fairly soon.
Production capacity is 3,500 BOE/day from all three fields. Company is profitable at between 1,700 and 2,000 BOE/day. Opus checks are growing each month. Up over 200% since April, with May and June production taking these working interest checks higher by another 100%, with July production now in progress, assuming only 2048 BOE/day, double that amount yet again. This is the pragmatic yard stick by which to measure rapidly increasing production.
That production and revenue generation is the result of only 9 new wells, two of which are still being prepared to place on production, on 3 of 433 acres. This provides some interesting math., if you care to work it out.
Another 12 wells are planned on an adjoining 15 acre parcel, over the next few months.
The next planned wells should get production to 10,000 BOE before the end of 2009.
Past that, a total of 70 wells are planned on two reserves over the next two to three years, making the potential for this teeny tiny, teeny weenie, tiny teeny company staggering.
The implications for Tri-Valley stock are enormous.
By my calculation, for every 1,000 BOE/day over 2,000 BOE/day, TIV should add 25 cents per share annualized, which would provide, by my calculation, earnings of $2.00/share by the end of 2009.
And of course, my favorite model for TIV expectations is a company called GMX Resources (GMXR). GMXR with trailing twelve month earnings of $1.12, closed at $84 yesterday. Again, some extremely interesting math, if you care to partake.
Another factor to consider with Tri-Valley is the possibility of offers to buy the Pleasant Valley "proven" oil field. Those offers would be in the $3 billion and up range, with oil prices now in excess of $140/barrel. That would bring $28K per Opus $1K invested and about $28/share to Tri-Valley, whose stock closed at a paltry $6.88 Friday.
Historically, any junior oil company, at least in California, surpassing 2,000 BOE winds up selling out to a larger producer, or in the company itself being acquired - at a handsome figure.
On top of all that, the Russell Index funds have acquired 2.1 million shares of TIV stock which reduces the float by that amount, so the float, with over 2.5 million shares short has just become tighter, as has the grip on TIV stock by long term investors.
When will TIV stock reflect these conditions? No one can say, but it sure seems reasonable that the stock must begin to reflect such positive results in the near future.
My comments on TIV's "History". I suppose every investor has a bias on a stock (positive or negative) they have owned based on their experience with it..
I am always wary with any investment. But, in my mind, the number one factor in judging management is.. do they buy their own stock.
TIV mansgement has bought nearly 1 Million bucks worth in the last 6 months, more than any oil and gas company I follow.
And TIV's drilling partner has also bought a ton.
TIV insiders are putting BIG money where mouth is. I think buying TIV right now is like shooting fish in a barrel.
Thanks littlefish.. I am not sure what you mean exactly.. you seem to be implying there could be some doubt, which is quite franlky silly.
The production numbers have been published, and are perfectly plausible and explainable by anyone familiar with the ability of new horizontal well SAGD technology to unlock reserves.. exactly the same thing is happening in the Bakken and reservoirs all over the world.
I would think the current CEO and directors, and TIV's drilling partner, who have been heavily buying TIV stock, know a lot more about the situation and the potential than your so called "contacts".
I would think your "contacts" are not familiar with new SAGD methods, and their opinion has no value.
No Lexi I meant to say that investing in USA far less risky than anywhere else with the exception of Canada, although there is a small risk with the Canadians wanting to diversify.. India and China want to buy up pieces of the Canadian Oil Sands.
TIV: Reserves are defined not as gross barrels in the ground, as the economically recoverable reserves using current technology.
TIV's reserves would have been booked based on the old vertical well approach, which gave meagre results in the California Heavy Oils. What has changed everything is that TIV is now using Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), which was only recenly been mastered in Canada.
SAGD reduces the heavy oil's viscosity, dramatically increasing flow rates, and for TIV, this is literally a company changer. Many of the SAGD wells are producing 200 BOE per day, thats very large production. The results for TIV production are something I have NEVER seen in 20 years in the oil patch... production rising from 70 BOE / Day to 2000 BOE /day in 5 months.
There is no doubt that TIV has engaged consulting engineers to recacaluate reserves based on current SAGD technology, and the reserve base will be very large. An 85 foot oil bearing zone is VERY large, and thats only one of five zones they have identified.
Updated TIV DD:
TIV has "world class" heavy oil sands reserves that rival many Canadian Oil Sands plays that are now economic to recover using horizontal wells. MOST OF THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS PUBLIC COMPANIES HAVE MARKET CAPS IN THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUT HAVE NOT YET ACHEIVED ANY PRODUCTION (e.g. BQI:AMEX). TIV should have AT LEAST the same valuation as these Canadian Tar Sands plays as it has large, growing production levels, more favorable geographic location close to markets, and much lower costs. IF TIV HAD A $1 BILLION MARKET CAP IT WOULD BE A $40 STOCK.
A SIMILAR COMPANY PRODUCING CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL, GMXR:NASDAQ IS PRICED AT $70 BASED ON $1 EARNINGS.THIS HIGH PE RATIO REFLECTS THE MASSIVE CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL RESOURCE AND GROWTH PROSPECTS, SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS.
SUMMARY DD:
1) NOW PROFITABLE WITH OVER 2,000 BOE Daily production. TIV shows a profit somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 BOE/day, and around $1/share earnings at 7,000 BOE/Day which can be reached within a few months.
2) Just added to Russell Index, resulting in increased institutional buying.
3) Large insider buys.
4) TIV is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. Momentum players have sent up stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ TIV is next IMO.
5) TIV is selling at a HUGE discount to comparable stocks in terms of Price/Sales and cash flow.
6) TIV is the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCER IN NORTH AMERICA.
7) In 2005 during the last sector boom, TIV ran from $4 to $16 when it was Still basically an EXPLORATION company. NOW TIV IS A SENIOR PRODUCER WITH A CURRENT REVENUE RUN RATE OF $50 MM PER YEAR.
8) Small 20 MM float.
9) Compare TIV market cap to Canadian Heavy Oil/Bitumen plays like BQI. BQI has a $1.1 BILLION market cap and has NO production. If TIV had a $1.1 Billion market cap it would be a $40 stock.
SUMMARY OF TIV PRODUCTION GROWTH:
1. 500 BOE/day as of 25 March 2008
2. 1,000 BOE/day as of 8 May 2008
3. 1,500 BOE/day as of 19 May 2008
4. 2048 BOE/day by the end of June 2008
5. Total TIV production capacity now about 3,500 BOE. Difference between barrels shipped and 3,500 is due to choking back production at the Vaca zone. Just the kind of problem we like to see.
TIV IS FORECASTING 10,000 BOE PRODUCTION BY YEAR END 2009. If TIV is profitable on 2048 BOE, then 10,000 BOE/day should get their earnings near $2/share!!
Here are some useful links for additional Info:
Yahoo DD Post:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=tm&bn=23667&tid=94612&mid=94612&tof=18&frt=2
TIV surpasses Production Goals, forecasts 10000 BOE / Day Production by end of 2009:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=27086277&symbol=A%5ETIV
TIV Natural Gas Production: In addition to Oil Sands, TIV has large Natural Gas reserves in Moffat Field. Large Initial Natural Gas Well of 1,000 MCF /day with 25 more wells planned.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=25289417&symbol=A%5ETIV
I think its pure manipulation.. there is a good post by Goergia on Yahoo Board saying it is related to the Russell Index rebalancing.
Nothing wrong with BQI, all I am saying is that TIV is an elephant size oil company now right in the good old USA- no foreign risk.
TIV is going to be my retirement maker. TIV's properties are bigger than the discoveries that sent GMXR from $8 to $45 in a few months. I work in the Canadian Oil and Gas sector and now that I have built my position I have told lots of colleagues who are joining the bandwagon, they like me have picked up on the fact that TIV would be $50 minimum if valued like Canadian Oil Sands Companies with far lesser reserves and no production like BQI.
TIV has BQI beaten hands down in every aspect.. production, market access, reserve base, diversification, far lower costs (due to mild California weather, and favorable location...(Canadian costs are MUCH higher).
My pick for next oil / gas 10 Bagger:
TIV:AMEX ($6.28) IS THE MOST UNDERVALUED ENERGY PLAY BY EVERY METRIC. TIV IS ON TRACK FOR 10,000 BOE / DAY PRODUCTION BY 2009 WITH ESTIMATED EARNINGS OF $1 - $2 PER SHARE.
TIV has "world class" heavy oil sands reserves that rival many Canadian Oil Sands plays that are now economic to recover using horizontal wells. MOST OF THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS PUBLIC COMPANIES HAVE MARKET CAPS IN THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUT HAVE NOT YET ACHEIVED ANY PRODUCTION (e.g. BQI:AMEX). TIV should have AT LEAST the same valuation as these Canadian Tar Sands plays as it has large, growing production levels, more favorable geographic location close to markets, and much lower costs. IF TIV HAD A $1 BILLION MARKET CAP IT WOULD BE A $40 STOCK.
A SIMILAR COMPANY PRODUCING CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL, GMXR:NASDAQ IS PRICED AT $70 BASED ON $1 EARNINGS.THIS HIGH PE RATIO REFLECTS THE MASSIVE CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL RESOURCE AND GROWTH PROSPECTS, SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS.
SUMMARY DD:
1) NOW PROFITABLE WITH OVER 2,000 BOE Daily production. TIV shows a profit somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 BOE/day, and around $1/share earnings at 7,000 BOE/Day which can be reached within a few months.
2) Just added to Russell Index, resulting in increased institutional buying.
3) Large insider buys.
4) TIV is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. Momentum players have sent up stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ TIV is next IMO.
5) TIV is selling at a HUGE discount to comparable stocks in terms of Price/Sales and cash flow.
6) TIV is the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCER IN NORTH AMERICA.
7) In 2005 during the last sector boom, TIV ran from $4 to $16 when it was Still basically an EXPLORATION company. NOW TIV IS A SENIOR PRODUCER WITH A CURRENT REVENUE RUN RATE OF $50 MM PER YEAR.
8) Small 20 MM float.
9) Compare TIV market cap to Canadian Heavy Oil/Bitumen plays like BQI. BQI has a $1.1 BILLION market cap and has NO production. If TIV had a $1.1 Billion market cap it would be a $40 stock.
SUMMARY OF TIV PRODUCTION GROWTH:
1. 500 BOE/day as of 25 March 2008
2. 1,000 BOE/day as of 8 May 2008
3. 1,500 BOE/day as of 19 May 2008
4. 2048 BOE/day by the end of June 2008
5. Total TIV production capacity now about 3,500 BOE. Difference between barrels shipped and 3,500 is due to choking back production at the Vaca zone. Just the kind of problem we like to see.
TIV IS FORECASTING 10,000 BOE PRODUCTION BY YEAR END 2009. If TIV is profitable on 2048 BOE, then 10,000 BOE/day should get their earnings near $2/share!!
Here are some useful links for additional Info:
Yahoo DD Post:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=tm&bn=23667&tid=94612&mid=94612&tof=18&frt=2
TIV surpasses Production Goals, forecasts 10000 BOE / Day Production by end of 2009:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=27086277&symbol=A%5ETIV
TIV Natural Gas Production: In addition to Oil Sands, TIV has large Natural Gas reserves in Moffat Field. Large Initial Natural Gas Well of 1,000 MCF /day with 25 more wells planned.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=25289417&symbol=A%5ETIV
Updated TIV DD Information:
TIV:AMEX ($6.28) IS THE MOST UNDERVALUED ENERGY PLAY BY EVERY METRIC. TIV IS ON TRACK FOR 10,000 BOE / DAY PRODUCTION BY 2009 WITH ESTIMATED EARNINGS OF $1 - $2 PER SHARE.
TIV has "world class" heavy oil sands reserves that rival many Canadian Oil Sands plays that are now economic to recover using horizontal wells. MOST OF THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS PUBLIC COMPANIES HAVE MARKET CAPS IN THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUT HAVE NOT YET ACHEIVED ANY PRODUCTION (e.g. BQI:AMEX). TIV should have AT LEAST the same valuation as these Canadian Tar Sands plays as it has large, growing production levels, more favorable geographic location close to markets, and much lower costs. IF TIV HAD A $1 BILLION MARKET CAP IT WOULD BE A $40 STOCK.
A SIMILAR COMPANY PRODUCING CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL, GMXR:NASDAQ IS PRICED AT $70 BASED ON $1 EARNINGS.THIS HIGH PE RATIO REFLECTS THE MASSIVE CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL RESOURCE AND GROWTH PROSPECTS, SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS.
SUMMARY DD:
1) NOW PROFITABLE WITH OVER 2,000 BOE Daily production. TIV shows a profit somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 BOE/day, and around $1/share earnings at 7,000 BOE/Day which can be reached within a few months.
2) Just added to Russell Index, resulting in increased institutional buying.
3) Large insider buys.
4) TIV is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. Momentum players have sent up stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ TIV is next IMO.
5) TIV is selling at a HUGE discount to comparable stocks in terms of Price/Sales and cash flow.
6) TIV is the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCER IN NORTH AMERICA.
7) In 2005 during the last sector boom, TIV ran from $4 to $16 when it was Still basically an EXPLORATION company. NOW TIV IS A SENIOR PRODUCER WITH A CURRENT REVENUE RUN RATE OF $50 MM PER YEAR.
8) Small 20 MM float.
9) Compare TIV market cap to Canadian Heavy Oil/Bitumen plays like BQI. BQI has a $1.1 BILLION market cap and has NO production. If TIV had a $1.1 Billion market cap it would be a $40 stock.
SUMMARY OF TIV PRODUCTION GROWTH:
1. 500 BOE/day as of 25 March 2008
2. 1,000 BOE/day as of 8 May 2008
3. 1,500 BOE/day as of 19 May 2008
4. 2048 BOE/day by the end of June 2008
5. Total TIV production capacity now about 3,500 BOE. Difference between barrels shipped and 3,500 is due to choking back production at the Vaca zone. Just the kind of problem we like to see.
TIV IS FORECASTING 10,000 BOE PRODUCTION BY YEAR END 2009. If TIV is profitable on 2048 BOE, then 10,000 BOE/day should get their earnings near $2/share!!
Here are some useful links for additional Info:
Yahoo DD Post:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=tm&bn=23667&tid=94612&mid=94612&tof=18&frt=2
TIV surpasses Production Goals, forecasts 10000 BOE / Day Production by end of 2009:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=27086277&symbol=A%5ETIV
TIV Natural Gas Production: In addition to Oil Sands, TIV has large Natural Gas reserves in Moffat Field. Large Initial Natural Gas Well of 1,000 MCF /day with 25 more wells planned.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1215670535&article=25289417&symbol=A%5ETIV
Think you need to do a bit more DD. Good luck.
Of course TIV doesn't have 100% working interest of it would be a $30 stock already, but from TIV board some wells have 85% and some 25% interest.
Back in TIV. Updated DD:
IMO TIV:AMEX ($6.48) IS THE MOST UNDERVALUED OIL PLAY BY EVERY METRIC.
TIV IS ON TRACK FOR 10000 BOE /DAY PRODUCTION AND $2 PER SHARE EARNINGS BY 2009. A SIMILAR COMPANY PRODUCING CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL, GMXR:NASDAQ IS PRICED AT $70 BASED ON $1 EARNINGS. THIS HIGH PE RATIO REFLECTS THE MASSIVE CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL RESOURCE AND GROWTH PROSPECTS, SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS.
SUMMARY DD:
1) NOW PROFITABLE WITH OVER 2,000 BOE Daily production. TIV shows a profit somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 BOE/day, and around $1/share earnings at around 7,000 BOE/Day which can be reached within a few months.
2) just added to Russell Index, resulting in increased institutional buying.
3) HUGE insider buys.
4) TIV is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent up stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ TIV is next IMO.
5) TIV is selling at a HUGE discount to comparable stocks in terms of Price/Sales and cash flow.
6) TIV is the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCER IN NORTH AMERICA.
7) In 2005 during the last sector boom, TIV ran from $4 to $16 when it was Still basically an EXPLORATION company. NOW TIV IS A SENIOR PROUDUCER WITH A CURRENT REVENUE RUN RATE OF $100 MM PER YEAR.
8) Small 20 MM float.
9) Compare TIV market cap to Canadian Heavy oil/Bitumen plays like BQI. BQI has a $1.1 BILLION market cap and has NO production. If TIV had a $1.1 Billion market cap it would be a $40 stock.
SUMMARY OF TIV PRODUCTION RESULTS: PHENOMENAL PRODUCTION GROWTH:
1. 500 BOE/day as of 25 March 2008
2. 1,000 BOE/day as of 8 May 2008
3. 1,500 BOE/day as of 19 May 2008
4. 2048 BOE/day by the end of June 2008
5. Total TIV production capacity now about 3,500 BOE. Difference between barrels shipped and 3,500 is due to choking back production at the Vaca zone. Just the kind of problem we like to see.
TIV IS FORECASTING 10000 BOE PRODUCTION BY YEAR END 2009. If TIV is profitable on 2048 BOE, then 10,000 BOE/day should get their earnings near $2/share!!
APPLYING THE 70 PE RATIO OF GMXR MEANS TIV CAN BE A $150 STOCK!!
Here is another Great DD Post:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...
TIV:AMEX $6.48 Small Float 2000 BOE DAILY PRODUCTION
From Yahoo:
Looking for the next Oil and Gas Momentum play with the potential to gain 500% in a short time? TIV:AMEX ($6.48) IS THE MOST UNDERVALUED OIL PLAY BY EVERY METRIC.
TIV IS ON TRACK FOR 10000 BOE /DAY PRODUCTION AND $2 PER SHARE EARNINGS BY 2009. A SIMILAR COMPANY PRODUCING CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL, GMXR:NASDAQ IS PRICED AT $70 BASED ON $1 EARNINGS. THIS HIGH PE RATIO REFLECTS THE MASSIVE CALIFORNIA HEAVY OIL RESOURCE AND GROWTH PROSPECTS, SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN TAR SANDS.
SUMMARY DD:
1) NOW PROFITABLE WITH OVER 2,000 BOE Daily production. TIV shows a profit somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 BOE/day, and around $1/share earnings at around 7,000 BOE/Day which can be reached within a few months.
2) just added to Russell Index, resulting in increased institutional buying.
3) HUGE insider buys.
4) TIV is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent up stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ TIV is next IMO.
5) TIV is selling at a HUGE discount to comparable stocks in terms of Price/Sales and cash flow.
6) TIV is the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCER IN NORTH AMERICA.
7) In 2005 during the last sector boom, TIV ran from $4 to $16 when it was Still basically an EXPLORATION company. NOW TIV IS A SENIOR PROUDUCER WITH A CURRENT REVENUE RUN RATE OF $100 MM PER YEAR.
8) Small 20 MM float.
9) Compare TIV market cap to Canadian Heavy oil/Bitumen plays like BQI. BQI has a $1.1 BILLION market cap and has NO production. If TIV had a $1.1 Billion market cap it would be a $40 stock.
SUMMARY OF TIV PRODUCTION RESULTS: PHENOMENAL PRODUCTION GROWTH:
1. 500 BOE/day as of 25 March 2008
2. 1,000 BOE/day as of 8 May 2008
3. 1,500 BOE/day as of 19 May 2008
4. 2048 BOE/day by the end of June 2008
5. Total TIV production capacity now about 3,500 BOE. Difference between barrels shipped and 3,500 is due to choking back production at the Vaca zone. Just the kind of problem we like to see.
TIV IS FORECASTING 10000 BOE PRODUCTION BY YEAR END 2009. If TIV is profitable on 2048 BOE, then 10,000 BOE/day should get their earnings near $2/share!!
APPLYING THE 70 PE RATIO OF GMXR MEANS TIV CAN BE A $150 STOCK!!
Here is another Great DD Post:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...
Yes I am back in.
I do not accept the premise of your post that there is "uncertainty" or doubt about these numbers.. the PR's are clear and unequivocal.
I don't know what you are talking about. The productopn results and forecasts speak for themselves, the market is forward looking TIV a way different company than in the past.
Please explain how TIV's financials are a "mess"? Thanks.
Back in ANTP again. Like clock work buy in low $5's sell at $8.
2 MM flloat $3.5/ share cash hard to go wrong.
Rumor of IRAQ contract/
iraq humvee link:
http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003370.html
I don't know which PR service you have but TIV production is exploding. Not sure what criteria you have for "getting it together" but it sure meets mine.
Made $100000 on TIV and about to sell NCEY for $75000 profit. nice.
I would like some useful constructive discussion from anyone else on NCEY value. Is there ANYONE here with oil and gas experience and constructive discussion to offer? I don't know of ANY other US oil stock growing in excess of 50% per year with production approaching 10000 BOE /day.
NCEY has FAR higher production rates than PDO. There is no comparison. NCEY has elephnant size oil wells.
A better comparison would be TIV:AMEX. It now has about 600 BOE net oil production and about a $200 MM market cap.
Updated Top Reasons to buy NCEY:
NCEY is the most undervalued Oil play be EVERY metric:
RESERVES: $200 MM reserves at current market prices: Proved reserves as of December 31, 2007 are 1,613,000 barrels oil and 3.0 Million Mcf gas.
VALUATION: Oil and gas producers are typically valued around 2 X reserve value. THIS WOULD VALUE NCEY AT $400 MILLION OF NEARLY $8 PER SHARE.
PROFITABILITY: NCEY WILL BE PROFITABLE in Q2 2008 WITH OVER 750 BOE DAILY PRODUCTION (COMPANY WEBSITE). REVENUES WILL APPROACH $10 MILLION AT CURRENT OIL AND GAS PRICES OR $40 MILLION ANNUALLY. Thats some 700% HIGHER than small cap oil companies like PDO or ROYL with $125 - $150 MM market caps.
DISCOUNT TO SECTOR: NCEY has ONLY $25 MM market cap a HUGE discount to other mid size profitable oil and gas stocks.
SMALL FLOAT: 56 Million shares OS, with 43 Million owned by the CEO or institutions, leaving 13 Million "available" float.
NCEY is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ NCEY is next IMO.
NCEY is one of the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCERS IN NORTH AMERICA.
In 2005 during the last sector boom, NCEY ran to $1.60 when it had MUCH lower sales and production.
NCEY can be a $5 stock. Most companies trade at 2 X their reserve values. With 1.6 MM BOE proven reserves, NCEY should be valued conservatively at 2 X $160 MM or $320 MM.
Estimated 4 Cents earnings for Q2:
Sales Revenue........$10 Million
Cost of revenue......$3.4 Million
Gross profit.........$6.6 million
Operating expense....$2.4 Million
Interest expense.....$2.2 Million
Income tax............0
PROFIT: $2 MILLION or 4 cents per share.
Next Oil Gas MONSTER: NCEY $.37 +.11
Looking for the next Oil and Gas Momentum play with the potential to gain 500% - 1000% in a short time? NCEY ($.37 +.11) is the most undervalued Oil play be EVERY metric.
1) PROFITABLE in Q2 2008 WITH OVER 750 BOE DAILY PRODUCTION (from company website). REVENUES WILL APPROACH $10 MILLION PER QUARTER AT CURRENT OIL AND GAS PRICES OR $40 MILLION ANNUALLY.
Thats some 700% HIGHER than small cap oil companies like PDO or ROYL with $125 - $150 MM market caps.
2) NCEY has ONLY $20 MM market cap (56 Million shares OS and 19 MM float) a HUGE discount to other mid size profitable oil and gas stocks.
3) NCEY is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ NCEY is next IMO.
4) NCEY is one of the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCERS IN NORTH AMERICA.
5) In 2005 during the last sector boom, NCEY ran to $1.60 when it has much lower sales and production.
SUMMARY OF NCEY PRODUCTION RESULTS
-Q1 2008: Oil Production averaged 550 BOE/day.
April 2008:
-April 2008: Completed a new oil well in Wharton County making 80 BOE/day.
-June 2008: Completed another Large Texas Well at 85 BOE / day.
-2 More Texas wells to be completed before end of June 2008.
FROM NCEY WEBSITE: CURRENT NET PRODUCTION 750 BOE / DAY OIL:
New Century Energy Corp, headquartered in Houston, TX, is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, with daily net production to its working interest of approximately 750 barrels of oil per day.
Next Oil Gas MONSTER: NCEY $.37 +.11
Looking for the next Oil and Gas Momentum play with the potential to gain 500% - 1000% in a short time? NCEY ($.37 +.11) is the most undervalued Oil play be EVERY metric.
1) PROFITABLE in Q2 2008 WITH OVER 750 BOE DAILY PRODUCTION (from company website). REVENUES WILL APPROACH $10 MILLION PER QUARTER AT CURRENT OIL AND GAS PRICES OR $40 MILLION ANNUALLY.
Thats some 700% HIGHER than small cap oil companies like PDO or ROYL with $125 - $150 MM market caps.
2) NCEY has ONLY $20 MM market cap (56 Million shares OS and 19 MM float) a HUGE discount to other mid size profitable oil and gas stocks.
3) NCEY is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ NCEY is next IMO.
4) NCEY is one of the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCERS IN NORTH AMERICA.
5) In 2005 during the last sector boom, NCEY ran to $1.60 when it has much lower sales and production.
SUMMARY OF NCEY PRODUCTION RESULTS
-Q1 2008: Oil Production averaged 550 BOE/day.
April 2008:
-April 2008: Completed a new oil well in Wharton County making 80 BOE/day.
-June 2008: Completed another Large Texas Well at 85 BOE / day.
-2 More Texas wells to be completed before end of June 2008.
FROM NCEY WEBSITE: CURRENT NET PRODUCTION 750 BOE / DAY OIL:
New Century Energy Corp, headquartered in Houston, TX, is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, with daily net production to its working interest of approximately 750 barrels of oil per day.
NCEY DD SUMMARY: $3 TARGET:
Looking for the next Oil and Gas Momentum play with the potential to gain 500% - 1000% in a short time? NCEY ($.37 +.11) is the most undervalued Oil play be EVERY metric.
1) PROFITABLE in Q2 2008 WITH OVER 750 BOE DAILY PRODUCTION (from company website). REVENUES WILL APPROACH $10 MILLION PER QUARTER AT CURRENT OIL AND GAS PRICES OR $40 MILLION ANNUALLY.
Thats some 700% HIGHER than small cap oil companies like PDO or ROYL with $125 - $150 MM market caps.
2) NCEY has ONLY $20 MM market cap (56 Million shares OS and 19 MM float) a HUGE discount to other mid size profitable oil and gas stocks.
3) NCEY is a LAGGARD in hottest sector, oil and gas. MOMENTUM players have sent stocks like PDO and MXC from single digits to $20 ++ NCEY is next IMO.
4) NCEY is one of the FASTEST GROWING LOW COST OIL PRODUCERS IN NORTH AMERICA.
5) In 2005 during the last sector boom, NCEY ran to $1.60 when it has much lower sales and production.
SUMMARY OF NCEY PRODUCTION RESULTS
-Q1 2008: Oil Production averaged 550 BOE/day.
April 2008:
-April 2008: Completed a new oil well in Wharton County making 80 BOE/day.
-June 2008: Completed another Large Texas Well at 85 BOE / day.
-2 More Texas wells to be completed before end of June 2008.
FROM NCEY WEBSITE: CURRENT NET PRODUCTION 750 BOE / DAY OIL:
New Century Energy Corp, headquartered in Houston, TX, is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, with daily net production to its working interest of approximately 750 barrels of oil per day
Anyone following NCEY at $.36? Now have current net production rate of 800 BOE / Day, will report $10 MM sales easily in Q2. 56 MM shares OS, 12 MM float. The only concern is the debt, but with cash flow exploding they could pay most of it off in a few years. Lots of Yahoo posters saying debt restructure announcement imminent.
Yahoo post/ Comments?
This posts claims that a couple met with NCEY and were informed production now 1200 BPD. If that were true this should be a $5 stock. Comments on plausibility?
NCEY News From CEO 12-Jun-08 11:45 am I saw this somewhere else and thought I would pass it on to the board for review.
Well guys, my wife and I met with the CEO and here is a summary of what we found out:
Current oil production is over 1200 barrels/day with 1500 expected by July
Reserves have increased by 28% since the last report was published (10Q) (He expects this to meet 35% very soon)
Gas production output is up 34% from last 10Q update
All debt has been restuctured through conventional means (Laurus is gone) and will be announced via PR before end of June
Plans to list on AMEX before end of year (he and his attorney working the details as we speak
And here is the kicker, I asked him how he plans to meet the listing requirments for AMEX or NAZ and he said when I release the numbers for 2nd Q, this will fly. While the stock is up, I will announced a 15MM-20MM share retirement (details still being worked). I believe he said he wants the share count around 30MM total O/S.
This guy is truly driven and has an awesome team making all this happen. He is absolutely dedicated to making this company a major player in the Gulf Area. He said we are not XOM, but we are sure trying to follow their lead.
All in all, great guy and if you get the chance, go see him and see the ops.
GLTA!!
Sentiment : Strong Buy
Rating :
(3 Ratings)Rate it:
DD page says Current production 750 BPD. Source?
It appears that average daily production in Q1 was about 600 BPD? Just wondering where the 750 BPD was obtained from?
Thanks
Hottest Cheapest NASDAQ oil stock:
PINN:NASDAQ closed the week up $.80 $3.50, but I think is just starting. PINN is by far the most undervalued Shale gas play IMO. It has very large holdings (500,000 acres) in the hottest shale gas plays in the U.S. including the Green River Basin and Powder River Basin. WHEN PINN CAME OUT AS AN IPO INSTITUTIONS PAID $9 PER SHARE.
The only reason PINN went down so low is a failed merger with QRCP. PINN is now recovering and recovering fast, but is still the only major natural gas company I follow trading BELOW 2007 prices, so I expect much more short term upside. With a 7 MM float, mostly owned by institutions, the PINN float is very tightly held, so PINN could experience rapid appreciation if the Oil and gas momo crowd discovers it.
Fundamentally this stock should be trading 2-5 times where it is and compared to its peers. PINN is currently trading at just over $200/acre ($98,000,000/500,000 acres). This includes substantial infrastructure including 150 miles of natural gas gathering lines! Even with the current production, we should be 2-5 times the current stock value. Take a look at AEZ, KOG or NOG for example which are shale gas / CBM exploration companies with almost zero revenues and yet have substantially higher market caps than Pinnacle:
SHALE GAS COMPANY MARKET CAPS:
PINN: $98 MM
AEZ: $208 MM
NOG: $482 MM
KOG: $388 MM
PINN has 5,000 drilling targets, each well is approximately 0.4BCF of reserves, so total reserves and being conservative is approaching 2TCF.
The reality of it, Pinnacle probably has 4 - 6TCF in its acreage which makes this a multi-billion dollar asset company.
PINN is now starting to get its story out with Analyst meeting this last week- I don't think PINN will be a secret much longer.