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Yes, cannon...Bruce put much more time, effort, and intelligence into his analysis of the market opportunity than the SCNetwork "analyst" did.
Personally I think trying to estimate the market for a universal cancer marker with 90%+ accuracy is so silly it's not even funny. It's a pure jerk-off excercise: "is it a billion or $500 million" -- give me a frigging break. IT'S MASSIVE! ENOUGH SAID! I wish that guy spent more time analyzing the data and BOCX's methodology for obtaining the data as published as part of their response to the SEC -- rather than jerking himself off about Astrazeneca and the general oncology market opportunity. That's just me though...the question in this stock is not how big the market is, but how credible is the data. Once the world believes our data the fat lady has sung.
NO, the $2.17 is based on 57 million shares outstanding, which is his estimate of shares outstanding in the year 2007. In my opinion this guy's price target should be totally disregarded until he discloses the assumptions he uses to derive his NPV figures. Without that disclosure, there is no way for us to analyze or even intelligently discuss his price target.
My thoughts on his $2.17 price target...The guy simply provides his silly NPV figure and divides by a diluted '07 shares outstanding figure of 57 million. However he does not disclose any information about how he derived his NPV (unless I'm missing something) -- ie; probabilities used, etc. I have never read a research report where the analyst does not disclose his own frigging valuation model, which makes sense considering this guys is not an analyst and the document is not a research report. This guy could have pulled the NPV out of his arse for all we know, or could have used an abysmally low probability of success, or a 5% royalty rate, or whatever...we simply don't know because he left out the most important part of his report -- valuation model.
Anyways in his defense, it is silly to try to put forth a quantitative valuation on a company like this. First of all there are too many unknown variables at this time to make the model useful. Second of all, and more importantly, this is a black and white investment opportunity...either the prelim data holds and the stock goes bananas, or this stock goes bankrupt.
This line from the research report is news to me:
"In collaboration with the Center for Cancer Care in Goshen, Indiana, BioCurex is developing an AFP based ligand to attach a radioisotope for the imaging of breast tumors in a nuclear medicine technique called mammoscinitgraphy."
The Goshen press release did not get into this kind of detail did it? I reported that based on my talk with Dr. Schwartzentruber at Goshen, my impression was they were doing 100% imaging despite the fact that the P.R says diagnostics and imaging -- but this looks like a much more focused and detailed plan that what has been said up until now.
The younger investors will grow anxious and gullible during these slower periods, seeking the elusive "guarantee" that their money is safe. I can't blame them because I was impatient at that age. But I take comfort knowing that there are SOME shareholders out there that look at the big picture and have the patience to wait for it all to unfold.
Cannonball let's hope so but the less liquid a stock, the less TA works, and G*D knows this stock is not liquid.
cannon: that's why I like the $9/share rule for each $20 mil in royalty rev...you can use your imagination :)
at $50 mil we're talking $22/share. and abbott is the first licensee of what could be a dozen or so...imaging will be very big and not far off like therapy.
cannon revs in the 10's of millions to BOCX means revs in the hundreds of millions to the licensees. i don't think that is particularly conservative for the diagnostic application. if the data is for real, though, yes it is very conservative as RECAF would become a billion dollar product.
Cannonball: Read Wittenberg's quote again -- he said revenues in the 10's of millions WITHOUT COSTS INCREASING. That is the whole point of a royalty business model -- smaller dollars but no overhead. I used $19 mil as my earnings, which is $20 mil in revs minus $1 mil in fixed overhead (the current burn rate). You can bump up the fixed overhead # if you like and it won't make much of a difference.
Jazz One your analysis is much appreciated as I have been unable to listen to the webcast. It simply doesn't work on my computer for some reason.
Regarding the comment "we expect revenues in the first couple of years to be in the 10's of millions with no further expense on our part"
-- Quick and dirty analysis on the good dr.'s projection...Expenses are currently around $1 mil. Let's take $20 mil in revs, and 50 mil shares outstanding, and a biotech industry standard p/e of 30. That's .38 EPS, or $11.40/share!! Now let's discount back 20% for time/risk and we get $9.12/share.
So think of it this way...every $20 mil in licensee revenue is worth around $9/share to BOCX.
grandma: that's good to know, I was confusing it with JCO, which is ASCO's journal.
The big factor really is money. If we did an offering -- even a less than noble one like a PIPE -- it would solve most of our problems in that department. First of all we could get an instant AMEX listing if we raised $2 mil or more. Second of all we could afford heavy hitting P.R and biz dev firms. Third of all we could sponsor a larger independant study. And on and on.
We are basically broke. The question is, did the Abbott P.R open financing doors like the company has been inferring in their P.R's.
cannonball i like that part is well. moro has to remember that this is a public company with investors, not a private R&D outfit.
Interesting article on recent developments in the IVD industry, posted by our prescient Gooodman on RB:
Diagnostic Tests
This year, new tests relied on a variety of technologies to generate more-accurate and -useful results more quickly. New tests are available for everything from physical illness to biowarfare agents.
Cancer. The market potential for individualized cancer diagnostics has grown so strong that Johnson & Johnson has established an independent company called Veridex (Warren, NJ) that will be devoted exclusively to oncological IVDs. The company is initially developing two complementary assay platforms. One of these platforms, called Cellsearch, identifies, enumerates, and characterizes circulating tumor cells directly from whole blood. The other platform, Genesearch, uses molecular technology to diagnose, stage, and more accurately characterize tumors. FDA has approved the Cellsearch Epithelial Cell kit under a de novo classification.
For use in acute-care settings, the Triage Shortness of Breath Panel by Biosite Inc. (San Diego) aids in risk stratification of patients with coronary symptoms.
Beckman Coulter (Fullerton, CA) has placed a new test for breast cancer on the U.S. market. The BR Monitor test provides quantitative determination of cancer antigen 15-3 levels in human serum. According to company representatives, this marker is more sensitive than carcinoembryonic antigen in detecting recurrent breast cancer. The BR Monitor test can be used to manage cancer treatment. The test is available on the company’s Access, Access 2, and Unicell DxI 800 Access immunoassay systems, as well as on the Synchron LXi 725 clinical system.
Amidst a lively debate in the literature over how effective they are and how their results should be used, many prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests were developed this year. Abbott Laboratories (Abbott Park, IL) received FDA approval for two PSA tests. The tests include Total PSA (TPSA) and Free PSA tests, which are designed for use on the company’s AxSYM and IMx instruments.
In addition, bioMerieux (Marcy l’Etoile, France) received FDA approval for its Vidas TPSA assay. The test is a fully automated enzyme-linked fluorescent immunoassay and has been designed for use on the company’s Vitek immunodiagnostic assay system.
Cardiovascular. Many companies have beefed up the menus of their immunodiagnostic systems with the addition of new cardiovascular tests. Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics (Raritan, NJ) expanded its immunoassay cardiology menu with the addition of its myoglobin assay.
The test requires a sample size of 10 µl and, when run on the company’s Vitros ECi system, generates results in 16 minutes. In addition, the assay range is 0–2000 ng/ml and analytical sensitivity is less than 2.0 ng/ml with precision across the entire myoglobin range.
According to Michael S. Parmacel, MD, chief of cardiovascular medicine at the University of Pennsylvania (Philadelphia), “Based on the American College of Cardiology’s new criteria for diagnosing myocardial infarction, troponin has become the gold standard in diagnostic testing.” As such, many major IVD companies have released new and improved tests for Troponin-I (TnI).
The Acute Care Troponin I assay (cTnI) by Dade Behring (Deerfield, IL) is the first troponin test cleared by FDA as high sensitivity. With a sensitivity of less than 0.03 ng/ml and a precision of 8.2 CV at the 99th percentile of normal (0.07 ng/ml), the Acute Care cTnI meets the European Society of Cardiology (Sophia Antipolis, France) and American College of Cardiology (Bethesda, MD) recommendation of less than 10% coefficient of variation at the 99th percentile of normal.
Performed directly on blood samples, the Anthrax Quick ELISA by Immunetics Inc. (Boston) delivers results in 45 minutes.
The test generates results quickly and thus can prove advantageous when used in acute-care settings. Use of the assay may result in a reduction of turnaround time from 76 minutes for tests conducted in a central lab to less than 20 minutes for tests performed in an acute-care setting. It has been cleared for use in the United States as an aid in the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and in the risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndrome. The test is run on the company’s Stratus CS Acute Care diagnostic system.
Response Biomedical (Burnaby, BC, Canada) placed a new test for the cardiac marker on the U.S. market as well. The company’s RAMP Cardiac Marker Test for detecting TnI is designed for use as a point-of-care test (POCT) and provides a quantitative result in 15 minutes.
Abbott Laboratories has received FDA approval for its Stat TnI assay. The assay has been designed with the goal of improving standardization and sensitivity. The test’s calibrators are traceable to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST; Gaithersburg, MD) value-assigned candidate reference material near the acute myocardial infarction (AMI) cutoff. The assay detects concentrations of TnI closer to zero with confidence, allowing the cardiac marker to be detected earlier. The test was designed for use on the company’s Architect i2000SR immunoassay and Architect ci8200 immunochemistry systems.
The company has also received approval for its Troponin-I ADV assay, which has been designed for use on the company’s AxSYM automated immunoassay instrument.
Roche Diagnostics has received FDA clearance for its Troponin T Stat test. This test has been approved for use as an aid in the differential diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome, for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndrome, and for cardiac risk in patients with chronic renal failure.
Abbott Laboratories has added a creatine kinase MB (CK-MB) test to the menu of its Architect ci8200 immunochemistry system. The manufacturer has also added the Stat CK-MB test to the menu of both the ci8200 and its Architect i2000SR systems. The FDA-cleared tests can help doctors determine whether a patient’s heart muscle has suffered damage. The instruments deliver results of the CK-MB tests within 18 minutes.
Abbott and Axis-Shield (Dundee, UK) have received clearance to sell their B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) test in the United States. The test is designed for use on Abbott’s AxSYM system, and can be used to detect early signs of cardiac dysfunction as well as overt heart failure.
Dade Behring has received FDA clearance to sell its N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) test in the United States. The test runs on the company’s Dimension instruments to aid in the diagnosis of patients who present with symptoms of congestive heart failure.
The Immulite 2500 SMS immunoassay system by Diagnostic Products Corp. (Los Angeles) provides improved stat testing capability.
Dade Behring has received approval to market its N high- sensitivity CRP assay as an independent marker for cardiovascular disease risk prevention. The test is designed to run on the company’s BN instruments and is the first hsCRP assay to receive FDA clearance with a cardiac-specific claim.
In addition to individual tests for cardiovascular function, this year a panel of tests designed to examine a range of cardiovascular factors received FDA approval. The Triage Shortness of Breath panel by Biosite Inc. (San Diego) measures the levels of five biomarkers including BNP, D-dimer, myoglobin, CK-MB, and cardiac troponin I. Results are generated in 15 minutes. The test is performed on whole blood in a one-step operation using a small disposable IVD and the Triage Meterplus portable meter.
The test is designed for use with patients who present with shortness of breath in emergency-care settings and for the diagnosis or assessment of congestive heart failure or disseminated intravascular coagulation, and for the risk stratification of patients with acute coronary symptoms. The company is also developing a stroke panel.
Neurodegenerative. Although most of the progress this year on tests for neurodegenerative disorders has been in the research arena, Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp. (Maywood, NJ) filed a PMA application with FDA for the company’s Alzheimer’s test. The Alzheimalert test measures in urine the level of a brain protein called neural thread protein to help practitioners diagnose Alzheimer’s.
Celera Diagnostics (Alameda, CA) and Merck & Co. (Whitehouse Station, NJ) have entered into a collaboration to find novel targets for diagnostic markers related to Alzheimer’s disease. Under the terms of the agreement, Celera will retain the rights to diagnostic applications from the studies. Also, CombiMatrix (Mukilteo, WA) and Case Western Reserve University (Cleveland) are collaborating on an Alzheimer’s diagnostic using the company’s Customarray platform.
In addition, the IVD industry and research communities are making an effort to develop better tests for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston), the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, and Metabolon (Research Triangle Park, NC) are working on an ALS Association–funded study to develop a more rapid and accurate diagnostic test for ALS using biomarkers found in blood and cerebrospinal fluid.
Infectious disease. Many tests designed to better diagnose infectious diseases were released this year. Abbott Laboratories brought a fully automated hepatitis A assay to the U.S. market. The HAVAB-M 2.0 uses microparticle enzyme immunoassay methodology to detect the IgM antibody to hepatitis A and is designed for use on the company’s AxSYM system.
Bayer received FDA approval for a new hepatitis B test. The Anti-HBs assay is run on the Advia Centaur immunoassay system. The test detects the presence of antibodies to the hepatitis B surface antigen in blood, thereby helping physicians determine whether a patient has achieved a protective immunity to the virus. The assay is the company’s first installment in a series of tests that it will offer as a comprehensive and fully automated infectious-disease testing panel that will include a tests for HBV, HAV, HCV, and HIV.
Hepatitis B tests from Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics also received FDA approval this year. The Anti-HBc and Anti-HBc IgM assays are designed for the company’s fully automated random-access Vitros Eci immunodiagnostic system.
Trinity Biotech (Bray, Co. Wicklow, Ireland) has received clearance to market its Captia herpes simplex virus (HSV) IgG type-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) in the United States. The products detect IgG antibodies to HSV 1 and 2 in human serum and are among the first HSV type-specific ELISAs to receive FDA approval. The tests use recombinant glycoproteins gG-1 and gG-2, which are specific to types 1 and 2 of the virus respectively, and differentiate between antibodies to types 1 and 2. The glycoproteins minimize cross-reactivity. The tests perform with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 99%.
Nanogen (San Diego) and Prodesse (Waukesha, WI) are working together to develop automated and highly sensitive microarray-based products to detect a number of infectious- disease agents including influenza, pneumonia, adenovirus, herpes, West Nile Virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The tests will speed up the delivery of results from a turnaround time of a week or longer for current culture-based techniques to a turnaround time of a few hours. The new line of products will be based upon an integration of Prodesse’s multiplex amplification technology with Nanogen’s Nanochip platform and will be marketed to healthcare providers and clinical reference laboratories.
Meridian Bioscience Inc. (Cincinnati) began marketing a rapid influenza A and B test for use in physician offices and small labs. The test differentiates between the A and B strains of influenza.
Many tests for viruses that could be used for terrorism or biowarfare were placed on the market this year. FDA cleared the first commercially available antibody test for Bacillus anthracis. The Anthrax Quick ELISA test by Immunetics Inc. (Boston) is performed directly on blood samples and is faster and easier to interpret than previous antibody testing methods. It works by detecting antibodies to a key component of the anthrax bacillus that forms part of the toxin responsible for its lethal effects. The test can be performed in less than an hour, compared with 4 hours required for other methods.
FDA also cleared for use in the United States a test kit for anthrax that is designed for use in clinical laboratories. The Redline Alert test by Tetracore Inc. (Gaithersburg, MD) uses a laboratory culture of bacterial cells to distinguish B. anthracis cells from other organisms. The test delivers results within 15 minutes. When a positive result is received, confirmatory testing is required to definitively identify B. anthracis.
Veterinary. Due to the transfer of diseases from animals to humans, many new tests were approved for the veterinary market this year. As bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) made its first recorded appearance in the United States this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) stepped up its monitoring of beef cattle and approved several rapid tests for BSE.
Roche (Basel, Switzerland) gained permission to market the Prionics-Check Western kit by Greiner Diagnostics (Langenthal, Switzerland), which it licensed from Prionics (Schlieren, Switzerland). The test relies on a Western blot technique that results in a fingerprint of the infectious particle. The test delivered no false-positive results in 18 million tested samples. Prionics has also developed a Check LIA test that is based on an ELISA platform. This test is in use in Europe.
USDA also approved the rapid Enfer BSE test marketed in the United States by Abbott and developed by Enfer Scientific (Newbridge, Co. Kildare, Ireland). The test provides results within hours, and tests every bovine brain sample in duplicate. If either test is reactive, the specimen is resampled and retested in duplicate.
Idexx Laboratories (Westbrook, ME) received USDA approval for its HerdChek BSE test, which is based on Seprion technology licensed from Microsens (London). For faster turnaround time than other rapid tests, HerdChek simplifies testing procedures by eliminating complex protein digestion steps in the sample preparation process. This saves technician time and effort, and reduces the potential for error.
USDA also granted approval to the Tesee (formerly Platelia) BSE test by Bio-Rad Laboratories (Hercules, CA). The test was developed in collaboration with the French atomic energy administration, the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique (EA Paris). The test relies on ELISA technology.
Lastly, Beckman Coulter received USDA approval for the BSE test that it licensed from InPro (San Francisco) for sale in the United States. This Conformation-Dependent Immunoassay (CDI-5) sets itself apart from the first generation of BSE tests in that it relies on a detection technique that does not destroy any of the disease-causing forms of the prion protein.
The Variant II Turbo hemoglobin testing system by Bio-Rad Laboratories (Hercules, CA) features whole blood primary-tube sampling.
All of the rapid tests approved for BSE testing in the United States are conducted postmortem on bovine brain samples. However, many companies are working toward a test that can be performed on a live animal. GeneThera (Wheat Ridge, CO) has developed one such test, although it is not yet commercially available. The test uses the company’s proprietary genetic expression assay technology to detect and quantify BSE proteins in blood samples.
West Nile Virus (WNV) made its way entirely across the United States this year, and hit the West Coast heavily. Meanwhile, manufacturers released more-sophisticated tests for the virus. Focus Technologies (Cypress, CA) received FDA clearance for its third-generation IgM and IgG ELISA test kits. The tests have a sensitivity and specificity ranging from 91 to 99%. In addition, Gen-Probe (San Diego) began WNV testing under an investigational (IND) protocol with its Procleix WNV assay on the company’s Tigris system. The test allows donated-blood screening centers to test individual blood samples on a high-throughput, fully automated nucleic acid testing (NAT) system.
Another disease prevalent in animals that has gained attention this year is avian influenza. USDA has developed a reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-based test for avian flu. The test initially screens for any type-A influenza and then performs a subtyping step with which it confirms the sample and what specific subtype it is. Eventually, USDA is planning to work with an IVD manufacturer to put the test into a single-kit format for commercial production.
Laboratory Instruments
With an eye to easing troubleshooting, QC, and general management of IVD systems, manufacturers have released advanced software-driven instrument management. Many manufacturers of larger IVD systems equip their instruments with software, such as DRM software by Axeda Systems Inc. and remote testing management software by Nova Biomedical, that allows for remote monitoring and software upgrades.
Laboratorians can now oversee multiple types of testing at one time as an alternative to relying on one machine that can “do it all.” Beckman Coulter has introduced a centralized system designed to simplify and automate lab processes such as workflow and decision-making steps. Command Central connects up to 12 Beckman instruments, including chemistry, immunoassay, hematology, and automation platforms. The system operator can access instruments via a network connection in real time.
In addition to instrument management issues, end-users are demanding connectivity and advanced data management solutions for everything from rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) to systems for the core lab. According to David Pearman, field product manager, homeostasis and thrombosis diagnostics for Helena Laboratories (Knox, IN), “Even the smallest institution (even a doctor’s office) wants data management in order to be HIPAA compliant.”
Clinical chemistry. Nova Biomedical (Waltham, MA) has introduced the Stat Profile Critical Care Xpress, which can measure blood gases, electrolytes, chemistry, and hematology with onboard CO oximetry. The test menu is custom configured, but can include as many as 19 measured and 29 calculated tests such as pH, PCO2, PO2, SO2, hematocrit and hemoglobin, sodium, potassium, chloride, ionized calcium, ionized magnesium, glucose, BUN, creatine, and lactate.
Snap-in reagent packs contain all required liquid and gas calibrators and onboard controls. The system requires 50 µl of whole blood for a gas panel and 200 µl of sample for all measured tests. An automated, onboard quality control cartridge eliminates the manual steps involved in the QC regimen and onboard data management software allows for custom configuration of touch screen layouts as well as data capture and output.
A fully automated random-access immunochemistry system features enhanced performance for protein analysis. The Immage 800 by Beckman Coulter offers 40 assays, including hsCRP and other protein, serology, and drug tests. Users can configure the test menu to meet their unique requirements. The system has the ability to append samples while it is running, and allows users to flag antigen access, plot UDR data curves, and perform single-point update calibrations.
Clinical Data (Smithfield, RI) received FDA clearance to market its Vitalab Selectra-XL in the United States. This random-access, “walk-away” clinical chemistry analyzer offers a wide range of testing including clinical chemistry, special proteins, drugs of abuse, therapeutic drug monitoring and electrolytes. With a throughput of 400 tests per hour, it is designed for the small to medium-sized laboratory or as a backup or special chemistries analyzer for a larger laboratory.
Immunoassay. Diagnostic Products Corp. (Los Angeles) has launched its Immulite 2500 SMS immunoassay system. The system provides improved stat testing capability with logic-driven incubation and a sample management system. Available applications include cardiac, routine, esoteric, infectious-disease, and allergy testing. The sample management feature allows the system to link to any open laboratory automation solution and perform no-pause loading and unloading of up to 200 samples.
Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics introduced the Vitros EciQ immunodiagnostic system. The system software provides new verification procedures. Reagent aspiration verification, sample plus reagent verification, and well-wash dispense verification help to ensure release of a proper reagent volume, confirm that the proper assay and reagent volumes are contained in the well, and confirm that the proper wash process has been completed. In addition, the system features e-Connectivity system management that allows company support teams to have real-time access to the system.
Bio-Rad received approval for a clinical diagnostics system that offers multiplexing technology on a fully automated, fully integrated random-access platform. The BioPlex 2200 fully automates bead-based multiplexing, can deliver up to 2200 results per hour, and provides clinical informatics to aid in diagnosis. Tests initially available on the system will be used to diagnose autoimmune diseases and disorders. Assays in development for the system include those in the areas of serology, infectious disease, cardiac, and toxicology.
Olympus (Melville, NY) released its AU-30001 immunoassay system. The instrument can process as many as 240 tests per hour with no-pause loading and stat interrupt. The system uses chemiluminescent detection to deliver good linearity for fertility, thyroid, tumor, anemia, and cardiac panels.
In an effort to make molecular testing available for smaller and point-of-care labs, Iquum Inc. (Allston, MA) has developed a system based on its lab-in-a-tube (Liat) technology. The system is designed to facilitate molecular testing for infectious and genetic diseases, as well as field testing for biological agents. With Liat technology, results are available in 30 minutes to an hour.
Biofons Diagnostics (Turku, Finland) has developed a novel immunochemical method that uses membrane-surface plasmon resonance for sensitive and specific results. The company’s Specimat system has been created to meet the need for rapid diagnostics in smaller-volume laboratories. CRP testing is the first application available on the system.
The Vanguard OMT rapid lateral-flow test by Calypte Biomedical Corp. (Pleasanton, CA) can detect HIV1 and 2 in oral fluid.
Hematology. In an effort to reduce manual test procedures, patient sample size, and required repeats, Bayer (Tarrytown, NY) has provided automated hematology testing on its Advia 2120 system. The newly launched system has automated such labor-intensive tests as cerebrospinal fluid analysis, reticulocyte tests, and complete blood counts. Quality control is enhanced by internal verification of every sample by using two methodologies to compare test results.
Designed for mid- to high-volume laboratories, the Coulter LH 500 by Beckman Coulter offers complete blood cell counts with five-part differential analysis and features advanced three-dimensional volume, conductivity, scatter technology. The instrument’s expanded linearity limits extend from zero to 200,000 cells/ml for WBCs, while platelet linearity extends from zero to 2 million cells/ml. The system provides continuous sample loading, and stat samples can be run with minimal interruption.
Sysmex (Mundelein, IL) received FDA clearance for its pocH-100i hematology analyzer. The system performs an automated complete blood cell and a three-point differential with a true neutrophil count. Sampling is done in closed-tube manner. Although this low-volume instrument is designed for the clinical laboratory and physician office market, technology and results are comparable with other Sysmex systems.
Stanbio Laboratory (Boerne, TX) received a CLIA waiver for its Hemapoint H2 system, which serves as a dedicated hemoglobin and hematocrit meter for use in physician offices, clinics, and blood centers. The instrument consists of a microcuvette along with a photometer to measure hemoglobin in whole blood. The system requires 10 µl of whole blood. System specifications include a linear range of 0 to 23.5 g/dl and within-run and total precision CVs are less than 2%.
Abaxis (Union City, CA) has introduced a new hematology analyzer for the veterinary market. The Vetscan HMII hematology system provides an 18-point complete blood count analysis including a three-part white blood cell differential in a compact instrument.
FDA cleared the high-throughput Galileo blood bank automation system by ImmucourGamma (Norcross, GA). The system offers continuous access while processing 224 different samples at once. The test menu includes blood typing, antibody screening, antibody identification, donor confirmation, cross-match, DAT, and weak D testing. The instrument relies on the company’s proprietary Capture solid-phase technology and full process controls.
Other systems. The speed and precision of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) power a new hemoglobin analyzer from Primus Corp. (Kansas City, MO). The Ultra2 A1c and hemoglobin variants analyzer measures hemoglobin levels and identifies and quantifies hemoglobin variants for glycemic control. The A1c assay uses HPLC and boronate affinity columns to assess glycemic status in 2 minutes. The system features automated sample handling, bar code reading, and on-line sample preparation from the primary tube.
The Cozmonitor glucose monitor by Smiths Medical (London) works together with an insulin pump to form an integrated glucose management system.
Another new hemoglobin analyzer that relies on HPLC is the Variant II Turbo hemoglobin testing system by Bio-Rad Laboratories. The system doubles the throughput capacity of the company’s top-performing HbA1c method. The system relies on the company’s HbA1c reagent kit and features whole blood primary-tube sampling.
Beckman Coulter released its ACL 8000 coagulation analyzer to help speed hemostatis testing. Approximately 40 clotting, immunoturbidimetric, and chromogenic assays are available on the system, including tests for D-dimer, Von Williebrand antigen, and free protein S. Result accuracy is enhanced by the system’s automated reflux and rerun testing capabilities, along with the instrument’s clot signature curve technology. Computer-based centrifugal analysis allows for 18 samples to be tested at one time in each 20-cuvette rotor. The instrument has an onboard capacity of 40 samples and 18 reagents. The company has also released its ACL 10,000 analyzer, which includes an optional capper/decapper and features an onboard capacity of 40 samples, 22 reagents, and 260 cuvettes.
For near-patient testing, the Clinitek Status by Bayer Diagnostics provides a fully automated urinalysis instrument. The system features a 200-test-result memory, paper printouts of results, and a touch screen display. The company also released the Clinitest hCG pregnancy test that is designed for use exclusively with the Clinitek analyzer.
Approved for use in both Europe and the United States, the Factor V Leiden and Factor II (Prothrombin) G20210A kits by Roche Diagnostics (Indianapolis) aid in the evaluation of patients suspected of having thrombophilia.
Roche Diagnostics has also released a urinalysis system for physician office applications. The Urisys 1100 analyzer is a small, semiquantitative analyzer that features 100-result memory function, immediate result printouts, interfacing capability to PC or network, and quality assurance functions.
Veridex has planned a fall 2004 release for its CellSearch system. The system is the first automated instrument to identify and count circulating tumor cells in peripheral blood. Results will be used to predict progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with metastatic breast cancer.
Point-of-Care Tests
New diagnostics on the POCT market demonstrate advances in ease of use and effectiveness. With POCTs now available in virtually every medical sector of the IVD market, manufacturers are now striving for improvements in standardization of results. This factor depends a good deal on built-in protection for standard sampling and simple test processes so that user error is minimized.
Manufacturers are also working to improve sensitivity and specificity of these devices so that results obtained from point-of-care IVDs approach the accuracy of laboratory tests. Lastly, smaller continues to be better. Advances in miniaturization technologies hold promise for enhancing portability and cost-effectiveness of POCTs.
Lastly, while most POCTs offer a yes or no quantitative result, the market calls for tests that offer more versatility. POCT systems that offer such versatility are generally dedicated systems that are not economically justifiable for most facilities. Once industry can make such systems affordable for more consumers, the market for POCT will grow substantially.
HIV. Many new POCTs for HIV were placed on the market this year. With a record 5 million people having been infected with AIDS last year alone, HIV continues to be a major concern around the world. With boosted funding to fight HIV and AIDS, the market for new and improved HIV tests continues to thrive.
Experts from the United Nations called for required routine HIV testing in clinics around the globe, citing the statistic that 90% of those infected with AIDS are unaware that they are carrying it. The current strategy of leaving it to patients to request a test is not working to curb the spread of the disease and more-widespread testing may lead to earlier diagnosis and reduced transmission.
Although the HIV test market is booming, not much attention has been paid to the ramifications of POCT for the virus. “There is little feedback or follow-up studies on the implications of carrying out these tests in the doctor’s office,” says Tony Forde, associate director of The Circa Group Europe Ltd. (Galway, Ireland).
Beckman Coulter has filed a 510(k) application with FDA for the company’s portable and automated test for monitoring drug therapy for HIV/AIDS patients. The Pointcare system uses gold-coated microparticles to perform CD4 monitoring and is suitable for use in remote locations.
The OraQuick rapid point-of-care HIV test by OraSure Technologies (Bethlehem, PA), which last year received FDA approval for testing fingerstick and whole blood samples for HIV1, this year received FDA approval for testing oral fluid and plasma samples for the virus as well. FDA extended the test’s clearance for testing all of these specimen types for both HIV1 and HIV2 strains of the virus, and also gave the test a CLIA waiver. The OraQuick test generates results within 20 minutes.
FDA also granted approval for the marketing and sale of the Uni-Gold Recombigen HIV test by Trinity Biotech (Dublin, Ireland). The test detects antibodies to HIV in human serum, plasma, or whole blood. The protocol involves only one step and produces results within 10 minutes. In clinical trials, the product demonstrated a test sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of over 99.7%.
In addition, Efoora (Buffalo Grove, IL) has received approval to market its Efoora rapid HIV test, which works on whole blood, fingerstick whole blood, serum, and plasma, and can provide a result in 20 minutes.
Calypte Biomedical Corp. (Pleasanton, CA) has completed initial field trials of its lateral-flow rapid diagnostic HIV1 and 2 tests. The company is developing several rapid tests, one for use with oral fluid, another with blood, and a third with urine. In the trials, the blood, oral fluid, and urine tests performed with accuracies of 100%, 99.8%, and 99.6%, respectively. The tests performed so well that Abbott Laboratories signed a sublease agreement to gain rights to patents relating to the design, manufacture, and sale of the tests.
Chembio Diagnostic Systems (Medford, NY) has begun clinical trials in the United States of its Sure Check HIV and HIV Stat-Pak tests. In clinical trials in Mexico, the tests performed with a sensitivity and specificity of 100%. The tests are designed to detect antibodies to HIV in fingerstick blood, whole blood, serum, or plasma. Both deliver results within 15 minutes.
Glucose monitoring. The diabetes care market continues to comprise a large part of the POCT market. Glucose monitors released this year offer advances in device capabilities as well as functionality, and the ability to be integrated with insulin pumps. The market received monitors that can perform continuous monitoring and monitors that work as one system with an insulin pump.
Smiths Medical (London) has released its Cozmonitor blood glucose module. The device uses Freestyle Flash technology from Abbott. The module works in tandem with the Deltec Cozmo insulin pump to form an integrated insulin pump and glucose-monitoring system.
Medtronic (Minneapolis) has released a stand-alone continuous glucose-monitoring system. The FDA-approved Guardian system must be calibrated at least twice per day and uses a glucose sensor to continuously record blood sugar readings for up to three days. An alarm sounds when readings reach high- or low-level limits preset by the user.
Early this year, Roche introduced its Accu-Check Go blood glucose monitor. The monitor incorporates an out-of-the-meter blood application where test strips that feature a capillary fill are inserted into the meter prior to blood expression and then a blood sample of 1.5 µl is drawn into the meter via the capillary strip. The device features reminder alarms and a test-strip ejector.
A blood glucose–monitoring system that integrates a meter and an electronic logbook is available from LifeScan (Milpitas, CA). The Onetouch Ultrasmart system has been designed to replace the traditional paper logbook used for recording test results. The system requires a 1-µl sample and generates glucose test readings in 5 seconds. System software allows input of information relating to food, exercise, medication, and overall health. It also helps identify blood glucose patterns and note the need for treatment changes.
Other applications. IVD manufacturers have added POCTs to many other IVD market sectors. From drugs-of-abuse (DOA) tests to critical-care tests, these devices can speed decision making to help save lives or take immediate action in an emergency.
For the critical-care POCT market, Roche Diagnostics released four new models of its Omni S 1-4 POC analyzer, which allows users to choose an optimized parameter portfolio for their information needs. Each model is tailored to the needs of a different critical-care setting, such as intensive care units; emergency rooms; operating rooms; and remote labs, recovery rooms, neonatal units, and renal dialysis. Parameters such as blood gases, electrolytes, total hemoglobin, hemoglobin derivatives, hematocrit, and bilirubin are available on the high-end analyzer.
To aid in national defense, BioVeris Corp. (Gaithersburg, MD) introduced its M-series M1M analyzer. This automated and portable analyzer uses electrochemiluminescence to detect chemical and biowarfare agents in the field or laboratory. The analyzer can detect botulism neurotoxins, anthrax, ricin, and staphylococcal enterotoxins A and B. The instrument can also be used with tests that the company is developing for the U.S. Department of Defense.
OraSure Technologies submitted a 510(k) application for its Uplink analyzer and oral fluid assays for DOA testing. The POC system is based on the company’s up-converting phosphor technology and can deliver results of tests for cocaine, opiates, amphetamine, PCP, and marijuana from one oral fluid sample.
For weekly International Normalized Ratio (INR) testing at home, LifeScan has introduced its Harmony INR monitoring system. This blood-clotting-time test system uses fingerstick blood to generate results within 90 seconds.
DiaSys Corp. (Waterbury, CT) introduced 10 POC rapid tests. The four cardiac marker POCTs include troponin I, CK-MB, myoglobin, and CRP. Three tests for cancer markers include Id1, HMGA2, and alpha fetoprotein. Lastly, tests for malaria, dengue IgG and IgM, and neonatal TSH are available. Each will be sold in a POC rapid-test configuration.
Molecular Diagnostics
Molecular-based IVDs are gradually being released onto the market. Industry has billed this technology as the face of the future of IVDs, but before effective tests and devices can be released, IVD manufacturers must overcome numerous technological hurdles.
Protein arrays are one platform that holds promise for molecular diagnostics. Thus far, bead-based arrays are in use for some measurements, while solid-phase arrays are gaining ground and have potential for use in others. Although protein arrays are making their way from the research lab to the IVD market, some find that the available technology has yet to reach acceptable standards.
“Protein arrays must prove to have the reproducibility required by [the IVD] industry in order to gain acceptance,” notes John Tonkinson, PhD, director of sales and scientific services for Prometheus Laboratories (Keene, NH). “That hurdle will be difficult, but not impossible, to go over.” According to Tonkinson, the availability of high-throughput, high-resolution laser scanners for microplate footprints will increase the rate at which protein arrays will find their way to the IVD market.
Randox Laboratories Ltd. (Crumlin, UK) manufactures biochip arrays and is making headway in broaching the diagnostics market. The company’s Evidence system can carry out a panel of tests on a single chip, but allows technicians the option of downloading (and paying) for a single test. If, at a later stage, further markers are required to provide additional information on that patient, the system can call on data stored in its memory bank.
The biochip reaction platform comprises multiple specific ligands attached at predefined sites on the chip surface. When the patient sample is added to the biochip, analytes in the sample bind to specific ligands. The degree of binding is determined via a chemiluminescent light source and quantified using a CCD camera and imaging system. The instrument can run in excess of 2700 tests per hour.
Gen-Probe received FDA approval for sexually transmitted disease testing on its Tigris DTS system. The Tigris instrument is the first fully automated, high-throughput instrument for the molecular diagnostics marketplace. “I don’t think there is anything comparable on the market,” notes Katie Smith, PhD, senior director, diagnostics clinical research & regulatory affairs for Prometheus Laboratories (San Diego). “It may revolutionize nucleic acid assays by controlling possible contamination, reducing labor costs to perform the assays, and increasing test throughput,” says Smith.
FDA has approved the system for running the company’s Aptima Combo 2 assay, a nucleic acid test that simultaneously detects Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae.
The Tigris system can process approximately 500 samples in an 8-hour shift and up to 1000 samples in 13 hours. The company is now working to expand the menu of clinical tests for the system.
Affymetrix (Santa Clara, CA) achieved another first in the marketing of molecular diagnostics. The company’s GeneChip System 3000Dx received the CE mark. The instrument is the first microarray system on the market for clinical diagnostics. It comprises a scanner complete with an autoloader, a fluidics station, and proprietary software. The system allows laboratories to analyze such microarray diagnostics as the AmpliChip CYP450 test, by Roche Diagnostics, for drug metabolism profiles.
Correlogic Systems Inc. (Bethesda, MD) released its OvaCheck test without FDA review because company representatives believed that its operations as a high-complexity laboratory under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Ammendments of 1988 (CLIA) were sufficient. Nonetheless, FDA’s Office of In Vitro Diagnostic Device Regulation and Safety (OIVD; Washington, DC) determined that, if installed at laboratories outside of Correlogic’s CLIA-affiliated facility, the protein-pattern recognition software necessary to perform the OvaCheck test will be subject to FDA regulation.
Ventana Medical Systems (Tucson) released its human papillomavirus (HPV) test as an ASR. Initially, FDA asked the company to pull the test from the market because the agency disagreed with the company’s assertion that the test was exempt from review. However, after meeting with the company, FDA gave the company permission to market the test.
After its initial launch and ensuing OIVD oversight, Roche’s CYP450 AmpliChip is still under FDA review. However, several other companies are developing CYP450 tests. Third Wave Technologies has released its CYP450 2D6 analysis panel for use in clinical trials of pharmaceuticals. AutoGenomics and Gentris Corp. are working to integrate Gentris’s CYP450 diagnostics into AutoGenomics’ automated Infiniti platform.
To aid in cardiovascular diagnostics, Roche Diagnostics received clearance to market its Factor V Leiden (FVL) and Factor II (Prothrombin) G20210A kits in both the United States and the European Union. The tests rely on RT-PCR to aid in the detection and genotyping of inherited mutations in the genes that encode proteins associated with inherited thrombophilia. The tests were developed for use on the company’s Lightcycler instrument.
Several new molecular diagnostics for cancer have been placed on the market. FDA approved the Rapid Capture system by Digene Corp. (Gaithersburg, MD) that allows for high-throughput testing with the company’s hc2 High-Risk HPV DNA test. With this system, 352 patient specimens can be analyzed for the presence of the cervical cancer–associated virus by one technologist in 6.5 hours.
Many tests released this year for HPV, a virus that causes cervical cancer, rely on molecular diagnostics for detecting the virus. The Amplicor HPV test kit by Roche is a PCR-based test that can identify all 13 high-risk HPV genotypes. Roche representatives intend the test to be used to resolve inconclusive results obtained from Pap tests. The manufacturer is also developing a PCR-based linear-array HPV product for use in confirming positive cervical cancer–screening results and providing information about the HPV subtype to aid with treatment.
In an effort to reduce the number of colposcopies that result from HPV-positive diagnoses, TriPath Imaging (Burlington, NC) is developing a second-generation, cytology-based cervical cancer test. The test will target patients with atypical low-grade lesions as well as those who test positive for HPV but negative on Pap tests.
OncoMethylome Sciences (Durham, NC) has received a U.S. patent for its gene methylation technology for the prediction of clinical response to certain types of chemotherapeutic treatment of cancer patients. The company is developing an assay based on this technology and has an ongoing clinical trial program to demonstrate the utility of the assay to predict chemotherapeutic response.
Although molecular technologies are just taking their first steps into the clinical diagnostics marketplace, they clearly hold promise for the future of IVDs. Molecular diagnostics and miniaturization technologies will literally shape the face of new devices. NanoInk (Chicago) is developing one such technology.
The company is developing technology to be used in the ultraminiaturization of DNA arrays. According to the company’s CEO, Dip Pen Nanolithography has the potential to revolutionize diagnostics by facilitating the development of smaller, faster, more-sensitive assays that can serve the POC diagnostics and biodefense markets.
Conclusion
With new molecular products on the market, an increased demand for instruments with greater automation and connectivity, and ever-increasing opportunities for bringing POCTs for a variety of samples to market, it has been a prosperous year for IVD companies. Requests for partnership from pharmaceutical companies have planted the seeds for the future of personalized medicine.
In addition to smaller, less-expensive, faster, and more-accurate traditional IVDs, new tests are in development that are tied intimately to pharmaceuticals. More and more of these personalized-medicine IVDs will likely be introduced into the marketplace in upcoming years.
Future advances in IVDs will bring diagnostic testing even closer to the patient, and provide more-accurate, faster, and simpler testing to the marketplace. As IVD manufacturers deliver on the promise for ever-better diagnostics, IVD Technology will be here to take note of their progress.
Jennifer Zakroff is associate editor of IVD Technology.
All the trades at the ask indicate it might be good...either that or people think it might be good ;)
Dakota: definitely an established uptrend, but who knows when the next leg up will be.
cannon the only discouraging thing about the conversation is that I asked him when he'd get the ball rolling and he laughed and said "that's a good question." so my impression was that he will move at the snail's pace of academia. he is not a corporation like abbott who i imagine has the process very streamlines (ie assign a project manager who is accountable for deadlines).
grandma/cannon: also don't forget that the guy at Goshen who approached BOCX (Dr. Schwartzentruber) is on the editorial board of the American Journal of Oncology Review. That is the JAMA of oncology. I've spoken directly with Dr. Schwartzentruber and asked him if he would be publishing studies in the big journals...he said "that's the whole point of what we do." For those of you that weren't around when I reported on my conversation with Dr. Schwarzentruber, he also said that Goshen's focus would be almost entirely on the imaging aspects of RECAF. He said a "major company" is already running with the diagnostic application. And by the way, this guy contacted BOCX out of the blue after seeing their prelim data not the other way around. Aside from his ties to the leading oncology peer-reviewed journal, his grounding is 100% in clinical trials. This guy spent 13 years as a senior investigator for NIH ("investigator" meaning clinical trial investigator), which is by far the largest operator of clinical trials in the world.
"Dr. Douglas Schwartzentruber is a surgical oncologist who completed a fellowship in Immunotherapy at the National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland where he subsequently worked for 13 years as a Senior Investigator. Dr. Schwartzentruber's research on the role of vaccines in the treatment of malignant melanoma, has gained both national and international attention. He serves on the editorial board for the American Journal of Oncology Review and the Journal of Translational Medicine."
half-full you've definitely outdone yourself with that one ;)
i definitely agree with that grandma.
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Cannonball, in my opinion a PMA would be the best route to take, unless they do a 510k AND compile some real data.
Regulatory Strategy...I just posted this link again on RB and wanted to make sure everybody here has read it:
hxxp://tinyurl.com/9z3n7
- it outlines the differences between 510k and PMA regulatory paths. abbott will eventually be making a decision about which route to go. BOCX has said they expect 510k clearance but based on my conversations with them they have NO CLUE what ABT's regulatory strategy will be (and that is by design, of course).
Even though the share price is not reacting, that is a fantastic bit of news. We are sewing the seeds.
In other words today's move was 100% related to the Green Baron Report. I'd rather move on real news but exposure is a big missing link here so I guess it's equally important.
Guys...the 10-k was filed months ago, and I believe today's release was just a slightly modified version. Not sure what they modified though...can anybody help me out there?
LT couldn't agree with you more, but I would not vote for any offer that is under $200 mil just because I believe in the ten commandments (thou shalt not steal!). Abbott Diag has paid much more than that for products with far less the potential.
Having a large & functional message board(s) will be extremely important if this decision ever comes before us.
Let's not forget what this is all about:
FWIW I just posted this on RB and thought I'd post it here, since it's easy to lose sight as this stock slumbers.
The big question -- in fact the only question -- for BOCX longs is whether or not our spectacular data will hold up to more rigorous testing. It is the *only* question -- PERIOD. It makes no difference when we commercialize, who our other partners are, etc. If our data can be replicated in "official" trials this one investment will be, as the expression goes, worth a lifetime of work.
The assumption for longs -- myself included -- has been that the data will in fact hold up because Abbott underwent their own blind sample verification process for months. Longs are essentially trusting Abbott's internal verification process, while the nay-sayers are betting against that same process by that same Fortune 50 company. Pretty funny if you think about it.
Clearly there is no guarantee that ABT's blind sample verification process is bulletproof, but I have had extensive conversations with several people at the research center, and am convinced that the process was quite thorough. Remember, these are the peons on the ground who actually tested the encoded samples provided by Abbott -- not senior management or IR or Aurelius.
Moreover, Abbott Diagnostics is not like Microsoft and other companies who go around signing licensing agreements for every little product out there. Abbott Diagnostics has very few collaborations, and all of them are geared toward major unmet needs. In other words -- they don't f**k around with tiny niche products. Go look on their archives for yourself if you don't believe me. We are amongst an elite few at Abbott.
Ok so when the hell do we get to see some conclusive data rather than "preliminary" data? Probably sometime in 2006. Fortunately, though, there are many milestones to achieve along the way that could boost the share price...but nothing will compare to the day we are told that RECAF achieved 90%+ sens/spec in a large official trial sponsored by Abbott. That is the day that this stock enters the stratosphere (10, 20, 30, 40 you name it we got it).
And by the way nothing about this is new. Biotech stocks have always been made or broken on the very DAY that they release "pivotal" data. The other mover & shaker for small biotechs is the day they announce a major partnership, but the stock unfortunately could not take advantage of that event because there was excess supply left over from the SEC crash, and inadequate demand due to the fact that we're on the pinks and thus have next to zero institutional exposure.
longterm, I appreciate the good Dr's words as well and cancer has touched my life very deeply (like yours), so I'm on the same page as him.
I hate to be crass, but if he really believes those words, he would likely sell BOCX to a major pharma if he ever got a chance. Ie; he wouldn't mind diluting the monetary return in exchange for greatly enhancing his available resources and chances of success. And remember Abbott Diagnostics has a pattern of acquiring their licensors (I've pointed out a few examples here).
jazz: it makes me happy to see companies that are much less further along in development being awarded much higher market caps.
A lot of things could do it but it doesn't seem like any big news is around the corner given the lack of volume.
shag: it's wrong ;)
ILGN just relisted on OTC-BB and rose 15%. More interestingly, they were very public about their relisting process. I wish BOCX would do the same. Take a look at the past few months P.R's for ILGN and you will see what I mean.
i think so. i'm still showing bocx on the pinks. where are you getting that quote?
Last year we filed our quarterly on July 14th. Hopefully it'll be around then this year. If you remember, the company made the Abbott announcement one day before the 10-K was filed. Obviously they did that so they didn't have to file an 8-k (ie two birds with one stone). Let's hope we hear something good on or before their upcoming 10-q.
foam: and if they really did have a knockout cancer marker, do you think they would be targeting the canine market? LMAO!!! Their website cracked me up...all this talk of a "proven" cancer marker that can be used across all types of cancer, then you go to the data section on their website and get 1 s**t cancer study among 70 dogs or so. What a bunch of jokers. The reason they don't have the UT Anderson papers on the marker's human studies up on their website is because the data sucks. I've seen them on pubmed...go take a look. The papers are ancient and the data sucks, which is why they stopped pursuing the marker before XPNG came along and "licensed" it for nothing.
sailgulf: I made some lengthy posts on the XPNG board here on ihub regarding what a scam XPNG is. You can look for them over there if you're concerned. I've spent at least 8 hours looking into that company, and believe me it is a total joke.
Here's to a fantastic first half! Our share price rose 67% from $0.60 to $1. We now have a licensing deal with one of the largest companies in the world. My gut tells me the second half of the year will be just as good if not better.
half-full: no.